Can Rob Dillingham Survive in the NBA?

Rob Dillingham this past year was one of if not the most dynamic and exciting guard in college basketball. But the big question is, will Dillingham's game translate over to the NBA? In this video, we're going to break down every part of Rob's game and try to figure out just how good of a prospect he is. Now the most important element in Dillingham's game is going to be his ability to create off the dribble. With the ball, Rob has a lightly quick first step. If the defense isn't squared up and gives Rob any kind of attacking angle, it's pretty much a guaranteed blowback. You'll see this defender step up and meet Rob out 40 feet from the basket. And Dillingham is just going to drop the ball between and blow right past him to then extend to the rim. And on top of that quickness, Rob also has the ball on a string, which makes him really difficult to deal with in open space. Off the bounce, Rob is elite at shifting his weight from side to side, which moves the defense out of his frame and gives him scoring windows. Watch him here push the ball across his frame to his right side. Then he's going to plant his outside foot and cross the ball back over to his left. Off the dribble, Dillingham also has really good pace. You'll see him here go between and lift his chest up, then get to this push cross to his right. This has also been one of Dillingham's go-to combos, where he goes between and gets this lateral skip. And once he feels the defense shifting across his frame, Rob's going to transfer the ball back through and dart into this drive. When playing downhill, Rob's also a really creative finisher in the paint. He's got great touch with these extended out layups and floaters, which he can sink from a variety of angles. Watch him here turn the corner to his right. And when he feels the defense collapse down, Rob has the control and touch to put up this soft layup high off the glass. Now on this play, Rob's going to use his footwork to create space for his floater. By hitting this right-left euro across the paint, giving himself plenty of airspace to elevate. And Dillingham can also play physical in the lane as well. Watch him here explode to his left and get into the defense's body, to then pop up this vertical floater. This finish here is pretty tough, where Dillingham is again driving hard to his left. And watch him lift up and attack the shot blocker's body, to then elevate over him for this layup. So as a deep paint score, Dillingham can for sure generate plenty of points with his touch and his ability to initiate contact against shot blockers. But, I do think Rob's scoring around the basket right now is limited. Standing at 6'3", Dillingham is pretty undersized compared to your typical NBA player. And he also doesn't get a crazy amount of pop off the floor. Now I'm not saying Rob is a bad athlete. But at the same time, I don't think he has enough explosiveness to primarily rely on that to finish around the basket. Especially when he's going up against NBA length. So going forward, I do think Dillingham is going to have to add a little more depth to his finishing back. By either finding different ways to initiate contact, using different strides on the floor, or playing off two feet. Now having said that, I still think Dillingham is going to do most of his scoring from the outside. And Rob this past year with Kentucky, shot over 37% on all his pull up threes. Which is pretty impressive considering how difficult many of these looks work. Mechanically, Rob has an old school jump shot, getting a ton of lift off the floor as he releases. That elevation obviously allows Dillingham to rise over Contess. In pick and roll, if the defense gives Rob any kind of air space, he is going to lift up into his shot with no hesitation. But when you pair Rob's lift off the floor along with his shifty handle, he has the tools to generate these pull up threes as well. Watch him here drop down into this inside out crossover. And watch him bring his left foot all the way around. To then pick up and float into this left right jumper. This is also a tough move here. Where Dillingham is going to put the ball in his left hand and skip up. Then he's going to plant his right foot getting to this sidestep three. And then all those tools carry right over to Dillingham's midrange game. Where again he's got the lift to attack into open space. And rise over these in between jumpers. Plus he can also use those step backs to create additional space. Watch him here attack hard to his left. And get this defender to open up his stance. Giving Rob the leverage to create space with his step back. So because Dillingham can score from all three levels. He pulls a ton of defensive gravity towards the ball. Which then opens up his passing. Now even though Dillingham is for sure a score first player. He still plays really unselfish. He's willing to make the simple reads and keep the defense in rotation. Now when looking at Rob's actual on ball creation. I think he does his best work when he's playing downhill. Because Dillingham has a lethal midrange and floater game. He commonly pulls the backline defense up. Which then opens up these dump off passes to his teammates on the block. Watch him here get to this shot fake and blow by. Then he's going to gather and put his eyes on the rim. Which again pulls this big across the paint. And sets up this uncontested dump. Dillingham is also a good decision maker in pick and roll. Where he's comfortable snapping these tight pocket passes. As well as deliver these dimes from over the top. I love this read here. Where Rob's going to turn the corner off his screen. Then veer back into his man to keep him on his back. Allowing him and the roller to play 2 on 1 against this drop bit. And he sets up this lob at the rim. And Rob's also got a pretty good feel of the entire court. Being able to read the weak side defense. And punish them with these skip passes. You'll see him here read these 2 defenders shifting across the paint. So Dillingham in response is going to whip this pass over to the opposite wing. Setting up an open catch and shoot 3. This is also an elite dime here. Where Dillingham is going to turn his head to lull the weak side defense asleep. Then he's going to laser this pass over to the opposite corner. So Dillingham for sure has the foundation and skills. To be an elite scorer and creator in the NBA. But another big area of improvement for him offensively. Is going to be his decision making. Rob with the ball is constantly in attack mode. Which can be a double edged sword. Because while Dillingham does have the ability to make plays and sink tough shots. It can lead to him forcing the issue. By either putting up tough contested jumpers early in the shot clock. Or forcing passes that aren't there. Coming into the league I do think Dillingham is going to have more responsibility as a league guard. So he's going to have to develop that feel of picking the right spots. Of where and when to attack. But this is something I see him naturally improving on with more experience and NBA development. Now when transitioning over and looking at Dillingham's defense. This is where I have my biggest concerns. To start off with the positives. I think Rob has the physical foundation to be a solid on ball defender. Having the foot speed to slide and stay in front. While also having pretty underage strength. Watch him here slide and wall off the offense's initial attack. Then absorb this back down. And force this difficult turnaround jumper. When Rob's locked in he can be pretty pesky on the ball. Having the quickness to step out and pressure the offense. While also being able to turn his hips and keep the ball in front. But from the film I've watched. I do think Rob's focus and intensity on defense is pretty inconsistent. There's many times where Rob offers little to no resistance on the ball. And gives up clean blow bys. You'll see him here open up his stance. And give the ball handler a clear driving line to his right. Now on this play notice how Dillingham is going to lift out of his stance. Allowing the offense to drive right past him. And at this point in the game Rob only had one foul. So I'm not sure why he's trying to avoid contact like this. I also think Dillingham needs to get better at navigating through screens. Whenever he receives contact from the screener. He tends to die on the ball. Which allows his man to easily turn the corner. Watch him here fight over this screen. Then give up on the play. Allowing his man to knife through all the way to the basket. So overall I think Rob Dillingham is an extremely talented prospect coming into this draft. He's got plenty of juice as an all ball scorer and creator. If he can clean up his decision making and shot selection. I think that will easily make him one of the best lead guards in this draft. The only real concerning part that I see in Rob's game is his defense. But we'll see how that develops going forward. If you enjoyed this breakdown please like and subscribe. And let me know in the comments what you think of Rob Dillingham's game. The kid's ear.