美 대선, 선거인단 한 표로 승패 갈릴 수도…제도 개편 분주해진 양당 [팩트매터]

One of the odd things about the electoral college system is the fact that it is possible to produce an actual tie. And perhaps even odder than that is the fact that this year's election is so tight, at least according to the polls, that it appears that that is exactly the direction we're headed. You see, the electoral college system is set up in the following way. The number of electors that each state gets is equal to the combined number of representatives that that state has in Congress. And so, as an example, California has 52 representatives in the House, as well as two senators. And therefore, in the electoral college, California has 54 electoral votes. Texas has 38 representatives in the House, as well as two senators. And therefore, Texas has 40 electoral college votes. That's just generally how it works. And so when you combine all the states, including Washington, D.C., with its three votes, you get a total of 538 electors in total. And in order to win the White House, a candidate must get at least 270 of them. However, you might notice something odd, which is the fact that 538 is divisible by two. And with the current breakdown of the votes throughout the nation, a tie is possible within the current system. And furthermore, given the current polling data, a tie in the electoral college is not only possible, but it's actually looking more and more likely by the day. Up on your screen right now is a possible election results map for the year 2024. This map is actually fairly realistic, with several battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania going blue, while several others like Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina going red. This scenario is actually perfectly in line with the current polling data, which shows Harris and Trump within the margin of error of each other in these different battleground states. If that map is how the election winds up shaking down, the result would be a tie in the electoral college, with each candidate receiving 269 votes. And so let me break down for you two things. Firstly, what exactly will happen if there is a tie? And secondly, what Republicans are currently doing to try and make sure that a tie is mathematically impossible. Let's start with that second point. Within the electoral college system, the two states of Maine and Nebraska are, you can say, a little bit unique. They are the only two states that don't have a winner-take-all system. Instead, both Maine and Nebraska assign their electoral college votes based on the popular vote in each congressional district. And so while almost every other state in the nation, they give all of their electoral college votes to the state's popular winner, Maine and Nebraska, they actually split up their votes based on districts. What this means in practice is that in Nebraska, the Republican might get four of the electoral college votes, while the Democrat might get one, while over in Maine, the Democrat might get three votes, while the Republican gets one. That's actually exactly what happened in the year 2020, where in Nebraska's overall population, they voted 58% for Trump and 39% for Biden. But because of Nebraska's unique system, Trump only got four of the electoral college votes and Biden got one. Because again, they were split along congressional districts. However, this is exactly the system that Republicans in Nebraska are trying to change ahead of this year's presidential election. And they might actually prove successful. Because you see, besides this unique electoral college setup, Nebraska has another political quirk. It is the only state in the nation that has a unicameral legislature. This means that unlike every other state that has both a state assembly as well as a state senate, Nebraska has one. They have a unified legislature with one single chamber that consists of 49 state senators. And as you would imagine, Nebraska's state legislature is a conservative stronghold, with most of the senators being Republicans. In fact, after the 2022 midterms, the Republicans held 32 out of 49 seats. However, something happened back in April, where the number, it actually increased from 32 to 33. That's because back in April of this year, a Nebraska state senator named Michael McDonald, he actually switched party affiliation, and he went from being a Democrat to instead being a Republican. In explaining why he made the change, he cited his Catholic faith and the fact that he was being punished for his pro-life views. Here is specifically what he said in a statement when announcing the switch in his party affiliation, quote, When I ran for re-election in 2020, I was pro-life. I have asked the Democratic Party to respect my religious-based pro-life position. Instead, over the last year, they've decided to punish me for being pro-life. Being a Christian member of the Roman Catholic Church and pro-life is more important to me than being a registered Democrat. And so with this switch, this is where things really get interesting. Because with the senator flipping his party affiliation, the Republicans in the Nebraska state legislature now hold 33 Senate seats. And the reason that that number is so significant is because you need 33 votes in order to overcome a filibuster, which the meaning that if all the Republican senators get on board with an idea, they can push that idea through the state legislature, even if every single Democrat opposes it. And along that line, Nebraska Republicans are pushing for the state to change its electoral vote process into a winner-take-all system. Earlier this month, Nebraska's delegates in Congress, they sent a letter to both the governor, Mr. Jim Pillen, as well as the speaker of Nebraska state legislature, Mr. John Arc, urging them to quickly pass a bill and sign it into law to make this change ASAP. And then furthermore, just last week, you had Senator Lindsey Graham fly over to Lincoln, Nebraska in order to meet with both the governor as well as several state legislators in order to push them to adopt a winner-take-all system before the 2024 election. And after the closed door meetings were held, well, here's what Lindsey Graham said to the And then he went on further, referencing the Omaha district of Nebraska, which leans more Democrat, Lindsey Graham added the following, quote, And indeed, he might be very correct, because according to an analysis from Semaphore, there is a plausible scenario, which we showed on screen earlier, where the entire 2024 election comes down to Nebraska's second district, quote, Meaning that without Omaha, it would be a 269-269 tie. And the Harris campaign is very much aware of this. That's because while the Republicans are trying to change the state to a winner-take-all system, the Harris campaign is instead trying to drum up support within Omaha. In fact, just to give you an idea of how important this one electoral college vote is, just last month, Tim Walz held an entire rally over in Omaha in order to drum up support for the Harris ticket, even though again, they only represent one vote. And the strategy appears to be effective, given the fact that Omaha is currently polling in the direction of Harris by about eight points ahead of Trump. And so if nothing changes, if the election is held as is, then that one electoral college vote goes to Harris. But if the system does change, it would go to Trump. And so what happens next? Well, about a week and a half ago, Governor Pillan of Nebraska, he publicly stated that he is willing to call forth a special session of the legislature in order to pass a bill into law, ASAP, implementing a winner-take-all system before the 2024 election. Here's what he said as a part of a statement, quote, as governor of Nebraska, I will never waver in my commitment to do what is right for our state. As I have consistently made clear, I strongly support statewide unity and joining 48 other states by awarding all five of our electoral college votes to the presidential candidate who wins the majority of Nebraskans votes. However, it's worth mentioning that later on in a statement, he mentioned that he would only do this if he knew that he had the support of 33 state senators. But this is exactly where he runs into an issue. That's because state senator Mike McDonnell, he's the one who switched party affiliation from Democrat to Republican back in April because of his pro-life views. Well, he's actually likely going to be running for mayor of Omaha next year. And so despite him being a Republican, part of his political calculus is considering whether or not he wants to vote in order to help Trump this presidential election shortly before he himself runs for mayor of a blue city. That's his consideration. Also, just as an interesting aside, the Democrats over in the state of Maine, they said that they would switch their state to a winner-take-all system as well if Nebraska does, which would essentially cancel out the gain of the one electoral college vote. However, in terms of Maine, that is actually an empty threat since they've actually missed their deadline already. Quote, there have been reports that Maine Democrats said that they would switch to winner-take-all system if Nebraska does to counteract the effect that this would have on Trump and Harris. Having a winner-take-all system in their state would help Harris. However, it's too late for them to do this since it takes 90 days for legislation to go into effect in Maine after it is enacted and the electoral college meets on December 17th, which is 88 days away. But in Nebraska, it's a different system. They could literally enact the change the day before the election and it would instantaneously go into effect. And so what this means in practice, which is a crazy scenario, if you really think about it, Omaha's single electoral college vote right now depends solely on one single man. State Senator Mike McDonnell single-handedly will decide by himself who gets this one electoral college vote, which is really wild if you think about it. Because I mean, if you take California as an example, they have a population of about 39 million people and they have 54 electoral college votes. Meaning if you do the math, that each electoral college vote represents about 720,000 people. And yet over in Omaha, who gets that precious single electoral college vote is not decided by hundreds of thousands of people or even tens of thousands of people. It's actually being decided by one single man. Kind of crazy if you think about it. Regardless, if this were to not happen, if Nebraska stays as it currently is and a tie does occur at the electoral college, well, something called a contingent election will be held in the house of representatives. This process is governed by the 12th amendment to the US constitution, which reads as follows in relevant part. If no person gets a majority, then from the candidates having the highest number of votes, the house of representatives shall choose immediately by ballot the president, but in choosing the president, the vote shall be taken by states. The representation from each state having one vote. And so in plain English, during a contingent election, the three leading candidates are taken. And then each state delegation in the house gets one single vote regardless of that state's population. Now, as it currently stands, when you look at it, the majority of house delegations are Republican giving Trump an advantage. However, there are alternatives. For instance, you currently have RFK jr requesting the US Supreme court to put his name back on the ballot in the state of New York. His rationale is that even though it's a very long shot, if there were to be a contingent election, then he RFK jr would be one of the three candidates to be selected. And therefore he might have a shot to get into the white house. Here's specifically how RFK jr himself broke down his rationale. Quote, if you do vote for me and neither of the candidates wins 270 electoral votes, which is quite possible. In fact, today, our polling shows them tying at 269 to 269. I could conceivably still end up in the white house in a contingent election. And just for your general reference, this has actually happened before in American politics in the 1824 election. None of the candidates received the majority and therefore the house voted to have John Quincy Adams become president. Despite the fact that during that election, Andrew Jackson had actually won the popular vote. And so that is the situation as it currently stands. The presidential race is super close, at least according to the polls and possibly headed for an actual tie. Republicans are trying to change the system over in Nebraska to tip the scales in Trump's favor. It's unclear whether they will actually be successful due to a single Republican holdout. If the Republicans make that change though, Democrats over in the state of Maine so that they will change their system to cancel it out. But actually it's too late for them to make that change, at least for this year. And all the while, if this does not happen and a tie does occur at the electoral college, there will be a contingent election held in the house between Trump, Kamala, and quite likely RFK Jr. If you'd like to dig deeper into this possibility, the history behind it, as well as all the polling data that we discussed in today's episode, I'll throw all my research notes down into the description box below this video if you're the type of person who likes to dig into the wheat. And then until next time, I'm your host Roman from The Epoch Times. Stay informed and most importantly, stay free.