Will the Chinese Communist Party risk invading Taiwan? || China Forecast

In 2022, Taiwan's national army will begin mass production of the Xiangsheng missile to strengthen its asymmetric warfare capabilities. It's also developing drones that can target enemy launch sites. The Xiangsheng missile is a ground-to-ground cruise missile with a range of 1,000 to 1,200 kilometers. Military experts say this range theoretically covers a number of air force stations, airports, and naval bases in the CCP's eastern war zone. If the CCP were to attempt to take Taiwan by force, the Xiangsheng missile could significantly delay or paralyze the CCP's war effort. In November 2021, the Executive Yuan of the Republic of China passed a special budget to strengthen its military capacity. According to Taiwan's defense minister, the current military investment will effectively enhance the overall combat capability of the national army. Taiwan's state-made missiles will be mass-produced to meet the threat of Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense regularly submits reports to the Legislative Yuan regarding the completion of various programs and any challenges encountered. According to its recent report, various types of Taiwan-made missiles will be mass-produced in response to the communist threat. Reuters reports that Taiwan is developing missiles that can attack enemy air bases and shoot down cruise missiles as well as drones that can target their launch sites. In March, Taiwan's defense ministry said it planned to more than double its annual missile production to nearly 500 in 2022 to boost its combat capabilities. In a report submitted by the defense ministry to the Legislative Yuan this week, the military-owned National Changshan Institute of Science and Technology, or NCSIST, provided more details about what the missiles and drones it was developing could do in the event of a war. Experts say the Xiangsheng ground attack missile could have a range of up to 1,000 kilometers with two types of warheads, high explosive and scattering, which could be used to counter operations against fortified command posts, bunkers, and airport runways. A researcher from Taiwan's National Policy Research Foundation said the Xiangsheng's range could reach most of the communist army's bases in the eastern war zone, including those near Shanghai and Zhejiang province. This would greatly improve the ability of the national army to delay or paralyze a communist invasion of Taiwan, making it difficult for the communists to accomplish rapid warfare. The Advanced Skybow-3 air defense missile is designed to shoot down ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and fighter jets. A western security source based in Taiwan told Reuters that while Taiwan is acquiring equipment such as Harpoon anti-ship missiles from the US, its own missile program will help ensure that Taiwan doesn't have to rely on foreign supplies as Ukraine does. Taiwan's defense ministry reported that four new facilities including bases and repair shops will be built for the new drone by 2025. It previously announced plans to begin manufacturing attack drones with an annual production target of 48. This attack drone is different from the drones in the Russia-Ukraine war. At the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian war, it is believed that Ukraine had up to 20 Turkish drones. It was originally thought that compared to Russian warplanes, this relatively slow, low altitude, and completely defenseless drone would be shot down within a few hours of taking off. However, more than half a month into the war, the Ukrainian drones are not only still on duty, but have also destroyed many Russian rocket launchers with guided rockets, tanks, and supply trains. The Russians claim to have shot down several Ukrainian drones, but the remaining number is unknown. Ukraine continues to upload new videos on the internet of drones destroying Russian military vehicles. Last month, Taiwan's defense ministry revealed that the first US-made MQ-9B drones would enter service in Taiwan in 2025. The MQ-9B drone purchased by Taiwan is mainly used for defensive surveillance and early warning. It isn't an offensive weapon. The MQ-9B drone can stay in air for long periods of time, with a maximum endurance of over 40 hours, an operational range of over 9,600 kilometers, and a maximum altitude of 15,000 meters, fully satisfying the requirements for high-altitude surveillance over the Taiwan Strait. The MQ-9B is a large drone, 11.7 meters long, with a wingspan of 24 meters, and a maximum takeoff gross weight of 5,670 kilograms or 12,500 pounds. It carries a piece of more critical surveillance equipment. Once the war starts, the surveillance system will provide accurate target information to support ground, sea, and anti-submarine strike capabilities. It will be able to fuse with various types of missiles to execute precision strikes. A Taiwan legislator said on Facebook that according to public information, Taiwan's Xiangsheng missile system and the Thunderbolt 2000 extended range will enter mass production. He said that the Xiangsheng missile system is a surface-to-surface cruise missile with an estimated range of 1,000 to 1,200 kilometers. It can be used to strike at the source of the Communist forces' assembly points and airports to force the Communist force to move back their assembly positions, giving Taiwan more time and space to respond. The increased range of attack is also an improvement in the ability to break through the Communist air defense network. He said the Thunderbolt 2000 multi-barrel rocket range plan will start this month with a full vehicle operational evaluation. It will push up the maximum range from 45 kilometers to 70. In the future, Taiwan will continue to develop a range of 150-kilometer tactical missiles. If the CCP attempts to cross the sea to invade Taiwan, the Thunderbolt 2000 will be a powerful tool for anti-landing and anti-boat waves. The National Changshan Institute of Science and Technology, or NCSIST, live-fired at unlimited height. The CCP warships appeared off the coast of East Taiwan. According to the Central News Agency, the NCSIST fired live ammunition on the evening of the 20th, with a maximum ballistic height at two different locations. Although the Navy didn't see the approach of the CCP intelligence ship, a CCP missile escort ship was seen passing off the coast of Changgong, a town in East Taiwan. NCSIST built a new type of ammunition depot to store Xiangfeng anti-ship missiles. In order to strengthen asymmetric warfare, Taiwan's military has accelerated the mass production of various types of precision munitions, including shore-based anti-ship missile systems. According to the latest report, the NCSIST has completed the construction of a ammunition depot that has the ability to resist bombing and other capabilities. In response to the CCP threat, the Legislative Yuan passed the Air and Sea Battlefield Enhancement Procurement Program in November 2021. It provides over US$36 billion over five years from 2022 for the procurement of eight projects, including shore-based anti-ship missile systems, land-based air defense systems, high-efficiency ships, Huanjian missile systems, and unmanned attack vehicle systems. Taiwan extends runway on Nansha's Taiping to allow F-16s to land and take off. According to Taiwan Media, Taiwan will complete the tender for the runway extension project on Nansha Taiping Island this year after receiving approval from the US side. The project will extend the existing 1,150-meter runway to 1,500 meters to provide fighter jets to take off and land when necessary. Military experts say that F-16s need a runway of about 1,000 meters to land, and if the runway at Taiping Island is extended to 1,500 meters, Taiwan's existing fighter jets will be able to take off and land there. Taiwan's National Defense Strategy and Resources Institute director said the extension of the runway on Taiping Island is a symbol of Taiwan-US cooperation and a countermeasure to the CCP's military expansion in the South China Sea. The free world is determined to defend Taiwan, and if the CCP invades Taiwan, it will be isolated. Taiwan won't fight alone. As a prosperous democracy, if the CCP invades Taiwan, the free world will give Taiwan its full support and isolate the CCP. The US has already pledged to assist Taiwan if it is attacked by the CCP. In 1979, former US President Jimmy Carter passed a legislation called the Taiwan Relations Act. The Taiwan Relations Act states that the US will provide Taiwan with defense articles and defense services in such quantities as are necessary to enable it to maintain an adequate self-defense capability. A squadron of US Air Force fighter jets based on the southernmost island of Okinawa, Japan can reach Taiwan in less than an hour. Okinawa has 20,000 US Marines stationed on the island, and a powerful combination of F-15 long-range fighters, alert aircraft squadrons refueling planes, and transport aircraft trained to attack any force attempting to invade Taiwan. A geopolitical expert doesn't think Beijing is in the mood to invade Taiwan. American geopolitical expert George Friedman said, The worst thing for China is to be defeated in a forceful attack on Taiwan, which would affect the stability of its regime. He pointed out that amphibious landing operation is the most difficult task militarily, and China has never attempted it because the risk is too high. China has never taken the risk, they just pay lip service to it. Friedman believes that the nearly two-month war between Russia and Ukraine should have taught Xi Jinping that the US is economically powerful enough to wage war with the American dollar and weaponize it. Just as China faces a resurgence of COVID-19 and a weak economy, Friedman said that China is not in the mood to launch an invasion now.