Ocean City New Jersey (OCNJ) Real Estate Market Update - April 2025

After the first half of March looking like it was setting a not record pace but as of the last few years a record pace it ended just the same. It was a very busy month in many ways. Let's get into it right now. Now it looks like Zoom has updated how we can share these presentations so bear with me if there are any glitches we'll get it worked out going forward. But the short version mortgage rates are down compared to where we started the month and potentially are going to continue to trend that way but we're in a very volatile time so I don't want to make that claim just yet. But inventory ended up just two percent from where we started which is pretty common. It's not uncommon the month of March where we have a lot of new listings but we also typically have a lot going under contract. Last year was a little bit different because we did not have either of those facets but this year we're back to normal on that front. Now looking at where we are we're at 248 compared to where we ended at 235 just a week later. So we'll see if we see an April run-up. Depends if the new listings continue at the same pace and demand takes a step back. But the two big things that happened this month is we had the most new listings that we've had since March of 2022. We've also had the most homes go under contract since we had in March of 2022. Prices are continuing upwards and I don't have full complete stats yet because we are waiting up the 36 homes that were supposed to close in March. We're still waiting for nine to be officially closed out in the MLS and once that happens we get the real numbers, the real prices that things closed at. So I didn't want to put these ratios in because they are absolutely going to change and they could change markedly given 36 is not the biggest sample size. But we are up compared to where we were last month in inventory as I mentioned but we're down compared to where we were last year. And mortgage rates all things considered haven't changed a whole lot compared to last month as well as to the previous year. Now new listings went like I said way up compared to where we have seen over the past few years the most since we've had the most that we've had since March of 2022. Now back in that year we did see a small fall off in April before things came back down to earth in May. We'll see if that trend continues. And again the most pending sales since that same time period which again these bars jump off the chart both then and now is an anomaly. Only time will tell. So far in April it looks like we have eight or nine that are under contract so far. We keep that pace we're going to go back to where we've been over the past several years versus seeing you know another crazy month. And again that's what happened back in 2022 as well. So outside of that closed sales you know pretty reasonably normal month for March. Months of inventory this is where we start to differ a little bit. What we saw both last year and in prior marches for the most part is where the months of inventory started to increase. But we actually had 20 homes go under contract 20 single family homes go under contract. It's a bigger portion bigger percentage of our total homes that went under contract population than we typically see. So there's still a lot of demand for these single family homes. There's a lot of demand for higher priced homes. So again maybe people don't have the budgets they used to they've realized they really want to make the move now or maybe the buyer population we have now simply has higher budget and higher tolerance to buy these things. Median sale price for these single family homes still very consistent but still way up over last year and days on market up again but nowhere near really where we were pre-COVID. Now condos same story as it's been the last several months last few years actually pretty consistent between four and five months of inventory. It's very balanced market but does lean towards the sellers. There's still you have a very nice home in a great location. Those are getting scooped up very quickly as long as they're priced reasonably. Those sale prices reflect that right continuing that trend upwards whereas what we saw with single families right we we are up compared to last year but we did see pretty solid plateau there. Days on market again still lower than we were pre-COVID. Now we had a fast month that was to be expected. Given the amount of new listings that we had the thing that I was curious to see is if demand would keep up or are we actually going to see inventory rise. Was it going to be this tipping point in the market and lo and behold demand was there and was ready to scoop up all those new homes. So that really has put a damper on our rising speed as we again had a pretty fast month as far as new listings compared to what goes on the contract. Now where we're going. I'm not necessarily going to read much from here. We're in a very volatile time right now with tariffs being put into place, changing of things all around the world. Who knows right I can't sit here and tell you what I think is going to happen. There's not a ton of data out there to go off of but I do have a book reserved at the library by Ray Dalio. Big name investor if you haven't heard of him I would highly recommend looking into some of what he's been predicting for the last couple years. But he's basically he studies history and believes that there is a possibility and there is a way to predict what may be coming. So I have that book on hold. I'm going to go pick it up, read it, see what I can learn and see if that helps me to get an understanding of exactly what's coming because right now things are all over the map. But mortgage rate wise we had he had a Blackrock I think is his last name I'm blanking on the first name. Said he could see interest rates going back up. China selling U.S. treasuries. It's taking that 10 year curve that I've been talking about the 10 year treasury yield which was on a free fall actually took a swing back up as China decided to unload 50 billion dollars in treasuries to sell them. Part of this whole trade war you want to call it that that's going on. There's a lot of facets and it's going to change things in a hurry. So what's going to happen over the next few months is really anybody's guess. We are I would say about a month away from the spring market really coming to a close here. That's about the time we have to make sure people get in by Memorial Day weekend which is always the goal for people buying. Now one thing I thought was interesting from an inventory standpoint and not the growth necessarily but the percentage of three plus bedroom units compared to what we've seen in the past. So typically in 2024 anyway we had 67 percent of all condos that went under contract had at least three bedrooms. But if we want to compare apples to apples if we just look at March of 2024 we had 64 percent had three plus bedrooms. But what we saw last month March 2025 was 84 percent that went under contract had at least three bedrooms. So one of two ways to look at that we are either saying demand is shifting away from the efficiencies one and two bedroom units and if that happens right you would think that the overall homes going under contract maybe they stay about the same. Or we can say that people in that price range that have a limited budget are simply not buying at the same pace that they used to. And I'm inclined to think it's more of that latter really aren't seeing a ton of demand in that in that bucket. For example we have a great listing in the Flanders in my opinion and yes I am biased here it's the best one that is currently for sale in the building based on location and now especially based on price because we just reduced the price down to $335,000 to one bedroom one bath. That is about the price that these were going for back towards the end of 2023. The activity has not been there on the units for sale so time will tell what happens. I think that one is a good deal for sure especially compared to the others in the building the other four or five units out there. But will this trend continue right? Is there either a higher budget or are the people who have more limited budgets simply stepping away? And I believe it's that one they're going to be the ones most likely impacted by these economic changes whether that's layoffs whether that's uncertainty right they don't necessarily have the buffer that people who have seemingly bottomless pockets do. So that's really the story I think for the month of March and the month of April it's going to be tracking all the volatility and seeing exactly what's going on what's changing and keeping you up to speed because again the lowest mortgage rate that I saw over the past few days was 5.125 on a five-year adjustable rate. Just a month ago those were still around six percent that's a substantial decrease. How long does it stay there? I don't know as far as I know today it could be back up to five and a half so timing's going to matter you got to stay on top of things that's what I'm here for. So if you haven't already make sure that you subscribe and if this video helped you hit the like button for me but if you need any help if you have any questions if you want to see any properties out there feel free to reach out any of the ways you see here. Thanks as always for hanging out and we'll see you next time.