How Good Is Yadier Molina, Really? | Baseball Bits

Yadier Molina is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. Wait, no. Yadier Molina, uh, contains multitudes. Okay, um. Yadier Molina is a land of contrasts. That doesn't even make sense. Yadier Molina is a baseball player. That much I know is true. He's the current catcher for the Now, the thing that makes Molina special is simple. He's divisive. He doesn't try to be, he just is. Depending on who you ask, Molina could either be a slam dunk first ballot hall of famer, or someone that should just be thankful to make the ballot at all. And in a statistical landscape that believes it can describe a player's value in one number, I'm of course talking about war, the fact that any modern baseballer elicits such a wide range of opinions is worth looking into. And that's exactly what I'm going to do. I'm going to give three different perspectives on the unique career of Yadier Molina, all in the name of finding the truth. Just how good is Yadier Molina, really? Prepare to find out. The first level is from the perspective of someone who knows only the most basic mainstream baseball stats. Let's see what they have to say. Yadier Molina is the modern Yogi Berra. It's true, you look at their career numbers in terms of total playing time, batting average, and hits, and they're staggeringly similar. But that's offense. Defensively, why not compare him to Johnny Bench? After all, Yadier is second to Bench all time in gold glove awards for catchers. See, what makes Molina special is just how well decorated he is. He has two World Series rings, a silver slugger, nine gold gloves, four platinum gloves, and he was just selected to his 10th all-star roster this year, becoming only the 68th player and 6th catcher in Major League history to reach double-digit all-star games. And that's including Josh Gibson in the Negro Leagues. Pretty good company. So why do the numbers nerds try to push back against this amazing legacy he's built for himself? Hey Poindexter, here's a stat for you. Yadier Molina is a .328 hitter in 21 World Series games. All throughout his career, he's been clutch in the playoffs, from his homer in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS, which effectively clinched the series, to single-handedly staving off elimination in Game 4 of the 2019 NLDS. That's just what he does. He's a winner. And it's no wonder that this marriage between a winning player and a winning organization in the Cardinals has existed for so long. Molina recently celebrated his 2,000th game as their backstop. He's the only player in MLB history to catch 2,000 games exclusively for one team. In an era where today's athletes are so concerned with load management, and launch angle, and not fighting in the Korean War, that's quite the accomplishment. And maybe Mr. Molina hasn't fought in a proxy war, but if there was an opportunity, I think he'd do it. After all, he's a real FIELD GENERAL. Yeah, you like that transition, don't you? As a FIELD GENERAL, Yadier's always been near the top of the leaderboards for taking exception to things. That's what a hard-nosed catcher should do. Pitch too high? Take exception to it. Brandon Phillips talks to you? Take exception to it. Commit catcher's interference? That's right, take exception. That's baseball. That's life. Amir Garrett tried to fight an entire team. The NL Central is anarchy. But Molina's not just a fighter, he's a lover. He won the Roberto Clemente Award for his relief aid to their shared homeland of Puerto Rico. No doubt, he's a leader both on and off the field, and it affects his teammates as well. Look no further than his partnership with Adam Wainwright. For 16 years, they've formed one of the most prolific batteries in MLB history. It shouldn't be a surprise that Wainwright's ERA with Molina is almost a run lower than his ERA without him. That's what greatness looks like. And it leaves no doubt in my mind that Yadier Molina is one of the absolute best catchers in MLB history. All the praise given to him by fans, players, and the media is well-deserved. That was fun. Not terribly analytical, but it was definitely fun. But let's get a second opinion, this time from someone familiar with entry-level sabermetrics. What do they have to say? Really? You're comparing Yadier Molina to Yogi Berra and Johnny Bench? No way. Try Jason Kendall. Look how similar they are, not just in terms of their basic counting stats, but also metrics like OPS Plus and Baseball Reference War. So if Molina's so great, where's the love for Jason Kendall? Where is it? I think I know what's happening here. See, Yadier is a cardinal for life. He's easily identifiable with one historically successful organization, and will be remembered fondly for it. But that bias towards players that are franchise legends can be a disservice to those like Jason Kendall, who had Journeyman-like careers. Of course, sticking with the same team doesn't make a player any more or less righteous. Players should feel free to exercise whatever agency they can get their hands on. The fact that he's stuck around says more about the Cardinals than it does about Molina. But let's get down to business. He's a 41 war player. That's the same as Jason Kendall, that's less than Jorge Posada, that's less than Wally Shang. Go in the comments right now and tell me one thing you know about Wally Shang without looking him up. You can't do it. You praise Molina, but you don't know Shang. Seriously, people talk about this guy like he's just gonna waltz into Cooperstown when he's done. He has less war than Brett Gardner. And can we please knock it off with these batting average comparisons in the year 2021 of our lord? Let's use a stat like OPS Plus instead, which normalizes OPS to the ballpark as well as the league's offensive environment. In OPS Plus, 100 is always average, and Molina clocks in below that. He's a below average hitter for his career, but you wouldn't know that if you only cared about batting average. Look at Jim Tomei for example. He had a .402 career on base percentage and slugged .554. He was one of the best left handed hitters since integration. And you know what? His career batting average is worse than Yadier Molina's. So why use batting average? Yadier's just an accumulator. He's played in MLB long enough to rack up some nice counting stats, but that doesn't make him truly great. He's like Jamie Moyer, but for catchers. At the end of the day, he's 20th in catcher war and a whopping 84th in catcher OPS Plus. Yes, he's a good defender. I wouldn't base that assessment off gold glove awards, but he is a legitimately great catcher. But is it enough to excuse his below average hitting? Not for me. Final verdict? Overrated. Wow. Kinda harsh. But points were made. Is Yadier Molina a statistical fraud? It's time to dig deep and find out. Look, Yadier Molina is obviously not one of the all time great hitters, but calling him below average offensively is disingenuous. The OPS Plus for an average hitter is 100, but the average OPS Plus for the catcher position is typically in the low 90s, so that would make Molina an above average hitter for a catcher. His position is super relevant to this entire debate. It's clear that Molina's status as a stat accumulator is a double edged sword. It earns him praise in some circles, and scorn in others. It's worth noting that while accumulators end up with good counting stats, like hits and home runs, it's often to the detriment of their rate stats, like OPS. That's how you end up in a situation where Mike Jastrzemski has similar rate stats to his grandfather. Yeah, do it when you're 44, Mike. You coward. I'm calling you out. The point is this. Longevity, particularly at a position as punishing as catcher, should be in his favor, not to his detriment. Yadier Molina is one of 4 players in MLB history with 2000 hits while playing the catcher position. Wow, Jason Kendall again. Good for him. Keep in mind, this is only for games they were playing catcher. Don't jump in the comment section yelling at me about games that Joe Maurer or Mike Piazza played at first base or DH. We've done a lot of comparisons, and the temptation may be to compare Molina to Omar Vizquel. It's the age old story of guy plays premium position for a long time, isn't a great hitter, but racks up about 40 war. Of course, Molina's a way better hitter than Vizquel, and that R-War is an illusion. Here's the thing. If you use wins above replacement from baseball reference to assess modern catchers, you're leaving out one of their most important contributions. Framing. Framing is lying to umpires, aka receiving the pitch to get as many strike calls as possible. And Molina's done a lot of framing over the years. Fangraphs, which tracks framing from 2008 onwards, has met plus 145 framing runs for his career. That's a lot of added value, and it explains why Molina has 55 Fangraphs War, making him the 9th most valuable catcher, not 20th. The industry leaders in framing data, baseball prospectus, produce similar results. They've awarded him 157 framing runs, good for 4th all time since 1988, but also behind his brother Jose. So the 41 war on baseball reference is simply a case of incomplete data. Think of him as a 55-60 war or warp catcher instead. The end result is this. When you combine the inherent value of the catcher position with Molina's skill and longevity, Fangraphs calculates him to be the most valuable defender in MLB history, just ahead of defensive titans Ozzie Smith and Brooks Robinson. That's why I think Yadier Molina is a top 10 catcher all time, and a surefire hall of famer. Because he's the most valuable defender in a game that's been played professionally for 150 years. First things first, how cool is it that the best defensive catcher of all time technically isn't even the best catcher in his family? If Jose had Yadi's bat, this video would be about him. What makes the catcher position unique from a sabermetric perspective is that it might just be the least quantifiable position in the game of baseball. Even if new stats for framing have emerged over the last few years, the value of game calling and leadership is yet to be determined, and probably never will be. Yadier Molina is emblematic of this divide between the known and the unknown. When he hits the hall of fame ballot, the older electorate will probably praise his intangibles and accolades. Meanwhile, the most basic of stat heads will pounce on his numerical shortcomings. Yet, digging just slightly deeper reveals Molina's true statistical brilliance. So whether you're attracted to things that can be quantified, or things that can't be, the conclusion is the same. Yadier Molina is one of the best catchers in MLB history, doesn't matter what angle you're coming at it from. This separates him from a couple of his contemporaries, Brian McCann and Russell Martin. Those guys are strictly sabermetric darlings because defensive metrics adore them. But will anyone listen? Will the non-sabermetrician listen to the stat nerd saying, look at Martin's framing guys, look at McCann's warp? I don't think so. But they still love Molina. He's a player that makes us think. A player that helps us acknowledge the known and the unknown. A player that makes people angry on the internet. He's perfect. And we've explored all of that without mentioning the most extraordinary thing about Yadier Molina. It's the arm. This is a graph of stolen bases allowed by teams since 2005, Molina's first full season in the big leagues. It's a gentle slope down from team to team, with an average of about 1500 stolen bases allowed. And then, there's the Cardinals. That's what Yadier Molina can do for you. Not only has he been hyper efficient at throwing out would-be base stealers, his very presence dissuades runners from stealing in the first place. This is best illustrated through the example of Andrew McCutcheon. With the exception of a weird fever dream I had, McCutcheon has played his entire career in the National League, and most of it in the NL Central with the Pirates. And as a Pirate, plundering bases was part of his game. He had the 5th most steals in the National League during his years in Pittsburgh. On April 22nd, 2012, McCutcheon stole 2nd vs Molina. It was his 8th career steal vs Molina, but at the expense of 7 contstealings. Not a good ratio. From that date onward, we're talking from April 2012 onward, Andrew McCutcheon would attempt another 129 steals in a Pirates uniform. None of them came against Yadier Molina. Think about that. Andrew McCutcheon played in the same division as Yadier Molina, the guy known for never taking a day off, he attempted 129 steals across almost 6 seasons, and didn't run on Molina once. He ran on Cardinals backup Tony Cruz, he won MVP, he took the Pirates to the playoffs 3 times, he became baseball royalty, but he did not run on Yadier Molina. He even got traded to the Giants and stole a base against Francisco Peña. Who even is that? Cutch must have seen the lineups that day and thought to himself, no Yadier? Time to run! That's the Molina Effect. Hey thanks for watching, and thank you so much to my newest patrons. To see your name here, head over to Patreon.com slash Foolish Baseball. Also thank you to Maxo for the music.