Nikola Jokic analysis | The 7-foot point guard (2019)

When Nikola Jokic was selected during a Taco Bell commercial in the 2014 NBA draft, he was sleeping in his bed in Serbia. Turns out, it was the NBA who was sleeping on him. Jokic is a doughy 7-foot basketball artist whose creativity on the court rivals anyone in league history. He's nominally a center, but he primarily plays point guard, manning low-speed breaks like a giant rumbling honey bear and dropping dimes like Magic Johnson. And like Magic, Jokic is a passing savant. Note he never looks at his target in order to throw the defense off, and he'll exploit the tiniest advantages in transition opportunities. His outlet passes are the envy of NFL quarterbacks. He's loading this one up mid-rebound, and it's nearly unprecedented for a defensive rebounder to be this dangerous 90 feet from the hoop. It's one thing to ask guards to leak out, but only the best outletters in league history can instantly find their targets and throw strikes like this. His half-court passing is arguably better. He hits roll men in his sleep off a screen-and-roll action, and not only from picking apart the defense up top like this. He'll blend scoring actions into passes, and he'll receive handoffs like a guard, and then feign a floater before lobbying a jump pass. His ability to manipulate defenses is already at master level. This is not a shot. He's creative with his deliveries as well. He knows Will Barton is free here, but needs this help defender to clear out, and he needs a passing angle to deliver this around the brilliant Al Horford. The look-away moves Morris, and jumping gives him a window over the top. Even at 7 feet, he can drive into the teep and lay it down. And even on plays like this, he'll whip his head up into a shooting motion, only to drop it off when the shoplocker commits. Of course, he'll no-look it into the corner too off of his face-up game. Jokic's deliveries are next level. Notice how he moves the ball to the side of Draymond Green because Nikola knows Draymond's hands are going up. He's also a deadly passer when he's the roll man. It seems there are few passes Jokic can't make. Here's a beautiful touch back to the ball handler. And even in these situations, he'll manipulate help defenders into oblivion. Joker's visionary vision makes running half-court offense through him deadly. He feathers in entry passes from the top, and he hits cutters like he has a cheat code. Watch this one again. Jokic needs only momentary eye contact with his target to know the slip is on. Denver's offense is constructed around these kinds of reads, with Jokic picking apart routes like Peyton Manning, understanding what defenses aren't prepared for. Take this play. He knows Boston isn't switching this screening action, so he throws the pass now, when it looks like nothing is open, dropping it into the bucket like a fade route. All of this makes him incredibly difficult to double-team. Send help on his drives, and he'll punish you. And when he backs down weaker opponents, committing a man, even in the cozy confines of the paint, is asking for trouble. Defenses have to be wary of committing, even when it looks like he's shooting. Jokic's passing would lose some potency without a scoring game, and he pressures defenses with an array of post-moves. He'll throw all kinds of nimble spin moves at defenders, and he has a great touch with his hook shots too. He's incredibly creative with release points, here flipping one under Boban, and he'll finish with gentle little high-arkers from all kinds of angles. Much like his passing, he'll fake defenders right out of their shoes, Kevin McHale would approve, and he nullifies athletic advantages of vertical defenders by pumping them out of his way. I also love how he throws his weight around, patiently bullying opponents, or slowly working to get a better spot. Remember, he welcomes a double team in these situations, and he's functionally strong enough to bang into even players like That bowling ball momentum helps him follow shots too. Here, he just bludgeons a guard, but he regularly follows his misses, and Nikola ranks sixth in the league in offensive rebounding rate among players who take at least 10% of their shots from three. Yet, despite his power and bear-like stature, he can come off pin downs like a wing, seamlessly swapping roles with Denver's We can see just how guard-like Jokic is through his passing and scoring metrics. Looking at box creation, an estimate of how many shots a player created for teammates, and passer rating, a 1-10 scale of passing ability, Jokic is just the ninth player ever to score 19 points per 75, on efficiency at least 2% better than the league, with a box creation over 8. Jokic shoots threes as well, he rarely takes long twos, and his career rate of 35% from behind the line is enough to punish defenders who don't respect his range. Those athletic limitations do catch up with him on defense though. This shows up a lot in pick and roll, where he's not agile enough to fully recover at times, and his feet can get crossed up backpedaling where he's not quick enough to handle change of direction. This can show up in closeouts too, where slamming on breaks is tricky, here he's not fully balanced and that contest lifts him right off the ground, leaving an easy layup for Klay. Same thing on this play, he isn't even challenging a shot, it's just that head of steam lifts him right off his toes, and that small hop leaves him in big trouble. He also lacks verticality defending the rim, rarely getting up high to contest shots, his positioning is often solid as it is here, but he's not the kind of athlete to inhale drivers or meet them at their apex. Here he's put in a tough help spot, and in situations like this he'll always default to a ground-based defensive strategy, swiping for the ball or playing the pass. Between his height and long reach, he does have some rim protection, he often targets the ball low, and because he's often in good position, he can occasionally make plays in these spots. Awareness helps him overcome some of these other athletic deficiencies. On this play for instance, Jokic stops the ball, then recognizes the most dangerous threat on the break is the corner three, so he runs Tatum off the line, and the whole thing kind of fizzles out. This play really demonstrates how that vision buoys his defense, he knows the ball is on the opposite wing, so he takes a smart step toward the strong side, allowing him to take away this back door, then immediately hops back into good position, and finally slides down to the rim, reacting well to the pass. Notice how active he is on all these plays, constantly moving and involving himself in the action. This allows him to string together really strong defensive possessions, where he's comfortable switching and recovering, and here he even closes the possession with a block on Giannis. That strength helps him on defense too, here he absorbs LaMarca's Aldridge's incessant bumps, and it helps him too when facing power players in the post. He keeps Joel Embiid at bay here before smothering that pass, and those hands are Jokic's best defensive asset. These things are like snakes constantly sniping at the ball with great precision, Jokic is rarely in foul trouble, and his reaction time and reads are top notch. Jokic constantly rips players with this swipe down move, and by my estimation about 40% of these are erroneously credited as blocks, meaning he should actually have one of the highest steal rates in the league, yet he doesn't gamble too much. Impact metrics paint Nikola as a top 10 player in the league, and it's hard to argue with that. What's notable is that all of these view him as a top 10 offensive weapon, which is atypical for a 7 footer, and it's because he's already the best passing big man in league history, and he's simply the best passer in the NBA today, regardless of position. He does lack the shooting, and in many cases the aggression, of players capable of winning MVP just with their offense, so he sits a rung below them for me as an offensive force, better than all but say 30 players in league history on that end, and yet he still has room to improve there. Though totality of his defense leaves him as a slight positive on that end for me too. He's vulnerable to strong pick and roll or pick and pop teams, and it would be hard to construct a great defense around him, but he has enough positives on that end that he constantly grades out as a plus in impact metrics for a reason. So in 2019, I see Nikola Jokic as a low level MVP player. Next up we will look at another European superstar for some perspective on his season, check out my latest video on stat inflation, it's about comparing statistics across eras. Otherwise, thanks so much to my patrons for supporting me, and I hope you're having a great day.