Communist China Won't Attack Taiwan Immediately, But Is Developing a New Normal #taiwan #china #usa

On October 2nd, CNN aired an interview with the U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. In the interview, Austin said he sees no imminent invasion of Taiwan by China. What we do see is China moving to establish what we would call a new normal. Increased activity. We saw a number of centerline crossings of the Taiwan Strait by their aircraft. That number has increased over time. We've seen more activity with their surface vessels and waters in and around Taiwan. The American military is always prepared to protect our interests and live up to our commitments. I think the president was clear in providing his answers as he responded to a hypothetical question. I don't see an imminent invasion either. What we do see is China moving to establish what we would call a new normal. And again, this is something that bears watching. The new normal referred to by Austin began after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. The Chinese Communist Party, or CCP, continued to conduct multi-armed drills in the waters surrounding Taiwan, firing missiles that even landed in Japan's exclusive economic waters. Then, on August 26, the Eastern Theater of the CCP military used the term normalized for the first time in public to describe the military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. An associate researcher at the Institute for National Policy Research in Taiwan pointed out that the new normal developed by the CCP poses a great threat to regional security. But the cross-sea attack on Taiwan is a very complicated military operation that the CCP is not capable of completing at this stage. First, once you become a new normal, it will become a normal. Of course, the threat of force against Taiwan will be more specific. Second, the more the CCP's PLA takes the Taiwan Strait into its sphere of influence, the greater the threat to regional security. This is also why the U.S., Japan, Australia, and other countries have strongly opposed it time and again. The most famous case in history is the Normandy Landing. At that time, how many Allied troops were mobilized and how much equipment was carried before the Normandy Landing was successfully accomplished across the sea? Not to mention that they have to cross the Taiwan Strait, which is wider than the English Channel, which is impossible with the capabilities of the PLA at this stage. A senior Taiwan military commentator said that Taiwan's special geographic location is of great significance to the U.S. in safeguarding its interests in the western Pacific. The exercise in August, the Communist Party took a step forward and had a new understanding of how to fight against Taiwan. The real battlefield is still a long way from being formed. The main point being, is Taiwan a major interest to the U.S. in the entire Asia-Pacific, Indo-Pacific? Is Taiwan's position in this geopolitical station important? Now it seems obvious that it is very important. Whether you, U.S., willing or not, you have to come, not to help Taiwan, but to protect the American interests in the entire western Pacific, because Taiwan's position is even more important than it was during the Cold War. Even Japan thinks Taiwan is important. China's new normal has sparked an international boycott, with the defense ministers of the U.S., Japan, and Australia holding a summit in Hawaii on October 1, strongly opposing any attempt to unilaterally change the status quo by force or escalate tensions. The three defense ministers agreed to strategically integrate and strengthen security cooperation, strengthen joint exercise activities, and also strengthen defense equipment and technical cooperation among the three countries in response to the growing intimidation of the CCP. In the past year, U.S. President Biden has publicly stated four times that if the CCP invades Taiwan by force, the U.S. will send troops to defend Taiwan. When asked by the CNN host this time, Austin also said that the U.S. military is always ready to defend its own interests and fulfill its commitments. He believes that when Biden responded to hypothetical questions, the answer was already clear. Austin also said that the U.S. is committed to helping Taiwan develop its self-defense capabilities in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act, and that this effort is ongoing. And the U.S. will continue to work to ensure that the right capabilities are in the right places to help allies maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific region.