China's Military: drills reveal major problems & Getting harder to get out of the first island chain

on April 9th 2023 China's people's Liberation Army's Eastern theater Command put out a short animation of simulated attacks on Taiwan on its WeChat account the animation shows missiles fired from land sea and air into the Island's territory with two of them exploding in Flames as they hit their targets it looks very impressive right but this drill has actually exposed many of the pla's weaknesses in this episode we will explore the first island chain that has almost completely blocked off the PLA and the recent visits to the U.S by the presidents of South Korea in the Philippines in early April Taiwanese president saying when met with the speaker of the U.S House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy in Los Angeles after that from April 7th to 9th the pla's aircraft carrier Shandong conducted its first ocean-going training and participated in the so-called around Taiwan Island Tactical Patrol and Joint sharp sword exercise the Shandong carrier is the second and largest aircraft carrier in active service of the Chinese Navy during the three days of the military exercise shandong's carrier-based aircraft and j-15 fighter jets took off and landed about 80 sortes and helicopters took off and landed about 40 sortes that is to say fighter jets take off and land about 26 to 27 times a day on average the standard for the U.S nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier is to dispatch 120 sortes of carrier-based aircraft in 12 hours and it can still continue to fight at night the number of sortes designed by the Ford class aircraft carrier has Inc increase by 20 percent official Chinese videos show that the pla's j15 carries only two medium-range air-to-air missiles and two short-range air-to-air missiles and has no airstrike capability information from taiwan's Ministry of National Defense shows that 1j15 entered taiwan's Eastern air defense identification Zone and returned immediately the Shandong aircraft carrier remained 400 kilometers east of Taiwan to avoid taiwan's land-based xiangfang 3 anti-ship missiles which have a maximum range of 400 kilometers the ccp's j-15 took off from the ski jump Deck with limited Fuel and carrying only air to air missiles it isn't clear the purpose of such a move was it going to engage in air combat with taiwan's f-16s carrier-based aircraft should try to avoid air combat with land-based Fighters unless they have an absolute Advantage after all its number is limited and if too many of them are destroyed the aircraft carrier would lose its combat power the main task of the carrier-based aircraft is air strikes in addition to Fleet defense it now appears that the plas carrier-based aircraft can only be used for air combat why didn't the pla test fire missiles this time it's likely related to what happened in August 2022 at that time in retaliation against U.S Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan the CCP conducted military exercises and fired 11 missiles five of which landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone at the time there was much speculation about whether the pla's action against Japan was intentional or an accidental mistake now it seems that the Chinese missiles aren't all that accurate learning its lesson from last year's drill the pla stopped test firing missiles for fear of hitting their own carrier in battleships it is common sense that when attacking Taiwan the Navy would be deployed in advance so that after the missile attack they could immediately engage in the fight for sea control however if the missiles fired aren't accurate to avoid wrongful attacks and hurt its own the ccp's Navy would not dare to move in position prior and would have to wait until the missile attack is done before taking its place at its deployment location and then the CCP forces would be unable to launch a surprise attack and the Taiwanese forces could use this Gap to make a counter-attack a senior researcher at the center for international assessment and strategy a U.S Think Tank was puzzled by the fleet of the Shandong carrier passing through the Southeastern Waters of Taiwan because since Southeastern Taiwan is the deepest part of the Pacific Ocean it would be suicidal to send the carrier in its 1500 officers and men to this area as it's an ideal area for U.S nuclear attack submarines to operate he said if this carrier takes any offensive action against the people of Taiwan it will quickly sink to the Bottom of the Sea this is a reckless move why did the fleet of the Shandong carrier appear in taiwan's Southeastern Waters rather than the Western Waters the latter is what the military Community believes to be the real focus of the Communist attack on Taiwan the three days of military exercises around Taiwan were soon over and it's possible that the CCP tried to cover up its real war plan of attacking Taiwan and avoiding revealing more vulnerabilities to the outside world this exercise highlighted the enormous vulnerability of the Chinese Navy in the past 20 years the CCP has blindly built an ocean-going Navy taking a major detour the liaonin carrier entered service in 2012. it was seen as a major sign of the CCP navies going to the ocean it's the second ship of the kazanet subclass aircraft carrier of the former Soviet Union it wasn't designed for ocean-going operation though therefore can't compete with the U.S carrier in 2019 the enlarged version of the kuznetsov class aircraft carrier number three was delivered in Hainan China that is the Shandong carrier after the Shandong carrier the ccp's efforts to imitate the former Soviet aircraft carrier came to an abrupt end it switched to imitate the American Carrier launched in 2022 the fujian carrier abandoned the sliding jump deck in favor of a flat deck like the U.S carriers it claimed to be equipped with the most advanced electromagnetic catapult but is still powered by conventional fuel on April 11th Xi Jinping inspected the naval forces in the southern War Zone in Zhang Jiang Guangdong he emphasized accelerating the transformation and construction and comprehensively improving the modernization level of the forces he was probably speaking from the heart and at the same time revealed the real Combat capability of his Navy China's new destroyers also mainly imitate the US military but the performance and quality are likely to be greatly reduced and frequent repairs should not be uncommon during the pla military exercises a Taiwan legislator announced that he had received an information about an interesting encounter due to bad weather in the upcoming joint military exercises between the U.S and the Philippines on April 11th the CCP Navy was in a hurry to finish its job quickly its joshon vessel contacted the nearby Taiwanese Naval Patrol ship that was monitoring them via radio telling it please come closer so that they could take some pictures as part of the report they had to submit the legislator wrote we couldn't help but laugh at this news maybe the CCP ships are newer and bigger but the training and quality of the Taiwanese military are much better than the pla Taiwan President saying when on April 14th thanked fighter pilots who scrambled against China's air force during its drills around the island and pledged to keep strengthening the Armed Forces as beijing's military activities around the island ebbed in the past few years in order to enhance the combat power of the national army or IDF a slash B the fighter jets of the third tactical Fighter Wing have been upgraded to C D aircraft strengthening the mission capabilities of air control and air defense operations in the future we will continue to upgrade our Air Force's software and Hardware facilities and strengthen Personnel training I want to tell everyone as long as we are united we can reassure our fellow countrymen and let the world see our determination to protect our country compared to the ccp's corrupt military taiwan's military is a professional Force as Taiwan is under constant pressure from the CCP it has placed great emphasis on National Defense Education with military instructors stationed at every high school and University and bookstores displaying a variety of military literature taiwan's defense plans are geared towards the worst case scenario a full-scale Invasion by the CCP since 1949 Taiwan has seen the ccp's military amphibious Landing as its greatest threat assuming a one million man Invasion by Chinese troops and militia Taiwan has become so accustomed to alerts that it can mobilize 300 000 reservists within 24 hours the biggest problem for the CCP is that Taiwan won't be fighting alone the Chinese Navy is blocked by the long chain of the first island as long as the U.S and other nations work together to seal off key Straits there is no way for the Chinese Navy to move beyond the first island chain and Reese recently the first island chain has become more tightly blocked than ever before in history the Taiwan Strait is the lifeline of Japanese shipping ninety percent of oil 99 of minerals and 100 of nuclear fuel passes near the Taiwan Strait also eighty percent of container ships go directly through the Taiwan Strait and every 10 minutes a Japanese ship passes through the Taiwan Strait area these Waters directly affect the survival of Japan in 2015 Japan amended its constitution in the case of a threat to the survival of Japan even if the country isn't under attack it can directly dispatch the self-defense forces the Japanese military admits that any military action in the Taiwan Strait will automatically attract Japan's attention believing that if Taiwan is captured Japan's outer Islands will be the next Target Japan has stepped up its military presence and is in talks with Taiwan to provide assistance in the event of an attack on Taiwan in addition to Japan India has long been a member of the quadrilateral mechanism and is a key Link in containing the CCP on April 18 2023 the U.S India Air Force conducted a joint exercise the U.S b-1b strategic bomber in the f-15e fighter jets appeared for the first time near the sino-indian border area India is taking over the American supply chain transferred from China on a large scale and the relationship between the U.S and India is bound to become closer the indo-pacific alliance of the U.S Japan India and Australia is known as the NATO of the indo-pacific for a long time some key Regional allies most notably South Korea and the Philippines wouldn't join this military Alliance that clearly confronts the CCP due to a variety of complex political economic and diplomatic ties with the CCP but now there is a major change in this situation on April 26 amid the growing threat of North Korea's nuclear missiles South Korea and the U.S signed a landmark agreement in which the U.S pledged to share more details of its nuclear program with South Korea and the U.S nuclear ballistic missile submarines would make regular calls to South Korea on April 27th Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder said that an Ohio class ballistic missile submarine was going to visit South Korea the move represents the entry of a powerful Nuclear Strike Force into a geographic location that can cover almost the entire territory of China and Russia simultaneously although this can be interpreted as an extended U.S deterrent to North Korea both the CCP and Russia would also be truly deterred by this why has South Korea rekindled its interest in nuclear weapons since 2017 North Korea has developed nuclear weapons that could strike the US raising concerns in South Korea about whether it would have the full support of the U.S in the event of a full-scale conflict with North Korea on April 24th the South Korean president made an official visit to the White House and one of the goals of the trip was to secure the deployment of U.S nuclear weapons to South Korea ultimately the White House chose the less risky option of committing strategic nuclear submarines to dock in South Korea today we discussed our work together on promoting piece of stability in the Taiwan Straits and ensuring freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and Beyond the political and operational risks of doing so are minimal and the actual threat to the CCP is greatest if the U.S were to deploy nuclear weapons in South Korea they would most likely be nuclear bombs or missiles carried by warplanes and possibly land-based missiles neither of which would be as powerful as Trident missiles launched by submarines nor as fast to operate as submarines a U.S ohio-class submarine will now be ready to stand by and if it were in the waters around South Korea it would not only be closer to North Korea but also closer to Beijing it's able to hit its Target in a matter of minutes 24 Trident missiles would be launched at close range without the need to reduce the load to increase the range and each missile would carry 12 nuclear warheads a feat unmatched by land-based and air-based nuclear weapons the CCP encouraged North Korea to make trouble but didn't anticipate that the end result would be to bring the most powerful nuclear submarine in the U.S military to its doorstep the South Korean president was treated with courtesy during his trip to Washington DC this is a high point in the warming of relations between the two countries after the troan relations between South Korea and the U.S under its former president Moon jae-in Yoon sakyol said as the Japanese did this year we tell the CCP clearly that it's unacceptable to force taiwan's reunification by violence this marks the return of two major alliances one in which South Korea and the U.S agree to provide an extended nuclear deterrent in the other in which South Korea may no longer put the Taiwan issue on the back burner so please join me to our partnership to our people to possibilities into the future of the Republic of Korea and the United States will create together may we do it together for another 170 years the alliance will not only ensure the security and prosperity of both countries but also contribute to the peace and Security in the indo-pacific end of the world and those of you joining us here today are the main drivers for building such an alliance there's an old saying and Mr President this one is also Irish that goes a good friend is like a four-leaf clover hard to find and lucky to have foreign to our Ironclad Elias before yunsa girl South Korea had avoided talking about Taiwan because of its extensive trade ties with China now apparently this is no longer the case on April 30th Yoon concluded his Six-Day visit to Washington DC he was followed by the Philippine president on May 1st Marcos Jr was the first Philippine president to visit the White House in the last decade or so and so it is only natural the the for the Philippines to look to its uh Soul treaty partner in the world to strengthen and to redefine the relationship that we have and the roles that we play in the face of those Rising tensions that we see now around the South China Sea and Asia Pacific and in the Pacific region the reason why the Philippines is so important is that among the five U.S treaty allies in the indo-pacific region the Philippines is the closest to Taiwan its northernmost island of Luzon is even closer previously from April 11 to 28th the U.S and the Philippines held the 30-23 side-by-side orbelikatan military exercise it was unprecedented in this exercise the U.S Philippines Joint Force successfully connected a kill chain and sank a target with live ammunition Marcos came to observe in person in multinational joint operations achieving such operational effects is very challenging what we what we can say is that the reason we are doing an exercise at this magnitude is because we are exercising or demonstrating our ability to be interoperable with our U.S counterpart which is also our treaty Ally you should be able to do to be to demonstrate this at the operational level of War which means that uh planning up to execution we have to prove that we can do this together going back on April 3rd Manila and Washington agreed to resume joint Patrols in the South China Sea and at the same time reached an agreement to allow the U.S military to enter four military bases in the Philippines this has nearly doubled the number of military bases opened to the U.S military in the Philippines that has been stipulated in the U.S Philippines defense agreement that is the number of bases has now increased from four to nine among the four new bases announced by the Philippines the Santa Ana Naval base is only about 400 kilometers away from Taiwan after current president Marcos Jr came to power last June the Philippines changed its soft attitude towards Beijing sino-philippine relations have become increasingly tense in the past two years China has claimed almost the entire South China Sea and has taken increasingly aggressive actions okay the Philippines has launched more than 200 diplomatic protests against China since last year including at least 77 since Marcos took office in June most of the complaints concerned China's aggressive behavior in the South China Sea when the Philippines announced the latest four bases for use by the U.S military the move annoyed the CCP on April 14th the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines criticized the decision of the Philippines he said that if the Philippines is really worried about the safety of the 150 000 workers in Taiwan it should take a more unequivocal stand against taiwan's Independence instead of opening military bases adjacent to the Taiwan Straits of the U.S this will only add fuel to the Flames this remark sparked a strong backlash in the Philippines further deteriorating the already tense sino-philippine relations the message of this action is really to call for the recalling of their Ambassador Huang because of the problematic statements that he had issued which had the effect of threatening or issuing a warning to the thousands of OFW is currently deployed in Taiwan foreign on April 22nd the Chinese foreign minister made an emergency visit to the Philippines but failed to undo a series of past missteps by Chinese Communist leaders towards the Philippines the Philippines has officially picked aside President Biden has made clear our commitment to the defense of the Philippines is our employment and let me say once again that our mutual defense treaty applies to Armed attacks on our Armed Forces Coast Guard vessels public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific including anywhere in the South China Sea so make no mistake Mr President we will always have your back and South China Sea or elsewhere in the region [Music] thank you [Music]