ExclusiveGDP高歌猛進 為何全民體感卻在寒冬 發飆經濟學 誕生 習龍顏大怒後9月救市 背後卻是財政五年首降 假貸款2萬億

Honestly I don't know how many people this year don't even have the money to go home for the New Year and they're drowning in credit card debt and loans I posted about that design company going under 500 square meters and all and suddenly my inbox was flooded with messages from people saying their situations were pretty much the same as mine A buddy of mine in our building materials industry said his store has been around for ten years or so business was decent at first but then he kept running into trouble for those three years Those three years weren't the worst he said after those years he believed the iron company was finally seeing light at the end of the tunnel But he pointed out that the company had already begun experiencing minor losses during those three years After surviving those three years the situation turned into major losses he's been struggling ever since He says when his business was doing well his wife was a devoted and caring homemaker but now that things have gone downhill they argue every single day I was about to file for divorce with so much money involved not making a cent back home my son can't earn anything either I can't rely on him anymore and we can't find any work at all I have nothing to do on the streets every day We are definitely part of the people It's not about what people can do they can't make money back home and even living there doesn't bring in any income Eating is difficult just getting some money is a struggle Can't make any money here If I could earn money why would I go elsewhere My son's right here There's no work to be had He works at the company People with money aren't working now Just don't know if I can make any A man with no money has nothing to do but get by as best he can Uncle business around now how' s it going It's not as good as before Not better than before Now there's nothing going on— nothing at all Nothing's moving at all now Only thing that happened was a smoke issue Now smoke products aren't selling anymore The cigarettes aren't selling anymore—sales have dropped drastically But when you say you're cutting prices you mean your business has shrunk by at least two-thirds Yes that's right—this is at least two-thirds smaller than usual By this time of year business used to pick up during the Lunar New Year celebrations but not anymore —things are different now Even if there were good times before they’ re gone These days no one’s working and there’s no money Those who have money aren’t willing to work I just don't know if I can make any money—people with no money have nothing to do they just drift through life and it's not working out In supermarkets even in larger ones those that aren't run well end up losing money Hello everyone I'm Qin Yue Welcome to Silence Finance China's economy continues to create miracles GDP growth rate consistently maintains 5% under official statistics Global carbon emissions have been brought under control Official data underscores confidence Yet people's lived experience feels like lingering snow and a bitter winter This stark contrast between extremes—this ice and fire—according to the CCP is not economic opacity but developmental tension not systemic breakdown but institutional advantage The export-driven trio of economic engines ranks first Cai Qi's optimistic outlook on economic prosperity ranks first as well furthermore the direct deployment and personal outrage from Party leader Xi Jinping Providing clear direction for economic development Economic recovery Steady improvement The erratic economics of a reckless ruler A powerhouse engine Highest contribution rate Giving one's all to the end Indispensable to success According to a recent disclosure by The Wall Street Journal Xi Jinping stated in 2020 that China would double its economic output and per capita income by 2035 Achieving the above goal requires China to maintain an average annual growth rate of approximately 4.7% to 5% leaving little room for error making the importance of meeting this target especially critical by the end of 2024 Reaching its peak provincial data remained weak for months consumer spending remained sluggish housing prices plummeted the middle class declined the country might fail to meet its 5% growth target that year this failure It would be seen as directly conflicting with the 2035 vision When the raw data reached Zhongnanhai Xi Jinping flew into a rage The result was the September surprise descending A sudden wave of stimulus measures—interest rate cuts and stock market rescue actions—came amid Xi Jinping's consolidation of absolute power yet nearly the entire bureaucracy was largely fabricating lies to deceive him Good news never bad — cater to their preferences — within the local officials' silence mechanism — local GDP has become a pivotal factor — under the CCP's political ecosystem — Xi Jinping's fury A powerful warning sign of an impending political shake-up Numbers dictate appointments Officials produce numbers The importance of data Can be directly equated with one's official hat Local officials deeply versed in the politics of bureaucracy could never fail to understand this point so fabricating economic data has long become their go-to strategy for achieving political accomplishments Even the export figures that the CCP takes pride in are concocted by local bureaucratic elites as reported by First Financial News late last year highlighting developments over recent years Multiple instances of fraudulent export transactions have emerged across the country involving fraud cases facilitated under the tacit approval—or even direct orchestration—by local officials with numerous shell companies purchasing export data from reporting intermediaries all orchestrated by local governments According to customs data returned rewards were distributed to drive export growth in the region yet the CCP's economy continues to decline with weak consumption directly reflected in financial figures To fix this data flaw the CCP 's financial system resorted to creating fake loans new loan officers sought out a specific company to meet loan targets with interest paid by the bank itself—such a massive state-owned bank Even copied the tactic of online shopping order padding According to Caixin com second half of 2025 the CCP central bank began inspecting statistical data submitted by financial institutions One of China's three policy banks the Agricultural Development Bank was found to have overstated agricultural-related loans by approximately 2 trillion yuan this fictitious loan amou It accounted for a full 25% of the Agricultural Development Bank 's total agricultural-related loans prompting Xi Jinping to erupt in anger leading to the arrest of Wu Biao the former director of the bank's Policy Research Office on the evening of February 7 The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection announced that Xu Yiding a member of the Party Committee and vice president of the Agricultural Development Bank is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law whether linked to fake loans remains unknown But inflated financial data may well be a routine part of financial executives ’ KPI fulfillment what’s intriguing is that as mentioned in the Wall Street Journal when the original data reaches Zhongnanhai What exactly are the original data in question Do local officials really maintain two separate data information systems—one for genuine reliable objective economic figures and another for fabricated data derived from paper-based algorithmic calculations Those familiar with the internal operating procedures of the CCP system would never naively assume that so-called raw data is anything but already polished by local officials Economic indicators show the following data Upon seeing this data Xi Jinping could no longer bear it His face turned furious This reveals just how dire the actual economic conditions of the CCP have become Official 2025 GDP figures as desired by Xi Jinping meet the set target of 5% growth—but fabricated numbers cannot withstand scrutiny as evidenced by the National Bureau of Statistics' GDP data Had their claims contradicted by Ministry of Finance revenue data January 30 The Ministry of Finance released 2025 fiscal revenue figures showing a full-year decline of 1.7% This marks the first year in five with negative growth in fiscal revenue with the central level experiencing a more pronounced decline down 6.5 percent year-on-year Over the past decade With the exception of 2020 when economic activity halted due to the COVID-19 pandemic central government revenue has almost always seen positive growth—a highly unusual trend that clearly illustrates February 5 BBC Chinese website published an article analyzing three counterintuitive phenomena in the CCP 's fiscal revenue and expenditure data from last year The article points out the first counterintuitive finding is a significant drop in non-tax revenue The main reason for the decline in central government revenue is the 11.3% drop in non-tax revenue with the CCP's official explanation being that from 2022 to 2024 the CCP instructed the central bank to China National Tobacco Corporation China Investment Co Ltd and other specific state-owned financial and monopoly institutions remitting profits to the treasury have raised the base for non-tax revenue Due to several years of repeated blood draws the aforementioned organization itself became anemic resulting in a lack of similar reserve deposits in 2025 thus causing a significant decline in non-tax revenue But Nomura Securities' chief China economist Lu Ting pointed out that this explanation fails to account for all the facts as data shows the December decline was evident in both tax and non-tax revenues A decline in tax revenue directly points to falling corporate profits and reduced transaction activity in other words the overall drop in fiscal revenue results from both sluggish tax growth and a significant decrease in non-tax revenue Counterintuitive data two Total tax revenue rose slightly but individual income tax surged 11.5% national tax revenue increased by just 0.8% in 2025 Yet individual income tax rose by 11.5% year-on-year— reflecting a widespread public perception that incomes are declining a clear signal that personal income tax growth far outpaces GDP growth during the same period The article subtly suggests that the more significant reason is the increased enforcement intensity which translated into internet slang means the CCP has ramped up the density of its "pig-butchering " operations targeting high-net-worth individuals First of all 2025 has been dubbed the Year of Global Taxation by many high-net-worth individuals The CRS Global Information Exchange Network spans over 150 countries and territories Automatic reporting of overseas financial assets returning to China has led to a large volume of previously hidden overseas income being forced into the open and subject to back taxes Secondly tax-related information from China's internet platforms in 2025 First full-scale submission to tax authorities completed E-commerce live streaming sales and related sectors fully brought under regulation A wave of back-tax payments expected by year-end By the end of November 2025 the State Taxation Administration had reported and dealt with 1 818 high-income individuals including celebrities and internet influencers High-net-worth individuals pay additional taxes Ironically in contrast to the growth of individual income tax domestic value-added tax closely tied to business operations rose only 3.4% while corporate profits tax increased by a mere 1% This is the true indicator reflecting the current state of economic health Counterintuitive Data Three Local government revenues rising Yet land finance is collapsing The article states that the third counterintuitive data point is the most misleading Local general public budget revenue at the local level rose 2.4% year-on-year—better even than the central government's negative growth—yet this figure masks the reality that land finance has already collapsed National state-owned land use rights transfer revenue in 2025 reached only 4.15 trillion yuan a 14.7% decrease year-on-year if viewed over a longer time frame This figure has been cut in half compared to the historical peak of 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021 Over the past 20 years land finance has been the core driver sustaining local government operations This cycle once kept local governments running smoothly but when the real estate market plunged deeply the path became unsustainable and the foundation of local finances began to weaken Where did the 2.4% growth in general public budget revenue in that region come from Article analysis reveals that over the past year more cities have pushed public resources toward the market —not just traditional idle office buildings being auctioned off Including the operating rights of government canteens the concessionary operating rights for urban roadside parking spaces and even long-term revenue rights for certain scenic areas the revenue generated from these assets is counted as non-tax income helping to fill the financial gap Don't you remember that famous case in Qiqihar 2025 A pile of sludge in the upstream reservoir and the transboundary reservoir in Yian County Northeast Qiqihar The government passed the money from one hand to the other and sold it for 800 million with the final bad debts ending up on bank books while ordinary citizens footed the bill—this so-called revitalization of state-owned assets It's basically just silver consuming grain rations— Hubei even came up with something called the capital operation model where all state-owned assets are progressively assetized securitized and leveraged The CCP government continues to legitimize financial speculation while indulging in extravagance it preaches austerity while tightening the belt on ordinary people The ultimate solution to the CCP government's debt is essentially printing money and raising taxes—everyone rich and poor gets pulled into the same downward spiral of shared poverty That's it for this episode Welcome everyone to subscribe and like