Why Julian Nagelsmann's Germany are the FAVOURITES for Euro 2024...(or if not...why?)

Germany have looked irresistible at times in the opening two games of Euro 2024, and in today's video I'm going to provide an in-depth tactical deep dive into Julian Nagelsmann's Germany, what makes them one of the favourites for the tournament, including their rotations and movement in possession, how Nagelsmann has got the best out of key individuals, what makes them unique out of possession too, as well as how I think teams can disrupt what looks like now a really well-oiled German machine, of course using in-depth in-game examples and analysis along the way. Welcome back to Harvey Gratian in Extra Time. Let's get on with it. Let's start with Germany's general in-possession structure. In deep areas they build in a 4-2-3-1 that we've hardly really seen them pressed aggressively from with Kroos next to Andrik in the pivot. In settled possession they then transition into the 3-1-5-1 as I call it, and this is where things get really exciting tactically. Kroos drops into left centre-back and just ahead of him is Andrik in the 6, and between the lines you have the three 10s essentially in Wirtz, Gundogan and Muziala, and then you have Kimmich and Mittelstadt, the full-backs, holding the width. This is all fine, but the movement and rotations really make this system pop. Let me show you how, because it isn't just how fluidly players interchange with one another. The key to Nagelsmann's Germany is that every movement is doubled or even tripled down by the specific counter-movements required to keep Germany's rotations balanced and efficient. For example, here we see Gundogan and Kai Havertz, the two mainly tasked with pinning and stretching a backline vertically, with Mittelstadt also stretching horizontally. To counter this, Wirtz drops in to create a lopsided 3-2 that Germany form quite often, and here things become really tight and very connected between the players, and the goal here for Germany is either to create space between the lines or suck the opposition press in and be able to exploit the space on the other side of the pitch. Moves and counter-moves, Nagelsmann does this brilliantly. As play progresses, Kroos takes advantage of the space on the right-hand side and creates a 3-v-3, all whilst Wirtz and Gundogan have really subtly switched lanes, by the way. And here we see a more dynamic rotation involved, where Muziala, who has interchanged positions with Joshua Kimmich out wide, rotates back into the half-space and accesses the repositioned Ilkay Gundogan, who almost finds Wirtz, who now becomes that more shadow-striker-y ten off the shoulder of Kai Havertz. These are all little, dis-marking, clever movements. Not just rotations for the sake of it, but always with a purpose and stretching a block horizontally or vertically, and both ways, to make progression appear so simple, even when we know it's one of the hardest things to do in the sport, it's a real art that this German team have mastered. And I think this comes down to simply elite-level coaching, to create a team-wide mental conditioning, as I put it on X, and a unity. Germany are all about these key words, balance and unison, and with how connected this German team appear to be with each other, this brings me both to a Nagelsmann quote, which I think epitomises his philosophy, and another passage of play, but first, the quote. Nagelsmann stresses the importance of social competence and the team's psychological condition, and I think the tightness of the group, of this German group, is really shown on the pitch. Here we see how close and good the distances are between the players, and this ensures that Andrik, in the lone six, or the single pivot, is not on an island, and you'd be excused for looking at sort of more of a 3-1 build, and thinking that this lone six, especially someone like Andrik, who is not a build-up leader, would be on an island, but it's not in the German's case. Muziala, in this example, this time drops on the right-hand side into this lopsided 3-2, after Hungary's 5-3-2 low block, out of possession, has been compressed high and broken round the sides, and this, interestingly, came as part of a sort of pendulum system, with Wirtz initially doing that lopsided pivot job, that's not a technical term, but it's what I'm calling it, doing that job, before it got switched to Muziala. It's up and down, it's rotations, it's moves and counter-moves again, and now there's space between the lines for Muziala to take advantage of, and he can do that better than anyone else. And here, you see the Havertz and Gündoğan relationship, who interchange high and low as Gündoğan lets it run, and it's just, on this occasion, too heavy from Kai Havertz. And I think this just emphasises the range of solutions that this German team have in possession. They can create even a 1v1 dynamic out wide by pulling Muziala out there, they can force a team deep, as we've touched on, by playing vertically and creating depth, with mostly Havertz pushing and pinning and stretching an opposition back line, they can attract a press to create space in between the lines, they can stretch the pitch laterally with good deliveries from wide, it's a really well-balanced team. And in terms of tempo, I think, and the range of solutions that they have in the tempo, in the recent clip that I just showed you, you saw patient, short passing in that 3-1 build, and Wirtz joining in, and then a sudden acceleration of the play by Muziala. It's very hard to deal with this for any side. But before we discuss the out-of-possession things, and also where Germany can potentially be got at and slightly vulnerable, I want to talk about one last in-possession point, and that's Nagelsmann's platforming of individuals. And what I mean by platforming of a player, of an individual, is literally the conditions and zones of a pitch a player is placed in, and what that allows them to do. What is even more impressive by Nagelsmann is that he has successfully built around many sort of centrepieces, and put them all at the same time in their best zones, whilst maintaining the sort of optimal balance around them. What do I mean? Well, take a look at Tony Kroos and Joshua Kimmich. Kroos at left-centre-back and Kimmich at right-back is simply put, it's placing their best passers outside of the block, and for Tony Kroos, for example, this is where you maximise his zone of influence, giving him the most touches and the most progressive passes, whether that be punchy between-the-lines balls or switches of play. Here he is facing play and dictating, and then for Kimmich, again, deeper and wider where I want Trent Alexander-Arnold, for England and where Kimmich caused Arsenal a lot of problems in the Champions League, deeper and wider. It's no surprise that he's created the most chances in the Euros so far. We've already touched on the 10s and their movements, but it's, again, this time inside the block, getting your best carriers. But lastly, Gundogan and Kai Havertz, that relationship, two players that possess the qualities of a rum deuter, and they have this correlative relationship where one can run into the channel and give depth to Germany's play, and the other can move into the space created. Box crash off the shoulder, and there's just this mixture of real intelligent off-the-ball movements and two great tactical minds whirring at the top of Germany's play. It's simple, again from Nagelsmann, but it's just so astute and so hard to get right, echoing the words of Johan Cruyff here. And the same closeness and team unison epitomised in the in-possession stuff is, again, characterised in Germany's out-of-possession play. Nagelsmann, in true German fashion, built his off-the-ball tactics around the counter-press. Germany looked to funnel teams to one side, with Havertz and Gundogan interchanging between pressing the ball and following the number six, with the frontman arcing their run to stop this pass back and potential way out for the opposition. Again, this is backed up team-wide, with Wurz and Muziala on the flanks either pressing the ball into the full-back or tucking in. Kroos and Ondrej back up the press high as well, and the whole team squeeze. And if the counter-press fails or the team aren't in a position to counter-press, Nagelsmann sets up Germany in a 4-2-3-1 mid-block. So Germany are perfect, right? And they are guaranteed winners of this summer's Euros. No. They may be really refined tactically and have players platformed in their best zones to dominate, but there are weaknesses to their game. And this final section is about those potential drawbacks, but also how teams could potentially stop them being so good. Looking at the German squad as a whole, I think bar Leroy Sane, Germany lack the raw pace on transition and they lack a 1v1 quality or 1v1 specialist outside of Jamal Muziala. And how do they make up for this? Again, talking about the range of solutions they have, Muziala is an incredible athletic carrier that often drifts wide and interchanges against Scotland. This was on the left with Mittelstadt and on the right it was with Kimmich against Hungary. And Mittelstadt and Kimmich also arrive later into wide areas. But they also, and they definitely have an issue in transitional defence with Kroos at left centre-back, the full-backs high and wide, and the space either side of Andrik at times in the single pivot. If you add Germany's lack of mobility in these areas and the spaces in the channels, these are potential avenues to exploit. How do they deal with this? Well, sustaining pressure to a top level. That's what Nagelsmann's game model is all about. And this means that they can focus on the counter-press because their players are already really collectivised and talking about those close distances between each other to go and exert pressure and suffocate the opposition. I'm also unsure about how their counter-press is going to hold up against the truly elite build-ups because Havertz and Muziala are very good off the ball, but I think some other profiles in the squad, potentially in and around the front line, can lack intensity in the press at times. And that's not through any lack of effort. That's more just physical profiling. This leads me on to where we can lay these weaknesses bare potentially a bit more and stop a team who, at the moment, look inevitable. We've talked about the way they like to compress the pitch and I think this leaves them open to a switch of play and a counter-attack. This requires, of course, someone or a team that has a really good range finder at full-back and then a runner also to release. But on these quicker sorts of attacks, what I've noted watching Germany is that the most valuable method of chance creation against them is the cut-back. Like we've said, you can take advantage of Andrik, of Kroos, and often a centre-back following their men higher, leaving space for the cut-back, and the opposition have transitioned efficiently. But again, with their game model built on maintaining possession, I think it's best to not ignore this but to start thinking about how you can disrupt Germany's on-ball stuff. And that starts with Tony Kroos. When defending high and up the pitch in the mid-blog, I would deploy a 4-4-2 diamond press against this German team. Let me explain why. Well, in Germany's deep build, the 4-4-2 diamond matches up really well because it can just formulate a normal bog-standard 4-4-2 man-to-man press. And in Germany's settled possession shape, the two up front can funnel angles towards Tony Kroos' weaker foot, the diamond as well makes it really easy to manage the single pivot, and then the wide midfielders can manage Musiala, Wurzen at times, Gundogan's deeper rotations into the pivot. It works really nicely. Obviously, all tactical decisions have to sacrifice something, and that is Germany having nice dynamics to stretch the play on the far side or in behind. But my point is, if you can get Germany playing long more, or more often than they want, then there's a higher chance of a turnover, there's more disconnect in their counter-press and ability to assert their dominance on the game. And you, in turn, the opposition, can assert your own on-ball qualities more. In deep defence, this is more bog-standard, but I like the 5-4-1, but I won't go into too much detail on that yet. But that is my tactical deep dive into Julian Nagelsmann's Germany, what makes them the favourites, or one of the favourites, I should say, sorry, for the tournament, and where teams could look to disrupt this German machine we have seen in the first two group stage games. But this is the first official video on Harvey Gratian in Extra Time, I really hope you've enjoyed it, there's going to be so much more content, I've got so much things, especially in the Euros, to get my teeth into, and of course going into the future, and the 2024-25 season too. I really hope you've enjoyed, I only ask you to like, comment and subscribe right at the end of my videos, because hopefully that means you've found the videos enjoyable, or informative, or entertaining, in whichever shape, way or form you derive that from. That's all from me, I really hope you've enjoyed, catch you in a bit, see you later.