The Warriors 2nd most valuable player | Draymond Green

Draymond Green is one of the most instructional players in NBA history. His scoring game is extremely limited. He struggles to even take advantage of point guards in the post. His outside shot is highly problematic. Teams don't even guard him because he's hit just 21% from downtown in this year's playoffs after bricklaying at 29% in the regular season. And his basic numbers are uninspiring, averaging 7 points and 7 rebounds per game this year, which is a P.J. Tucker statline. But basketball is so much more than just those basic averages. They fail to capture how dangerous Green is in transition. Draymond is basically a point guard in these spots, reminiscent of a young Magic Johnson, where speed itself frenzies defenses into mistakes. Three seconds into the possession, Green is in the paint, and as Portland's recovering, both Curry and Draymond are open, and it leads to a layup. Here it's another three seconds from the time Green touches it until he feathers this ridiculous high-speed bouncer to clay. Off of a made basket, Draymond rams the ball down Houston's throat, pauses briefly with flankers open, and then explodes, creating his own score when the C's part. Again, it's three seconds into the possession before Harden is distracted by Green's mad dash, and he makes Houston pay. Draymond can rebound and initiate the break with a pass, throwing some of the best outlets in the league. A hallmark of great passing is anticipating what will be open, and not waiting to see it open, and Draymond not only throws this early, but it's a strike. Green's passing, in general, is next level. Here he's manning point and preys on Nikola Vucevic's focus, and he's keyed in on Steph Curry's movement, so Green just throws the lob right over his head. Draymond will punish help on drives like this, and his ability to hit cutters in tight windows is bested only by Nikola Jokic. Klay's defender thinks he has this covered, but Green only needs inches. And of course, there's his signature short roll passing, where he shreds teams on these power plays when two defenders occupy Curry. A four on three with one of the best passers on the planet is disaster for defenses. His speed and mobility come into play here too, because he can attack quickly off the catch, exposing these advantages before defenses can recover. A lumbering big allows the defense to rotate to safety, but Draymond's burst forces an instant reaction, and then the pass is perfection. Green's skillset meshes perfectly with Curry, not merely in pick and roll, but also because of his off-ball activity. He needs only the slightest opening to exploit Steph's back cuts, again delivering this early and accurately. He also maximizes Curry's gravity, punishing players when Steph pulls them into his orbit. Sometimes it's a backdoor pass, Green sells the play to Curry while reading the defense's reaction, and this happens again and again with the Splash Brothers. Other times Steph's gravity pulls shooters up top, the threat of a Curry shot here makes this pass easy, but Green aces the advanced reads too, quickly flicking this bullseye after Iguodala brilliantly slips the screen to beat Houston's switching scheme. Overall, Draymond's passing is matched by few players in the entire league, but Green's larger value comes from his defense, where he's been in the running for best defender in the league for years. He's super switchable, able to guard wing players on the perimeter, here he is sliding with point guard Kemba Walker, and this is a doughier Draymond, before dropping 25 pounds at the end of the year and improving his deceleration. Even when heavier, his feet were still light, this shuffling and organizing earned him an appropriate moniker at Michigan State, the Dancing Bear. These quick feet allow him to stay in front of most NBA players, and his reaction time can almost look automated. Lou Williams moves, and the Bear dances in perfect harmony. And even when he loses a step, his 7 foot 1 wingspan widens his sphere of influence. That length allows him to protect the rim well, and he has a fairly unique habit in this era of the verticality rule of jumping backwards to contest shots once he arrives at his spot. He uses quickness to draw close to the driver, then instead of a vertical contest, uses his length to target the ball as he floats backwards. He gets his body moving in the same direction as the attacker, and then discombobulates most players who have a hard time shooting over his reach. Draymond is a master of targeting the ball like this, as players move into their pass or shot motion. Here notice how he instantly elevates and throws up his hands as Oubre brings the ball up for the lob, and this gives you a feel for his hand-eye coordination and reaction time. The moment his man abandons his dribble here, Draymond's tracking the ball and responding accordingly. He'll swipe at the rock too when he smells blood, and his double teams are well timed and can be destructive. But the aggression does come with a small tradeoff, as Green can miss the ball and foul when he's hunting it like this, and his fouling ramps up in the postseason with his playoff aggression, although his minutes are almost never limited by this foul trouble. Green's increased playoff aggression has coincided with an impressive postseason improvement from Golden State's defense over the years. The Warriors have posted one of the best five-year stretches of playoff defense in the three-point era, and their increase from their regular season efficiencies to the playoffs is one of the largest of all time. Draymond is a bit vulnerable to bully ball from giant bangers, and while he's strong enough to hold his ground in most spots, the few physical monsters in the league can do work against him. Fortunately for the Warriors, there aren't many bruising post players in the NBA, and that allows his quickness to excel in help situations. This is an extremely difficult help, with the action in the middle of the floor and shooter spread in the corner, but Green not only sniffs it out, but has the cat-quickness to teleport in front of the cutter and jump back without fouling. Draymond is freakishly good sliding backwards, and he uses this skill to defend lobs like a Jedi—note the little stunt toward the ball before recoiling back to the rim. Also, note that this would have been a layup if Draymond were passing instead of Evan Turner. If Green sees a penetrator pick up the dribble too far out, he essentially concedes a lower percentage floater to cover the lob and defensive rebound. These are instantaneous reads in which he almost always picks the right poison. When the driver is in close, he'll commit hard to the ball, almost never getting caught in no-man's land. This is basketball chess, ladies and gentlemen. When Green steps up, his man should be open, but Draymond Green is a certifiable grandmaster. His ability to protect the paint while pushing pace, and that passing that unlocks movement in the Splash Brothers, means that Golden State can play small-ball lineups and still excel defensively, with few teams able to pick on Draymond. When Golden State has played Green as the lone big man alongside Steph Curry, they've struck lightning in a bottle. Popular sentiment is that the Hamptons 5 or the Death lineup unlocks some talent-rich team that overwhelms opponents, but the secret sauce is largely Curry small-ball lineups plus Green. The Hamptons 5 have outscored opponents by an incredible 22.7 points per 100 over the last three regular seasons, but in 1500 possessions with Green as the only big man on the court and Steph Curry alongside him, Golden State has outscored teams by nearly the same amount with a similar offensive rating, and that's all without Durant, a testament to the incredible synergy Green has with Curry and the Splash Brothers. In the last four regular seasons, Golden State has deployed one of these Steph-Draymond small-ball lineups 13% of the time, but in the playoffs, that number nearly doubles to 24%. Green's regular season impact metrics reflect his immense value to the Warriors. In a hybrid stat like PIPM, he's finished in the top 25 for each of the last five years, and despite falling off in the last two regular seasons, Green has finished in the top two in four of the last five playoffs. His massive value is also captured by box-only metrics, where he's improved in my box-plus-minus model in each of the last five post-seasons, finishing top six in every playoff run. For my money, Kevin Durant is clearly a better overall player, but in the post-season, it's harder to navigate opponents without Green serving as a defensive anchor and unlocking those small-ball combinations, and even though Durant takes the offense to an even higher level, Golden State already has an elite offense without him. Draymond can't carry an offense with his limited scoring. Heck, you don't even want him to be your second-best offensive player. But teams win in the NBA with multiple scorers, and when Draymond's next to a scorer, especially one with off-ball skills, he's a strong all-NBA-level sidekick, and so strong that he's been the second-most important player on one of the greatest teams in NBA history. Thank you to all my new subscribers lately and Patreon supporters who help make this all possible. I hope you're enjoying all the content lately. Newest podcast is on nerds telling NBA players how to play. Link in the description. Otherwise, as always, hope you're having a great day.