Why The Celtics' Defense Has Them In the Title Picture

The Boston Celtics have had one of the more remarkable turnarounds of the NBA season. After starting the year a disappointing 17-19, the Celtics went 22-8 in their first 30 games in 2022, good for the best record in the NBA since the calendar term. That improvement is largely thanks to them flipping the switch on defense, going from being ranked 9th in defensive rating on New Year's Eve to being the number one defense in the league just a few months later. Their offense still leaves a lot to be desired some nights, but as the old adage goes, defense wins championships. So can it win the Celtics their 18th in franchise history this season? It wouldn't shock me. Before we dive into the Celtics, we should make it clear that defense really does win championships. Or rather, it's hard to win a championship without a top-notch defense. Since NBA.com began collecting points per possession data in the 1996-1997 season, only two champions have had a defensive rating outside of the top 10. The 2018 Golden State Warriors and the 2001 Los Angeles Lakers. And those teams were obviously carried by historically dominant offensive players who could carry lackluster defenses. But it's not enough to just look at overall defense, especially when talking about postseason basketball. With the pace much slower and opponents having more time to game plan for one another, it is imperative to play good half-court defense in the playoffs. Since Clint in the Glass began tracking half-court points per 100 possessions in the 2003-2004 season, only three NBA champions have fallen outside of the top 10 in half-court defense. The 2021 Milwaukee Bucks, 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers, and 2006 Miami Heat. The 2022 Celtics do not have to worry about this. Not only are they the number one overall defense in the NBA, allowing just over 105 points per 100 possessions, but they're also the number one overall half-court defense, allowing 89.7 points per 100 half-court possessions. And it's not hard to see why the C's D is so stout. Their nightly rotation doesn't have any weak links on that end of the court. Their two most defensive-minded starters, Marcus Smart and Robert Williams, both help anchor the Celtics in very different areas. Smart, the two-time first-team all-defensive member, is remarkable at the point of attack, taking on the assignment of guarding the best guard, or even player, on the opposing team night in, night out. He's in the top 10 in deflections per game, loose balls recovered per game, and steals per game this season. As for Williams, the fourth-year center has really come into his own this season, becoming one of the best rim protectors in the NBA. Among centers that have defended over 700 rim attempts, Williams is number one in defensive field goal percentage. According to B-Ball Index, he's in the 99th percentile in blocks on contests, and in the 86th percentile in help side rim protection. It's not just Smart and Williams, though. Al Horford has looked rejuvenated at the seasoned age of 35, Grant Williams has stepped up as a reliable wing defender, and the recent acquisition of guard Derek White has helped shore up their point of attack. Even the Celtics' offensive studs in Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum are two-way players who, when engaged, are good team defenders. And ultimately, first-year head coach Ime Udoka has a versatile roster, capable of playing a variety of defensive schemes, whether that's a traditional drop coverage with Williams or Horford as rim protectors, or their staple switch-heavy scheme that is routinely suffocating opposing offenses. Defensively, the Celtics very much so look like a championship team. But what about on offense? Well, let's go back to that historical context. Since the 1996-1997 season, four NBA champions have had an offensive rating outside of the top 10. The 2020 Lakers, 2010 Lakers, 2008 Celtics, and 2004 Pistons. But let's dive deeper. Much like on the defensive side of the ball, playoff offenses need to be elite in half-court settings when the pace of play is much slower. Since 2003-2004, only three NBA champions have not had a top 10 half-court offense. Once again, the 2020 Lakers, 2010 Lakers, and 2004 Pistons, according to Cleaning the Glass. The outlier? The 2008 Celtics weren't in the top 10 in offense generally, but were 6th in half-court points per 100 possessions. It helps when you have the spot-up shooting of Ray Allen, the pull-up shooting of Paul Pierce, and the interior touch of Kevin Garnett. Simply put, though, champions tend to have great-to-elite offenses in addition to top-end defenses. Go figure. So where does that leave the Celtics? Well, they are 14th in the league in overall offense and 13th in a half-court setting. Decent ranking, but not necessarily championship level. If we look closer, however, since their remarkable turnaround on defense, their offense has been shaping up as well. Since January 1st, the Celtics rank as the 8th best offense overall, according to Second Spectrum data, while their half-court offense has moved up to 10th. That is, without a doubt, a meaningful improvement, one that should at least bunch them in with the rest of the contenders in the Eastern Conference. But their offense still leaves us with questions. The Celtics are still a very jump-shot-reliant team. They are 27th in the league in rim frequency. They rely heavily on pull-up shooting, primarily from Tatum and Brown, and while those are the players you'd want with the ball in their hands if you're a Celtics fan, they both pick less than 30% of their shots at the rim. In the playoffs, you need to find a way to score easy buckets, and there's no easier shot than being two feet away from the basket. Still, no team is perfect, especially in this year's Eastern Conference. In fact, as things currently stand, the Celtics have the highest championship probability in the Conference, according to 538. The Bucs, Sixers, and Heat will all have something to say about that, of course. But at the end of the day, the Celtics are a dominant defensive team, with an offensive star who has carried them to three Eastern Conference Finals appearances in the last five seasons. They are a real threat, ultimately, and I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of June, it's the Celtics raising the Larry O'Brien trophy. Thanks for watching. If you liked this video and want to see more content like this, hit that subscribe button.