（粵語）烏克蘭致命打擊手段，在俄軍炮兵身上產生影響｜【 #時事軍事】

The gunfights on the Wacken battlefield may be changing The data released by Wacken and the West show that the Wacken forces are destroying the Russian artillery at an accelerating rate If these signs are confirmed this may mark a turning point in this war Traditional artillery may need to be redefined Artillery has always been the core of Russian warfare Everyone is used to describing the Russian ground forces as mainly made up of artillery and armored forces It is an iron-clad army Since the beginning of the War of Ukraine Russia has always believed that such an army could be at its wits' end A report on Russian artillery in 2023 by the British Royal Research Institute simply stated that Russian troops use artillery in close-range and heavy-to-heavy combat as their main killing mode The lack of tank and artillery can be compensated by large-scale artillery It is no longer necessary to rely on well-trained and well-determined infantry to carry out tough and dangerous battles Russian troops can simply use artillery to divide a village or city into two areas Russia's advantage in artillery makes Ukraine's counterattack cost-effective In this war most of the casualties are caused by artillery Ukraine's firepower is significantly behind Russia in terms of artillery and ammunition In April this year the US Commander-in-Chief of the European Command Christopher K. Yukley told the House of Representatives that each time the Ukrainian troops fired a shell Russia fired five Even if the U.S. urges Ukraine to provide more artillery it can only partially alter this balance But if Ukraine can accurately position itself and destroy Russian artillery the situation could change dramatically Russian artillery that serves as the main attack force could be suppressed or destroyed This is equivalent to pulling out Russian troops What is shocking is that this situation may have already begun According to a report from the British Royal Institute in February this year Russia has 5,000 artillery on the battlefield of which about 1,000 are LiDAR-type self-propelled artillery the rest are old-fashioned tracked artillery Russian artillery losses on the battlefield These are mainly artillery stored in the former Soviet Union The number of these artillery shells is very large and can be seen and calculated in the satellite images But many of them are long exposed outside the house and cannot be used After opening intelligence analysts have been trying to assess these storage locations to see how much military equipment has been stored since the former Soviet Union how much has been removed and how much of the remaining equipment can still be used In November last year HIMARS released some detailed analysis results trying to analyze each of the storage locations of each of the equipment The analysis results of this work and those of others were widely used in military analysis as evidence of Russia's remaining capabilities However, it is very difficult to determine whether these equipment can still be used HIMARS warned that the analysis work that has been completed is not a very definitive result and does not know which type of equipment should actually be considered useless For example, the 130mm M-46 artillery of the 1950s should have retired long ago But now it has been brought back from the battlefield by accident HIMARS said that the Russian army has recently started to take back the 130mm M-46 artillery from abandoned equipment This may be because of the 130mm artillery Of course, this may also be due to the insufficient number of long-range artillery So far, it is not clear whether the Russian army is prioritizing the re-activation of some old weapons systems It is also unclear whether they really have the ability to re-activate hundreds of such systems every year But Russia does have a fairly large arsenal of weapons Compared to the tanks and infantry tanks destroyed by the Russian army on the front line the loss of artillery does not seem to be so prominent Oryx's detailed study of the loss of Russian troops confirmed by the military showed that only 382 artillery and 783 self-propelled artillery were destroyed The problem is that this does not reflect the total loss of Russian artillery The bigger problem is that the speed at which the Russian artillery was destroyed is accelerating The number of Russian equipment destroyed by the daily war reports released by the Russian Defense Ministry is much higher than the number confirmed by the Open Intelligence website The war report of Ukraine on July 23 showed that the Russian army lost nearly 8,300 tanks and about 15,700 artillery This number seems to be a bit exaggerated or at least it is considered to be optimistic The strange situation appeared at the beginning of this year The number of Russian artillery destroyed continues to rise sharply Especially in recent months the number of Russian artillery losses has been rising and the number of tanks lost has been more or less maintained at the same level with small-scale fluctuations From the beginning of the war to the end of 2023 the number of Russian artillery losses per month is about 700 And from January 2024 there has been an increasing trend Since January, the number of Russian artillery losses per month has increased by about 100 In May, the first breakthrough of 1,000 reached 1,160 In June, the number of Russian artillery losses reached 1,460 From July to July 15, the number was 769 This shows that the number in July may be higher The number of Russian artillery destroyed confirmed by the Open Intelligence website also shows the same upward trend but the absolute number is much smaller The data released by the Ukrainian drone force also shows the rapid growth of Russian artillery losses In the first two weeks of July it destroyed 778 Russian artillery Although there may still be differences in the understanding of absolute numbers the number of Russian artillery losses has increased by threefold and the number of tanks lost has remained approximately unchanged This shows that things have changed The process of destroying enemy artillery included three stages First, positioning enemy artillery This may involve satellite or intelligence data from allies in the North It may also involve anti-artillery radars from the U.S. or reconnaissance drones from nowhere Second, this information must be transmitted to the battlefield command and control system so that the commander can distribute firepower to strike enemy artillery Third, long-range precision weapons including 155mm artillery, 海马斯火箭 or other long-range weapons that can hit enemy targets on the front line and behind Russia has long had the upper hand but still lacks long-range firepower Although the海马斯火箭, which can accurately hit fixed targets, can be deployed the number is still very small In the past, most Russian artillery may have been located in the range of the first Russian FPV and 155mm artillery But in recent months the Russian army has started to use more small-caliber 122mm artillery instead of 152mm artillery These artillery fire lengths need to be closer to the front line to be effective Therefore, it is easy to be hit by short-range 155mm artillery and the first-person drone attack The maximum range of FPV drones is usually 20km This may be the main reason for the loss of more Russian artillery Recently, there have been many videos of Russian artillery being hit on social media and a large number of videos of FPV hitting 152mm artillery These videos reflect Russian artillery that may have been accidentally detected by Ukrainian reconnaissance drones and led to the destruction of Russian artillery or directly attacked by Ukrainian drones Especially since April this year we have seen a lot of Ukrainian long-range drones These fixed-wing drones are usually faster and heavier than the patrol drones This increases their combat range by 40 to 60km and lets most of the Russian artillery fall into their range Last year, the British Ministry of Defence reported that Russian FPV drones played an increasingly important role in the key anti-aircraft battle Russia only deployed a small number of FPV drones so their influence is limited If Ukraine can produce and equip thousands of similar weapons and can detect and position enemy targets they may have the ability to destroy more Russian artillery Although this kind of inference still lacks sufficient practical video evidence this can still be understood There is no reason for Ukraine to let Russia know what weapons caused its artillery losses to increase rapidly However, a video released by social media shows a video of a fixed-wing first-person drone attacking a Russian IS-7 long-range self-propelled artillery It seems that no one has seen any obvious signs showing that the Russian front-line artillery forces have been severely affected The losses of Russian troops seem to be making up for it Although the artillery has been severely depleted it still has enough ammunition to replenish Or maybe this has nothing to do with Pyongyang's military support for Moscow According to the previous loss rate Russian artillery is expected to last until 2025 This will have a huge impact on the Russian military's combat ability Drones and long-range missiles may make up for some of the shortcomings But due to the reduction in the number of artillery Russian offensive and defensive actions will be severely restricted The severity of this problem will depend on the rate of Russian artillery consumption and the duration of this situation That's all for today Thank you for watching See you next time