Kawhi Leonard analysis | The scoring (centric) machine (2019)

When Kawhi Leonard entered the league, there was hope that he could be an elite 3 and D player with some star potential. And he ended up winning defensive player of the year, but also reworked his jumper to the tune of 38% from downtown. And more than anything, it's that shooting development that's most startling about Kawhi. Let's start from behind the three-point stripe where Kawhi took about a quarter of his shots this year. He launched half of his attempts off of pull-up action like this, hitting them at about 34%, which is right around league average on these shots. The other half of his threes came off catch and shoot, where he's a more dangerous 41% shooter. This is remarkable growth for a player who shot 25% on threes in college. Here's what his shot looked like way back when he entered the league. Note the angle of his feet and how close together they are. Here's what that stance looks like today with a broader, sturdier base, the left foot facing the rim, which helps square his hips to the hoop. His release has totally changed too. Look at the angle of his elbow back then and the longer shot path. Today, it's a shorter, more controlled stroke out in front of his head, and the result is a shot so soft that it will dance on the rim at times. That high release point and some healthy elevation allows him to launch over just about every defender. The shot can look flat, but the trade-off is that it travels a shorter distance, minimizing errors, and this has helped him become a prolific mid-range scorer where he takes about half of all his shot attempts. Philadelphia sagged too far off him in the conference semifinals this year, and Kawhi feasted on these looks, but he also knocks down these shots when covered or on the move. He's comfortable shooting these headed right. Look at how balanced he is, maintaining similar mechanics from his stationary shot. He's strong enough to absorb bumps and get to his spots. Look at how low he is here, almost like he's 5'7 instead of 6'7, and that solid base moves his opponents, but he's completely balanced and still ends up squared to the hoop. He's comfortable fading back to his left too or setting these up with highly controlled spins, but that strength is what I'm most impressed by in Leonard's game. This little hip check throws most players way off balance, but Kawhi absorbs it and explodes right through it. Here he just gets under Kyle Anderson and dislodges him like a ragdoll. This is functional core strength that makes him nearly impossible to move when he dips his shoulder right there or difficult to reroute when he gets an angle. These powerful drives help him generate one of the best free throw rates in the league. Beast mode plays like this or why Jimmy Butler recently called him the strongest player in the NBA. In a game that's defined by verticality, Kawhi excels by staying locked to the floor. While his isolation scoring game is spectacular, his playmaking lags behind. Leonard can make basic passes, but he lacks the vision and anticipation of a good playmaker. He's not mapping the floor here as this five-on-three develops. Instead, he waits until he actually sees the opportunity to make this pass, then intelligently uses the look away to deliver it. For example, he can't see this corner pass, but he should know all of Philly's defenders are accounted for. This one's a little better. Head up, sees the window open, and this is a great idea. The delivery is a little low and Siakam nabs it. His execution can be a bit off at times. The easier play here is to loop this over the top, especially with the defender's hands down, but this bouncer's low and Ibaka can't handle it. Here's a nice bit of playmaking where he hits an open man when three defenders collapse on him. Notice his head, though. He's thinking score until the up fake, then he starts looking around to locate Siakam. This is a textbook sign of subpar vision, and as a result, Leonard really only tries what's right in front of him. And this is the best kind of pass he makes, where the opportunity is already in his line of sight As a result, Kawhi struggles passing back out to the perimeter. This play is just a mess. After bypassing a pull-up here, he briefly has Ibaka on the pop, but doesn't realize he's diving and it's another ugly turnover. On this play, he has Marc Gasol wide open at the stripe, but takes an extra dribble or two, feels like the opening is lost, and airmails one trying to reverse it. Kawhi has a habit of over-dribbling like this, often probing for jumpers while bypassing open teammates. All great scorers do this, but Leonard's on the high side, bleeding time of possession that can limit a team's offensive efficiency. Sometimes an extra dribble or two can erase an advantage. Here, three magics form to the ball, but Kawhi's not comfortable firing to the roller or the kick out, and this soft pass fizzles the play out. These passing limitations show up in the data when compared to historically great volume scorers, where Kawhi is closer to Bernard King or Adrian Dantley than a playmaking heavy wing like Michael Jordan. On defense, he's the claw for a reason, owning some of the best hands in league history, but it's not really swipe downs with those giant mitts that foil opponents, it's his seven-foot-three reach. His biography should be the art of the steel. Kawhi's long arms are crossover killers, and the timing on these plays is perfect. He waits until the dribbler is about to release the rock before deploying his hands, and he reaches balls most players can't without fouling. This rip is almost unfair. He's also world-class at helping down off his man against penetrators, and there's a cerebral quality to Leonard's defense, like reading the inbounder here or tracking the eyes of an entry passer to blow up the play. That long wingspan gets in passing lanes, too, and all of this is why Kawhi's in the top 20 in the league in steel rating. He does gamble and miss every so often when jumping the passing lanes, but when he's locked in, his ball denial can be spectacular, even against shifty jitterbugs like Eric Bledsoe, and yet he's strong enough to hold off bigs in the post. He guarded Jokic for long stretches of this game, and it didn't always work, but this versatility comes in handy when switching, allowing Kawhi to guard a number of bigs, and it's helpful in certain matchups, too. For instance, Ben Simmons bullies most opponents here, but he can't budge Leonard at all. That strength comes in handy when powering through screens, and most of his screen navigation is really impressive in general. There are two knocks that I see on Kawhi's defense. First, he doesn't always step up to help at the rim vertically. He'll sort of disregard nearby penetrators like this at times, and his helps at the hoop aren't always early or impactful. He's a touch late here, and the play ends up in free throws for Joel Embiid. It's not that he can't vertically protect the rim, but this is just rare now. He had only 24 blocks this year. Second, and related to this, is a relatively low involvement rate. Now, some of this comes from idling on weaker players, but it's also a conservation of energy play. He doesn't really go hard or fly around the court much anymore, and with his engines revving low, he won't work to undo mistakes. For example, after a miscommunication on this screen, he doesn't scramble to provide extra help, which is typical, and it shows up again here in this zone where his motor's just sort of on standby. He was overly relaxed on a few handoffs like this against Philly, and some of this just comes with an increased offensive burden. Impact metrics don't really think much of his defense at all, universally viewing him as a neutral impact defender, which suppresses some of the overall metrics you see here, but I think that undersells him based on all of his positive traits. It's normal for defensive metrics to be a little noisy for wings, and Kawhi's playoff mode is slightly better than his regular season one. His more remarkable playoff upgrade is on the scoring end, where he's gone from elite to all-time good. Swapping in his playoff numbers would have landed him in the 99th percentile this year in scoring and efficiency, echoing what he did in San Antonio in the 2017 playoffs. However, his lack of playmaking prevents him from joining the conversation about the game's best offensive players, and as a result of that, in 2019, for me, I view Kawhi Leonard as a weak MVP-level player. A big welcome to all of you who are recent subscribers. Here's where you can check out my other basketball-related content online. Also, a big thanks to all my new Patreon supporters. You can now access those Patreon-only posts over at backpicks.com with your Patreon login, and as always, I hope you're all having a great day.