How Kevin Durant and DeMar DeRozan are winning with the midrange

Despite tearing his Achilles tendon and missing the entire 2020 season, Kevin Durant continues to play at an MVP level thanks to one critical, all-important skill. His shooting. Specifically, his mid-range shooting, which has steadily improved over the years and is now at video game levels and carries some hidden value that isn't captured by traditional stats. More on that in a minute. Durant is in the midst of arguably the best mid-range shooting season since 1997, which was the first year this sort of shooting data was tracked. The data in that first year or two is notoriously wonky, and since 1999, only two players have been 12 percentage points ahead of league average on their two-point shots outside of 10 feet. KD is currently shooting 53% on those shots, which is 13.3 percentage points ahead of the league. Since the average half-court possession in 2022 is worth just under a point, a 53% two-point shot is like getting a typical possession from the best half-court offense in the league. And that's the crazy thing about Durant's mid-range. It just feels like he can manufacture these looks whenever he wants because of that crazy high release on his shot. That's obviously not completely true, but his variety of entry points produces incredibly high volume and efficiency on these mid-range jimmies. If he has room, KD just gets to his spot, and those are the easiest mid-range daggers for him because there's no one bothering his setup or his release. A really long defender has him here, but it doesn't matter because once that hesitation creates airspace, he can rise, fire, and stick it in the vault. Here's another iso against a big defender, and Durant uses a little hop to step back, and his feet are facing the sideline, but he's great at quickly squaring that lead shoulder, and that's actually good defense. He's just too big. One option for opponents is to swipe as Durant brings it up into his shot, and another option is to get up into his airspace as he's releasing it, which disrupts his rhythm a little bit. Because if he's allowed to bounce into his motion and comfortably dip, there's not much a defender can do once he brings it up into that second part of his shot. This looks like a highly contested jumper, but it's entirely in rhythm, and KD is aiming for this spot on the floor, which almost makes it a practice shot despite two nearby defenders. We know he can post up and go over either shoulder with a bit of a fadeaway, which seems especially unfair considering Chewbacca couldn't block his shot, and we know he has that one-legged Dirk move as well. But he also gets into these shots off of movement. This is a curl with one dribble into space, and that's too easy for Durant. This one's off a little backdoor cut, and it's the same situation we saw in Transition, looking for that sweet spot off one big dribble, and even lengthy defenders can't close that distance. Kevin's been flowing off this kind of screen into a catch-and-shoot for years, and it's hard to recover when he gets just a little room like that. Durant isn't the only one crushing the midrange this year. DeMar DeRozan is having a monster season there too. DeMar is only a 28% three-point shooter, so he can't drain long twos like Durant, but DeRozan is white-hot on slightly shorter midrangers. He's at 51% between 10 and 20 feet, and is shooting an insane 57% from 10 to 15 feet away. He's only taken 100 shots from there, but no one has ever crossed the 55% mark with at least 150 attempts since 1997, so DeMar is setting an historic pace from the heart of the midrange. He can get to that foul line area frequently with his handle and athletic package, and he's also sturdy enough to take contact from strong wings and still elevate over a number of defenders. Because he's not a big three-point threat, you'll see teams go under his screens, but that only helps him operate in that foul line area where he's deadly. DeMar has that second three-peat Jordan package going, spinning into a right shoulder fadeaway, and he can get to that exact same move off the left shoulder too, and check out his footwork on these, hopping on that right foot during the spin, which helps rotate the hips and square him in the air. It's not identical to Jordan's spin move, but it is a close relative, and if you squint a little bit, you might think you're watching a 90s Bulls game instead of one in 2022. Heck, DeMar even uses a little face-up pump fake sometimes to freeze his defenders, and older fans might remember MJ using this same kind of move at times. Jordan even threw in a little sidestep hop on his stepback occasionally, and DeMar also goes to a horizontal hop on his stepback, although he prefers taking a big hop step to the right in order to create extra space for a little fadeaway. When the Bulls space the floor for him to attack, DeRozan can sidestep into that open space because of the shooters around him. This works with Zach Levine on the floor, where both players can still operate in their comfort zones. Remember, Levine's slashing for twos or splashing threes off movement, as discussed earlier this year. When Zach heads to the bench, DeRozan naturally does more, and his scoring volume actually surpasses Durant's when James Harden is off the floor, although KD does maintain his efficiency Another benefit of spacing around DeRozan like this is that teams today can't naturally double-team these high-post areas. Defenses are set up to clog driving lanes, but most will gladly surrender a single-covered 15-footer, yet getting below that foul line is pretty high efficiency for DeMar, especially at the end of games. Note how many of these come in the clutch against a single defender? That's just ice cold. And this is the hidden value of these mid-range assassins. As tight games wind down, it becomes harder to score. For instance, the league shoots 45% from the floor in general, but that drops to under 42% in the final two minutes of a three-point game. So having players who can self-generate comfortable looks in those spots is more efficient than the raw numbers would suggest. Additionally, in the final minute or two of a game, the value of a three-pointer often dissipates. If you trail by one in the waning moments, there's little value in the extra point gained from making a three versus a two. These situations won't make a team six or eight wins better, but over the course of a season, they can swing a few close games, and that's been the case for Durant and DeRozan this year. The Nets are plus 41 per 100 possessions in Durant's 57 clutch minutes. That's using the traditional definition of a five-point game in the final five minutes. And the Bulls are plus 15 per 100 in DeRozan's 42 minutes. Let's use a more fluid definition from play-by-play stats. In so-called high-leverage situations, with the game close in the fourth quarter, Durant is 15 of 30 on his mid-range shots, and DeRozan is a scorching 12 for 14. So they're doing it with slightly different styles, but both Kevin Durant and DeMar DeRozan are winning with the mid-range, and yes, that's according to the analytics, too. Remember, no reliable stat ever said the mid-range was inefficient. They just said the mid-range was inefficient for weak shooters. 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