“Housing Market MELTDOWN” - Why U.S Home Prices Have PLUMMETED To 14 Year LOW!

Home sale sales on track for the worst year since 95. This is WSJ. Look at that chart, Vinny. Look at that chart right there. Craziness. US home sales are on track on the worst year since 95 due to high home prices and elevated mortgage rates. September sale fell another 1% from August to an annual rate of 3.84 million, the lowest since October of 2010 with a three and a half percent drop compared to the same period last year, according to the national association, realtors, Lawrence, young NARs, chief economists remarked that home sales are stuck at low levels and forecasted 2024 sales could match for, um, or fall below 2023 levels, persistently high mortgage rates, which recently spiked after briefly dipping to a two-year low are deterring buyers. Michael read from Bridgewater Bridgeway mortgage and real estate services noted that trickle up in rates to right back where we are just sucked up. Suck the air out. Mortgage rates driven by a 10-year treasury note have been volatile, making home purchases more on affordable top. Well, look, people are thinking that rates is the only thing connected to the market. And we talk about this. We say rates are going to help, but what rates usually help happen is more houses come on the market. Now, a lot of houses have been built this year. Lynair toll brothers. And you can go look at the more you home builder indexes are way up this year. So they're actually building more houses. They're just not building as many as are needed. We need even more and with more supply, the price comes down. So that's the first lesson with more supply, the price comes down and the prices haven't come down and Florida is had, um, increases in, um, insurance, home insurance down here. So the number of people we'll take back to it again, that are willing to sell mom and pop want to sell their house in Parsippany, New Jersey, and move down to Boynton beach and retire. They're like, wait a minute. We still have $200,000 on a little mortgage. If we go down there, we're going to have to pay actually the same for a house. It used to be that you sold your house in Parsippany, you downsize and bought something smaller and maybe even a small or no mortgage. Well, now they're saying, nope, we can't do it. The math doesn't add up and we're going to have a little bit more insurance costs. So guess what? The prices haven't come down because the supply hasn't come down and the supply is being held up by, you know, insurance and property taxes. And so the banks got the rate cut, but then they also didn't get an increase in, um, in demand. So if you've got low demand, you know, you would think that price would go down to spur it. But the banks have said, nope, you know what? We're going to leave the rate right here at six and a quarter, right here at six and a half. We're not going down to five, not going to five, eight, seven, five, which they were for about a week. Got a question for you. You're the president. Okay. You get elected. You win. What are two, three, four, five markers you have Tom to help this change? So the average American can afford to buy a home. What are the markers? I've got two. You've got drill baby drill. And that reduces the price of everything from shipping on their groceries to, to the gas in their car, to the fuel that heats their house, to the electricity, they pay for the air conditioning. I make United States and energy power because that is one button. The president can push to get a lot of prices to come down. That's affordability. The second thing is I give a lot of incentives out to those home builders. We need homes built. We need more homes built because the supply is going to come up. And then the other thing that I would do is I would adjust the tax policy. On when you sell a house, you usually get one time in your life. You don't talk about Pat where you don't have to pay the capital gains all the rest of the time, as long as you bought a house that was worth more called the 10 35 exchange, then you don't pay taxes on it, but I would give relief to incent the people that there are. And there is a, a lot of people in the Northeast that want to retire to a lower cost state, and I would take some of the tax off of that one time sale so that they'd be more willing to sell and put those houses on the market, but we need more supply. And then you need to make life more affordable. I would also do something else is that for federal, I would have federal flood insurance, uh, revamped because the catastrophic insurance is what is killing people in Florida. Basic home insurance has gone up, but it's nothing when you put the wind, the rain and everything else on it. And so you got to do something about catastrophic insurance to help Americans. Well, so there's my three markers and buttons. I don't want to upset the realtors out there or the mortgage bankers out there, but I would argue that this is probably one of the most overrated purchase decisions you can possibly make. Oh my God. How could I possibly say that? Well, I was, cause we've done the math here a million times on the show. Uh, buying a home is a deeply emotional component. You could touch it. You could feel it. You get it ready. Like your family lives there. It's a lifestyle choice, but if you're just solving for math and we've done this down by the best investment you can possibly make, the stock market actually doubles what real estate returns year over year over year. Actually, since COVID, this is the one time I think in the last 50 to a hundred years where real estate returns have actually been even close to double digits. If you remember us breaking down that math PPD. Now I get it. There's a lifestyle decision. It's an emotional component. You're like, where are you going to live? Where are you going to send your kids to school? This is a big decision. I mean, Rob did Rob bought a house recently because he even set himself and I kind of didn't mathematically do the thing financially. It didn't make sense, but this was actually what my kids wanted to do and what my family wanted to do. And it worked out well for my family, but mathematically it didn't work well. Uh, there's three things that are working against. If you're going to buy a house at this point and the numbers aren't in your favor, it's sort of a triple whammy. It's the highest prices that houses have ever been. The highest mortgage rates have been since what? The late eighties, early nineties. What's they just did an interest rate cut, but the mortgage rates went up. Is that what happened, Pat? Interest rates went up down for a moment and back to where they made no sense. So mortgage rates are at seven and seven and a quarter or whatever at this point. But then we talk about this all the time. The insurance rates are insane these days, whether it's for car insurance, whether it's for home insurance, it's just the math isn't adding up. And listen, if you want to buy a house, God bless you go for it. But there are better investments out. Well, we'll see what's going to happen next. Um, four years specifically after November 5th, the market's going to change majorly based on who's going to be the president. I mean, you're already seeing what, what wall street journal hedge fund guys are looking at the big game starts this Friday, the series starts this Friday, and here's what I wanted to do. Uh, I wanted to get a suite to take family and friends and to give you the as well as us here, my family and other friends in the suite for game five in New York, which is amazing, right? Yes, absolutely amazing. And here's what we're going to be doing, by the way, just so you know, the details on what these things are going for right now, it's ridiculous, the tickets, but all I'm saying is we sat down, we decided here's what I want to do. So what do we do about it? We created a sweepstake and the winner gets the one ticket plus $2,500 cash for your flight room, whatever you need to be doing to come join, by the way, it's going to be epic because it's going to be sick. It is game five. So, you know, who knows what's going to be taking place. The streets of New York are going to be wild. And the way you participate in this is the following for every $1 spent on VT merch store. Today you get an entry for every dollar spent. You get one entry, a hundred dollars, a hundred entries, $500. You buy five of these polo shirts. I fricking, this is all I'm wearing nowadays. Say it's $500, 500 entries, and you get to get up to a thousand entries. We will draw one random this Saturday morning, October 26, and we will immediately notify the winner. Then next Tuesday on the podcast, we'll announce who it is, but the person that wins, we will reach out to you. Uh, I'm excited about that. A couple of things I do want to tell you. It just so happens. 15 new hats are here today. So there's something to buy. This is the sickest new value team in green hat. Future looks bright. That just came out. It's absolutely amazing. Valuetainment. We have these new for some folks that like this design. We have the new American flag, Adam. Yeah, this one. Yeah, this is absolutely sick. We have 15 new designs, some for military, the red and black. We have the new allegedly hats where the allegedly lifts. We have the red American flag, green USA flag, but by the way, a bunch are on VT merch and all you need to, by the way, this is, these are again, memories because the last time this happened was 1981. All you need to do is go purchase merch for every $1 raffle gifts for yourself, for others, some of you guys that are coming to the party anyways, November 5th, this could be your way of doing it as well. Tom, do you have anything else to say before? If I missed anything, we have the legal stuff, go for it. Tom Ellsworth impersonating Don Pardo, the PVD podcast, 2024 baseball sweepstakes. No purchases necessary. It's sponsored by Valuetainment LLC and open only the legal residents of the 50 U S States and the district of Columbia who are 18 years old and above. The entry deadline is tomorrow night, Friday, October 25th at 11 59 PM for the full entry and full rules, visit the link at vtmerch.com and available in the description for this episode of the podcast that is found on the PVD podcast channel on YouTube. Void where prohibited go get in. I love it. Okay, Rob. So let's put the link there to go to vtmerch.com. Uh, I hope, I hope you participate. I want to spend some time with you. 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