Tech should be a part of long-term strategy but not the whole thing, says Julie Biel

Invest Insight
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2 Video Views·Oct 12, 2024
Julie Biel, chief market strategist at Kayne Anderson Rudnick, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss the risk vs reward in Nvidia, the case for small caps, and more.
Joining us now is Julie Beal.
She's chief market strategist at Cain Anderson Rudnick
and a CNBC contributor.
Great to see you again, Julie, working overtime.
But let's start-
Here we are again.
We teased a little bit on your NVIDIA position.
Can we just start there?
Because I always think of you as more of a small,
maybe it was a small cap when you were first buying it.
It's in another portfolio than the one that I run,
but at our firm, we've owned it for over a decade.
And that was really based off of this technology
that was quite groundbreaking.
And its applications were still not really,
it hadn't really found its footing
in terms of the right application
for this really powerful chip.
Eventually it found that in gaming,
and then by a very happy accident,
it is the perfect application for it in AI.
All right, so what's the concern that you have
with large cap tech in general right here?
I think that the expectations are really, really high
in terms of what AI can deliver in the near term.
And my concern with NVIDIA in particular,
not that we are interested in selling the position,
but the thing that gives me a little bit of pause
in terms of adding,
is just that there's so much customer concentration, right?
It's about five companies
that are driving the majority of that business.
And so it's not that I'm worried
that these companies are gonna go elsewhere,
not materially really,
but what I worry about
is just that they slow down their spending.
And when you have expectations
as high as they are for NVIDIA,
that can be a concern
that can really create a lot of disappointment
and hurt feelings in investors as they pull back.
That said, I think there's been disappointment
and hurt feelings
in how small caps have done since the Fed cut.
Yeah, but I think it makes sense, right?
If you look at 90% of a stock's performance,
it's really driven by earnings
and small cap earnings really haven't troughed yet.
The hope is that second quarter
really was the earnings trough for them
and that in this quarter
is that we're gonna have reporting soon,
we're going to see that growth.
The thing that's nice about it
is that expectations are still relatively reasonable,
valuations are reasonable
and they have much easier year-over-year comparisons
than what you see in large caps.
So I think the setup is good.
It's impossible to predict when the turn is gonna happen,
but I think small caps should be part
of every investor's balanced diet.
And your biggest area of confidence in single stocks
for those who are curious,
I mean, you've got a couple of water plays
in mind right now.
Yeah, I think water is definitely not as sexy as AI,
but it's pretty critical
and our infrastructure is certainly
very underdeveloped and underfunded.
There are a few names such as Advanced Drainage
where we're really converting our concrete pipe
over to these more plastic HDPE pipe.
This is what they have mostly in Europe.
They have a really solid competitive position
in this market
and I think there are really attractive growth fundamentals.
They're less volatile from an earning standpoint
than most of what you're gonna see in other sectors.
So again, I think it's part of a balanced diet
of what you want in your portfolio.
I wonder if that's who I should blame
for the road work that's been going on
all around our town.
They're replacing some kind of water pipe though.
Maybe we should check back in with the firm.
Julie, thanks.
We appreciate your time today
and your thoughts on the whole situation.
Thank you.
Julie Beal with Kane Anderson Rudnick.
