2025 Mortgage Forecast: Top Analyst Predicts a Plunge – My Reaction!

Okay, let's put today's market in perspective. Here's what happened today, and I'm gonna give you my feedback on where I think we're going to go from here. So I'm gonna go over that with you here shortly. And then we have Barry Habib came out with some predictions and then also ClearTax, he just came out with his, and I have huge respect for both these guys. This guy is fantastic, so if you're not a viewer of his channel, please do so right down there below. If anybody knows him, I'd love to get connected with him, even at least just to talk to him, because I like what he does and I think he's local in Chicago as well. So if anybody knows him, please let me know. But these guys are coming out with some predictions, we're gonna go over that in a second. But the first thing I wanna go over is seeing the equity markets reaction to a lot of this. We're gonna go over the equities, we're gonna go over oil, we're gonna go over crypto, we're gonna go over the CME FedWatch tool to see how many rate cuts are expected. And then we're gonna try to put in perspective how Barry Habib and both Clear Channel are saying, mortgage rates are gonna plummet from here. So let's get to it. Right through here, here's where we're seeing the markets right now. Oil is up almost 4%, and the reason why I bring this up on the first screen, this is highly inflationary, okay? But let's get over to the broad indices right now, right through here that we're seeing. You're gonna see across the board more, there's basically red all the way across the board in equities. And then over through here, the VIX is up, that means the markets are really nervous. So the markets are selling off and they're really skittish at this time. And we're also seeing oil up. Again, this is huge inflationary pressures that we're seeing right through here. Let's get over to the bond market. The bond market is getting crushed today. It's down 56 ticks, and it's still continuing to drop. This is what's happening after the reaction of the markets on a great jobs report that just came out. So let's put some of this into perspective. Here's what the markets are looking for. They want cheaper money, okay? Previously, we thought, remember the Federal Reserve was supposed to cut rates, what, like 10 times or something like that? Now we've gone, I think, through three or four, and there's only one left that the markets are predicting. Let's get over to the CME FedWatch tool so I can show you that. So here's what the outlook looks for for the rest of this year. So right now, the federal funds rate with the Federal Reserve controls is at 4.25 to 4.5, okay? It's only showing one rate cut, and that's possibly taking place in June for this year. So now my question is, Barry, I love you, buddy, but how are you, and I hope you're right, but Barry Habib is saying within the next six months, we're going to have rates about 5.75 to 5.875, a huge drop from where we are, okay? So I'm going to do more research on this, but another guy that I follow, and yes, I follow people on YouTube as well, is right through here, ClearTax. This guy's awesome. He's local, and I'd love to meet him, but if you're out there, please watch his channel. He had a prediction on where mortgage rates are going to be this year, and he's expecting within the next three months, rates will be at 5.75 to 6.25. So not a nice spread there. So where are we now, and where are they expecting it to go? So right now, like I said, we're at 7.25. So that means rates are going to go, if they're going to go down to, say, 5.75, that's about 150 basis points off the rates. So what would cause that? That's my uncertainty. So I'm going to do some research and dissect into why these guys are predicting these rates, but here's what I'm seeing in the background. We still have the treasury is still dumping just tons, or I'll say selling tons and tons of treasuries because the government keeps still overspending, okay? So as the new administration comes in, we're going to monitor that as well, and if they're still overspending on stupid stuff, I'll be the first one to call it out, okay? So there's uncertainties in the market. So the only thing that they're thinking of is, okay, with the Trump administration coming in, is that going to, and Doge, is that going to really take a pull down on how much debt that we have as a country going through there? Are they going to cut our expenses quite a bit? Doge said they might be able to cut a trillion dollars out of the budget just by cuts here and there on the fat that the government has. So, but that's not going to take place in three to six months. So my projection on where rates are going to be, I would be tickled pink. If we can get down into six and a half to 7% range, that's what I think the trajectory is for 2025. But again, guys, I'm not giving these guys any flack. I think they're fantastic on what they do, and I hope they're right. But my predictions for this year is about six and a half to 7%, and you know the why's behind the scenes. So if you want to check out my newsletter, I post this, I try to post this at the end of each day, and I'm sorry I do a pretty bad job at this, but I'll try to post these down below in my description videos down there, so you guys can take a glimpse at my market summaries that I post each day on my social media. You can check that out, and it gives you a little bit of a summary of what happened today, and the why's behind it, and then gives you a calendar for the week of what's coming up. So what we have coming up next week is a lot of stuff on the plate. We're going to have all inflationary numbers coming in next week, and that will be market movers for sure, one way or another. But again, I hope ClearTax and Barry Habib are correct, because I would love, and you would love, to see rates about 6% in three to six months, and that's what we're hoping for. So that's my report for today, folks. I hope you have a fantastic weekend. If you want to learn more about me and my team, please visit me at The Rate Update. We can help you no matter where you're in the country. Here's our slogan for this year. One application, one credit pool, and we're going to shop your loan to dozens of different lenders. How, why, what do we do? Well, my name is Dan Fria, I work at ServBank, one of the country's largest mortgage servicers in the entire country, believe it or not. And we're also one of the country's largest mortgage brokers. We're set up with dozens of lenders right now. So basically, here's the gist of it. If you're trying to get mortgage quotes, you go online, you're going to see all kinds of people's, their preferred rates, and then they want you to apply and everything else. How about one application, one credit pool, and we're going to shop your loan to all those companies. Let us take the heavy lifting out of this for you. So that's what we do here. So if you want to check out our channel, go to TheRateUpdate.com. If you want to put in your application, there it is. The link's right there. But what we want you to do is this. Think if you're trying to buy three, four, $500,000 home. If you had three, four, $500,000 to invest, would you just watch a YouTube video and then send the person three or four or $500,000 and say, hey, invest it for me? No, you'd probably want to say, okay, let's talk, let's vet, you, I want you to know me. And I want to know your story. So check out our one-on-one consultations that we've set up right through here. So you can set up a one-on-one consultation right there, or better yet, how about just call us or email me? You can do that right at the bottom of the website. You got to call us at 844-775-5626, or you can reach me personally at danatherateupdate.com. And why do I do this? I don't check out all the comments down below, guys, because there's a lot of nonsense down there. So if you really want to find the answer to a question, please email me. And if you want to provide your phone number, I'd be more than happy to call you as well. So have a fantastic weekend. God bless, folks. I'll see you here next week. Take care.