ההסכם בין הכורדים למשטר הסורי החדש - פרשנות

Kurdish-backed forces have signed a deal with the Syrian government also. Joining us now to discuss is Middle East Affairs Analyst David Wormser. Middle East dynamics are notoriously complex. So to start, is there anything you want to add to the snapshot that we just provided? No, I just say there's rumors this morning that there may also be a similar deal with the Druze who are in the south of Syria right next to Israel, which would be more interesting also because the Druze are under, the Israelis have extended their protective umbrella to them. What you have right now is there's a lot of forces in Syria that are preparing for future conflict, but right now we're not ready. And as a result, you're seeing these deals being made. But I would caution that in the long run, these deals are going to be very rickety, if not unworkable, simply because the underlying interests are incompatible. The administration of the regime in Damascus only represents about 40 percent of the country, Sunni Arabs, and they're more Islamists. The Kurds have a bad history with Islamists, the Druze as well, and the Christians obviously have had a problem. And now you saw over the last few days the Alawites. So everybody is sort of gathering to figure out the long term. You have around it the strategic threat of Turkey's intervention. The United States is pulling its troops out and the Israelis are extending a security umbrella. So there's a lot of maneuvering going on for the long run, which will then probably involve some sort of radical change in the circumstance there. Yeah. Talk to me more about the U.S.'s approach because we do know, for example, that last year the U.S. gave Syria about $186 million to help counter ISIS terrorists. And for about a decade they have partnered with Kurdish forces on that front in defending against ISIS. But President Trump hasn't laid out any, hasn't really confirmed that the U.S. would continue that support this year. What are you seeing in terms of the U.S.'s approach? Yeah, I think actually the United States is probably pressuring the Kurds to a venture disagreement precisely because they think the president does eventually intend to remove the troops from that area, which were protecting the Kurds. In that case, how do you anticipate the U.S. responding with their new posture of trying to pull out and not be as involved, and yet you're forecasting more conflict? Well, it may be that the United States returns with assistance and perhaps air power. The Israelis definitely might help out as well, the Kurds, and start becoming a supply chain for them and so forth. But I doubt that the United States will be back in on the ground for the Kurds in northeast Syria in the next year or two or three. I think the biggest developments right now are the Christians and the Druze in Lebanon and Syria, because both of them seem to be indicating they want to come under some sort of an Israeli protective umbrella, and they're navigating between the government of Syria, which they know ultimately is hostile, and Israel, which they know is friendly, but they need to know they can count on it. So I would watch those two communities and see what emerges. And that will drive whether Syria will remain a nation or whether Syria will break down into several smaller nations that are more aligned with ethnic realities. Thank you.