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"China has been playing hard to get for the last several months and they would not talk. Now, they sort of relented. And so, they agreed to talk with American high-level cabinet members on matters that are vital to both nations' economies. The reason why they relented is because China's economy is in big trouble, and they need the West much more than the West needs China."
In this episode, I speak with Miles Yu, who heads the China Center at the Hudson Institute and served as former adviser on China to U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. We discuss U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's trip to China, its possible outcomes, and the current state of China's economy and standing in the international community.
"I don't have much hope or expectation for a comprehensive solution after this trip. But, at least it's something that the Biden administration has tried to do," says Mr. Yu. "The only way to win for the United States and for the rest of the world is for China to change its behavior, pure and simple."
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is heading to China, is actually in China as we speak.
She's going to be meeting with the vice premier, with some other high level officials. What
do you see happening here? What is the plan?
I think the plan is to work with the Chinese economic team, headed by the Chinese new premier
Li Chang, to work out a workable relationship with China on the economic and trade front.
Mostly, we're talking about to establish a new set of rule that will ensure a fair relationship
with China economically and trade wise. So, there are a lot of obstacles, and I think
China has been playing hard to get for the last several months, and they would not talk.
Now, they sort of relented, and so they agreed to talk with the American high level cabinet
members on matters that are vital to both nations' economies. The reason why they relented
is because China's economy is in big trouble, and they need the West much more than the
West needs China. So, they actually know, they're being a little bit more realistic
this time.
If the issue is really about trade in your mind, why not send the US trade representative?
I think there are different issues involved here. Secretary Yellen has been talking about
the global stability of a financial system, and I think China plays a very important role
in that global financial economic stability. I think trade representative will, yes, deal
with trade, but trade is a little bit more on the practical side, and I think Secretary
Janet Yellen probably is going to touch on more of the systemic and institutional issues.
That's why I think she's there. She's a seasoned official in the US government, having served
before in the Obama administration, but now she goes there with more of a gravitate, shall
we say. And I think, hopefully, China will reciprocate her goodwill and come up with
some kind of very specific, critical solution, not just blaming everybody for China's woes.
Okay. So, we've gotten some reports that some of the issues on the table are working together
on things like climate change and alleviating the debt burden from developing countries.
Are you aware of this, and what do you think? So that's more of the policy issue. I think
the China challenge, the China threat, covers a much wider spectrum than just climate change.
I think it's a mistake to place climate change above many other issues that are much more
pressing. And I think, for example, the war and peace in the Indo-Pacific, particularly
in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait, and China's global posture
on matters that affect human society, particularly the war in Ukraine. China sided with the wrong
side of history. So, I think those issues are much, much more important. China right now
is acting like an ostrich sticking its head in the sand. I mean, it doesn't really care what the rest
of the world thinks about its own behavior and how serious the issue has become if China doesn't
play the game. I don't have much hope, expectation for a comprehensive solution after this trip. But
at least it's something that the Biden administration has tried to do. And the talk itself
sometimes perhaps is more important than the substance of the talks, because the two countries
were fundamentally in disagreement on some of the major issues, not only human rights, but also on
the principles guiding China's policy, foreign and domestic.
Yeah, maybe if you could expand on that a little bit. Before I ask you more about the Chinese
economy, which you say is in dire straits, tell me a little bit about some of these issues that
you've outlined. Well, for example, China wanted to benefit from the international free trade system,
which has enabled and empowered the Chinese Communist Party tremendously in the last 20, 30
years. But the Chinese Communist Party does not want to abide by the fundamental rules and
regulations of free trade system, not only in terms of a completed control of access to Chinese
market, but also China use that control, that iron group on the Chinese economic sector as a
bargaining chip to force the international free market democracies to comply with China's
draconian models of governance. So that's a problem. For example, on privacy issue, on
surveillance, on real and authentic economic data, upon which the foreign companies make their
investment decisions in China. So China must abide by those rules. And China basically wantonly
impose export control on some particular rare earth, for example, without any particular reason.
I mean, yes, China has been sanctioned on many fronts, but every time China is sanctioned,
it's because of its own bad deeds, right? Either human rights violation in Xinjiang, or basically
egregious infringement upon Hong Kong's autonomy and freedoms. China joined the World Trade
Organization some 20 years ago with some solemn promises of following the rules of international
trade. Very few of them have been sort of followed through by the Chinese. That's why
I think it's about time for the entire world to reconsider that decision of China's membership
in WTO. But that's a longer discussion. And just a quick reminder, we still have our
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