Touchdowns, Romance & Mount Rushmore at the Box Office!

Hello everyone Welcome to ticket to ride. How are you guys season? Season two Mike poly doors paper airplane Thaddeus Bouchard screen dollars and me Paul deGarabedian Tom score We're here to talk about Super Bowl weekend, which just happened then we're gonna Right on the horizon. We're gonna talk about the all-important Especially this year well every year president's weekend and combined with Valentine's Day Which is always a very interesting one. We have a lot of great stats to share. So let's get right into it We may actually even have some show-and-tell for those Viewing this on YouTube or on various clips Well, I want to go I want to go back to the game for a second Which anyone who was watching it was over about eight minutes into the in first quarter But you know, I must say the snacks were really good you know it was a really you know was kind of keeping an eye on the Sunday numbers because There had been a lot of talk and I have not seen the overnight numbers yet. We're recording on Monday afternoon and There was a lot of talk about Super Bowl fatigue meaning, you know you had the Chiefs in their third straight the Eagles were this was the second year out of three that they were there and a Couple of indicators that the game didn't quite have the same Cachet say to speak was the ticket prices on the secondary market were pretty much I think what they said was at a low for like the last ten years and then Vegas was reporting in Vegas as you know is a big destination for the Super Bowl people want to go and have fun You know bet the game have go to parties. They had an abundance of rooms available You could you know, I mean dirt cheap to go so and when you looked at it compared to other Super Bowl Sundays Yesterday was actually two or three points better than it probably should have been but somebody brought up to me today that Saturday was actually not as big as it should be and we always talk about this and and when you're looking at box office numbers There's always an ebb and a flow. There's the Saturday bump on Friday and then there's the Sunday decline and normally on a Super Bowl Sunday You would have seen eight or Super Bowl weekend. You would have seen a bigger kind of bump on Saturday so that wasn't quite as much but Sunday didn't have quite the decline So I guess maybe it all evens out in the end Yeah And I think the you know that it was around fifty four fifty five million which was up forty for the entire weekend for all films, that's up about forty percent versus the Thirty-eight point nine million that the total box office was for Super Bowl same weekend a year ago That weekend was topped by Argyle in weekend two with a mere six point two million So this was a much better weekend than the one last year. Now, you know, we got what you got bear ball. That's the Nancy thing you put together. Oh, yeah with a little couple of footballs, you know, and those are fair use football images and and so It's interesting to look back and I love how Hannah Montana the Miley Cyrus best of both worlds tour Powered a hundred and twenty eight million dollars Super Bowl overall frame Obviously, that's a three-day frame Friday through Sunday. That was a g-rated concert movie But I think what's particularly interesting about this chart is the column that says Super Bowl weekend percent change versus the previous weekend So virtually in every single year at least going back to like Oh six on this chart You saw a decline anywhere from 8.4 percent which was a nominal decline to it like a 30 actually if this year a 38 percent drop And that's to be expected. We all know that it's Super Bowl weekend the focus shifts to the gridiron And and let's face it. There was nothing, you know studios are reticent to put like their big tent poles on a Weekend like that, but the the numbers are clear. It's just Super Bowl weekend is is a it can be a land of opportunity. Let's say for Smaller films or a film like the two top earners for this past Super Bowl weekend With with hard eyes and love hurts So, you know never expect to be a blockbuster weekend, but not a total fumble. Well, you're humble That's very funny nice pun, you know, the other thing when you look at it Paul, you know going back to 2015 was kind of the last year that it broke the hundred million dollar mark, too which Kind of you know over the last ten years or so I think the Super Bowl is kind of even evolved greater than it was prior to that which is indicated in and again It's a bit as you say a self Fulfilling prophecy because the studio stay away from the weekend Therefore the content that comes out isn't necessarily the kind of content that's going to generate the kind of grosses We're going to see next weekend. So that becomes a you know, it's a bit of a vicious cycle Mike I think I just sort of shout out to dog man I guess that was the dog man was sitting there and saying what are you talking about? I had a great weekend That's right an American sniper, you know led that weekend. That was weekend six for that movie You know, it opened in the previous year and then expanded and actually the week before had an 80 million dollar I believe a weekend so that really powered a nice weekend there daddy is One ass daddy is like from your point of view Like what is it could could the industry like what would take in for example go? Counter-programming put a big movie out there and kind of do a Hail Mary hoping that they can succeed on a weekend that Historically is it does not provide that kind of well I mean sometimes sort of gaps these sort of you know The studios make their decisions about what they're going to release, you know Obviously far in advance or relatively far in advance and then they don't always get it, right You know sometimes seems like there's a gap in the release calendar but some film is either building through a sort of platform progressive expansion type of release or some film just kind of Resonates that wasn't really expected to resonate. So you have these surprises. So, you know, could it happen or you know in February? We're talking about the February box office. Could it happen in February or could it happen and we're going to transition to talk about other Weekends in February not just the Super Bowl weekend, but there's definitely I feel anyways, there's opportunity, but you don't really know in advance All of the office some films are obvious they're gonna do well, but other times a film that's not so obvious does very very well You know, what about five nights at Freddy's? I remember, you know, just randomly off the top of my head five nights at Freddy's Whoever thought that that was it was opening, you know on streaming on the same day and it took off You know who would have predicted that and what do you think about the count? You know the idea that everyone tries to counter program To the Super Bowl, but again taken American Sniper which didn't open that weekend You know, well, there's a couple of examples on here of that exact thing. So taken if you remember Taken is an interesting one that everybody kind of points back to but taken At the time the u.s. Was the last market to open That was a movie that had been sitting on the shelf box was looking for something to do with it And they picked Super Bowl weekend. Everybody assumed it would be kind of a throwaway and If you could get a throwaway that does twenty four point seven million dollars. We take it all day long And then when you talk about the counter programming ones, you have a couple of those though Paul You have dear John you have Chronicle and then one that I worked on warm bodies and I can tell you the thought process about warm bodies if you remember the movie it's a it's a zombie love story and It really played to a female audience. And again, that was our thought our thought was this would be a great counter-programming We know that Sunday will get hurt. But at the same time we also think it won't get hurt as much maybe as you know a male action movie might do and There you have it. So, you know, I remember when dear John opened, you know, everybody, you know There are everybody's eyes were bugging out over the weekend again. It over performed all Expectations. So and Mike this past weekend heart eyes is sort of that kind of movie. It's a like a horror love story And a movie. Yeah, I mean and again not to the same level Necessarily that that is but it you know same idea as far as where we're gonna go So again, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy a little bit on that You can also see that, you know post pandemic the weekend has definitely Probably, you know, you know struggles probably a tough word, but it's had a lower Box office than it had prior to that and you know this weekend I mean, we'll be right around 54 million, which when you look at it outside of last year I mean that's right in line with the previous three Post pandemic Super Bowl weekends, but used to be that no one would open a summer movie in May But now summer movie is commonly open in May and do very very well Well now I mean That point that is, you know summer can start the last week of April in some cases, you know Avengers endgame April 26 You you mentioned Or that is you mentioned? Sometimes, you know assuming a weekend is not the weekend you open a movie I'll never forget the original saw when we had the movie We were trying to find when we should open the movie and John Bell timer the CEO Suggested we go on on Halloween weekend and we all looked at him and said Well, you can't go holiday or a Halloween weekend horror films don't open over Halloween weekend because you lose the Saturday because of Halloween parties and felt logic was Just because it hasn't been done before Doesn't mean you can't do it. Amen, and everybody else isn't doing something. I see that to be an opportunity and The man was a hundred percent, correct So to your bar be an Oppenheimer opening against each other Well again teacher what a strategic error that was right? Well, but but it probably was strategic where it's taking a period in the calendar and saying to yourself We can't open that movie that weekend because of whatever rules you put in place You know felts whole logic was what guys you're making the rules as you go along. There are no rules You know as I like there are no box-office police and Mike didn't you guys go Hunger Games on March 23 in 2012? That was another one where you know leading up to that You know here was the biggest movie that the company had ever had We looked at the release calendar up and down David Spitz actually gets full credit on that one as well I know we mentioned him with Lala and a couple weeks ago, but on Hunger Games It all just kept coming back to that that March period is being the perfect period to release that movie We had some you know, there was there were some spring breaks We did have a little bit of precedent Alice in Wonderland had gone out and did about a hundred and ten million dollars So it was like the box-office is there if you have the movie now No one thought we had a hundred and fifty four million dollar opener at all, but that ended up being You know opening up that corridor again and again what it really comes down to is if you have the content the people will come and That's kind of a perfect transition and maybe talking about what's coming up is presidents in Valentine's if we're ready to Switch gears or we can stay on Super Bowl. We could stay. No. No, no I think I think you know because over the course of my gosh the last 20 years or so I would say that President's Day weekend Valentine's Day weekend Which seemed to dovetail each other quite a bit has become one of the most lucrative Weekends on the calendar and if you look at the titles on there We'll show them for those who want to go to our YouTube video, which you should check out It's really interesting because you look at the you know, people don't think you know Deadpool Was not a summer movie at first It was like but out there is it you know, cuz they weren't sure what they had and isn't it true often studios are going A month that isn't that competitive like Guardians of the Galaxy went in August, right? People didn't know how it was gonna do. Well, I mean, you know, I'm not gonna cut you off Paul, but look at 2018 right look at what we have here. We are looking at a 346 million dollar weekend That is crazy when you think in in February makes summer look wimpy, I mean, that's For our audio listeners what happened in 2018? Oh, yeah good good good one Paul. You've got the list. What was the yeah Yeah, I'm just I'm gonna pull that up. So the top five movies, okay, and this is for this 16th through the 19th. So the four-day Presence weekend in 2018. Thank you Thaddeus because we can see it But those just listening can't and I appreciate that so Black Panther Which opened on the 16th? For the four days, but well for the three days did 202 million but for that four-day stretch that powered that 346 million actually this account this movie accounted for 70% of that weekend the four-day or yeah for the four-day period 242 point 1 million for Black Panther and Then Peter Rabbit at twenty three point four fifty shades breed Now not all these open on that weekend to be fair They were all holdovers, but Black Panther just blew the doors off on that weekend And and so that meant that Valentine's Day itself was on a Wednesday But they opened Black Panther on that day what an Incredible and I believe that wound up being the highest-grossing movie of 2018 That's like 4% of that's like 4% of the box office of the entire year happened in those four days on that one film Hey, let's give it a little perspective from last year The entire month of February I believe was about three hundred and thirty million dollars all in So you're saying four days of two? Great point move that away. In fact. I'm gonna look that up Mike. What did you say the entire month of I'm gonna go into the engine room? Yeah, the Entirety for I believe was about three hundred and thirty million dollars give or take let's see Oh, but remember and that had 29 days that we had an extra day in that Yeah, the thing about President's Day weekend as you look at some of these these weekend numbers are just gargantuan now There is no doubt. We will be far surpassing the last year's total last year 97.3 million bucks all-in led by the four days Days This year. I get out who knows where it's going to be, but I would think with Captain America brave new world pushing that You know anywhere from 80 90 million dollars for the four days. Maybe it gets more Paddington I hear is fantastic Paddington Peru, which has been breaking Paddington records in any market that it has Kids films have dominated in the last, you know, absolutely Pg-80 eight weeks and you know, I know we hate combining titles, but captain Paddington I mean, I just I like that captain This weekend Captain Paddington, baby. Paul. Did you figure out what last year was for February? Yeah for for the including the leap day or whatever 373 point I was 373. Okay, so no, I mean you're right on I mean a whole month basically you know Barely do I mean doing barely more than the than the president's weekend back in 2018 So pretty it can be an incredible weekend. I really think I mean even though the year is up Well percent or so over over last year at this point We really have not had that big Weekend and we're finally gonna get it. I feel like we're just getting like we've talked about we're just getting the motor warmed up We're just getting going and then this will be I think where we're really gonna see The numbers take off when you think about that. What could this weekend be up 70% versus the same, you know Presidents we are something like that president's weekend a year ago. I'm just doing the math in my head But um, you know, that's pretty amazing. We're gonna start seeing that year-to-date advantage Yeah, really start to increase. I mean as I think as I mentioned a couple weeks ago, you're gonna look, you know 2024 is gonna be you know quickly disappearing in the rearview mirror and 24 was an outlier in the sense of you know We had the strikes and the work stoppages the release counters We've talked about many times before on the show, but I think it's gonna be a really interesting weekend I hope companion make some noise out there, even though it opened a couple of weeks ago It's a very interesting movie and be an interesting choice And I do want to mention that that Bridget Jones I forget what this new one's called But the new Bridget Jones movie is not going into theaters in the US market and it is it's gonna be on Peacock Internationally in international in in the UK. It's gonna play big. It's kind of disappointing I understand perhaps why they decided not put it in theaters. I don't want to get too much into it I don't wanna second-guess the logic but for Valentine's it seems like it'd be a perfect movie for theaters this week for the Valentine's weekend Segway into we haven't prepared this question yet. So I'm gonna I'm gonna get you guys off the top of your head What's having a conversation with one of a production head last week and we were going over? What do we think the highest grossing film for 2025 will be and again? Last year if you would ask me this question I would have not income I would not have come close because I don't think we would have looked at either inside out or Deadpool and said Yeah, those are six hundred and fifty million dollar movies Knowing that the outlier is out there Given what you know, what would you think will be the highest? Wow here and we can edit in our I'm gonna half answer that question I think the weekend of Mission Impossible and Lilo and Stitch is gonna be the biggest weekend of the year Like I like it Because I think they're both very strong films I think that there's something about Mission Impossible that to me feels like you know This is just intuition It feels like it's ready for a comeback Because the last Mission Impossible didn't do as well for a lot of different reasons that were specific to the release date and everything And I think Tom Cruise, you know It's sort of this sort of patriotic personality that I think that people are ready for and then a kids film a major major Kids film I think can do well as counterprogramming. So those are great. Those are great. I'm going with Avatar fire and ash Well, remember though you only get two weeks of the year. I thought you meant lifetime for any movie lifetime I would agree with you probably on that but for the for the calendar Yeah, I mean that's Thaddeus makes a pretty strong case. I you know Superman for me I'm hoping it's so good and that it revives the whole Superman situation in DC And that it absolutely kicks ass and really takes off I don't know because I haven't seen it and we haven't seen it yet, but kind of going with that one and but it's you know, that's why they're called that's why they're called predictions because we just don't know and you're right Mike if we if you would ask me was inside out to gonna be the Highest grossing film released last year. I've been oh, no, maybe not. I wouldn't have thought of that one Answer my own question. I'm gonna use the same title. I used last year only part two and that would be wicked You know wicked sitting at 471 right now I think you know that's four hundred and fifty million dollars probably if not more for in the calendar and We will you know, that's the conservative bet I I wouldn't I would not be surprised if there was a movie that popped up that ended up doing, you know 500, you know five Mike it'll be a movie that as as the movie gods always do that, you know, none of us see at this point Well, I mean and then if you look at we're way getting ahead of ourselves But if you look at Thanksgiving, which was so amazing in 24, you know Wicked and then Zootopia and then Five Nights at Freddy's and an avatar fire and ash going towards the end of the year Man, that's pretty incredible. That's a hell of a fourth quarter. Yeah It is actually says something I think about the 2025 release calendars There's eight or ten films in the conversation and I think in 2024 you wouldn't say that You'd say there are four or five films in the conversation. Well, you know, you know and going back to 24 I remember Paul and I talking about some of these and you know, if you were at this point in and Again, you know, I think anyone who says differently is other than a Pixar animator, you know You probably had inside out maybe doing 150 175 Somewhere on there just given the track record what was going on in the animation space I remember we were looking at the summer and we were all going. Okay, there's three movies. There's Minions There's inside out and there's Deadpool and outside of that. It's gonna be it's gonna be tough sledding Well that ended up not being the case I had a journalist asked me he's doing an article about Jurassic world and is the bloom off the rose because that you know The three films made a little less the Jurassic world not not going back to the original Jurassic Park films All of them made over a billion worldwide. So I you know, it's hard to call that a thing like a negative But still they did diminish but I think it's still a brand you're not gonna bet against Jurassic at all I mean I I told the journalist not not a theater owner in the world would say I don't want that movie because the last one made Just over a billion instead of a billion and a half Again, you know you look, you know Like daddy has brought up Mission Impossible and the thing about the Mission Impossible movies and I did this a couple years ago You know those open to around 60 million bucks. That is what they have done historically That's pretty much the where they live I wouldn't be surprised at this one being kind of what's perceived to be the last one even though Tom is dead He would come back that I you know 60 million is kind of where you got to put it until it it does it, you know And when you look at the Jurassic movies, it's the same way, you know, they're around 300 million domestically total and until it's not That's that's what you pencil it in for, you know, Mike. I'm glad you brought it and Thaddeus I'm glad you brought up Mission Impossible does not Mission Impossible films not known for these They there's never been one that opened to a hundred million domestically in its opening weekend But they have great multiples Mission Impossible 1996 3.98 multiple Mission Impossible 2 2000 3.72 multiple of the opening weekend Mission Impossible 3 2.81 You go on they're all in the threes basically right around there's an average separate ghost protocol But that had a limited release and IMAX at first but in any event all great multiples meaning the audiences love them They play out. I think a lot of way to Internationally, they do exceptionally well outside the US and Canada too. Yeah. Yeah, so so much to look forward to I think we're gonna have so much to talk about Yeah on the podcast on the ticket to ride podcast Thaddeus Bouchard Mike Pauly Doris Paul to Garabedian and we just you know as a station note or whatever you want to call it up I forget what they call that But we're gonna have this available always on YouTube as well and wherever records and tapes are sold you can listen we're gonna just continue on and With more great content, we're gonna have special guests in the future. I'm just saying this now so we have to do it guys Yes. No, I mean we keep talking about these special guests. I think it's nice the booking agent out and get that taken care of Absolutely. No, this was a great one guys. I you know, I love that You know, this is what you get on ticket or I get a Super Bowl recap You get a look ahead to president's weekend and Valentine's Day. And again It's just we hope great listening for everyone and we should mention, you know that that there have been some interesting Valentine's movies that opened on Valentine's Day. Do you want to know what they are? What were they? Yeah. Well, I have to go look them up But no, I know Silence of the Lambs is one of them Nothing says Valentine's Day like Silence of the Lambs That that is back to what Thaddeus was talking about and again when you're releasing movies don't put yourself in a box is what it comes down to and just because It doesn't feel like it's the right time doesn't mean it's not the right time to open it And again, we've talked about it over and over again and you know The the release calendar is a giant jigsaw puzzle and you're looking when when you're you're figuring out where you want to put your movie You're looking where do I have the best possible chance for success? And you know, do I have a horror movie that I'm putting up against an animated movie? Do I have an action movie? I'm putting up against you know, a family drama or something like that. Like you're looking for those counter programming opportunities You're looking for you know, has it been three months since there's been a horror film in the marketplace? Should I put something there? We saw that in such a big way last year with the animated movies Remember we went all the way from Minions to I believe it was Wild Robot We did not have an animated movie and Wild Robot opened up opened up to about 30 I believe it was somewhere in there and that movie just cranked it out and just kept playing playing and playing There's a type for that and these rules that you know when they're broken actually can bear a lot of fruit Oh the other one Wayne's World opened February 14 1992 so Wayne's World and great Valentine's movie and Science of the Lambs and I they must have purposefully done this because February 14 When Science of the Lambs open was on a Thursday So Definitely looking for that, you know, yeah, they were they were picking that date on purpose. So guys one movie I wanted to give kudos to from the last weekend that opened up did a hell of a job to was Becoming Led Zeppelin and we talked about that one. Yeah ago movie went out did over 7,500 bucks a screen in 369 locations to point all IMAX, right all IMAX this week Next week they are Expanding the footprint into a more traditional theaters But you know, you're talking about the last studio album for Led Zeppelin released in 1979 so what are we looking at 45 years? You know and they are as relevant as ever. That's a me Mike. I like that. You become a major Zeppelin fan I don't know that you were I mean, I know you are now by the way anyone who knows me knows I'm not but I can appreciate the you know the craft and What they've what they've contributed to music and music history speaking Which is this the part of the podcast where we turn on the black lights? Only saw I finally saw Paul's one of his favorite movies from last year and that was a complete unknown and wow What a great move and again, you'd love it Mike Yeah, what so this just tells you what a great actor Timothee Chalamet is because last year He was playing the whimsical Willy Wonka who you know, everything was rose-colored this year. He's playing the dark and brooding Bob Dylan Yeah, and the range he was absolutely fantastic in both not to mention his character in doing as well. So Wait, what do you got there Paul show-and-tell show-and-tell I like it. He's got something. What do we got cool? It's on red vinyl Wow so, uh, I guess with that we should be like a rolling stone and Good one. By the way, I'm gonna leave you with this guys Next big music documentary is becoming the monkeys. Okay That would be such a Fascinating, you know, that would be a great doc. I look I got I have to get our costume department on that's for the next Well, there's there's so many stories about some of those songs on but that's for another day. Yeah. All right guys. Thank you Thanks for listening everyone ticket to ride season 2 In the in the hopper Thanks guys You don't care