SỰ THẬT VIỆC IRAN BẤT NGỜ QUAY XE ĐÒI ĐÀM PHÁN: TRUNG QUỐC, TRIỀU TIÊN ĐANG RỜI BỎ TEHRAN

On April 8, Iran confirmed its acceptance of a two-week ceasefire and stated that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be permitted during this period, under coordination with Iranian armed forces. Iran's Supreme National Security Council also stated that negotiations with the United States will begin in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 10, based on their 10-point proposal. And if one looks at these ten points as a typical diplomatic statement, many would easily assume that Iran is putting forward peace conditions. But if looked at more deeply, and placed within the proper context of the war and the intricate power struggles in the Middle East, it becomes clear that this is far from merely a peace proposal. In reality, it is a strategic bargaining chip, where Iran seeks both to gain advantages and to retain its most crucial cards. They did not step up to the negotiation table with the mindset of a party surrendering. They came forward with the stance of a side that, despite facing immense pressure, still possesses sufficient tools to force the other party to pay a price if they wish to end the war. Now let us take a close look at the various points in Iran's peace plan, analyzing each one in depth to understand the full picture. First of all, the first point: guarantee no invasion of Iran. On the surface, this may seem self-evident, but in reality, this wording carries significant political meaning. Iran wants a clear commitment that the other party's objective is not to overthrow the regime by force. Substantively, what makes this point most valuable is that it establishes a psychological framework for dialogue. But to be precise, this still does not constitute a substantive concession from Iran. It is a way for Tehran to force its opponent to reassess the objectives of the war. It is more politically strategic than a specific, immediately measurable agreement. The second point is maintaining Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz. That is indeed one of the hardest and most substantive positions. Hormuz is not merely a strait. For Iran, it is a pressure valve, a strategic lever, a card that enables them to turn their geographical position into political power. We have already analyzed this issue in many programs. Therefore, when Iran says it accepts safe passage but still must maintain its own control, That means they agree to de-escalate but are unwilling to give up their most powerful weapon. This is a substantive demand, and it also shows that Tehran in no way wishes to return to the pre-war status quo, as if nothing had happened. They want the world to recognize that every solution in Hormuz must go through them, not through mere hope. The third point: accepting Iran's uranium enrichment is a very clear statement about the red line. Iran will not negotiate to completely abandon its nuclear program. They may accept negotiation regarding the extent, monitoring mechanisms, and technical limitations. but does not accept the principle that Iran must give up its right to enrich uranium. Therefore, this is not a minor issue. On the contrary, it is the strongest message among all ten points. Tehran is saying that if there is a reconciliation, it will be on conditions that Iran retains its strategic pillars. The fourth point is the complete removal of all primary and secondary sanctions. That is a very practical requirement. This is not mere rhetoric for display. It is money, trade, rich exports, access to the financial system, and the survival of Iran's economy. Without this point, all the ceasefire orders are merely brief pauses before economic pressure resumes squeezing Tehran. Therefore, this is essentially a request. However, demanding the immediate complete removal also indicates that Iran is placing a very high value on it. The need is indeed real, but the way the issue is framed still carries a dark, pessimistic tone. The fifth point is the termination of United Nations Security Council resolutions and EIA Board of Governors resolutions against Iran. It's another difference again. This point is more focused on legal aspects and international reputation. Iran does not merely want to alleviate actual pressure, and even wants to wash away the label of a country besieged by international resolution mechanisms. But if you look closely at the reality, this is a goal that is difficult to achieve quickly. It is not something that can be resolved in the first round of negotiations. Therefore, this point is more strategic than practical, in essence. It shows that Tehran not only wants to end the war, and also wants to revise its legal position within the international order. The sixth point is compensation for Iran's damages. It is a request of great symbolic weight. Tehran wants to assert that it is the party that was attacked and therefore has the right to demand compensation. This is extremely important to domestic public opinion. because it enables the government to tell the people that Iran is not seeking peace on its knees. However, in terms of likelihood, this requirement is actually more of a superficial one. In practice, major negotiations often avoid using the term "compensation" in its direct sense. but replace them with softer mechanisms such as asset releases, easing of sanctions, or allowing access to funding. Therefore, this is a clearly significant tactical requirement. The seventh point is to get the entire U.S. fighting force out of the area. That is almost the maximum requirement. Everyone understands that Washington would find this very difficult to accept. at least in the economy class compartment. But precisely because it is difficult, Iran still proceeded with it. Why? Because Tehran wants to expand the negotiation table from the issue of ceasefire to the issue of regional security structure. They want to say that war cannot truly end as long as the U.S. continues to maintain military pressure around Iran. This point is therefore primarily tactical language. It is not necessarily a goal that can be achieved immediately. but it helps Iran elevate the negotiation to a higher level. where they do not merely speak of current weapons and ammunition, but also about the long-term encirclement. Point 8 is the cessation of war on all fronts, even with authorized forces in the federation. Shows that Iran is not merely interested in signing a paper decree that creates a ceasefire on paper, The secondary fronts continue to burn. This point is quite substantial. because if the delegated fronts continue to conflict, War could erupt again at any moment. But it is also another affirmation. Allied networks and their designated forces is part of the regional strategic reality, cannot be regarded as non-existent. That is, Tehran is not only protecting its own territory, and also want to protect the entire influence system they have established. especially the Hezbollah forces in the Federation. Point 9 is the release of Iranian assets frozen abroad. It is one of the most essential aspects of the entire proposal package. This is real money, real resources, The ability to breathe freely for Iran's economy. If these assets are recovered, Tehran will have the room to stabilize internally. resist financial pressure and restore managerial capability. To put it briefly, this is not political language. It is a specific material benefit. If I had to pick among 10 points, What Iran truly needs and very much wants to obtain immediately? among the clearest answers Point 10: All commitments must be standardized. by a strong Security Council resolution of the United Nations. It once again shows that Iran has learned from the lessons of the past. Tehran does not want to trade its tactical concessions. Take the promises that can be changed after an election in Washington. He wants to have an international legal internship class. in case there is an agreement then that commitment is not merely a temporary political pledge, but becomes a duty with broader significance. This is a requirement with very strict logic. but at the same time, it is also a difficult requirement, because it touches upon international power relations, not just bilateral relations between the US and Iran. Therefore, this is both a genuine necessity, It is again a way of enhancing value. of every concession that Iran might accept. And if you combine all 10 points together, then we will see this proposal document It can be clearly divided into three distinct layers. The first level is what Iran truly wants to hold onto at all costs. is the right to control the blending. the right to enrich uranium the ability to lift sanctions and the blocked assets. This is their core strength, their vital interest. And the second level is what Iran has raised to leave the highest level unchecked, which one is helping the entire U.S. military force leave the area, compensation for damages Terminate all unfavorable resolutions. This is the bidding section. And the third level is the words themselves. in order to shape their status and intellectual reputation Do not invade Iran, bring an end to the war on every front, and Jiang imposed the agreement by international law. Therefore, if one were to ask about these 10 points they put forward, Is there actually any concession? Yes, but not many. The real concession lies in Iran's acceptance of entering negotiations, Accepting de-escalation around Hormuz and accept bringing the game to the negotiation table instead of merely continuing military confrontation. But most of the remaining content, It is not surrender. but it is Tehran's way of trying to retain as much as possible my cards while being forced to descend the stairs To put it more simply, Iran has taken a step back. But it is a calculated retreat. They retreated to maintain their position. but not retreating and losing everything. Therefore, we see the greatest message conveyed by the entire ten points That's how it is. Iran is trying to turn the situation of pressure to its advantage. under pressure become a negotiation process about the price of peace. They did not say that we accept everything. to end the war, but they say it's like if you want the war to stop then the world must accept that Iran remains a decisive actor. They took the initiative into their own hands. That is a very big difference. And precisely for this reason, this text it simultaneously contains Tehran's genuine demands, It again contains strategic language. It is not the final treaty. But it's a price quotation. about the ceasefire. And if viewed with a single eye of a strategist then we see these 10 points in that document That plan of Iran's, It is clearly exposing itself. A current reality is Iran has endured sufficient pressure. to have to open the door to dialogue, but they still haven't agreed to the extent that they are willing to negotiate like a defeated side. They're still trying to hold on to the illusion. uranium maintain regional influence hold assets appearance, and retain the legal future as well of any agreement. And that reveals a very clear truth that Tehran is clearly de-escalating. but descending under conditional defensive posture, but not by resigning with a white flag. At this point, the audience will arrive. The thing that puzzles me is this. Just a few days ago, Iran has made a very tough declaration. denial of truce, and emphasized that they do not accept A temporary ceasefire. Yet by this time, They have again agreed to enter the negotiation process. Why is there such a rapid change? To such an extent, Is it turning 180 degrees like that? Actually, this is not because Iran has suddenly become weak. Nor are they naturally so Change your mindset, but it reflects a much simpler reality. It is the painting of the battlefield. The economy and diplomacy have changed. Due to the unfavorable direction too quickly, making it continue to maintain the old, broad rhythm no longer compatible with actual tolerance capacity of the regime as well. And want to understand why Iran had to change its status That fast? First of all, we must look at the military pressure. directly upgrade the logistics infrastructure. Israel confirmed that they have struck 8 railway bridges and railway lines in many areas such as Tehran, Kabul, Tabriz, Kashan, and Qom with the argument that these points Used to transport weapons and military equipment. Reports from the channels International news agencies all described this as targeted strike aimed at disrupting the supply chain Iran's security system transportation but not a sudden strike a mere symbol to display power From a military standpoint, target the bridges and railways. It's not just about demolishing a few buildings. Simple traffic. In the current war, That's how you hit the rhythm. the opponent's reaction When the transport lines are cut, the delay in moving the troops Replenishment is also slower. missile ammunition rotation, air defense equipment and the mobile forces became even more disorganized. A military force may still possess weapons, As long as there is a unit and a command order. But if the connecting wires are trees below the severed optic nerves Like this paragraph, Their actual defensive capability will then decline very rapidly. To put it simply, they will not collapse immediately, but has already been lost The ability to maneuver at the right moment. The greatest significance for Iran of this series of blows, it is The opponent is no longer targeting purely military objectives. but currently targeting the nervous system of logistics of the Iranian state. Yet the bridge and culvert are only half the problem. The remaining half is more dangerous. That's Kha Island. The previous videos, We have already mentioned Iran, yet still Headstrong, neck-stiff—cut off the blood vessel. their offshore oil exports will be The card that the U.S. and Israel will play. Indeed, major news agencies as Reuters also reported on the matter The United States has struck military targets on Kha Island. and emphasized that the island is a key hub process about 90% of the exported oil volume of Iran. Washington says that They pay attention to avoiding the strike. into the oil field infrastructure this time. But that is precisely the most terrifying message. with Tehran. The U.S. has demonstrated that They can touch the little export hub. Iran's oil, and the unlaunched attack into the oil and gas sector not because it couldn't be done, but because it's left open Just another step up the ladder. The important story here It's not about how many American soldiers there are. about to seize Kha Island, but it lies in the matter of The U.S. has shown Iran that this island is It is entirely within their reach. Just having those few lawsuits against it is enough to explain the pressure. When a regime Seeing that you are writing with strong energy may be locked at any time, then the possibility of further escalation no longer exists As for the matter of honor, which has already become life-or-death question about revenue sources, foreign exchange and state resilience. And when placing these two bunches side by side We will see the picture very clearly. On one side is the artery they need on the mainland. cut in sections in reverse, one side is the oil valve Offshore, it was placed under the blade of excavation. When those two things happen at the same time, Iran found itself caught in a squeeze from both within and outside. They are not only weakened the ability to move forces and equipment and even reminded that any ascending spiral the next one can also be transitioned to the phase crushing oil exports. To put it simply, this is the situation. It is only from here that one clearly sees why Iran proposed 10 points. it is not a sign of superiority as much as Some propaganda channels wish to describe, It's an effort to control the damage. while still trying to maintain his posture. Reuters reported that Iran has set forth certain conditions. for long-term peace, including a cessation of hostilities, Guarantee no recurrence, compensation and incorporate the issue of the rubber stopper into the negotiation framework. It means Tehran has been forced to go from the point of negating the ceasefire to the point of accepting negotiations. But negotiating in a way that preserves face And that is why we say the 10-point document of theirs There are many phrases that sound harsh. It sounds like they're currently in a favorable position. But then It shows that Inside, deep within, Iran does not want being seen as a party forced to sit down Lying on the side in a relaxed position. That is the meaning of that matter But they uttered harsh words. But we know that Beneath that rigidity lies a deep panic. War is not just bombs and bullets, It is also a strategic isolation problem. Now we will analyze. Reuters reports, according to the assessment by South Korean intelligence approved by the legislators of this country, North Korea is maintaining a greater distance from Iran. so as not to close the door to improving relations with the United States in the future. Although it has not yet been possible to verify Every detail spreading across the internet, This single advance is already heavy enough. It sent Tehran a very cold message, namely even a partner who originally shared in confrontation with Washington also leaving no way out for myself. In that war, it was a terrifying leap forward. because it reveals the ideological connection Not strong enough to ensure survival connectivity. The time has come to be cornered then each country will prioritize emergency exits My love. And that undermines Iran's psychological standing. in a very profound way. Because a regime can withstand bullets and bombs. Add some more time if they still believe that I have strategic support from outside. But when partners开始 to create distance, began speaking in a hoarse, raspy voice, beginning to distance themselves from the fate binding them to Tehran, Russia, China, Which one is North Korea now? then Iran's internal factions will understand that this war If prolonged, the heavy wing will eventually It will still fall on oneself alone. The advancement of North Korea It does not necessarily immediately alter the military balance. but it changes the strategic sense of loneliness of Tehran. Along with that Moreover, there is pressure coming from the Arab side as well. Previously, Reuters reported The Saudi Foreign Minister declared This country has the right to take military action. against Iran following missile attacks aimed at Riyadh, while stating that the last remaining shred of trust toward Tehran has been broken. And here is an extremely important detail, because for a long time Iran has managed to survive partly thanks to the ability to play on the contradiction between the US, Israel and Arab countries. But if Riyadh goes to the point of公开ly So wide and rigid, Iran would no longer just be facing off against the U.S.-Israel axis but is currently facing the risk of jeopardizing the entire The security situation in the Gulf region has become more favorable for us. And especially when Iran launched a reckless attack on Gulf countries, Arab countries Around them, their neighbors are cutting it off his last lifeline. All of that explains to us see clearly why Iran's current actions therefore should be understood as a forced situation, but not merely a simple change of mind. They don't have much space left to choose from. And if you continue to reject negotiations, Then they will face the risk of war. War will shift to the phase of intensifying attacks on logistics and energy. And if you accept sitting down now, At the very least, they still have a chance. Turn the battlefield into a flat table. Therefore, Tehran has chosen to enter into negotiations. Of course, Plus an additional 10-point text that sounds very cute and tough to just take a step back, still holding onto the feeling that I haven't fully let go of my cards. That is the logic of a regime. Descending the stairs to maintain position, but not surrendering to bring it to an end. As we have clearly analyzed above. But that it also shows that Iran is no longer There are still many cards in hand. Have had to proactively bring up negotiation in such a manner. It means you no longer trust. into their actual combat capability on their own battlefield. There are also some reports suggesting that China has exerted pressure to force Iran Had to negotiate a de-escalation with the U.S. at the last minute. We cannot yet certainly confirm that Beijing has done this, directly pressured Iran's ally. But Reuters does highlight an important reality. China has had contacts with Iran. on the issue of energy transportation safety to Hormuz. While Beijing itself also chose the same direction as Russia Promoting de-escalation and diplomatic solutions instead of letting the crisis continue to devastate The oil route is vital to the region's survival. and of China itself in the same way. Therefore, That story isn't exactly China giving orders. and Iran must comply. Rather, when the war had reached us The core benefit of the major powers behind it, Iran's operational space It was immediately narrowed. For Beijing, Hormuz is not just Iran's story, But it's the story of oil, commerce, supply chain and energy security. When those benefits are threatened, Beijing's desire for Iran to de-escalate that is entirely understandable Very logical from a strategic perspective. In other words, if Iran previously still had the ability use Hormuz as a bargaining chip Very harsh on the U.S. By now, they have to face it. with a colder reality. Not every ally or partner of theirs are all ready to sacrifice their own interests, Moreover, it is a potential risk. burned to ashes all the benefits of his own, just to allow Iran to continue holding a situation of direct confrontation with the United States. Iran must enter the negotiation table. because the chessboard around them has changed. When the interests of the countries themselves has a close relationship with Iran began to be threatened as well, then they, Tehran, no longer have many options besides stepping down to hold on to the rest. We cannot deny the fact that In geopolitics, there are no allies. forever for an endless escalation. When the war began combustion for the benefit of their own countries behind me, Iran, they must understand that the act of continuing to confront it is no longer a manifestation of strength, courage as well, but it could become a path Do it yourself. isolate even more. At this point, today's program would like to take a temporary pause. We kindly invite you to share your personal views on this topic. Greetings, and I look forward to seeing you again.