CJ McCollum debates Jimmy Butler’s scoring in the NBA Finals

And the court tonight, because huge Game 3 NBA Finals, it tips off in Miami. These two teams last played on Sunday, where Nicoli Oakes dropped a big 41-piece, but it wasn't enough. Miami outscored Denver by 11 in the fourth quarter to win by three. Now you know the Nuggets now head on the road, where this postseason they are 4-3 compared to 9-1 at home. They've struggled defensively, allowing 10 more points per game on the road as well. But if Denver can win tonight, history says they'll be in control of the series all time. The Game 3 winner of a 1-1 final series goes on to win 80% of the time. So with that said, guys, let's talk about Game 3. Tonight, Alan Hahn, in your opinion, which team needs a win more tonight? Is it the Heat? Is it the Nuggets? The Denver Nuggets. This is a virtual must-win for them, for many reasons. Now we know, again, this is not actual must-win because you're not facing elimination. I get that stuff. But when you just look at it from an aerial view, just top-down, take a look at what's going on in this series, where's the momentum right now? It is all with Miami. It has been since the fourth quarter of Game 1. And if Denver loses this game, the questions really start to build up. Michael Malone has already called out his team on the podium. What more can he do if they lose another game? They've already had a film session where players called each other out. What more can they do at that point if they lose this game? You know what happens? The questions start to creep in. You know what else happens? The scrutiny comes with it as well. Because here's a team that no one talked about throughout the playoffs. It was always who they were playing. You had Phoenix and Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. And then, of course, you had the Lakers and LeBron and A.D. And can LeBron get them to another finals? It was never about the Nuggets. Now it is. You are the favorite. You are supposed to win. And if you go down 2 to 1 in this series, oh, they'll be talking about you. Must win for Denver. CJ, you've been in this position. Is it a must win for Denver tonight? I think it's a must win from an approach standpoint. I think he touched on a lot of important things here. Looking at what's at stake. They blew a 15-point lead. Everyone's talking about how the Nuggets are favored to win this series. Mike Malone has talked about how they haven't been talked about enough this year. They're being talked about now. They're in the finals. They have home court advantage. They let one slip away, honestly. If we're being honest here, they let Gabe Vinson get hot. Shrews get hot. And a lot of role players stepped up for Miami to win the game. So I think this is a must win from a mentality standpoint, an approach standpoint, because they came into your house and they beat you when you had a 15-point lead. Now you're going into their house and you have to respond and really make sure that your players understand what's at stake. I think Mike Malone understands the sense of urgency they have to have. Because if you go down 2-1 in Miami for game four, it could be ugly. Zach, what do you think? I don't think it's a must win just because they have home court advantage. But I agree with what the guys are saying. This is a moment for the Nuggets. They let one get away at home. And you cannot give the Heat an opening. Because if you give them an opening, they smash through it with a sledgehammer and come for your throat. And I think if they lose tonight, this is the first time the Nuggets would have trailed in a series. This is the first time we'll see them under big pressure. So it's not a must win because they have five and seven looming at home. They've got a lot of chances to get one road win. I'm not going to go must win. But I agree, this is a big moment. Their first major test of the playoffs, at least since game five against Phoenix in the second round. And that's exactly what I think I'm talking about, Zach, is why it becomes that feeling of must win. Because they haven't been here before. They really have had, I'm not going to say easy, but fairly easy road here. They've played two play-in teams. Now they're playing a third play-in team, by the way, in this run. And they have always kind of been the team that everybody else is chasing. That series got to 2-2 against Phoenix. Why? Because Devin Booker was otherworldly in those two games in Phoenix. But it never felt like momentum was shifting in that series. I think this is the first time where you'll see Denver start to question themselves. And people question them on the outside, but there'll be some of that curiosity on the inside is, is this team good enough? But when you start talking about effort, which is what Michael Malone's been talking about, and on your terrific podcast, Low Post podcast, with you and Tim Legler, the most recent one, I love both you guys. I think Leg said it. They're at 70%. Denver is only playing 70% so far in this series. But he asked the question, can they get to 100? Will Miami let them? So there's a lot at stake for Denver if they lose this game. It's only a 2-1 deficit, yes. But still, think about all of the avalanche of scrutiny, inside and out, that comes with losing this game. Denver really hasn't had a moment of truth at all in this postseason at all. And this is it here tonight. You know, CJ, you look at the Nuggets, and they are 0-3 when Jokic has scored 40 points or more in the playoffs. So did the Heat find, you think, a blueprint for defending Jokic and Denver in that game two? I love what Spose said after game two. He talked about the untrained eye. And that was a great adjective to kind of describe what we're seeing here. You can't stop Joker. Joker gets what he wants. He scores around the basket. I think Dame talked about it. It's like he never misses. Open shots, he makes them. No facial reactions, no facial expressions. Even when Jamal Murray missed that game winner, he clapped his hands as if that was a good shot. It almost went in. I think for the Miami Heat, they looked at this team and this roster and said, Joker's going to get his. How do we limit Jamal Murray? Put Jimmy Butler on him. How do we limit shooting from Michael Porter Jr., shooting from KCP, Bruce Brown? We run more zone. They implement Kevin Love into the starting lineup. Those were key changes that changed the pace of the game. And then it allowed their best defenders to guard the Denver Nuggets best players and hope that the likes of the royal players would not show up. And tonight, that'll be an interesting test to see how much zone Spose runs at home. You know what? You talk about the alphabet guys, right? MPJ and KCP and everybody else. Those are the guys to me that matter most here. What Jokic is doing in scoring, that 0 and 3 number is really weird on many levels. So the first number that you look at is, all right, they lost. It's not because he's scoring 40 and not passing. It's because if you look, in those three games, two of them in the playoffs are the worst defensive games they have played. So what happens to them defensively? Is it because other guys aren't involved? And CJ, I don't know what happens to guys. I know this. It's amazing when the three-point shot goes down, you become a way better defensive team. When the three-point shot is not going down, you have a lot harder time playing defense. They were not good defensively in two of those three games. That is first and foremost. But limiting Jokic's passing is something to watch here. Because up until through game one, he's averaging like 82 passes a game, leads the playoffs by far. In game two, he only threw 66 passes. So everyone else not getting involved, the bigger part of this story. They're not letting Jokic score. In fact, their number one goal on defense is to not let him get the ball in the first place. They're fronting the post every single chance they get to try to deny him the ball. And when he gets it, that's when the chess match starts up. They help a little bit. They slide here and there. They try to confuse the Nuggets. Are they doubling? Are they not doubling? This whole idea of their letting Jokic score is not what they're doing. What they are doing is mixing up their defense every single time down, trying to prevent him from getting the ball, trying to confuse the Nuggets, trying to take their role players out of the game. And I think tonight, we'll see the Nuggets' role players move around a lot more when Jokic has the ball in the post, more off-ball screens, more stuff to just get things moving. And I want to just change the subject real quickly. We're talking a lot about the Nuggets and who needs the game more. We all say the Nuggets do. It's a big test for them. This is really a compliment to the Heat. What we're doing is complimenting the Heat. Spoh was right. You want to play on Mount Everest? You want to play on Mars? They do not care. And I think that's why we're all picking in the Nuggets tonight. Because if the Heat lose, they don't care. They're not going to be rattled. They're going to come out and play again the next game and the next game and the next game. That's absolutely right. And that's what Miami does is we've seen it throughout the whole playoffs. They force you to be at your best. They force you to play your best. Because if you don't and you leave the door open, we're bursting through it. And so that's what Denver's facing right now. Like Legg said, they're only at 70%. Are you good enough? Can you get to 90%? Hey, ask the Bucs, ask the Celtics. The Heat are for real. Good Wednesday morning. Welcome back to Get Up. Looking ahead to game three tonight. Let's roll through some over-under. Zach Lowe, will Jamal Murray have over-under 24.5 points tonight? I hate to doubt the blue arrow, but it's more about Miami. I'm going under. Jimmy Butler is going to hound him. I think he'll have a good game. But I think if the Nuggets win tonight, it's going to be more about the shooters making shots. So I'll go slight under, like, 21-22. OK. Alan Hahn, will Bam Adebayo have over-under 28.5 points, rebounds combined? Combined, you're making me do math. No, I'm going to say over. He's averaging 23 and 11 so far in the first two games of this series. He's getting what he wants. A good matchup series for him. So I can see him give me at least another 20-10. All right, DraftKings Sportsbook Predictions is brought to you by DraftKings. So Jay, will Jimmy Butler score 26 or more points? I think Jimmy Butler will have under 26 tonight. But I think, once again, Jimmy Butler in the fourth quarter is when he needs to shine the most. And we keep talking about points, but the job he did on Jamal Murray in game two defensively is truly why we should be talking about Jimmy Butler. Listen, if the Heat are going to win tonight, they certainly are going to need more out of Jimmy Butler. After averaging over 28 points on 48%, shooting in the first three rounds of the playoffs, the numbers in this series against Denver, way, way down. But Butler doesn't seem all that worried about scoring. I'm not a scorer. Just because I score a lot of points one game, that doesn't make you a scorer. I'm not a volume shooter. I don't do any of that. If I pass the ball every possession, if we win, I don't care. If I shoot the ball every possession and we win, I don't care. This playoff with Jimmy narrative, it's not a thing. I love what he's doing there. Because he's basically saying, look, I'm just a hooper. In other words, don't put me in a box. I don't want you all to say I'm just a scorer. I don't want you guys to say I'm just a facilitator. He wants to write his own narrative. He certainly had a slow start here to the finals, Jay. Do they need more scoring, though? Once again, he says that. Then we asked, do we need more scoring from Jimmy Butler? So we just constantly contradict ourself. He had nine assists in game two. That led to 17 made threes. He's a player. CJ, I'd be curious to hear what you think about this. A lot of times, in traditional senses, oh, you're a point guard. You're a shooting guard. You're a power forward. No, you're a basketball player who makes basketball plays and you make reads. And I think that's what Jimmy Butler is great at on the offensive end. But he's also great at making reads on the defensive end. And we just marginalize that. Because he's not dropping 50 a game. All of a sudden, he doesn't have a major purpose when he does, when he's performing at a high level on both ends of the floor. Jimmy's 100% right in terms of him not being a volume scorer. He's a guy that can score when he's asked to do it. He has a mid-post game. He gets to the free-thrower line. But there is a playoff, Jimmy, because of the way he plays and the way he strategically attacks. During the regular season, Jimmy is very good. Very good, he helps the team win. In the playoffs, he is great. He takes more three-pointers. He averages 27 points per game. He's averaging 24 points per game in the NBA Finals in his career. That's eight or nine NBA Finals games. The way he impacts the game, you look at the amount of 35-plus point games he's had since Terry Rozier is in the league. Terry Rozier has more regular season 35-point games. And shout out to my guy, Terry Rozier, being from Ohio. My point is, Jimmy takes his game to another level once the playoffs occurs in terms of his intensity, the way he plays, the way he defends, the way he leads. They don't need him to score. They need him to do everything else, which is what he's done throughout this entire playoffs. We're just not seeing the 45, 50-point games that we've seen earlier this year that he needed to do to get them to this point. But he's crazy to say that playoff Jimmy is not a thing. He's lying. It's a thing. You know what it is? It's like Fight Club. The first rule about your playoff, Jimmy, is we don't talk about playoff Jimmy, because you don't know when it's gonna happen. And that's the best part of playoff Jimmy, is that he will just detonate. And that's the scariest part when you're an opponent, because ask the Bucs. You can feel like, okay, we got this, this is under control, and then boom, here comes playoff Jimmy. So he doesn't wanna talk about it, because if he talks about it, then we all talk about it. And what do we do? When is he coming? You know about game time, right? Well, when is it playoff Jimmy time? Or playoff Jimmy didn't show up at this moment when the Heat needed him most. So don't talk about it, but you know it's coming at some point. In this series, you need playoff Jimmy if they're gonna win. I think the other thing that we're not mentioning is the fact that his load was crazy in the first, look at the first series, the second series, and third series. What he had to accomplish, playing on a bum ankle, coming back, not really talking about the ankle, but we know it's bothering him and that it's impacted him throughout this series. Other guys are stepping up, other guys are making shots, and if the Heat role players continue to perform the way they performed, the Miami Heat are going to win the final. But isn't this, real quick, isn't this something beautiful that we want from our superstar athletes? Like, we always make it about the individual, and Jimmy's sitting there saying, no, this is about us. So when you start talking about playoff Jimmy, all the attention becomes about Jimmy Butler. Instead of the same way when CJ says role players, he states, we don't have role players. These are my teammates. You're not gonna hear me say role players. So that sense of community is what makes him unique and different as well. Zach, put a bow on this. Yeah, we should listen to Jimmy Butler when Jimmy Butler talks. Throw out the averages for the finals. It's been two games. He had a subpar game one and a really good game two. Yeah, he didn't detonate, he didn't go for 35. 21 points, nine assists, controlled the pace of the game, clutch bucket, and oh yeah, defended the second best player on the other team at an A plus level. That's a really good game, and there's been a lot of discussion as if he just sort of had no impact on the game. That said, they gotta win four times. They got one with Jimmy Butler playing like that. They got three to go. I think one of those three is gonna have to be one of those monster playoff Jimmy 35, 40 point games. I think maybe he's right. They don't need him all the time, playoff Jimmy this and that. I think at least once they're gonna need that guy to carry them over the finish line if they're gonna get four against a team this good. I would say, look, if Miami loses this game tonight, then all of a sudden it puts a lot of pressure on them and Denver regains home court advantage, right? So odds are in favor of Denver. If Miami wins this game tonight, I think it relieves a lot of pressure. So I think, because if Miami wins this game tonight, they know they're going to take the biggest punch from Denver considering how Denver typically responds to lack of defensive effort. And hearing Michael Malone talk about this, this has been an ongoing thing the second half of the season for the Nuggets, right? Typically they respond. So if you can beat them when you know they're gonna give their best punch, I think this could take a lot out of the wins of the sales of the Denver Nuggets. So I would say Miami. I think Miami getting that first game at home is critical. See, I disagree. So for all the reasons you just said, I just think this is what makes it a must-win for Denver, a virtual must-win. Because they need to get back some momentum. They need to get back what everybody was saying when they were an eight-point favorite in game one and an eight-point favorite in game two. They're at almost a three-point, they're really two and a half for game three now. On the road, people are still believing in them. That's out the window if they lose this game. Everybody now starts to see what Miami's doing. We better start buying into this. And oh, by the way, maybe Denver and their road to the finals, maybe it wasn't as hard. And maybe they're now meeting a team that is just playing harder than them, playing tougher than them, and they can't match up to it. All the questions start to come in. Miami loses this game, they could still win game four and even up this series for all the reasons you just said. I don't think those are questions anymore. Miami did play harder than the Denver Nuggets. Like the Denver Nuggets schedule, who they played against is who they played against. I think this is actually one of the most challenging match-ups. Who do you believe is gonna win game three? Just believe. I think Denver will win game three. I do, but at the same time, Miami wins game three. I'm not sitting here saying nobody can expect Miami to win. People believe Miami can win this series, don't you? No, no, but you just said it. Your belief in Denver, for me, collectively, It still doesn't waver if they lose game three, though. You still believe in Denver in this series of two-one? Yes, yes. After losing two games in the fourth quarter? Wouldn't you still potentially believe in Miami if Miami were down two-one? Like, why is it different? I think Denver has the best player in this series, so no matter what the series is, we feel like Joker is good enough to put them over the hump. We talked about playoff Jimmy. Playoff Joker, regular season Joker, this guy is unstoppable, and I think you look at the fact that they're favored on the road after blowing a 15-point lead. That shows you that the rest of the world believes that Joker is good enough to win and good enough to go get 40, although they're 0-3 when he does it. I think him controlling the game is enough for me to say, even if Miami go up two-one, I still think Denver's gonna win the series because they have the best player. Zach, I wanna hear your perspective. Yeah, look, it's the NBA Finals. Both teams need this game urgently. There's only five games left, maximum, in the NBA season. Whoever loses tonight is not gonna be out of the Finals. Throw out the 80% win game three stat. That, you can say that for every game. I wanna say something else. We gotta stop taking these little, subtle shots at, oh, the Nuggets had an easy road to the Finals. They're the number one seed in the conference. Their first round is supposed to be easy. Check. Their second round, they were Vegas underdogs, and I think 11 of 17 ESPN.com people who picked the series picked Phoenix. And the Lakers, we spent the entire season talking about the Lakers and the entire last 25 games talking about how dangerous are the Lakers, how far can the Lakers get. Can LeBron win a title? What would a title mean for LeBron James' legacy? Then the Nuggets sweep their butts out of the Playoffs, and all of a sudden, the Nuggets had a cakewalk to the Finals. Stop, stop, stop. They beat two play-in teams, a third play-in team, and it's one-one in the Finals. There you go, there you go. It is what it is. This is what happens when you get there, y'all. It is what it is. I love that quote. That quote sounded like Michael Malone over there. I love it, I love it, that's fantastic. Miami Heat lost their first play-in game to the Atlanta Bronx. They got smacked, and now they're in the Finals. How about that? Max Strews got him out of the second play-in game. By the way, he got smacked at home. Not just lost, lost at home. You're right about that.