A combination of floods and droughts is currently hitting China. Between January and June this year, the damage caused by natural disasters in China is alleged to cost around $13 billion. Yet while the recent disasters are being framed as a once-in-a-decade incident, a look back reveals that a similar barrage of floods and droughts have hit China for the last several years, also causing large-scale damage—not only to homes and infrastructure, but also to the food supply. We’ll discuss in this episode of Crossroads.
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Welcome to Crossroads. A combination of flood and droughts is currently hitting China.
Now between January and June of this year, the damage caused by natural disasters,
they claim, at least on the surface, that it's close to 13 billion dollars in damage. Remember,
Chinese currency that goes a lot further. But while the recent disasters are being framed as,
you know, once in a decade or even once in a hundred years incidents, a look back reveals
that a similar barrage of floods and droughts, they've hit China for the last several years,
for months at a time, year on year, causing large-scale damage not only to homes and agriculture,
but also notably to the food supply. Now first, let's have a look at the current state of things.
And again, just keep in mind, this is just what's being reported on the surface claims of the CCP.
It could be worse. Reuters said that natural disasters such as flooding, drought, and extreme
temperatures cost China 93.16 billion yuan. That's about 12.83 billion U.S. dollars in the
first half of this year, with almost 33 million people affected, according to, again, the government,
the CCP. They note that heavy snow, 22 strong earthquakes, including one of 7.1 magnitude
in the northwestern region of Xinjiang, landslides and mudslides in southwestern regions,
and flooding on the Yellow River and in southern provinces all added to the burden. It says the
32.38 million people affected included 322 who died or disappeared. Keep in mind, again,
oftentimes the numbers are doctored. We don't really know the full impact, but they cite this
to the ministry, under the CCP, telling you this during a news briefing. They say about 856,000
people faced emergency resettlement, 23,000 houses were destroyed, and around 3.17 million
hectares of crops damaged. They say the number of people impacted compares with just 48.76 million
people for the whole of 2023, when 95 people died or went missing, according again to the CCP's
reporting. Now, they say the impact on the economy in January to June this year was also worse than
the year earlier period, when the country logged 38.23 billion yuan worth of loss. It was the
biggest first-half disaster-related loss since 2019, because they were having similar disasters
at that time, according to the data they say available on the Emergency Management Ministry
website. Now, again, keep in mind that these numbers, they're just what the CCP is claiming
to the public. They will not say things they don't want to say. But even aside from that,
the numbers the CCP has, that's limited to what local officials are willing to tell the CCP.
And even the numbers the local officials get, that's based on their own investigations and
what they're looking into, and nothing that they're not looking into. You factor in the
recent CCP law that makes it so if you spread information that damages the economy or damages
the interests of the CCP, you risk going to jail. And that starts raising some other problems,
especially at a time when the CCP is trying its hardest to make China look appealing to investors.
You know, one of the cited problems previously with these natural disasters in China,
because again, they've been going on year after year, I'll show you the data in a bit.
One of the biggest issues you've had with it, the same thing you had during the Great Leap
Forward in China, when you had local provinces saying, hey, highest grain yield we've ever had,
when in reality, they had famines. The local officials want to look good to the CCP.
So they want to make it look like they prevented disaster. They want to make it look like they've
saved lives. They want to make it look like they fixed things, like they acted, and they
minimized the possible impact. Because if they go to the CCP officials and say,
hey, hundreds of thousands of people died, hundreds of thousands in damages or whatever,
it looks bad on them. They're not willing to say it. The CCP will punish them because they've
failed to do their jobs or failed to protect the interests of the CCP. They're not willing
to make themselves look bad. And so the incentive is oftentimes to hide information or maybe not
even investigate it fully in the first place. Maybe they'll only investigate the area where
they did take action, but none of the other areas. This is why it's so complicated with
these types of numbers. Now, with this said, the situation on the ground looks serious.
There's been a recent wave of flooding across China. Let me show you all some footage after
water breached a 740-foot stretch of a dike at China's Dongting Lake, and this is in Hunan
province. That's the second largest freshwater lake in the country's south. The breach was about
32 feet on the afternoon the breach occurred, but it expanded to nearly 500 feet early the next
morning. 5,700 residents had to be relocated, again, according to Chinese state media. More
than 2,300 rescue workers started working to seal the breached dike as well. Of course, remember,
the main source of news on this stuff is CCTV, one of the main mouthpieces of the Chinese Communist
Party. But the flooding has also been bad along the Yangtze River, one of the country's major
rivers. Reports are saying that intense rainfall in southern China have caused water levels to
rise in the Yangtze River, and cities downstream like Nanjing, they've had issues and flood warnings
and banned boats and other forms of vessels from entering the sector of the Yangtze River because
of this. China's Ministry of Water Resources had reported that water levels in sections in the
middle and lower courses of the Yangtze River exceeded warning levels. As a brief overview of
this, Reuters said that days of torrential rain, flash floods and landslides across southern China
have forced authorities to enact emergency plans as swollen rivers threaten to overflow further,
potentially disrupting lives of millions. And it's the annual flooding season started earlier in
China this year, as southern province has battled with intense storms that have swept away bridges
and destroyed low-rise homes, devastated agricultural output and submerged numerous
cities. Now, in some areas, reports are saying the floods are the worst they've had in decades.
Now, South China Morning Post says this, they say the city of Guilin is experiencing its worst
flood since 1998, with villagers trapped in their homes, shops underwater and one railway station
suspended as heavy rainfall continues to batter southern China. It says authorities of Guilin
issued a level one flood emergency alert on Wednesday morning and notes that by that evening,
water levels of the city's section of the Lijiang River had risen to 487 feet. That's just over
eight feet beyond the alert level and just over the 1998 peak of 486 feet, according to state
broadcaster, again, CCTV. It says the devastating floods of 1998, they lasted two months and wreaked
havoc on 24 provinces, a lot of China. A total of 3,004 people were killed, another 220 million
were affected, with countless homes destroyed. And again, according to the CCP, it might be even worse,
you never know. Now, one town in China was hit by an entire year's worth of rain in just one day.
Dafengying in China's Henan area was hit with extreme storms and according to national weather
forecasters in China, they logged 24 inches of rainfall in 24 hours. This is compared to the
annual average of 31 inches of rainfall in that area. Now, given this, you know, with all this in
context, last month, CCP leader Xi Jinping called for all out efforts to fight the impact of the
Meaning, of course, that state media and local officials, well, they have some extra incentive
to demonstrate they're doing something. Now, the reality is that the damage was not just last month
or this month. It's been going on for a while. And it's been looking pretty serious, actually,
for a while. I'll be talking more about this after we come back from a quick break.
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Welcome back. China has been experiencing a wave of natural disasters, torrential rain,
floods, drought. The costs of the damage caused by natural disasters, at least they claim on the
surface, is around $13 billion just between January and June of this year. The reality,
though, is the damage was not just again this month or last month. It's been going on for a
while and it's been looking very serious for a while as well. Let me just show you, this is from
April. BBC said in April, the authorities have evacuated 110,000 people from their homes in
Guangdong as days of heavy rain caused massive flooding in China's most populous province.
It notes that footage on state media and online showed large swathes of land inundated by the
floods and rescuers ferrying people and lifeboats in waist deep water. Several major rivers have
burst their banks and authorities are closely monitoring, quote, dangerously high water levels.
They warned that the level of a river in northern Guangdong hit a once in 100 years peak on Monday
morning again back in April, though they noted that at least by that time it had not yet happened.
Much of Guangdong is part of the low-lying Pearl River Delta, which is prone to floods due to the
They note as well that Delta is a major manufacturing base in China and one of the
country's most densely populated regions, with Guangdong alone home to around 127 million people.
Now Daily Mail, also in April, said China's once in a century floods, 127 million on alert as cities
are submerged, homes and cars swept away, and tens of thousands evacuated after deadly storms
last region dubbed factory floor of the world. Now again, take that into context. If in April,
the manufacturing hub of China was getting, you know, submerged by storms, how has that
gone given the fact that this has continued since that time? Month by month, same thing,
and it's getting worse. It also seems the disasters again are not getting any better.
Now we can see this, for example, in the recent warnings issued by CCP leader Xi Jinping. If the
situation was improving, it's not likely he'd make an alert like he did just last month at the tail
end of the disaster, unless there were other reasons for it, which is also a possibility
given the CCP may be looking for scapegoats, right, for the troubled economy saying, hey,
it's not me, it's the storm, it wasn't me who destroyed the economy, it was the rain, right,
could be a possibility as well. But regardless, during the time of really heavy sensitivity in
China right now, they wouldn't want to make themselves look bad, especially to foreign
investors. But the damage from natural disasters, it's actually not just impacting homes or
infrastructure or manufacturing. Most importantly, maybe, the damage is also
hitting China's food supplies. This is from the beginning of the month. In fact,
the economist said in Guishan County, on the plains of central China, fields that are usually
green with maize plants are brown and dusty. It has barely rained for two months, and village
wells are running dry. And that's a certain level of hardship is to be expected in parts of central
and northern China. Most of the provinces in the north where 40% of the country's population lives
fall below the threshold for water scarcity sent by the United Nations. In the southern,
torrential rains are more common. Flooding and landslides in the region killed dozens of people
last month. Thousands had to be evacuated. But southern China has also been hit by droughts in
each of the past three years. Attributing any single weather event to climate change,
they say, is complicated. But scientists expect China will increasingly experience
periods of heavier rainfall, as well as longer periods of dryness in the coming years. And keep
in mind, whether it's too much rain or not enough, both of these are going to impact crops. Both of
them will destroy your crops. They know this is going to make an already difficult challenge
even harder. With just 6% of the world's freshwater, China must quench the thirst of 20%
of the world's people. To do this, the country's leaders have long relied on big infrastructure
projects to move water from wetter to drier places. As the demand again for water increases
and the weather becomes less predictable, that process again gets more complicated.
They can't predict it like they used to. So if they're expecting the problem to keep getting
worse, as they're saying, this does seem to be accurate based on the trend. Even a few years ago,
the floods and droughts were devastating in China. And now they're suggesting the recent wave this
year has been even worse than previous years. If things are really set to get worse next year,
and the year after that, and so on, this could mean some serious things for the future of the CCP.
And again, on one of the big problems, this is impacting the food supply. The cool down says
this. Northern and central China are suffering from months of prolonged drought and extreme heat,
which is prompting Chinese farmers to hold off on planting. They're not planting their crops.
This has led to a delay in production of popular crops such as rice, corn, and commonly used herbs
such as mugwort. And one of the farmers told them this. With advanced technology and artificial
rainfall, there'd be some hope for us, but there's really no rain. Average folks like us
will face total crop failure. That's just how it is. And another farmer echoed this grim sentiment
saying, quote, if it really doesn't rain, the crops will all die. And this drought will
significantly threaten China's food supply, which is already a concern in a country of over 1.4
billion people, as well as the global food supply. But what worries experts most, it says, is what
will happen in the seasons to come, next year and the year after and so on, if these droughts
continue. Now remember, the problem is not just enough rain, it's too much rain. South China
Morning Post said this. China is set to see a drop in its early season rice harvest after recent
bouts of extreme rainfall in major production areas, putting pressure on annual output at a
crop to be gathered later this month and estimated to account for 13% of China's total
rice production is sprouting prematurely in the southern and eastern areas of the country after
heavy rains that have persisted since mid-June, according to local farmers and agricultural
analysis. Now something that's actually really telling is the type of food the Chinese Communist
Party started importing recently. Remember, the CCP has had a policy of grain self-sufficiency for
a long time. It has not been able to achieve that, and now some of the imports they have
suggest something weird might be going on. I'll be talking about this more exclusively
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