Spring Market Starts: How We Look At The Stats And How We Analyze It

Hello, this is Debbie Simmons, I'm with the Simmons Lifestyle Real Estate Group. My partner, Mark Brotherton, and myself service the central Vancouver Island market area. That is Mill Bay, Duncan, Crofton, Shemainis, Ladysmith. We do parts of Cedar. We go north and south too, but we mainly do the central island area, the Cowichan Valley. This report is for the week of March 11th. Interest rate projection changed again this week, so weekly it's changing. Last week I told you they were going to be going down 1.25% by the end of the year, now it looks like it's probably 1.5%. So I think they're going to throw another 0.25% drop in there. So they're anticipating five 0.25% drops now instead of four. So that's wonderful news for all of us. The topic of our week is stats and how we get our stats. So now that the spring market has started up, I want to share with you how we look at stats and how we analyze that. I'm sharing my screen here. There we go. So over here we've got this year versus last year sold prices by area. We've got sell to list ratio prices. We've got sales volume by area. We have original price versus sold, months of inventory, historic sales and price change, historic sales price trends, historic count of sales by month, historic count of active listings, how much inventory we have in brown, and days on market. So these are all parameters that we use to analyze what the market's doing, what direction it's going and how quickly. Let's go into this one, for instance. And so these are single family dwellings in the Cowichan Valley. Here was 2023 in the green here. You can see the median sale price was $782,500, and we slide on over here to 2024. So far, our median price is $840,000. So that means it is up 5.11% in our market area. Prices are up 5.11%. That's a lot. You know, we've had this pent up demand here, two really low volume months and now the market is really moving. So I want to take us back to show you our sales stats for the week and what happened this week. So here we are. We have 11 new listings this week. We've got nine new pending deals, four price decreases, two cancellations, and two expiries. So that is really, really good market activity. I won't show you the under 700 again because it hasn't changed from what I showed you last week in the two prior weeks. It won't look exactly the same to you. So I will stop this share for the moment. Great. Okay. The list to sell ratios, that is what we'll start to see now that we're seeing the new pending sales. And once those become subject free and they publish the prices, we were able to see what the differentiation is. Normally before COVID, it was 97 list to sell ratio. In other words, listings would go on average at 97% of the list price. So we'll see what happens. I think that it's probably going to be like that for the rest of the year. We haven't seen multiple offers yet. I've heard of one so far this year. That's not enough to say that we're in that kind of a market. But the more these interest rates start to come down near the end of the year, the more that activity is going to increase. So please call us with any questions you have. We are available all the time. We do all kinds of real estate. We have a tremendous amount of experience in commercial, residential, recreational, bare land, you name it, businesses. So please contact either Mark Rutherton or myself, Debbie Simmons at 250-246-0708 with any of your real estate needs. Thank you so much and have a great week.