Olympic Medal Predictions For Every Sprint & Jump Event

We're about 5 days out from track and field kicking off in Paris, so it's time to start cranking out the serious bets. I did it last year for the world champs, and my track picks were tragic, but I did do pretty well in the field. The format's simple, these events, I pick medal predictions, you bully me for being dumb, then you do the same, unless you're a coward. And I know you're all here for the sprints, you absolute junkies. So there are timestamps, but I'm starting with the best event in the sport, the high jump. There's a lot to unpack. The depth of the field since the last Olympics is down, no Russians or Belarusian jumpers. Previous medalists at world champs like Javon Harrison and Karius Wu have been struggling leading into the Games. Tibi Fear could pop off at the Olympics, considering both have jumped 2.33 and 3.34 earlier in the year. Basham has also barely shown us anything this season, and Hamish Kerr has been winning everything. Insane all that. Tamberi for gold, Kerr for silver, and Basham for bronze. But obviously, my heart is rooting for something else. Tamberi's 2.37 jump at Euros was just magnificent. Daylights of clearance, yeah he had some hamstring issues recently, but he's announced he's at full health, and this guy, he loves the pressure. So I really have no doubt he's going big at Paris, it's just whether everyone else can pick up their game. Although I think Hamish Kerr is finally starting to develop that same affinity for performing. He's won 3 out of the last 4 Diamond Leagues, and I know he's got a good team around him who will get him to peak at these Games. The question is if he can keep focus, because he's won a lot of these competitions clutching third attempt jumps. But when it comes to the Olympics, those first attempts are crucial, and bronze was actually a hard choice. You got a lot of upcoming guys who have kind of just been struggling the last few competitions, as I said, but then you just gotta really consider who Barsham is. Dude jumped over 2.40 for like 6 years straight, 2.30 for a placing, with some adrenaline no problem. I was close to picking Mikuun actually, but I just don't like the way he jumps. And on the women's, Mihuchik. Last world champion, world record holder, world leader by 7cm, yeah you can't pick anyone else here, unless you're straight up a hater. She has previously struggled, in the big time a little bit, but to be fair she was young, and she's still only 22 now. In saying that, she very well could get sniped, if some others get over the 2m barrier. Right now, Olly Sluggers is by far her biggest competitor. She has jumped 2.03 at the start of this year, and if she can repeat that, 2.03, 2.04, a jump well within her range, it could go her way. Funnily enough though, I've still got Olly Sluggers in bronze, because Toppitch has been straight cooking. Funnily enough, there are 3 other girls who have gone over 2m a season, while Toppitch herself is still at 198. Yet if we're looking at consistency, Toppitch has been swept. 2 198 jumps, 2 197s, multiple 194s, plus she's an actual competitor. She finished 2nd at Euros to Mihuchik, 3rd at the last Diamond League to Mihuchik and Olly Sluggers, and even took a win against top contenders like Eleanor Patterson, the 2022 world champ, and Girashchenko, who comes 4th at every world championship and Olympic games. But I'm not afraid to say it, yes Glenn and Diston got over 2m, but looking at their performances even this season, they were freak performances compared to their norm. I personally think I've got the top 3 cracked, and I talked a big game, but you didn't have to wait too long, because the name might as well be Sprintman at this point. The men's 100m conversation has been dominated by 2 names, Kashane Thompson vs Noah Lyles, but as my last video might have given away, I'm all in Lyles for gold, obvious Thompson in silver, and then Seville for bronze. Lyles for gold is the slightly less attractive pick right now. I saw the comments, Kashane shutting it down to a 9.77, wasn't trying when he ran 9.82 in the heats, waltzed to a 9.91 to beat Tobogo, all of that. While most of these claims are true, he's still a big unknown. We've only seen him hit the track twice this year, and historically, running that fast again consistently after doing it only once is a tough thing to do, unless of course you're Usain Bolt. Lyles on the other hand has the experience, the confidence, has consistently backed the talk, and come back faster when he said he would. Plus that 9.81 in London showed us some dirty secrets. A good start, into a negative headwind, he's going sub 9.8 in Paris, and a bleak Seville in third, I'm almost doing him a disservice. He's on fire, running 3 9.8s this year, and even taking out Lyles in a photo so hot, that's eventually going on my wall. But someone's gotta miss out, and yeah there are some other hot contenders who could poach a medal, I'm not really confident in any of them. Omenyala, hometown altitude hero, Keary clutched and peaked for trials, dude's been struggling for 2 years, there's quite literally a chance the peak was at trials, Sambino's en route for another 9.9 finals, Marcel Jacobs would be really funny, but no. And Benirik and Tobogo, I think they're honestly my favourite picks to be the closest to steal the medals, but how could I put them over Seville or Kashane Thompson really? And then the women's side. You know the Olympics never go to plan, and I just have this feeling that a certain someone could blow up. I mean she may have won last year's world champs, but she quelled to the final off a time qualifier and won from lane 9, that's like a horse running with blinkers on. Still, she carried Richardson for gold, if she's on, she's on. I have my fears, but who else is in form enough to challenge a 10.71? Julianne Alford maybe, that's why she's my silver pick. Her fastest time being an impressive 10.78 PB this year, crushing in Jamaica, so yeah she's hot, but honestly what impressed me more was not only a 10.85 in a negative headwind in Monaco, but her 200 in London. 21.86 seconds, a personal best into a 0.9 headwind. She's in form, and whether the conditions are good or bad at Paris, she's looking in a position to be the fastest she's ever been. And now for the bronze take. Shelley Anne Fraser-Price. The Olympics never go to plan. Yes I'm throwing Jackson, Jefferson, Terry, Tallulh, I mean even Chukwuma and Clayton under the bus. All women who have gone faster this year, but this pick is about hopes and dreams, and that damn Nike poster, been there, won that, that is so sick. She's got 10.6s deep in her bones, and she knows how to medal when it counts. Ok, if I've got Lyles winning in the 100, he's taking the 200. World Record talk was premature last season, but if he can go 9.7 in the 100, he's going to storm to like a 19.2 in the 200. I won't say world record, but he's gone number 2 of all time, on the cards, even if he doesn't crack 9.7. Also after USA's, I've got Benerik in 2nd. If you want it to be spicy, you could put him in 1st. Like realistically, there was a glimpse. He came out faster than Noah in the first 100, and if he can repeat that after 3 rounds in the 100 and 2 rounds in the 200 at Paris, it's a possibility that Noah won't have the legs to catch up, and in bronze, to bug over anyone else. He hasn't shown us a lot leading directly into this Olympics, but he did go crazy early in the season with a 300 world record, 1971 in the 200 in Kenya, and that 9.88 in London, where he was caught smiling, that was straight fast, and the 200 is his better event. So you know, his speed's back, he's definitely taking out an out of shape knight in no problem. As for the defending Olympic champ, Andre de Grasse, even if he did run 19.62 again, I'm not even sure that would get him a medal this time round. And then on the women's, you can't slate Sharika Jackson twice. She's my gold medal pick, I know I left her out of my 100 picks, and it's honestly a bit stupid. Her 100 at trials showed us solid promise, 10.84, she's in shape, and she ran that time starting from behind. Give her another 100m, she's gonna run away from everybody else. For sure though, her results this year have been deceiving. I've then got Gabby Thomas as my solid silver pick, she's the fastest in the world this year, I don't know what you call this in London. And then for third, I have to humour the Brits at least once this video, Dina Asher-Smith. Yes, she got beat by both Thomas and Alfred in London, but this start gave me some insight. Like Beneric, come the bigger lights and being in perfect condition, she holds on and comes home in something crazy, like a medal. And for the other Americans, Gabby ran fast out of Hayward Field. Both Brown and Mackenzie Long have only ran sub 22 at Hayward Field this season, and if I'm biased towards one track being fast, I have to do the same for Hayward Field. Ok, the 400 hurdles. This event is just stupid. Yes, one of them could technically miss the podium, but would you realistically have anyone else but the big three on here? They're literally the fastest ever in the event. My order is Vorholm, Benjamin, then Dos Santos. And starting from the back, Dos Santos lost the last matchup and his last couple races have looked kinda weak. The fact being of the three, he's the only one who's actually ran hard and gone above 47 seconds while doing it. Rye I think is flipping the script slowly this year, breaking away from bringing the bridesmaid, but that last race at the Monaco Diamond League where Vorholm was ahead at the last hurdle, clipping it and getting just beat by Benjamin, it could be anyone's game. But if Vorholm does clean that up, I'm all in on the Viking. Again though, when discussing medals, this event is just dumb. You could put these fellas in any order and convince me of it. And then the women's side is even dumber. It's literally a two horse race. I want to see Femke Boll win. Sydney doesn't race, doesn't look like she enjoys the sport, but she's just so damn good. There isn't a doubt in my mind this matchup is going to be closer than we've ever seen it. There's even this image out there comparing Boll and McLaughlin at the last hurdle in their fastest runs, and they're equal. But how could you confidently pick Boll when Sydney has faster times in the 400 hurdles, obviously, the 400 flat, and the 200. Boll is good, but she's still weak in every event. And this event has always been a conversation between the two, but Jamaica's Russell Clayton broke out recently with a 52.51 second time, and looking between her and the others, she's also even more consistent. She also medalled last year and at the 2019 champs. Now the triple jump. This event has blown up with two swift efforts by Diaz Fortune and Pichardo, both going over 18 metres at Euros, garnering the title of the best triple jump competition in history. That's not true because the women's have done better. Anyway, I'm going with my gut. Jaden Hibbert for gold, Diaz Fortune for silver, and Pichardo for bronze. And honestly it's just because I like Hibbert. He's gone 17.75 metres this season after only three competitions coming back from an injury. He's really fun to watch, and an 18 metre jump is brewing. Also when it happens, I'll be able to say I called it, with the rest of Jamaican track fans. Diaz Fortune and Pichardo speak for themselves, both over 18 metre already this season, top 10 all time, Pichardo being the last Olympic champ and 2022 world champ, but he was whingy on Twitter for no real reason when he lost at the Euros, so he gets a bronze. Also real triple jump fans would consider last year's world champ Hughes Fabrice Zango. Zango has won 9 out of his last 10 competitions. But I don't have him in the picks, because while an impressive track record, he's struggled to get anything much further than 17.5 metres this year. He's literally got a 9 winning spree from beating everyone else that isn't the top 3. And yeah, I honestly don't see anyone mixing up this podium unless we get catastrophic fails in the qualifiers. And the women's side has been carried by Yulima Rojas the last 5 years. I mean a world record by a 24cm margin makes Jonathan Edwards, the legendary men's world record holder, look like a clown. And since 2017, she's basically won everything. I'm actually a massive fan and would almost consider her the goat of the jumps. But for now, she's injured. So while she's been down and out, two other athletes have been putting in the hard yards, and that's this year's world indoor champ, tier LaFond, and runner-up, Cuba's Pérez Hernández. And for me personally, the gold medal pick is obvious. Pérez Hernández. She has been tearing it up this season in Rojas' absence, 14.9m being the norm, and even jumping a wind-aided 15.16m. And yeah, LaFond has jumped further, but Pérez Hernández has beaten her 3 out of the 4 matchups this year. She knows how to win, and a big jump is brewing. I'm actually really excited to finally see her get that legal 15m jump and clean up at this Olympics. And second, I'm feeling disrespectful. Ukraine's Romanchuk. Yeah, I probably butchered that pronunciation. But in Monaco, she laid out a 14.81m jump straight away and into a headwind. Ironically, she actually lost to tier LaFond, who is my bronze medal pick by the way if I didn't mention it, but that was her debut this season. Last year she actually jumped 15m to take silver at the world champs, I think, it might have been the year prior, so I have faith for another 15m coming out of her. She might even take gold realistically if Pérez and tier LaFond don't get over 15m. Ok, there are some obvious guys in form right now, and sadly some who couldn't quite hold on. But this event is so volatile. Like Antonio Watson took last year's world champs, and he's not even on the 400 team this year. In saying that, all you can do is pick who you're confident in. Matthew Hudson Smith Gold, Michael Norman Silver, Alexander Dune Bronze. Hudson Smith is looking straight up invincible the last two races, and that 43.74 was a strength masterclass. He just couldn't stop moving. Norman showed a lot of potential at trials. Yeah, he died at the end, and there's a lot of guys quicker this year, but he's good at running fast times when he comes back from hard training or injury, and he's doing both currently. It's weird reasoning, but this dude has He's a bit of a weird fella, honestly. He also won the world champs in 2022, right before trying to go to the 100. Wasn't a super fast race though. And Dume, who I now just remembered is pronounced Dome, has just been putting in some good work. He won the indoor world champs, won Euros, would have had the European record if it wasn't for Hudson Smith going crazy. By now he must have a lot of confidence, and he's in good form. Of course there's many of the old heads like Gardner and Karani James who could show up, but Morales Williams has definitely had his legs ran off him this season. And then there's Quincy Hall. I'm doubting him for the pure reason he apologized and backed down on Twitter like a weenie after he talked some ----. Own that ---- and win gold, bro. And the women's 400, historically a lot more consistent, but there are a lot of athletes in good form. But, I would be lying if one name didn't stand out to me, that being Nikesha Price. She just stole the world lead of Sydney McLaughlin-Lebronnie with a 48.57 second time, and has been cooking all season. She could do the double this year. NCAA champ, right into Olympic champ, not many athletes have the opportunity to do that. In silver, I have Ireland's Adeleiki. She did finish 2nd to Cax Maric at Euros with a stunning 49.07 second time. But what has blown me away is her versatility. She's got legitimate 100m speed, clocking a windy 10.84 and then also a 22.35 second time in the 200 into a headwind. So at the pressure of a massive moment like the Olympics, I wouldn't be surprised if she proved herself the better athlete and took it all. And third, Paulino. She's been there, done that. Gold at last year's world champs, silver last Olympics, and has been slowly putting it together to challenge again. But her times haven't been as good as other years. Then Cax Maric misses out because she's shown weakness this year, going fast one race, then suck an ass the next. Rinse and repeat. Long jump. I'm an Italian jumps fan. They've already produced some of the world's best jumpers, but the young rising talent is just crazy right now. They've even produced a 15 year old who has jumped 7.9m if you didn't know. So gold pick, Mattia Filani. He's gone over 8.3m three times this year and specifically one of them being 8.38m for an under 20 world record. But it's the glimpses of his big foul jumps that get you really excited. Yes, he hasn't put it all together yet, but he's the guy who I think will hit that 8.8m jump. And if he doesn't, he'll probably still medal anyway. In silver, the master competitor, Greece's Tintoglou. I think it's fair to say any sane person would have him as their gold medal favourite, considering his season resume of the world lead at 8.65, which he jumped twice mind you, and 9 out of 10 wins this season. His singular loss only coming from a massive jump by Jamaica's McLeod with a freak 5.2m per second win behind him. If you scrapped that one jump from the competition, Tintoglou would have won that as well. Honestly, Tintoglou always wins, so it'll be sweeter when he faces a flying Filani and can't keep up, in my mind anyway. And bronze, it could be anyone, most likely one of the Jamaicans, but I'm going with a Croatian Pravdica. And this is a bit funny, for one reason only, because he might just be the most unathletic 8m long jump of all time. He's jumped 8.35m this year, but he hasn't cracked sub 11 in the 100m. That's ridiculous hops to speed ratio. Yes, there are better choices. And Eham has been kinda on fire, but I'll look pretty cool when Pravdica is on the podium. On the other side, two women stand far and above the rest this year. Davis Woodhall and Germany's Mohambo are leading the world by over 20cm. But Mohambo's jump, although into a freaky headwind, was 25cm better than her second best performance so far this year. So in saying that, because of a lack of consistency, I'm going with Tara Davis Woodhall, unchallenged. She's been over 7m almost every competition this year. And if I didn't make it clear, Mohambo in silver, and because I do have to pick a bronze medal, Pamela Medkova from Bulgaria. She's a young gun at 19, and has shown some crazy improvement this year, going from her PB in 2022 of 6.66m to 6.97m this year, and she's improved like this with only one month leading into the champs. It's a gamble, but so is every pick. There's a good chance a young athlete like this, with one big jump, falls off in the qualifiers. Or, she shows this wasn't a fluke, and does it again on the big stage. Men's and women's short hurdles. The men's 110, Grant Holloway is looking unbeaten boys every year. Doesn't mean he can't be beat though. As dominant as he is, I think everyone is very well aware of the weaknesses in his race. He can absolutely be hawked down at the line. It was even looking close at trials, and then it looked pretty close at Monaco as well. Still, gold medal pick. He's won the last 3 world champs, he had a hiccup at the last Olympics, and he puts together his race like 99% of the time. His odds to lose gotta be long. Personally in silver and bronze, I got Italy's Simonelli and Japan's Muratake, both born 2002, so relatively young fellas. Simonelli has been doing work all season, silver to Holloway at world indoors, European champion, running at big races and going 13 low every single time. The European champs are also a fantastic indicator he can run the rounds and do it well, with 13.05 seconds being his best time this year, and he did it in the finals there. And Japan's Muratake is a bit of a wildcard pick. Check this out though, dude has been running 13 13.1 and 13.0s in Japan against domestic competition into headwinds as well all year. He comes out to one diamond league this year, runs the fastest time in the heats, and doesn't start at the final. Looking back, that could mean injury, but dude is legit fast and I like my Japanese underdogs. Ok, now for the women's. All year, this one has been ridiculous. We're looking at 11 women who have gone faster than the current world record holder and 2022 world champion, Toby Amu-san. And even then, she's still in the middle conversation herself. To make a long story short though, because literally any of these women who have gone 12.4 and faster could take it this year, so picking out of a hat, Jamaica's Akira Nugent, NCAA champ Grace Stark, and for some experience, Camacho Quinn. So, Nugent went nuts with first a 12.46 into a negative 1.1 meter second headwind, to then take the world lead, which to be fair did get beat an hour later by Russell, going 12.28 seconds for a huge personal best. Even though Masaya Russell has ran faster this year, I'm more convinced by Akira Nugent, mainly because it wasn't at Hayward Field. Now talking Grace Stark, she was destroying the NCAA all year, continued form into trials, and took out Amu-san and Russell at the Holloway Classic into some big headwinds only the other week. She also trains with Holloway, so she's got that going for her. And Camacho Quinn ran down all our world's best at the start of this year at the Chinese Diamond Leagues, and she's a medal specialist, gold, silver, and bronze at the Olympics and last two world championships. She'll be on the podium, because realistically when everyone turns up to the same event, she's just consistently better. And lastly, finishing off with some throws. In the men's shot put, Joe Kovacs is the world leader 23.13m, but he has not been in that form since. Silver gold, **** him, Leonardo Fabri breaks 23m to take it. Ryan Krause for silver in a rare two defeats in a row, and not at all for third, because Tom Walsh might not even be the best New Zealander shot putter at this year's Olympics. The main thing I want to talk about is Fabri's volatility. I like the way he celebrates, he's an animated character, and he's honestly a joy to watch. And if we actually talk performances, he's also thrown consistently big, but only really at home in Italy. Literally all four of his 22.8m plus throws being at home. But he won in London against all the big dogs, and that's enough for me. Plus Krause just can't keep doing it. And I'm choosing the women's discus for my counterpart throws. I've been thoroughly enjoying Allman's domination this season, and I'm looking forward to it again at Paris. Claire, gold medal pick. She's one of the two ladies over 70m this year, being her and Cuba's Perez, but Allman has her beat in all four matchups so far this year. Also Perez won't even be at Paris because of defecting from her home country. So Allman ends up being the leader by distance in the Olympic field as well. She can taste her second Olympic gold. And historically this event is kind of volatile, Bin Feng was the 2022 world champ, Telsaga won last year, and then she didn't even make the US team this year. It can kind of go anywhere. But China's Bin Feng, she has been consistently throwing 67m this year, and who knows what China be doing pre-Olympics. And I'm picking Croatia's Elke Sevic for bronze. Bit of a Croatian bias, she's actually been a bit inconsistent this year, but she did take the European champs over Van Klinken when it counted. And that's it. Pick stump. I'll be amazed if anyone actually made it to the end. I definitely overextended. I actually did a take of this with the 1500m involved, but I realised I have absolutely nothing of value to say on distance runners. I kind of just watch it and my brain melts. That doesn't mean I don't enjoy it though. I'm really interested to see everyone else's picks, and then after the Olympics, this entire video and comment section will be a great case study of how delusional we are. I hope you all have a blast watching the Olympics, and subscribe if you're a track enjoyer, plus consider supporting the channel down below at my Patreon, as I usually cover what's happening, not trying to predict it.