Bad News For Boeing 777X

Same story, different airline. Cathay Pacific, a customer that is expecting the upcoming 777X, which will be delivered to help renew its fleet and grow long into future decades, is now forecasting fresh delays for its acquisition for the program. Based on Boeing's most recent guidance on the certification process, you may recall that the Hong Kong-based carrier was expected to take delivery of its first 777X in 2026. However, alarm bells began ringing program-wide when Emirates confirmed that it didn't expect to take delivery of the 777X themselves until the midway point of 2027. This was deemed a best-case scenario, with it worse, well, first delivery being pushed into 2028. At that point, Emirates was the first airline to really unveil further skepticism over the delivery timeframe. This also off the back of data recently provided by Boeing for their upcoming jet, confirming that they would look towards a 2026 first delivery, which would be the more likely launch timeframe after being forced to abandon 2025 efforts due to complications in certification and the realization that time was running out on that 2025 date, it became too unrealistic to continue pushing forward with. When publishing its own 2024 annual results, Cathay Pacific confirmed the move in a fleet profile table that the delivery of the 777-9 jet, the only variant in the series it is committed to, is scheduled for 2027 and beyond. This fresh timeline therefore abandons hope of a delivery next year. It also leaves the door firmly ajar for the aircraft to not even launch in the airline's operations by 2027, representing yet another turn of events that has become all too familiar for airlines right across our industry. The arrival of this 777-X I speak of for Cathay Pacific has long been considered as essential for fleet renewal efforts. The company is looking towards rebuilding itself as a business, following what was a very turbulent first half of the decade driven by the global pandemic, but it doesn't stop just there. Even towards the latter stages of the 2010s, it was experiencing political struggles that it's still trying to overcome. However, because of your ongoing certification woes and more, Cathay Pacific is really unable to see the delivery of 777-X planes on time. With so much uncertainty over when the jet will be delivered, fleet retirements, growth and renewal are all then knock-on factors that become more complex than first imagined. What's really happening to the 777-X? Well, if you're new to the industry, welcome. But second of all, the plane was initially meant to launch in 2020, but it's had a pretty turbulent last six to seven years, with problem after problem impacting its ability to begin scheduled passenger services. From concerns surrounding the powerful and also sizable GE9X to really internal complications, the company has struggled to get the new aircraft to market and this is now impacting your airlines. The affected companies must rethink what year-long or more delays to first delivery will look like, given the realization that for most, the 777-X will not enter passenger service until 2027. This would be after crew familiarization was to occur in a best-case scenario permitting no further pushback. If the first entry into service would occur in 2027, this would also represent a seven-year delay for this wide-body aircraft. And sure, aircraft delivery delays are pretty common nowadays in our industry and it's normal for a new aircraft program to experience delays. Nothing is ever going to be smooth sailing. Whether we are in a supply chain crisis or not, look back to the 2000s and even before then, A380s were all involved in delays. But seven years is excessive, certainly when you actually analyze and get to the deep-rooted reason behind the delays, it becomes even more challenging for airlines involved. Let me know your take on Cathay Pacific essentially pushing back its expectations regarding delivery. Is 2027 an attainable time frame or are you in the camp where it could be even longer? Thanks for watching, take care, do be safe, and I'll see you tomorrow for your next industry recap.