Les frappes entre Israël et Liban qui inquiètent

Shots intensified at the border between Israel and Lebanon since the attack of Hamas on October 7th. Dozens of thousands of civilians were forced to leave the area, whether on the Israeli side or on the Lebanese side. And while the Israeli army continues its attack on Gaza, we'll talk about it right after, could a war also break out between Israel and Lebanon? Hi, it's Hugo, I hope you're doing well. This is the subject of one of the news of the day. So, on October 8th, the day after the murderous attacks of Hamas in Israel, the Hezbollah, an Islamist Lebanese political party and an ally of Hamas, claimed several shots against Israel, Israel which then reposted. The Hezbollah is a very influential and important political movement in Lebanon. It's also a terrorist organization, according to the European Union and many other countries. And so, the fighting intensified in recent days in the north of Israel, at the border with Lebanon, while once again, for everyone to know, the Gaza Strip is located in the south of Israel. This Monday again, Israel published a statement saying that several exchanges of fire at the border between Israel and Lebanon had taken place, but that during this last attack, no casualties were reported. So, according to the Israeli government, it's more than 1,000 ammunition that have been fired on Israel by the Hezbollah since October 7th, coming from Lebanon. On the Lebanese side, the Le Monde newspaper estimates that the south of the country regularly undergoes more than 30 Israeli shots per day. In other words, there are exchanges of fire on both sides. And because of these shots, the Israeli and Lebanese populations who live close to the border had to be evacuated. On the Lebanese side, it's almost 29,000 people who have been displaced, according to the UN. And on the Israeli side, the Israeli government estimates that it's more than 70,000 people who have been evacuated and who now live in hotels in the center of Israel. And in this case, even if we hear less about it, well, these shots have killed many people. At least 90 people have been killed in the south of Lebanon for most of the Hezbollah fighters. There are also 11 civilians, so 11 inhabitants, according to an AFP count. Knowing that on the Israeli side, the figure is 6 soldiers and 2 civilians killed, according to the authorities. In short, the strikes have intensified in recent days. But still, is Israel and Lebanon at risk of going to war with each other? Well, for that, you have to note a speech. The speech that was held on November 3rd by Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, who held his first speech, in fact, since the 7th of October attack. During this speech, about two weeks ago, he estimated that the prospect of a total war was realistic. He had also, in a way, threatened Israel by saying, I quote, you will make the worst mistake if you try an offensive against Lebanon. A few days later, on November 11th, he spoke again. He promised that the front between Israel and Lebanon would remain open as long as the Israeli operation in Gaza was underway. In other words, as long as the Israeli army is present in Gaza, Hezbollah promises to continue striking. He also claimed to have reinforced attacks by using, in particular, new weapons. And in the face of this, the Israeli Defense Minister warned Hezbollah by declaring, I quote, what we can do in Gaza, we can also do it in Beirut. Beirut being the capital of Lebanon. So it's obviously an extremely important threat. But that said, once we've said all that, well, according to a lot of specialists in this region, neither of the two actors has any real interest in starting a real war and a real conflict between the two. So how to explain it? Already, on both sides, the two countries are probably thinking about the war that opposed Israel to Hezbollah during the summer of 2006. At the time, this 33-day war had led to the death of more than 1,200 people on the Lebanese side and 160 people on the Israeli side. By the way, on the Lebanese side, there are several things to know. Already, Hezbollah is largely supported by Iran. The thing is that at the moment, Iran does not necessarily have the intention or the desire to go to war directly against Israel. The reason is that Iran is negotiating in parallel with the United States an agreement on nuclear power. And so, going to war against Israel would be an even more important source of tension between Iran and the United States, which could compromise this agreement. In other words, Iran would not necessarily have any interest in pushing Hezbollah into this war against Israel. In addition, another element that could prevent Hezbollah from going to war is the criticism within its population. Indeed, some support Hezbollah in its strikes, but others believe that Lebanon is already facing a major crisis, an economic crisis in particular, which is extremely important. And so, according to some of the population, a war would only aggravate the situation for the Lebanese. So that's the Lebanese side. Now, on the Israeli side, it should be noted that if the Israeli army really goes to war against Lebanon, well, it would have two fronts to deal with. One in the south, in Gaza, and one in the north, with Hezbollah. There is therefore an internal debate, including within the Israeli government. Some ministers are in favor of more significant strikes, which shows that there is still a form of hesitation on the part of the Israeli government today. What must be noted for the context is that Hezbollah is visibly more equipped than Hamas. The United States estimates that Iran gives several hundred million dollars per year to Hezbollah. Hezbollah has at least 150,000 rockets and missiles, some of which are provided by Iran. In short, Hezbollah has significant technical and human resources, which means that in the event of a conflict, the damage could be extremely significant on both sides. You got it, big and growing tensions throughout the days. And yet, well, no large-scale war as we might hear. Some estimate that it is quite unlikely today. We will see what it is. I put links in the description for you to know more. So, before giving the floor to Blanche for the news in short, some information on the situation in the Palestinian territory of Gaza. First of all, the situation at the Al-Shifa hospital, where hundreds of people were refugees and where the Israeli army held a siege because it suspects Hamas to hold a command center in the hospital basement. So, according to the WHO, on Monday morning, there were still people in the hospital. And to try to justify his entry into this hospital, the Israeli army broadcast videos of what it says to be a 55-meter-long tunnel with an armored door at the bottom that would belong to Hamas. The Israeli army also broadcast a video that would be dated October 7 and where we see people that Israel considers to be hostages. In parallel, it should be noted that the situation remains critical in this hospital. The World Health Organization speaks, I quote, of a death zone. Children and 29 premature babies in particular have been evacuated to Egypt. Emmanuel Macron also announced this weekend that France was going to host sick or injured children from Gaza in these hospitals. It could concern up to 50 children. Moreover, this weekend, we can note that a school managed by the United Nations has also been bombed, according to the United Nations, which denounces images, I quote, of fear. The situation is still extremely critical for the inhabitants of Gaza. There is still a lack of everything, whether it is food, drinking water, electricity or fuel. We will make a more detailed point on the situation tomorrow and on the important risks for the population. Second news that we can note, an agreement on the release of the 240 hostages still held by Hamas would be underway. This is indicated by Qatar, which participates in negotiations with other countries, including the United States. This agreement could provide for the release of about 50 hostages in exchange for a 4 to 5-day break from the Israeli military operation and also in exchange for the release of about 50 Palestinian women and children held in prisons in Israel. However, Hamas denied the imminence of an agreement. In other words, all of this remains very vague about the fate of Israeli and foreign hostages held by Hamas, while thousands of Israelis have demonstrated this weekend to ask the Israeli government to act. We will obviously talk about all of this again this week. I leave you with Blanche for the news. In short, and I'll be right back. Thank you Hugo and hello everyone. We start with this news. An emergency aid of 600 euros minimum will be paid by the Family Allocation Fund, the CAF, from December 1 for all victims of marital violence. The purpose of this aid is to raise the obstacle of money for a person who is trying to escape his aggressor. It should be noted that on average, a victim goes back and forth between the moment she decides to leave her home and the moment she really leaves. This aid could be obtained by phone or online between 3 and 5 days and its amount could be increased if the victim has children, for example. The number of victims of marital violence recorded in 2022 increased by 15% compared to 2021 according to the figures of the Ministry of the Interior. 86% of these victims are women. Second news, the Regional Health Agency confirmed its recommendation issued in April not to consume the eggs of domestic poultry from Île-de-France. The reason is that these eggs could contain several dangerous pollutants for health. This is in any case the conclusion of a study conducted on 25 domestic poultry located in 410 cities in the Paris region. In fact, in these poultry farms, breeding is generally done on bare ground and therefore the hens will consume, for example, worms and larvae. And so if there is pollution in the soil, they will keep pollutants in their body and transfer them to their eggs. So be careful, the study does not concern all the eggs of Île-de-France. You can always consume eggs, especially commercial egg production, so non-domestic breeding. Third news, still in France, in the department of the Drôme, a 16-year-old teenager was stabbed in the night from Saturday to Sunday at a village party. In fact, a ball was organized in a party room. There were about 350 people. During the evening, a group erupted in the room. At least 4 people were injured. According to the first elements collected by the police, the arrival of the attackers was probably premeditated and, I quote, may be related to a settlement. In any case, an investigation has been opened for homicide and attempted homicide in organized crime. No one has been arrested at the moment. We will keep you informed. Fourth news, we will talk about Argentina, which has a new president. This is the ultra-liberal economist Javier Milei, the anti-system candidate who was elected this Sunday at 55.7% of the votes. He therefore beat his opponent Sergio Massa, the current minister of the Argentine economy. So Javier Milei promised rapid reforms to straighten up the economy of Argentina, which is facing a very important economic crisis, with inflation, therefore a general price increase, reaching 143%. He wants to cut public spending, remove many social benefits, but above all close the central bank and abandon the Peso, which is the currency of Argentina, to replace it with the American dollar. It should be noted that he is also known for his climate-sceptic, anti-abortion positions, and his mental health also worries. In an interview, he recently stated to hear small voices on television. Fifth news, almost a year, day by day, after the launch of the conversational robot ChatGPT, Sam Altman, the CEO and co-founder of OpenAI, his mother's house, was fired this Friday, to the general surprise. The reason mentioned by OpenAI is that Sam Altman, I quote, had not always been frank in his communications with the board of directors, making a fuss about his ability to fulfill his responsibilities. Following this announcement, several managers of the company announced their resignation, including the president of the board of directors, Greg Brockman. Finally, we learned this Monday, Sam Altman was hired by Microsoft, which is a privileged partner and a major investor in OpenAI. He will lead a new research team in artificial intelligence. In any case, the story is not about to stop. This Monday afternoon, 505 of the 700 OpenAI employees threatened to leave the company and go to Microsoft. If the board of directors does not resign and does not bring back Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, we will follow this. Sixth news, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, a fan of the American singer Taylor Swift died during one of her concerts because of the suffocating heat in the stadium. This case has been talked about a lot on social media in recent hours. Fans present on site assure that security refused bottles of water despite the 42 degrees outside and the 60 degrees felt inside the stadium. Security would also have refused to open the roof of the stadium. According to the Brazilian newspaper Globo, the fan in question, Ana Clara, had a first heart attack and lost consciousness during the concert. Then she was the victim of a second heart attack at the hospital where she died. For her part, Taylor Swift said she was devastated and decided to postpone her second concert in Brazil, which took place the next day. She explained on Instagram that I quote Last news, a mythical hat of the French emperor Napoleon I was sold for more than 1.9 million euros during a auction in Fontainebleau, a record. Indeed, the object was estimated between 600,000 and 800,000 euros. More precisely, it is a black bicorn with a red-white blue cockade worn by the emperor around 1810. We do not know the identity or nationality of the buyer. Thank you very much Blanche. So this week to follow this format, you know, it's happening on YouTube, but also in audio podcasts, whether it's on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Deezer. In short, I'm not going to name them all. You type Hugo Décrypte, you find the news podcast of the day and you subscribe so you don't miss the next news. Take care of yourself, take care of your loved ones and see you tomorrow for a new video.