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(The Center Square) – Control of Congress is at stake in Tuesday’s midterm elections, with Democrats seeking to overturn Republican majorities in both the U.S. House and Senate.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot Tuesday, along with 35 Senate seats, including two special elections.
Historically, the president’s party tends to lose congressional seats in midterm elections, although that pattern has been considerably more consistent in the House than in the Senate.
A Brookings analysis found that House outcomes are closely linked to a president’s approval rating, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating sank to a second-term low in October, registering in the low 30s with several major polls.
Senate elections are typically harder to predict, but forecasters have identified a group of closely contested races that will likely determine control of the chamber.
After the battle for the Senate was widely considered a toss-up in September, election forecasters began shifting their assessments toward Democrats in October, with several identifying a narrow Democratic advantage heading into Election Day.
Seven states that could determine control of the Senate
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates seven Senate races as toss-ups, including six Republican-held seats in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas, and one Democratic-held seat in Michigan.
Another election forecaster, Decision Desk HQ, gives Democrats a substantial advantage in Michigan.
Alaska
Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is seeking a third term against Democrat Mary Peltola, a former U.S. representative who became the first Alaska Native elected to Congress.
The race drew controversy in late October after reporting revealed efforts by Democratic-aligned operatives to recruit another candidate named Dan Sullivan.
Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, which could complicate the outcome. Both the New York Times/Siena poll and RealClearPolling’s average show a close race, with Peltola leading by two percentage points and one point, respectively.
Iowa
Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson faces Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist, has campaigned on a populist economic message, while Hinson has emphasized her congressional experience and support from President Donald Trump.
The race is virtually tied in both polling measures, with Turek leading by one point in the Times/Siena poll and Hinson ahead by half a point in RealClearPolling’s average.
Kansas
Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton, a prominent Methodist pastor, in a state that has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1932.
Hamilton has emphasized his moderate positions, while agricultural concerns over fuel and fertilizer costs have complicated Marshall’s reelection campaign.
The Times/Siena poll showed Hamilton leading by five points, while RealClearPolling’s average gave him a 3.6-point advantage.
Maine
Republican Sen. Susan Collins, seeking a sixth term, faces Democrat Troy Jackson, a former state Senate president and logger.
Collins has emphasized her independent reputation and federal funding secured for Maine, while Jackson has sought to tie her to Trump’s economic policies.
Collins is the only Republican incumbent seeking reelection in a state that typically votes Democratic in presidential elections. Jackson led by six points in the Times/Siena poll and 2.8 points in RealClearPolling’s average.
Ohio
Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in a special election for the seat formerly held by Vice President JD Vance.
Brown, who lost his reelection bid for Ohio’s other Senate seat in 2024, is seeking a return to Washington. His campaign has attacked Husted over the FirstEnergy corruption scandal and data center development, while Husted has emphasized Brown’s lengthy political career.
Brown led by five points in the Times/Siena poll and 2.8 points in RealClearPolling’s average.
Texas
Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico after defeating longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn in a May primary runoff.
The contest has drawn national attention as Democrats seek their first Texas Senate victory since 1988.
Paxton’s primary victory reshaped the race, while Talarico has campaigned on economic concerns and his Christian faith.
Talarico led by seven points in the Times/Siena poll, compared with 2.6 points in RealClearPolling’s average.
Michigan
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official, faces former Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.
The race was shaken Sunday when Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens, whom El-Sayed narrowly defeated in the August primary, endorsed Rogers following months of intraparty tensions. Despite that development, the Times/Siena poll showed El-Sayed leading by 11 points, while RealClearPolling’s average gave him a five-point advantage.
Decision Desk HQ separately rates the race Likely Democratic.
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