A final New York Times/Siena survey shows Republican candidates attracting more voters who made their decisions in the past month, even as Democrats retain polling advantages across seven battleground states that could determine control of the Senate.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
WASHINGTON — Republican Senate candidates hold a nine-percentage-point advantage among voters who decided which party to support within the past month, according to new polling released Sunday, Nov. 1, suggesting a potential late-campaign shift as Americans prepare to vote in Tuesday’s midterm elections.
The finding emerged from the final New York Times/Siena University surveys of seven competitive Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Although Democratic candidates led in all seven surveys, several contests remained close enough that changes in turnout or voter preferences could affect the results.
The New York Times/Siena survey and accompanying cross-tabulations showed that voters who settled on a candidate within the previous month favored Republicans by nine percentage points, contrasting with the broader Democratic advantage in the surveyed states.
The finding is significant because late-deciding voters can influence closely contested elections, particularly when the difference between candidates is only a few percentage points.
However, the nine-point Republican advantage applies specifically to the subgroup of recent deciders. It does not mean Republican candidates lead the overall electorate or that every battleground state has experienced an equivalent shift.
The polling was conducted from Oct. 23 through Nov. 1 among 5,708 likely voters across the seven states.
According to the Siena Research Institute’s official release, Democratic candidates held leads ranging from one percentage point in Iowa to 11 percentage points in Michigan.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed led Republican Mike Rogers 53% to 42% in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.
In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico led Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50% to 43%, a seven-point advantage in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988.
Maine’s Democratic challenger Troy Jackson led Republican Sen. Susan Collins 51% to 45%, while former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown held a 49% to 44% advantage over Republican Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio.
Kansas also showed a five-point Democratic advantage, with Adam Hamilton polling at 49% against Republican Sen. Roger Marshall’s 44%.
The closest results came from Alaska and Iowa.
In Alaska, former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola led Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 48% to 46%.
In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek held a narrow 48% to 47% advantage over Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, leaving the race effectively tied.
The margins of sampling error varied by state, ranging from approximately 3.4 percentage points in Texas to 5 points in Alaska.
That uncertainty is especially important in Iowa and Alaska, where the differences between candidates were smaller than the surveys’ margins of error.
Even in states where Democrats held larger leads, sampling uncertainty and potential errors in turnout modeling could affect the accuracy of the findings.
Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute, emphasized that the final surveys showed considerable Democratic strength but did not establish how the elections would end.
“Our final U.S. Senate polls show Democrats with leads of 5 to 11 points in Kansas (5), Ohio (5), Maine (6), Texas (7), and Michigan (11),” Levy said.
“In Alaska Peltola (D) leads Sullivan (R) by 2 points and Iowa is virtually tied. Now, it’s time for all votes to be cast and the counts to speak louder than the polls.”
Levy added that uncertainty in the closest contests left more than one possible outcome for Senate control.
The surveys also found Democratic candidates improving their positions in six of the seven states compared with New York Times/Siena polling conducted in September.
Alaska was the only state where the Democratic candidate did not improve relative to the earlier survey.
Those findings provide important context for the Republican advantage among late-deciding voters.
While the recent-decider subgroup favored Republicans, the full survey results still showed Democratic candidates performing better than they had in previous polling in most of the battleground states.
According to Fox News’ analysis of the final surveys, Democratic candidates also led among independent voters in all seven states.
The surveys found a nine-point Democratic advantage when voters were asked which party they trusted more to address the cost of living.
Democratic Senate candidates led on that issue in every state surveyed.
The findings suggest that economic concerns remain central to the election, even as Republican candidates seek to attract voters who are making their decisions shortly before Election Day.
The final surveys also measured public assessments of President Donald Trump’s performance.
Across the seven states, approximately 38% of likely voters approved of his job performance, reflecting dissatisfaction among some voters in states that supported him during the 2024 presidential election.
Republicans have focused their closing campaign arguments on immigration enforcement, economic growth, tax policy, public safety and the administration’s legislative priorities.
Democrats have emphasized household expenses, health care, federal spending and congressional oversight of the White House.
The parties have also disagreed over foreign policy, including American involvement in the Middle East and the administration’s handling of international conflicts.
Those issues may influence voters differently depending on geography, demographics and individual candidates.
The late-decider figures are particularly relevant because the Senate battlegrounds include several states with long histories of Republican electoral success.
Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932, while Texas has not done so since 1988.
Republicans have also maintained substantial support in Iowa, Ohio and Alaska during recent presidential elections.
Democratic candidates’ polling advantages in those states have attracted attention because they differ from their historical voting patterns.
Nevertheless, previous election cycles demonstrate that polls can underestimate Republican candidates, even when surveys consistently show Democratic leads.
One prominent example occurred in Maine in 2020.
Collins trailed Democratic challenger Sara Gideon in numerous pre-election surveys but ultimately won reelection by approximately nine percentage points.
The discrepancy has become an important reference point for analysts assessing polling in her current race.
Polling also underestimated Trump’s support in several states during the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.
In both cycles, some surveys failed to capture the full extent of Republican turnout or support among particular voter groups.
Conversely, the 2022 midterm elections demonstrated that polling errors and election surprises do not always benefit Republicans.
Democrats performed better than many late-campaign expectations, retaining the Senate and limiting Republican gains in the House.
The historical record underscores why polling results should be interpreted as estimates rather than definitive predictions.
The nine-point Republican advantage among late-deciding voters offers information about one segment of the electorate, but the eventual outcome will depend on how all voters participate.
The size of the subgroup also matters.
A nine-point advantage among a relatively small number of recent deciders may have less effect on the final result than a smaller advantage among voters who settled on their choices earlier.
Additionally, the reported figure combines respondents across seven states with different candidates, electoral histories and political conditions.
It does not necessarily mean Republican candidates gained nine points in each individual contest.
The distinction is important when interpreting the surveys as evidence of a possible late shift toward Republican candidates.
The polling comes as both parties compete for control of a Senate currently divided 53-47 in Republicans’ favor, including two independents who caucus with Democrats.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a 51-seat majority.
The seven states surveyed include five Republican-held seats where Democrats led in the polls, another competitive Republican-held seat in Iowa and a Democratic-held seat in Michigan.
The results of those contests could have substantial consequences for the balance of power in Washington.
Control of the Senate determines which party leads committees, sets the chamber’s legislative agenda and oversees the confirmation of federal judges and senior administration officials.
A Republican majority would allow the party to continue supporting Trump’s nominees and legislative priorities.
A Democratic majority would change committee leadership and give Democrats greater influence over confirmations, spending negotiations and congressional oversight.
The outcome will also affect how the White House approaches negotiations during the final two years of Trump’s presidency.
With all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats on Tuesday’s ballot, both chambers could experience changes in party control.
The election’s significance extends beyond individual campaigns because the Senate and House must work together to approve legislation and federal spending.
The final New York Times/Siena surveys illustrate an electoral environment containing competing signals.
Democrats led across the seven surveyed states and performed well among independent voters and respondents concerned about the cost of living.
Republicans, meanwhile, held an advantage among voters who had only recently decided which candidates to support, while several Senate races remained close.
As the Washington Examiner reported in its examination of the late-decider finding, the contrast between Democratic leads in the overall surveys and Republican strength among recent deciders has become an important element of the final pre-election polling picture.
Those results do not establish that Republicans will overcome the Democratic advantages, but they identify a potential source of uncertainty in races decided by narrow margins.
Turnout remains another major variable.
Surveys of likely voters rely on models estimating which registered voters will actually participate.
Those models can miss unexpected enthusiasm or changes in participation among younger voters, independents, infrequent voters and people who prefer voting on Election Day.
Differences between early voting and Election Day participation can also affect how results develop as ballots are counted.
An apparent lead when one category of ballots is first reported may change as additional votes are tabulated.
Election officials have emphasized that final outcomes depend on properly counted ballots, not the order in which unofficial totals become available.
For Republicans, the late-decider finding provides evidence that voters making choices in the final month were more inclined to support GOP candidates across the surveyed battlegrounds.
For Democrats, the broader results show continued advantages in voter preferences and improvements over September polling in most of the states examined.
Neither finding guarantees the outcome.
As Americans prepare to vote Tuesday, the final polling presents a closely watched test of whether late-breaking Republican support, Democratic advantages among independents and the electorate’s economic concerns will translate into results consistent with the surveys.
The answer will come from actual vote totals as states count and certify ballots, rather than from polling conducted before Election Day.
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