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(The Center Square) – Polls are beginning to close and ballot counting is underway, setting the stage for a nailbiter election night for U.S. House Republicans.
All 435 House seats are up for reelection. Prior to election day, Republicans held a razor-thin majority in the House with 218 seats and another seat held by an independent caucusing with Republicans.
With two vacancies, and the remaining 214 seats belonging to Democrats, Democrats need to pick up four additional seats in order to flip the chamber.
Though Vice President J.D. Vance and other officials had projected confidence that Republicans could keep the House, poll analysts predict Democrats will flip the lower chamber of Congress.
For months, polls have favored Democrats as American voters struggle with rising costs of gas and groceries that are largely due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and nearly all other House Republicans have shied away from challenging the administration’s unauthorized and ongoing conflict. That’s despite almost two-thirds of Americans disapproving of how Trump is handling Iran, according to current Real Clear Polling averages.
Republicans have mostly leaned on the sweeping income tax cuts and domestic manufacturing rebates within their signature “One Big Beautiful Bill” as evidence of addressing voters’ affordability concerns.
They have also highlighted some bills cracking down on migrant crime – a top concern for voters during the 2024 presidential race – as well as efforts to root out waste, fraud and abuse in government programs.
Yet polls show that those accomplishments haven’t swayed many voters, and Democrats in the meantime have hammered Republicans over cost of living via election campaign messages.
Democrats have also blamed their opponents for rising healthcare plan costs, which they claim are due to Republicans’ refusal to renew the expansion of certain Obamacare subsidies. The Premium Tax Credit, temporarily boosted during the COVID-19 pandemic, reverted to original levels last year after a grueling government shutdown, where Democrats refused to fund the government for 43 days over demands that Republicans renew the sunsetting pandemic extension.
That shutdown and subsequent Democrat-triggered shutdowns, paired with Republican infighting in both the House and Senate over the past 18 months, has led to legislative backlogs in the House of critical policy issues.
Having spent a meager 72 days in session during the past year, House lawmakers have repeatedly punted the deadlines for the annual government funding process, an overdue transportation infrastructure spending bill, government spy authority reauthorization and other major issues.
Republicans also have historical precedent batting against them. Historically, the party of the sitting president performs poorly in the midterm elections, almost always taking a net loss in the House of Representatives.
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