Research examining more than three decades of FBI homicide statistics found that rifles account for a smaller share of firearm murders despite substantial growth in the number of AR-15s and AK-47s in circulation.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
A new analysis from the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) shows that the proportion of firearm murders involving rifles has declined over the past three decades, even as the estimated number of AR-15s and AK-47s in the United States increased approximately tenfold following the expiration of the federal assault weapons ban in 2004.
The research published Nov. 4 examined FBI Uniform Crime Reporting statistics from 1991 through 2025, comparing rifle-related homicides with the increasing availability of semiautomatic rifles. According to the analysis, the share of firearm murders committed with rifles averaged 4.8% before the federal ban took effect in September 1994, compared with 4.9% during the ban and 3.6% following its expiration.
The organization also reported that rifles accounted for 2.67% of firearm murders in 2025, down from 4.8% in 1994. Meanwhile, the estimated number of AR-15s and AK-47s increased from approximately one rifle per 100 Americans at the end of the federal ban to 10.2 per 100 residents in 2025.
Those figures represent roughly a tenfold increase in the estimated prevalence of the firearms, accompanied by a substantial decline in rifles’ share of firearm homicides. The ownership figures measure estimated firearms per capita rather than the percentage of Americans who personally own those weapons.
The study examined the period surrounding the federal Public Safety and Recreational Firearms Use Protection Act, commonly known as the federal assault weapons ban. Enacted in September 1994, the law restricted the manufacture and transfer of certain semiautomatic firearms and large-capacity ammunition magazines for civilian use, while generally exempting weapons lawfully possessed before its enactment.
The restrictions expired in September 2004 after Congress did not renew the legislation.
According to CPRC’s calculations, the average proportion of firearm murders involving rifles remained nearly unchanged while the ban was in effect. The figure subsequently declined, averaging 3.86% during the first 10 years after the restrictions expired.
The organization reported that the difference between the average rifle murder share during the ban and the period following its expiration was statistically significant, based on a two-tailed statistical test. It found no statistically significant difference between the periods immediately preceding and during the federal ban.
The study also examined rifles as a share of all murders, rather than only firearm murders, and reported a similar downward pattern.
CPRC’s findings distinguish rifles as a broad firearm category from specific semiautomatic models. FBI homicide classifications include all types of rifles, not exclusively AR-15s and AK-47s. Consequently, the figures cannot independently establish how many murders involved those particular firearms.
The results also measure the percentage of murders committed with rifles rather than the absolute number of rifle homicides or the population-adjusted rifle homicide rate. Changes in the total number of murders, including those involving other weapons, can influence the percentages.
The findings come as federal courts continue examining constitutional challenges to state and local restrictions on semiautomatic firearms, including laws in Connecticut and Cook County, Illinois. The legal disputes concern the extent to which governments may restrict firearms commonly described in legislation as assault weapons.
Separately, the FBI’s 2025 national crime statistics, released Aug. 14, showed an estimated 18.1% decline in murder and nonnegligent manslaughter offenses from 2024. The agency reported a national murder rate of 4.1 per 100,000 residents, tying the rates recorded in 1955 and 1956.
The broader decline in homicide provides additional context for the CPRC analysis, although it does not establish whether changes in firearm ownership or federal restrictions caused the long-term trends.
The research adds historical firearm and homicide data to the ongoing debate over semiautomatic rifle regulations, documenting a period in which the estimated availability of AR-15s and AK-47s increased substantially while rifles represented a declining proportion of firearm murders nationwide.
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