BẺ LÁI LẬP TRƯỜNG VỚI IRAN, TRUNG QUỐC NGỒI TRÊN ĐỐNG LỬA VÌ SỨC ÉP CỦA MỸ

Ladies and gentlemen, on March 25, U.S. President Donald Trump made a statement saying that The battle in Iran has ended in victory. Only fake media outlets wish to prolong it. He also stated that there would be no nuclear weapons at all. Iran has agreed to this. We are in a strong negotiating position. We are far ahead of schedule. And they have no navy, air force, or missile defense system. Most of their launch attempts were thwarted by us. On the same day, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Iran to negotiate with the United States. Regarding the cessation of war. Yes, objectively speaking, if one views this conflict in the Middle East merely through the eyes of a news observer If you read the daily news, dear listeners, you'd probably get very easily agitated. Today there are still missiles, tomorrow there may be no airstrikes, the day after that there may still be talks about compromise. And thus concluded that it was not yet possible to say which side had won or lost. But modern warfare doesn't operate that simply. There are still battles with gunfire, but the true situation has already been decided. And there are wars that, from the outside, appear to be between two nations, But the true depth lies in the test of endurance between two much larger power blocs. It's also known as proxy war. And the U.S.-Iran conflict is also gradually unfolding according to that very logic. Formally speaking, we see this as a confrontation between Washington and Tehran. But if one looks deeply into the structure of interests, everyone can see that Iran is fighting not just for itself. Behind them lies an entire chain of interests related to energy and maritime transport. regional impact, and particularly the safety of the economic corridor that China relies on heavily. Therefore, when evaluating President Trump's statements, the question we need to ask here is Who still holds strategic initiative, and who has begun to retreat? And more importantly, what is the reaction of the powerful forces behind Iran revealing? Only when we can answer those questions will we truly understand this issue in its most fundamental way. Then, ladies and gentlemen, battlefield data clearly show a very obvious fact: although Iran has not yet fully collapsed, but has already been knocked out of the initiative. German media reported on March 24 that the United States had promoted a 15-point proposal to end the war. amid the context in which President Trump stated that significant progress had been made in contacts with Iran. At the same time, media outlets also reported that military activities continued. It means the war has not yet officially ended in a technical sense. The Fifth Air Force will deploy Army paratroopers to the central plain. But what is noteworthy is not whether the fighting continues or has ended. The issue lies in the fact that the conflict has already shifted its focus from how to fight to where to position oneself based on terrain conditions. And when a conflict reaches the point where the negotiating table becomes the central issue, That usually means the field balance has generated sufficient pressure to force one side to consider release. You know that just because one side is still firing back doesn't mean they haven't already lost the strategic position. Throughout the history of warfare, many forces have still retained the ability to launch localized counterattacks. but they have completely lost the ability to turn the situation around. The greatest loss is not running out of ammunition or soldiers, but losing the ability to shape the course of the war. In reality, even if Iran continues to launch missile attacks and the fighting persists, then we see that the United States has maintained a strong enough position to exert military pressure while simultaneously While pushing forward a peace negotiation framework according to his own conditions, he simultaneously launched attacks and secured gains. Oil prices on March 24 fell even more sharply than 5%, solely because markets believed the chances of a ceasefire had become clearer. After the United States pushed forward its downsizing plan, it sent a very thought-provoking signal. The global energy market does not react to emotions, it reacts to expectations of power. When the market begins to believe that the entity controlling the chessboard is Washington, rather than Tehran, that would be an objective sign that the situation had already tilted. The deeper significance lies in Beijing, a point that many people overlook. When we get used to viewing China as an audience standing outside, making a few diplomatic remarks and then waiting for opportunities to benefit. But this time, China's reaction has actually revealed the true nature of the confrontation. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi directly told his Iranian counterpart that all parties need to seize every opportunity. for peace, and must initiate negotiations as soon as possible. Please take careful note: this is no longer a vague statement expressing mere hope that all parties will exercise restraint. But it is an urgent call for early negotiations, and that is precisely the crucial point. Even those behind Tehran can no longer see the benefits of a prolonged war. Iran's response during that very phone call further revealed its weak position. Even international media have stated that Iran hopes China and Russia will adopt a stronger stance. to prevent the U.S. and Israel from exploiting the United Nations Security Council. That single detail alone says a great deal. One side is gaining the upper hand; they wouldn't speak in such a diplomatic tone of supplication. Iran is speaking as if it were a party needing political support to compensate for its weakening position on the ground. And the response they received from Beijing was not a commitment to go through to the end, But it's advice to seize the negotiation window as early as possible. Why is China so anxious? The answer lies in Hormuz, in oil, in natural gas, in maritime transport. and in the entire network of economic veins that Beijing cannot afford to be blocked for too long. Reality shows that the conflict has severely disrupted oil supplies. and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passing through the Strait of Hormuz, And oil prices also dropped sharply as hopes for a ceasefire increased. That means this conflict is not just an issue for Iran alone. Yet it is a test for all economies dependent on stable trade and imported energy. Among them, China is one of the most sensitive countries. Beijing can withstand hardline statements on the media. but they will not be able to overlook the fact that a strategic energy corridor of theirs is at stake placed in such a prolonged state of uncertainty. Now it's clear, the picture is clear. On the surface, the U.S.-Iran conflict is indeed a direct military confrontation between the two sides. But on a deeper level, it is a test of China's endurance. But isn't China the one wanting the U.S. to become entangled in the Middle East? whether I can gain a stronger position on issues concerning the South China Sea, the East China Sea, or the Taiwan Strait or not? That's right. But the political chessboard and the competition among national flags aren't simply about beef tallow. There are many other fluctuations affecting China's strategic posture. And that, gentlemen, is the truly dismal financial battlefield. You know that over the past many years, China has been calling for de-dollarization, Promote the role of the renminbi, expand domestic currency settlement and create a sense that the world is gradually moving away from the orbit of the US dollar. It sounds incredibly exciting, truly magnificent. But monetary power does not lie in slogans. It lies in very simple questions such as When the world is unstable, when shelter is needed, when major transactions are required And when large liquidity is needed, which currency do they hold? To date, the answer remains primarily the US dollar. According to the U.S. Federal Reserve, the dollar continues to hold a central role. in reserves, international payments, and financing That means the U.S. does not have just one strong currency. But they control the main pipeline of the global financial system. And this is a point well worth pondering. Reuters once reported that Moscow left open the possibility of returning Bilateral transactions in U.S. dollars with the United States if a larger arrangement is made. At the same time, the Kremlin also made it very clear that BRICS has no plans Create a common currency. That is, what many people refer to as the BRICS currency But in reality, it's still an illusion and hasn't actually existed yet. Chinese enterprises have recently had to significantly increase their hedging against exchange rate risks. Banks are encouraged to increase their hedging ratios for customers. As for export businesses, they sell off some U.S. dollars. to protect oneself against fluctuations. That is not the image of a monetary superpower. Enjoying the thrill of bending the rules. but it is an image of a system under defense and manage it tightly to prevent fluctuations from becoming risks. Now let's cast our eyes toward Japan. After the U.S.-Japan summit on March 19, then both sides are not only talking about Iran, They announced an action plan aimed at developing mineral supply chains. essential and rare earth minerals in the direction of reducing dependence on China, Enhance supply chain resilience and respond to economic coercion. The U.S. and Japan are jointly building an industrial base as a logistical rear. to prevent China from using minerals and supply chains as leverage. Moreover, Japan itself is also sending political signals. tougher on Beijing. Green diplomacy of Japan in 2026 will abandon referring to relations with China as one of the most important relationships and replace it with a longer description. At the same time, Tokyo and Washington at the summit has reiterated coordination on the North Korea dossier and the goal of complete denuclearization of this island. When Japan tightened its diplomatic language with China again strengthening strategic cooperation with the United States, That indicates East Asia is also heating up. as a more significant competitive arena. Now let's turn our attention to North Korea. On March 14, Pyongyang launched 10 ballistic missiles. While the U.S. and South Korea were engaged in joint exercises. This detail is very important. because it shows that the hotspot is no longer limited to Iran alone. Security pressures are becoming more evident in East Asia. But when East Asia heats up, China, too, cannot remain aloof. Because any upheaval around the Korean Peninsula The East China Sea, or the first chain of islands, They all forced China to share its attention, share resources and risks Because it's their home ground. And when we put all the pieces together, then one will see a very clear picture, much clearer indeed. Iran disrupts China's energy comfort. Comrade Luo Mei, what about them? Reveals the limits of this monetary obsession. U.S.-Japan relations forces Beijing to confront the industrial front line and tighter supply chains. And North Korea, a ally of theirs, then make East Asia tighter, That is, the security focal point will be translated more accurately. about that region of China. Each individual piece, by itself, may not cause fear in anyone, but when they appear together, At the same time, Then it creates a resonant effect. China is no longer on the sidelines of the global spotlight. They are gradually becoming the place where but many pressures of the world converge here. If previously Beijing thought the Middle East It's a pit to hold back American feet. Meanwhile, I have more free hands in Asia. Now everything is different again. If the U.S. secures the front against Iran according to his own duty It is China that is actually in a more awkward position. And as you have just seen, The world doesn't stand still, The focus of history is shifting day by day. The Middle East remains important. But it is no longer the only story. When the cracks in currency, energy, regional security and stability framework come together in convergence, the country facing the greatest pressure It won't be just Iran either. And the name appearing becomes increasingly clear In the center of the map is China. And when a country becomes a place and so much pressure pouring down all at once like this, from then on, every fluctuation in the world It will become increasingly difficult to separate oneself from it. Therefore, it would not be wrong when many strategic experts say that China is becoming a major player. of global issues. But saying it like that, would it be... Are we not being objectively evaluative? To China or not? Isn't international media still reporting loudly about it? Regarding the story about the trade surplus of China in 2025 It's still 1.2 trillion dollars. Despite the trade war with the U.S., how is that? Yes, but that is not yet the figure that tells us the true state of health of China's economy. That is, a record trade surplus it does not mean that Record-breaking economic health. Reuters reported that China has concluded in 2025 with a surplus of nearly 1.2 trillion dollars and exports will continue to grow at the beginning of 2026 21.8% in the first two months of the year. But Reuters itself clearly stated that That growth is heavily reliant on exports. while domestic demand remains weak and the 2026 growth target Then it is lower than last year. The second piece of evidence lies in investment. and domestic demand, Reuters wrote that Despite the booming exports, domestic economic activities in early 2026 still blinded by the aftermath of the incident the largest real estate bubble burst in the world and prolonged deflation. Even business investments at the end of 2025 also decreased at the fastest rate ever recorded If we disregard the year 2020 due to the pandemic. This is a very important indicator. because a truly healthy economy He cannot sustain himself forever by selling goods outside. while the business sector The third point is the banking system. In March 2026, Beijing must announce Inject 300 billion yuan into private banks to prevent systemic risks and handle non-performing assets more cautiously. The state does not naturally inject such a large scale of capital. If the financial situation were truly relaxed. And the injection of this capital It does not mean that a collapse crisis is about to occur. But it shows The Central Committee has already seen cracks large enough Have to leave early. The simplest thing is for us to just take a look at the oil refining industry to read The true health of China. This is a very good indicator. because oil refining is located at the crossroads of industrial demand transportation, construction, petrochemicals Corporate cash flow and energy policy. Reuters reported that as early as the beginning of 2025, China's oil refining industry has entered a large-scale purge due to fuel demand reached its peak earlier than expected The profit margin is being choked. and Beijing wants to eliminate Low efficiency power output. Reuters citing Good McKenzie forecasting up to 10% of refining capacity China's factories may have to close within the next decade. The small oil refineries in Shandong It is the most vulnerable group. Even more shocking, this article outright states the fact of tightening punishment regarding cheap oil From Iran, it is possible to push further forward The factory incurred losses and accelerated the act of closing down. And it's not just that long-term forecasts. Reuters reported in January 2025, at least Four independent oil refineries with a combined capacity about 320,000 barrels per day has ceased or is preparing to cease operations due to the new tax and fee policies a heavier loss. With an economy is considered still very strong, the matter of Many factories have had to shut down because the longer they operated, the greater the losses became. That is a signal that cannot be ignored, gentlemen. By August 2025 then Reuters reported that Sinochem sold two additional oil refineries bankruptcy in Shandong is Zhenghe and Huaxin 100 and 140,000 respectively a barrel every day at a much lower price compared to pricing. Previously, Reuters also note the Changji plant 160,000 barrels per day have gone bankrupt and sold at a price less than half of that initial surge level. These three plants all described as bankrupt due to debt and unpaid taxes, meaning that this is no longer It's a temporary difficult situation. It had already gone bankrupt and was liquidating its assets. mandatory restructuring of a thing Industrial links are so important. If additional industry-wide data is incorporated, the picture will be It is even clearer now. Reuters reported China's crude oil imports in 2024 decreased by 1.9%, to 55.3 million tons, equivalent to 11.04 million barrels per day. This is the first reduction. in the two decades beyond the period Covid is when we don't speak. That year's oil output also recorded a rare downturn. In Shandong Loc Lập factories operate for only about 53.66% capacity. Those This figure is also very important, because they reflect an economic system that the fuel of old growth Weakening. Real estate decline reduces diesel demand, electric vehicles changing the structure of oil and gasoline consumption As for the oil profit margin variable, it's being suppressed. Then the question becomes even more complicated. That's right, it's Iran's war, and it's going to turn everything upside down. Anything else worth adding? Yes, there is. The media on March 20 and 24 shows that the Iran war has forced China to face challenges with the risk of shifting from deflation sang the kind of inflation economists call "bad inflation." Input price increases due to oil Still loading and originally increased However, domestic demand is not increasing accordingly. Reuters also showed that feed prices, corn, soybeans and a lot of feed going into production, thus significantly increasing livestock feeding In March, while pork prices were dropping After 16 years, the farmers are still in debt. from 280 to 350 yuan per tiger. And this is a very concerning model. The cost is increasing, but the capability weak exchange rate, meaning business profits Worn out by the mother. A robust economy. Honestly, at the very least, there must be some desire. strong enough to absorb part of the cost shock. China is currently facing again Exactly the opposite weakness. The labor market also speaks volumes. Media reports indicate that the youth unemployment rate is ages 16 to 24 in China in February In 2006, it was still 16.1%. The group aged 25 to 29 years old is 7.2%. Also Reuters The survey results show that More than half of Chinese workers did not receive a pay raise in 2005. And the data this extremely important one reflect a certain degree of difficulty of China's economy. It is far more important than flashy displays. military affairs at sea. Because of health of an economy, in the end, it still lies In the question, the people have jobs Is it stable or not? Will the salary increase? And dare they spend it or not? If jobs are difficult, wages are low, and housing prices are high As for the wound, export growth increases. The stronger it is, the easier it is to reflect. A paradox. The factory keeps running. but domestic living conditions cannot be restored The future counterpart. And thus we have used precisely the data that international media reputable outlets such as Reuters they spread the news in order to Analyze the issue of the current health condition in detail. the true nature of China's economy And I hope you now have a more objective perspective as well. to understand these developments clearly. Of course, we must also acknowledge that China's power is real. But the instability is real. The issue must be viewed from these two aspects. The story of Iran and the Middle East It will also deepen the instability even further. of Beijing. And let's just wait and see further New developments. At this point, today's program would like to take a temporary pause. We kindly invite you to share your personal opinions. Lê Minh says hello and looks forward to seeing you again.