NASA Unexpected Plan on Boeing Starliner! SpaceX Dragon to Replace...

you know there's something that's been on my mind will Starlininer ever fly again and it's not just me that's been the burning question for months following the spacecraft's highly disappointing return after a long period of silence NASA has finally released an update along with new plans for Starlininer but what exactly does this plan entail is it truly good news for the troubled spacecraft and how do these developments compare to Dragon let's find out in today's episode of Great SpaceX it's been more than 6 months since Starlininer's crew flight test one returned from the ISS without a crew on board since then aside from vague statements from NASA and Boeing silence has largely surrounded the vehicle's future given the issues encountered during the mission there seemed to be little justification for Starlininer to fly again however despite its shortcomings NASA has decided to give Boeing and Starlininer another chance during a press conference following Crew 9's return Steve Stitch NASA's commercial crew program manager shared the AY's intentions what we'd like to do is that one flight and then get into a crew rotation flight so the next flight up would really test all the changes we're making to the vehicle and then the next flight beyond that we really need to get Boeing into a crew rotation so that's the strategy he went on to address the key technical challenges that need to be resolved before Starlininer can be certified for operational missions the thing that we need to solidify and go test is the prop system in the service module we need to make sure we can eliminate the helium leaks eliminate the service module thruster issues that we had on docking even if we were able to fly the vehicle without a crew in the return we want that to be crew capable so we wanted to have all the systems in place that we could fly a crew with in addition to NASA's commitment Stitch emphasized Boeing's continued support for the program stating "Being all the way up to their new CEO Kelly Ortberg has been committed to Starlininer i see a commitment from Boeing to continue the program they realized that they have an important vehicle and we were very close to having the capability that we would like to field nasa also reiterated its ongoing efforts in a recent announcement on X stating NASA and Boeing space are making progress toward crew certification of the company's CST 100 Starlininer system following the crew flight test to space station joint teams are working to resolve Starlininers inflight anomalies and preparing for propulsion system testing in the months ahead as NASA plans for Starlininer's next flight this confirms that another test mission similar to CFT1 will be required before certification can be granted given the outcome of the previous flight this additional test is a necessary step to validate the vehicle's performance and ensure it meets NASA's safety standards the announcement was further supported by an update on NASA's official page where Ken Bowersox NASA's associate administrator for space operations emphasized the importance of Starlininer in NASA's broader strategy nasa's strategy for crew transportation is critical for ensuring access to space using American private industry our investment in commercial crew transportation capabilities is providing the needed flexibility to operate in space as safely as possible and respond to changes quickly as they arise nasa is seeing the commitment from Boeing to adding the Starlininer system to the nation's crew transportation base with this renewed effort Boeing and NASA are working to overcome Starlininer's previous setbacks however whether this next test flight will truly prove the spacecraft's reliability remains to be seen to support its decision NASA highlighted the significant progress made since Starlininer's crew flight test one returned according to the agency NASA and Boeing have worked extensively to resolve issues with over 70% of flight observations and in-flight anomalies already closed at program level control boards meanwhile Starlininer's analysis will continue throughout the year both teams will proceed with additional testing and data collection from ground tests and system upgrades these tests are scheduled to take place during the spring and summer at the White Sands test facility in New Mexico the focus will include evaluations of the propulsion system enhancements to the thermal protection system and potential solutions for future missions some proposed upgrades include adding a thermal barrier to the doghouse area to regulate temperature modifying thruster pulse profiles to prevent overheating and addressing helium leaks a key issue observed during CFT1 after these preparations the biggest question remains when will Starlininer fly again steve Stitch provided an estimate in NASA's latest update stating "Once we get through these planned test campaigns we will have a better idea of when we can go fly the next Boeing flight we'll continue to work through certification toward the end of this year and then go figure out where Starlininer fits best in the schedule for the International Space Station and its crew and cargo missions it is likely to be in the time frame of late this calendar year or early next year for the next Starlininer flight this means Starlininer's next mission is tenatively planned for late this year or early next year what remains unclear is whether this next flight will be a cargo mission or a crude mission if it's a cargo flight it'll mark Starlininer's fourth mission to date however if it's a crude mission it'll introduce significant scheduling considerations for NASA and other ISS partners spacex for example would need to coordinate its Crew 12 mission to avoid overlapping with Starlininer's flight yet the real question is if this is a crude mission who would be willing to sit aboard Starlininer given its troubled history it's difficult to understand why NASA continues to place trust in the vehicle especially when safety is paramount in human space flight all of these efforts ultimately serve a single purpose to integrate Starlininer into regular crew rotation missions starting with Starlininer 1 similar to SpaceX's Dragon missions Starlininer 1 is intended to be a six-month mission supporting long duration astronaut stays aboard the ISS nasa reiterated this goal in a recent update stating mission managers are planning for the next Starlininer flight to be a crew capable postcertification mission and NASA also has the capability of flying only cargo depending on the needs of the agency steve Stitch's remarks have consistently emphasized getting Starlininer into stable operation as soon as possible to support ISS resupply and crew transport however while this plan is clear the reality of achieving it remains uncertain after Starlininer CFT1 returned last September Starlininer 1 was initially projected for launch in the second half of 2025 but with the upcoming test mission now delayed to late 2025 or early 2026 Starlininer 1 will likely be pushed back to mid or late 2026 at the earliest this estimate is further supported by the fact that some astronauts originally assigned to Starlininer 1 have since been reassigned to crew 11 and this timeline assumes the next test mission is successful if further failures occur delays could stretch even longer if this happens Boeing may be unable to fulfill its original NASA contract which required six operational missions given that the ISS is expected to retire by 2030 launching the first mission in 2026 would leave only four years to complete the remaining five that would require Boeing to fly Starlininer twice in a single year an ambitious and highly unlikely scenario given the spacecraft's current challenges beyond the technical setbacks one of the biggest limitations preventing Starlininer from launching on schedule is Boeing's lack of capsules the Calypso capsule which flew the problematic CFT-1 mission requires extensive refurbishments boeing's only other capsule was used for the successful cargo mission back in 2022 if the upcoming test mission uses this second prototype Boeing would need to wait for Calypso's repairs before flying Starlininer 1 if Calypso is found to be too damaged to refurbish Boeing will have to wait for a new vehicle to be built further extending delays a possible solution could be for NASA to reduce Starlininer's contract from six to three missions this would better align with the spacecraft's capabilities and the remaining operational lifespan of the ISS however such a decision would be a major embarrassment for both NASA and Boeing keep in mind NASA originally awarded Boeing a staggering $4.5 billion US for the commercial crew program contract nearly double the amount that SpaceX received for Dragon yet the contrast between the two programs is stark dragon has already launched 10 official crude missions plus a demonstration mission reestablishing NASA's independence in terms of access to the ISS and ensuring continuous operations dragon's most recent contribution was bringing home the two Starlininer astronauts from Crew 9 after Boeing's vehicle proved unreliable in addition to crude flights Dragon has also supported more than 30 cargo resupply missions and is expected to play a role in the ISSD orbit plan by comparison Starlininer has managed only one successful uncrrewed cargo mission in 2022 its first crude test flight in 2024 was plagued with failures forcing the assigned astronauts to return on SpaceX's Crew Dragon instead as Boeing continues to investigate and address Starlininer's issues it'll also face mounting financial challenges the company has been hemorrhaging money on Starlininer for over a decade in 2024 alone Boeing reported a staggering $523 million loss on the program bringing its total losses to over $2 billion with further delays and additional test flights ahead these losses are likely to keep growing posing a serious financial strain on the aerospace giant at this point Boeing's commitment to Starlininer appears to be less about innovation and more about damage control whether NASA will continue to stand by the troubled spacecraft or gradually shift more responsibilities to SpaceX remains to be seen a challenging road lies ahead for Boeing and Starlininer even with continued support from NASA the company's future in crude space flight will hinge on its ability to resolve these persistent issues and successfully execute upcoming missions meanwhile SpaceX's Dragon remains NASA's most dependable spacecraft consistently stepping in when Starlininer falls short given this track record NASA may need to seriously consider backup plans that rely on Dragon if Starlininer once again fails to deliver this has been Kevin with Great SpaceX don't forget to like the video and subscribe if you haven't already to stay uptodate with yours truly in the latest details of SpaceX's progress thank you so much for tuning in and remember curiosity imagination and inspiration will always follow you as long as you keep looking up