許銳宇：英國收窄移民 這類人有影響 #港心•情

Hello everyone, I am Lily. Today's guest is Mr. Hsueh-Yue-Yue, a former member of the Hong Kong Satirical Committee. Hsueh-Yue-Yue, hello. Hello everyone, I am Hsueh-Yue-Yue. It's a pleasure to meet you again. Yes, last year, the number of immigrants in the UK reached 745,000. This is a new high. Next year, the UK will gradually reduce the number of immigrants. The Ministry of Home Affairs hopes to reduce the number of legal immigrants to 300,000. Will this affect the BNO policy? The BNO policy has not affected the current immigration policy. Who is affected by the current immigration policy? It affects those who have technical immigration, student visas, and even those who have a PAYO visa. A PAYO visa is a large-scale immigration policy. If you are a citizen of the UK or a resident of the UK, you will have a financial requirement to apply for a PAYO visa in the UK. Your annual income must exceed 18,000 pounds. According to the standard in the UK, most British people can get this amount. However, if British people or British residents want to apply for a PAYO visa in the UK, the immigration limit in the UK will be increased to 38,700 pounds. If this is corrected, it will cause more than 70% of British people to apply for a PAYO visa in the UK. This correction can be seen from this. In fact, the British government's policy of tightening immigration is very powerful. Why? In the past, the number of student visas and technical visas was increased. This can also be said to be a government policy. I told you in advance, you just need to get a visa. However, the increase in the number of PAYO visa applicants will affect family declines. The British family decline will affect family declines. The British government has predicted that there will be a legal challenge, or a political crisis. However, this immigration policy is very powerful. As long as it is so powerful, what is it for? Is it related to the BNO policy? Of course, when he introduced this immigration policy, he did not directly talk about the reason behind it. He just wanted to talk about the shrinking of the population. But what is the reason behind the shrinking of the population? It has nothing to do with BNO. We are just speculating. Everyone knows how the BNO policy came about. The BNO policy is explained by the British government. Because of the Sino-British Joint Declaration, after the introduction of the National Security Law, he thought that the Chinese government had clearly and seriously violated the Sino-British Joint Declaration. So the British government introduced the BNO visa policy in January 2021. So the BNO visa policy was introduced for one reason. Because of historical responsibility and moral issues, he hoped that those who had applied for a BNO passport in the colonial era would have a chance to leave Hong Kong and have a free life in the UK. This is the only reason why the BNO policy was introduced. Many people say that after the arrival of Hong Kong people, they can buy a house and bring a lot of money. The British government is greedy for this. I don't think so. If the British government is greedy for money and money to buy a house, it can target rich people all over the world to introduce a policy to collect their money. So why did the British government introduce the BNO visa policy? So the BNO policy is purely a moral responsibility. It's not that after introducing the BNO policy, the BNO policy will be of great help to the British government. I don't think so. Well, since the BNO policy was introduced because of the National Security Law, does it mean that if the Chinese government suddenly finds out and adopts the National Security Law, the British government will adopt the BNO policy? I don't think so. I'm just saying that there is a chance that the BNO policy will be affected under any circumstances. Since the BNO policy is based on the National Security Law, if the BNO policy is lost, will the BNO policy be lost? I'm not sure about that. Because when the Chinese government introduced the BNO policy, the Sino-British Joint Declaration was destroyed. It can't go back. Even if the Chinese Communist Party adopts the National Security Law, even if it's just Article 23, I don't think the British government will adopt the BNO policy because of this. This is my first speculation. My second speculation is, what other factors will affect the British government's BNO visa? Will it be in 2047? Because the Sino-British Joint Declaration guarantees that Hong Kong people have a one country, two systems in Hong Kong for 50 years, and will never change. The end point is 2047. If the British government is one of the parties in the Sino-British Joint Declaration, they have a responsibility to protect Hong Kong people until 2047, right? In this case, let's think about this. Will the official expiration date be another time point? Will the BNO visa expiration date be in 2047? I think this is very possible. But if it's in 2047, it's a long time. Now, according to unofficial statistics, if it meets the BNO visa, Hong Kong people have a chance to move to the UK through the BNO visa. The number of people in the joint declaration is 3 million. Is 3 million people really 3 million people? This figure is for the whole population of the UK. The population of the UK is almost 70 million. 3 million people. In fact, this figure is less than 5%. In this case, if Hong Kong people can live in the UK for so many years, will it have a big impact on the whole population of the UK? It doesn't look like it. But the problem is that if Hong Kong people really want to emigrate, they won't be able to live in the UK for so many years. They may come to Hong Kong in a very short time. In what circumstances will Hong Kong people emigrate to the UK through the BNO policy? There may be two reasons. The first is that in the next few years, if Hong Kong has a big economic or political problem, and a large number of Hong Kong people need to emigrate to other places, the UK is of course a hot spot. In this case, the BNO policy will greatly increase. The second reason is that if the UK government suddenly greatly corrects the BNO policy in the future, it will also make a large number of Hong Kong people who have BNO passports sign up. From this time, the UK government has greatly corrected the immigration policy. I make a guess. The reason why the UK government has to correct the immigration policy, although it has not yet affected the people who have BNO passports, is to reduce the number of immigrants. The UK government will feel that in the next few years, there may be an immigration wave that will continue or not decrease. At this moment, it will take some measures to reduce the number of immigrants. In the next few years, there is a possibility that a group of immigrants will move to the UK. One of the reasons is that Hong Kong people have BNO passports. From this point of view, I have a guess. I think that in the next few years, the UK government will expect another wave of BNO passports. The first reason is that it expects that the political and economic environment in Hong Kong will dramatically change. This will cause a large number of people who have BNO passports to apply for a visa to the UK. The second reason is that the UK government may further tighten the BNO visa rules. If the BNO visa rules are tightened, many people will apply for BNO passports and move to the UK. Although the UK's immigration policy has not directly affected the BNO passports of Hong Kong people, I can see that the UK government controls the number of immigrants. I have a guess. In the next few years, there is a possibility that the BNO visa rules will be tightened. When will this happen? I think it will happen in 2025. In the first five years, the UK government expected that 300,000 Hong Kong people would come to the UK. When will the first five years end? It will be January 2021 to January 2016. In the first five years, the UK government will look at the BNO population structure, their educational background, and their life situation. I believe the UK government has internal data. After five years, at the second stage, the UK government will adjust the BNO visa rules. I think the BNO visa rules can be extended to 2047 at the latest. But will it happen before? If so, when will it happen? In my opinion, there is a possibility that it will happen in 2025. If there is a large-scale adjustment, it should happen in 2025. Because the BNO policy was introduced in January 2021, the UK government expected that 300,000 Hong Kong people would come to the UK within five years. Now, almost 160,000 Hong Kong people have come to the UK through BNO. For the time being, it is expected. If I were the UK government, I would look at the BNO policy. I will wait for the five-year forecast. When the five-year forecast is over, I will see if the forecast is correct. How do Hong Kong people come to the UK? How many people have a job? How much money do they bring? What is their living situation? What is their working situation? What is the crime rate? After looking at these policies, I will look at whether there will be an amendment to the BNO policy. Will the BNO policy be relaxed? It can be relaxed or even tightened. If it is tightened, because the current situation of Hong Kong immigrants is not much beyond the expectations of the UK government. So he can wait until the first five years are over. The UK government will look at whether the original proposal is correct. At that moment, he will think about whether the BNO policy will be further adjusted. And through this time, the UK government has adjusted other immigration policies to a large extent. I think the UK government seems to be expecting that there will be a large number of immigrants in the next few years. One of them is of course from Hong Kong immigrants. Why will Hong Kong immigrants move in? I just mentioned those two points. Maybe the BNO policy has been greatly adjusted to attract another wave of immigrants. Maybe the political and economic environment in Hong Kong has changed dramatically to attract another wave of immigrants. So from this judgment, I think it is a very initial judgment that there is a chance that in 2025, the UK government will talk about how the BNO policy will be adjusted in the future. This is my personal judgment. Should this matter be immigrated as soon as possible? Because if it is delayed, will it be tightened? I don't think it will change much before 2025. The current BNO policy is roughly like this. It won't change much. But if people want to immigrate, will the BNO policy be forever adjusted? I don't think so. Because a lot of people think that the BNO policy benefits Hong Kong people. Many Hong Kong people think that the BNO policy benefits the British government. Bring in some money, bring in some people to buy a house. So the British government likes it very much. Hong Kong people who like to immigrate to the UK can have no restrictions and no limits. BNO policy will never be tightened. They use this reason to speculate that the BNO policy will never be tightened. I think this speculation is problematic. Because if the British government wants money and technology, they won't reduce their technical visas. They won't reduce student visas. Or they won't even cut investment immigration. BNO policy is purely a moral responsibility. I think the BNO policy is not something that is purely based on profit calculation. Of course, he said that Hong Kong people can self-sufficiency after coming here. Can support themselves. This is a reason for him to adjust the BNO policy. But the BNO policy is not purely based on profit calculation. So in this case, do you think the BNO policy will never be tightened? I don't think so. Because the BNO policy for a person in charge is a very unstable factor for the incoming population. Because now there are 3 million Hong Kong people who have the opportunity to immigrate to Hong Kong. They don't know when they will come in. They don't even know what the population composition is. After coming here, will it affect the property here? Will it affect the work here? Will it affect the medical care here? Because if a country, a place, a place in charge hopes to be able to control the incoming and outgoing population very stably, so that the distribution of resources can be more even. The existence of the BNO policy is a challenge for governance. So from the perspective of profit calculation, from the perspective of governance, from the perspective of political calculation, such a low threshold BNO policy is a challenge to governance. So as a rational regime, it doesn't want such an unstable policy to appear, which may affect its governance. Do you understand what I mean? So the BNO policy will never be tightened. I don't think so. I think there is a chance to tighten it. But is there a way to tighten the BNO policy to a large extent or at the same time make it fulfill its duty? Is this thing done well? So it won't be tightened all of a sudden. Before it is tightened, or before it is tightened on a large scale, it will give you a psychological expectation. It will make it clear. But I dare not say that this thing will never be tightened. Or it will always be open. I won't say this. After all, Hong Kong people bought a house in the UK. Is it very popular in the UK? This is a misunderstanding. Many Hong Kong people are very happy to see this news on Facebook. Even Hong Kong people are proud. But do you know that so many immigrants have immigrated to the UK? One of the big problems is that the housing supply here is short. Many people have to sleep on the street. Many young people can't afford to buy a house. This is a control crisis for the government. Moreover, is HK$10 billion a lot? Do you know that Li Ka-shing's group has invested HK$300-400 billion in the UK? Do you understand? So in this case, if Hong Kong people think that after coming to the UK, they bought a house worth HK$10 billion, the British government will be very happy, and the British people will be very happy. They will think that BNO visa benefits the British people and the British government. This idea is very ridiculous. Because, as I said, if the British government wants to attract rich people, it will attract Li Ka-shing's group. Why do I have to push the BNO policy? After buying a house in the UK, you can buy 5 plus 1, you can live forever, you can buy 5 or 6, a lot of people come to buy. So I think if Hong Kong people buy a house worth HK$10 billion in the UK, the British government will be very happy, and the BNO policy will be open forever. This is a very reasonable and sufficient reason. As you know, real estate is just a kind of economy. This is not something that can't improve productivity. So I really can't figure out why after buying a house in the UK, buying a house worth HK$10 billion will help the British government and make you very happy. I can't see this reason. And I think Hong Kong people won't say anything to be happy. Because to be honest, after coming to Hong Kong, you bought all the properties, and increased the house price. This is not good for the local people, especially for the younger generation. Are there a lot of young people in the UK now? Yes, a lot. In the past, many people came out and continued to live with their families. This situation is getting more and more common. Will it be more and more difficult to emigrate in the future? But if you are a Hong Konger, and you don't have BNO, and you want to emigrate to the UK, and you want to emigrate through technology, it will be more and more difficult. But BNO is not affected yet. Does this search for refugees affect these people? No. Because political protection is another thing. Political protection is the UN Security Council. It is to comply with the contract. Of course, there may be some adjustments, but I can't see it yet. If you are a refugee in Hong Kong, you can continue to come to the UK to apply for protection. Of course, it is up to them to decide whether to release you or not. But they can't reject you to apply for protection. So whether they approve you or not, sometimes they will release you, and sometimes they will release you. Then you can apply. But they can't say that they don't accept this refugee application. They can't. Unless they make a refugee application. But in the future, will the refugee application be tightened? For example, now you are in the UK, after you have approved the refugee application, you can immediately apply for your family's support, then you can come to the UK to apply for protection. But in the future, after you get the refugee status, will they ask you to stay for a year before you can apply for protection? There is a chance for these things to change. But if you are now in Hong Kong, your safety is threatened, and you want to apply for political protection in other places, for the time being, the UK is open to this. But isn't the UK the best place to apply for political protection? I don't know if I can say that. You can think about other countries. Compare. Do you know that starting next spring, the minimum requirement for applying for a technical work visa has increased from 26,000 pounds to 387,000 pounds, up 47%. Will this increase the difficulty? Of course, it will increase the difficulty. But this seems to be a relatively reasonable adjustment compared to the entire policy adjustment. The most unreasonable thing is that the back seat visa requirement has been adjusted from 18,600 pounds to 38,700 pounds. What does this mean? Unless you find a person with high technical skills, then you can apply for a back seat visa. This is very easy to be challenged or to be questioned. So from this point of view, the British government is tightening the immigration restrictions. In fact, the force is quite big. For medical staff and health care workers, this requirement can be exempted. But you can't bring your family with you. You can't bring your family to live in the UK. This is also a difficulty. But if you go to a technical immigration, you don't have a BNO. This group of Hong Kong people, I think they have a lot of choices. Australia, Canada, they have a lot of choices. It is not necessary to go to the UK. Yes, that's right. Foreign workers need to pay more immigration insurance additional fees, from 624 pounds to 1,035 pounds, up to 66%. Family visa, salary level, and work visa, student visa, application for marriage, family, etc. It is also limited to 387,000 pounds. According to the latest figures, the average salary of all British workers is 34,963 pounds. What does this mean? If you can't reach this amount, you can't immigrate? Yes. You mean the marriage visa? Yes. Yes, to be honest, as I said earlier, one of the most important immigration regulations, not to mention BNO, is the marriage visa. The immigration requirements are increased to 38,700 pounds. This has led to the majority of British residents, if you have a foreign marriage, it is very difficult to apply for this marriage visa. This is more stringent than the BNO policy. The BNO policy is much more relaxed than the BNO policy. Because at the beginning, to be honest, the British government approved the BNO policy because it was based on the issue of justice, historical responsibility. Therefore, the BNO policy was introduced as a humanitarian rescue boat between refugees and immigrants. Therefore, the BNO policy is better than the general immigration policy. Yes. The average salary of all British workers is 34,963 pounds. As I said earlier, but for BNO, family members, student visa, work visa, it has increased to 38,700 pounds. Yes. It has increased to more than 400 pounds in Hong Kong. Yes. That's right. Do you want to add anything? For now, that's all I want to say. Many Hong Kong people are worried about the BNO policy. To be honest, I don't think the BNO policy has passed the immigration phase. The second wave is still coming. The BNO suddenly announced a large-scale adjustment, or even a shutdown. Or the political situation in Hong Kong has changed dramatically. The political situation in Hong Kong has changed dramatically. In the past, we thought it was far-fetched. But now, I think it's getting more and more urgent. What happened today is not a low-risk thing. So, I personally don't know whether the BNO policy will be greatly revised or shut down. I just want to share my opinion. For your reference. In fact, it has raised the threshold for matriarchal marriage and family. Other things don't seem to have a big impact. Is that right? For now, the BNO policy is still in effect. Okay. If there's nothing else, that's all for today. Thank you, everyone. Thank you, Mr. Hui. See you next time. Okay. Bye-bye. Bye-bye.