NÓNG: VÌ SAO CHIẾN TRANH CÓ NGUY CƠ BÙNG NỔ NGAY TRƯỚC CỬA NHÀ TRUNG QUỐC?

Ladies and gentlemen as the entire world watches the situation in the Middle East in Iran by March 12 the Yellow Sea region the body of water between China and the Korean Peninsula It is once again becoming a quiet military flashpoint in Northeast Asia No major battles took place but there was intense military activity by the major powers dicating that this region remains a testing ground for strategic maneuvers among global powers First we must address the joint military exercise currently taking place between the United States and South Korea The exercise named Freedom Shield lasted from early March and involved tens of thousands of troops The exercise activities took place across multiple fronts from infantry on land to naval forces at sea up to fighter aircraft in the sky A significant portion of these maritime incidents occur right in the western waters of the Korean Peninsula that is the Yellow Sea Formally Washington and Seoul stated that these are merely defensive military exercises o enhance military interoperability but North Korea views it entirely differently They regard such exercises as a rehearsal for war preparing for conflict e potential for future attacks against North Korea Therefore Pyongyang has continuously issued Strong warnings even threats of military response were issued if tensions continue to escalate The river makes the situation in the Yellow Sea even more sensitive It is not confined merely to the Korean Peninsula but also lies in the increasingly evident presence the same military airspace region of China and the United States In recent months there have been several notably tense aerial confrontations U S fighter jets conducting training flights over the Yellow Sea were intercepted by Chinese fighter jets Keep close surveillance and maintain tight tracking Such encounters typically occur at very close range Even a minor error a single miscalculation could lead to an aerial collision—something both sides are keen to avoid That tension stems from the Huanghai's uniquely strategic location We know this is the most sensitive sea area for Beijing Unlike the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait which still have a considerable geographical distance Hoang Hai lies directly along China's northeastern coastal region From this maritime region vital centers of China can be reached with exceptional speed such as Tianjin Qingdao and even areas near Beijing Thus in China's military thinking the South China Sea is nearly akin to the front yard of a house a place where any foreign military activity is immediately closely monitored For China this maritime region is nearly Beijing's forward defensive line From the Yellow Sea to China's capital is just a few hundred kilometers If an opposing naval force operates freely here They can get very close to China's most important political and industrial centers As a result Beijing is increasingly strengthening its presence in this maritime region Not only warships but also coast guard vessels and maritime surveillance craft are appearing with greater frequency Some analysts believe China is pursuing a strategy of gradually expanding its influence meaning control is not seized through a single major action but gradually expanded through routine maritime activities On the other side the United States has not reduced its activities either American military forces in South Korea regularly conduct patrol flights and training exercises over the Yellow Sea This is part of the broader strategy to maintain the United States' military presence in Northeast Asia ensuring security for South Korea and Japan Thus on the surface Hoàng Hải still appeared quite calm with no gunfire or warships engaged in battle But if you look deeper into the military activities currently unfolding we can see that this area is becoming a sensitive contact point among three major forces It's China the United States and the U S -South Korea alliance while North Korea remains a consistently unpredictable factor What is noteworthy is that Hoang Hai is often seldom mentioned in discussions about Asian security The world's attention is typically focused on the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait However for China the South China Sea holds far greater existential significance As we've already analyzed this is the region closest to the heart of their power And any strong military presence by the United States here would particularly alarm Beijing Both sides closely watched each other's movements testing reactions yet deliberately kept everything below the threshold of conflict It is a unique aspect of U S -China relations Competing and struggling at times yet also cooperating and keeping things from getting too tense Looking only at Huang Hai doesn't reveal the full extent of the pressure China is facing when viewed broadly across the entire chain of islands extending eastward from the Korean Peninsula From Japan all the way to Taiwan one will see a larger picture gradually taking shape Especially the upcoming event involving Japan's deployment of the upgraded Type 12 missile with a range of about 1 000 km targeting Kyushu Island It is a crucial piece in that larger picture Kyushu is located in southwest Japan facing the East China Sea and situated relatively close to the Ryukyu Islands When deploying long-range missile systems here Tokyo would not only protect its own territory but also create the capability for long-range preemptive strikes against the opponent's military targets should a major conflict erupt in the region To put it simply Japan previously mainly played a defensive role meaning focusing on defending the territory if attacked But with these new missile systems having such long ranges Japan is gradually developing the capability to launch preemptive long-range strikes That means in the context of warfare enemy bases warships or military installations It will become a target from the very beginning And this has brought about a highly distinctive shift in Japan's defense thinking It could be seen as a significant step forward And when we connect this to the complex situation in the Yellow Sea we see a very noteworthy reality tha China is facing military pressure from multiple directions along the eastern island chain To the north we know that the Yellow Sea has witnessed intense military activity by the United States and South Korea Meanwhile in the east Japan is enhancing its military capabilities and expanding its long-range strike capacity And deploying missiles in Kyushu shows that Togo is no longer merely standing behind the United States but rather seeks to become a more proactive military force in the region To the south lies the Taiwan Strait a persistent thorn in Beijing's side It remains the most likely flashpoint for conflict perhaps even the place where war could erupt most easily This is a region China has always regarded as vital to its core interests yet one that the United States and its allies are increasingly focusing on When viewed on a map this entire region forms a continuous chain of islands stretching from Korea through Japan and Okinawa all the way to Taiwan And strategists often refer to this as the first island chain a geographic belt capable of constraining the Chinese Navy's expansion into the Pacific Ocean Therefore what is happening is not a series of isolated events Military exercises in the Yellow Sea Japan deploying long-range missiles in Kyushu All the tensions surrounding Taiwan are part of a larger strategic picture And from Beijing's perspective what worries them is not just a military exercise It's a new missile system and it gives the feeling that the security environment around them is growing increasingly suffocating tightening with each passing day Those previously relatively quiet areas are now becoming sites of frequent military activity by numerous countries And metaphorically speaking if China's territory is viewed as a large house The Yellow Sea region is the front gate while the chain of islands stretching through Japan and Taiwan acts like an outer barrier And when both the front door and the fence were suddenly swarming with more military personnel than before the feeling of being surrounded became almost inescapable Thus when we consider Japan's development of long-range missiles against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Yellow Sea The actual picture now emerges with remarkable clarity Strategic competition in East Asia is entering a more relaxed phase where many countries are not only preparing for defense but also building the capability to deter and strike back And that also explains why every military move in the region Whether it's a military exercise or a new missile system it's closely monitored from afar Because in the current context steps that seem minor yet significa Sometimes it serves as a sign of larger shifts in the region's security balance Now we turn to an issue related to history and geography We know that China's geography has changed many times with the Yellow Sea shifting its course repeatedly creating an opening for the undead forces outside to enter And this is not mere modern strategic speculation It's a historical lesson that has repeated itself many times before Throughout its long history China has always had a geographical paradox This country is vast densely populated and boasts a civilization with a long history Yet most of their major political and economic centers lie near that eastern coastal region This region including Beijing Tianjin Shandong and Shanghai all lie near maritime areas such as the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea And this has helped China develop trade and commerce with the world But at the same time it has also made the region more vulnerable to damage when facing external attacks one might even say it's China's Achilles' heel History has made those lessons abundantly clear to us A prime example is the Opium War of the 19th century When facing the Qing Dynasty the British navy did not choose to launch a deep inland attack into China right from the outset Instead they used their naval superiority to control coastal regions and gradually press toward key economic centers Coastal port cities became the first targets and from there military pressure gradually extended deeper inland Although the Qing Dynasty controlled a vast territory it could not prevent attacks originating from the sea Another more obvious example is the First Sino-Japanese War of 1894 This conflict primarily took place around the Yellow Sea and the Liaodong Peninsula The Japanese navy decisively defeated the Beiyang Fleet a proud but ill-fated force of the Qing Dynasty In the naval battle of Huanghai following this defeat the northeastern gateway of China was nearly wide open The Japanese forces swiftly advanced into the Liaodong Peninsula seizing strategic positions and forcing the Qing court to sign a treaty ceding territory But the story didn't end there In the early 20th century as Japan expanded its influence across East Asia Their major military campaigns also originated from the sea region off the eastern tip of China From the Russo-Japanese War of 1904–1905 to the military campaigns of the 1930s Japan consistently leveraged its naval advantage to control coastal regions then advanced deep into Chinese territory It remained just such a beach according to that long-term strategy of oil warfare The full-scale Sino-Japanese War in 1937 also began in coastal regions and port cities before spreading throughout the entire country And the notable point is that in most of these conflicts China The position cannot be reversed by pushing the opponent out of the eastern sea zone Once an opponent gains control of maritime routes and port cities the strategic balance typically tilts decisively in their favor China could prolong the conflict domestically but it would be extremely difficult to fully regain control over the coastal regions And that remains their greatest strength This is precisely why in Beijing's modern strategic thinking e eastern seas especially the Yellow Sea always carry extremely sensitive connotations It is no longer just an ordinary body of water It is also a historical memory of times when China was attacked from outside From a geographical perspective this is quite understandable To the west of China lie towering mountain ranges and vast deserts forming a natural barrier that is extremely difficult to cross But to the east lies a vast sea Powerful naval forces from outside could approach relatively fast access to China's densely populated eastern coastal regions Therefore in modern strategy China has always sought to push the defensive line farther out to sea which explains its strong emphasis on developing its navy Establishing anti-access systems and strengthening control over surrounding maritime areas But geographical realities are not easily changed Hoang Hai remains firmly positioned near the centers of power in China And as military activities by the United States South Korea or Japan intensify in the region Beijing cannot help but recall the lessons and history From this perspective what is unfolding today From exercises in the Yellow Sea to Japan's deployment of new missiles in Kyushu these are not merely isolated military events They struck at a deep-seated anxiety in Beijing's strategic history The fear that the eastern door of their own position would once again swing wide open becoming a point where the opponent could exploit and exert pressure Some people believe that China is now an international military power Of course an invasion from outside into China will no longer be as easy as it once was Indeed China today is far stronger than any dynasty in its historical past militarily they can offset their vulnerabilities in the Yellow Sea through technology including naval forces missiles air defense and early warning systems But they can't erase the fundamental geographical reality of this region because the essence of the issue isn't whether China is weak or strong The issue lies in their power centers being too close to the coast And from a strategic perspective Beijing has correctly executed three key actions o exploit that historical weakness First they aim to push the defensive line farther from the shore as we've discussed That is why they have built a large navy one that is currently more advanced and developed anti-ship missiles long-range air defense the anti-access and area-denial capabilities that the West often refers to as A2-AD The goal of this approach is to prevent the opponent from getting too close to the Northeast coast and prevent Huang Hai from becoming an easy target for oppression as in previous centuries U S military reports continue to regard the first chain of islands as China's primary military focus And the A2-AD system is Beijing's tool for making its near-sea areas more dangerous to external forces On the other hand China is determined to turn the Bohai and Yellow Seas region into a multi-layered military buffer zone From the perspective of the strategic defensive zone this northern region is directly linked to the mission of safeguarding the maritime approach near Beijing and creating a buffer zone between the capital and the sea while coordinating with air force units The navy and air force would be involved if a crisis were to erupt on the Korean Peninsula or in the northern seas Third China has increased the frequency of military exercises patrols and routine military presence in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea o demonstrate that this area is no longer a strategic vacuum Beijing's frequent announcements of military exercises in this region in recent years dicating that they no longer view it as a quiet rear area but rather as a front line requiring constant preparedness The issue is that being patched up doesn't mean it's fully healed The reason is extremely simple Hoàng Hải remains a relatively enclosed sea area shallow near the coast and adjacent to vital areas of China Beijing can build more radar systems missiles warships and aircraft but they cannot move Beijing itself Tianjin Shandong or the entire eastern political industrial axis extending far toward the sea That's what we refer to as a geographic vulnerability embedded in the very foundation It's also known as the geographic imperative Technology can make it more costly for a rival to intervene but it cannot turn a vulnerable region into one that is invulnerable to attack This is also why Renben the U S and South Korea are all highly sensitive to this region Because they understand this is the place that comes closest touching China's strategic nerve And here is where the crucial point emerges: China's current strength Enough to deter a traditional form of intrusion but not necessarily enough to eliminate concerns about a new kind of warfare Long ago the fear was an enemy fleet arriving bombarding landing and seizing the port Today fear is not just about warships—it's also about long-range missiles all weapons stealth aircraft submarines electronic warfare cyber attacks and the ability to coordinate among the U S Japan and South Korea around the first island chain Japan's deployment of the upgraded Type 12 missile in Kyushu with a range of approximately 1 000 kilometers demonstrating that pressure on China's eastern coast is no longer coming solely from naval forces closing in but also from long-range firepower positioned beyond reach yet still capable of striking This makes China's defense challenge significantly more difficult and far more complex They not only had to prevent the opponent from getting close but also had to cope with the reality that the opponent could now attack from a distance more frequently than before Thus if asked frankly whether China can address its Hainan- related vulnerabilities the most accurate response would be this They could turn this fatal weakness into a harder-to-exploit vulnerability but they couldn't transform it into a genuine strength And this is a crucial distinction: a stronger China could make adversaries think twice before confronting Huang Hai No matter how strong China becomes it still has to live with the reality tha e front door of his home stood wide open leading out to the sea and on the other side of that door lay America China and Japan along with a network of allied bases and military forces are steadily tightening their grip That historical pain of China in the Yellow Sea today hasn't vanished dear listeners—it's simply taken on a different form Once it was the fear of foreign warships Now it's the fear of being locked out right at the front door by a modern network of intimidation And that is China's greatest geographical tragedy: the more affluent and powerful it becomes the more dependent it grows on its eastern maritime frontier yet it is all the more impossible to overlook this weakness that history exposed so early on And if one looks further afield What's unfolding from Iran Venezuela and Cuba all the way to the South China Sea isn't really a series of isolated flashpoints It is a U S -China rivalry unfolding simultaneously across multiple fronts In the Middle East the Trump administration strongly targeted Iran to break a crucial link in the chain within Beijing's network of pressure leveraging energy and strategic transport routes President Trump himself claimed the campaign against Iran had brought Tehran There was almost nothing significant left to attack In Western Hemisphere affairs Washington did not treat the Venezuela issue merely as a regional matter while the U S is clearing its backyard to secure key political and logistical footholds which China has painstakingly built and could leverage within the United States Meanwhile in East Asia the U S -South Korea joint military exercise Freedom Sail took place from March 9 to 19 demonstrating that Washington continues to strengthen its military presence just off the eastern doorstep of China at is the Yellow Sea region and the chain of islands surrounding the Chinese coastline Thus Mr Trump is not targeting individual flashpoints one by one while you're dismantling link by link the strategic framework Beijing needs to expand globally Iran is tied to energy while Cuba and Venezuela are linked to America's backyard in geopolitical terms Huang Hai on the other hand is directly connected to the front door of China And upon closer inspection this remains fundamentally a struggle between two superpowers The United States seeks to control the key corridors of power As for China it wants to keep them open to breathe and to rise That concludes today's program We invite you to share your personal thoughts in the section below Lê Minh says hello and looks forward to seeing you again