💣 In 48 Hours... It' ALL Going DOWN—Don't Say I Didn't Warn You!

What hits Wednesday could send everything crashing. Don't say I didn't warn you. Plus, we have a sponsored a show like to welcome Rain Therapeutics. You can find him on the NASDAQ and symbol RNTX and their biopharmaceutical company who stock just closed over its six month volume profile and rising momentum, setting up a potential 26% move to the upside. Stay tuned to the end of the show or check out the pin comment or description for more information. Now let's head over to Goldman where we find out on Wednesday why everything could come crashing down. Because Goldman knows it's all about the long end. That's the long end of the yield curve. And they're asking where could 30 year treasury yields go? Well, after touching 5% this last week, Goldman knows they could break out to 6%. And if that happened, it could send stocks plunging. But what comes on Wednesday isn't about U.S. treasury yields. It's all about Japan. Because even though we saw a weak 20 year U.S. treasury auction this past week with the largest tail, the real risk is in Japan. Because what we're seeing at the long end of the curve is life insurance companies that have been a big buyer of the long end have turned into net sellers. Now the problem is on Wednesday, there's a big auction there. And the issue is the demand shift in the long end of Japan is acute and akin to what the UK has gone through. And that means on Wednesday, we're going to get the results from their 40 year bond auction. This is something the U.S. markets aren't going to cover. But if you see a spike in yields there, well, watch out. What it means is stock prices could come crashing down at the same time. It could send the U.S. 30 year yield spiking up as well. But something else we see that could be spiking higher, that's a stock for our sponsor today show Rain Therapeutics, again on the NASDAQ and a symbol RNTX. And you can see the rising momentum between the RSI and the MACD is driving the price of their stock higher. On Friday, it closed over its six month volume profile, setting up a potential 26 percent move higher up to two dollars and 50 cents. Again, stay tuned to the end of the show or check out the pinned comment or description for more information. Because, again, as we talk about the risks of the equity market, it's all about the long end of the curve. Let's take a look at the NASDAQ 100 against 30 year treasury yields in red. Let's go back to 2020. What do we see? The both are rising the same time. But as we get into 2022, a new dynamic shows up. And that means when long rates rise, you see stock prices crash and it happens several times. And right now we see a lot of investors are bullish on stocks. At the same time, they're bearish on bonds. But if we see yields spike higher, it could be a major problem for the equity markets, one that could turn the machines into big sellers. But somebody is very bullish on bonds and has been wrong. Well, that's Michael Horton at a Bank of America. He knows that the 30 year note is a great entry point with a yield above 5 percent, going against what Goldman's saying that yields could get to six. Now, I want to know from you, do you think the long bond is a buy here or do you think inflation goes higher and you want to stay away that you're short the bond market? Weigh in the comments below. I'd love to hear from you, because underneath the equity market, we have a lot of buyers and one big one that could start showing up soon. Let's talk about CTAs, and I want you to note that they are buyers in virtually every scenario. But there's a key point. I want you to see this medium term pivot level at fifty seven fifty four. Let's take a look at the charts here, because I want to understand the risk here. Let's take a look at the S&P 500, which rallied up in the supply zone where it found sellers, pulled back to its 200 day moving average on Friday, found support here. But the risk is even though CTAs are buyers in all scenarios, if you see a close below that medium term pivot point, well, all of a sudden the risk is you're going to find out they could be sellers in every case here. That means they're going to have to back off on those long positions. But someone else is a big buyer. Well, that is, of course, corporate share buybacks that we now estimate approximately 90 percent of them are in their open window. That's going to stand around to June 13th. Put that on your calendar because someone else that could be a big buyer gets hedge funds. Now, long only finished minus two billion net sellers for the week while hedge funds were flat. Keep in mind that hedge funds have been massively short this market. And if they turn around and start buying, could be a huge catalyst under equity prices. But at the same time, we need them to be buying the long bond as well. Someone needs to buy it again, making that 40 year auction on JGBs on Wednesday very critical for the path of equity prices. Let's take a look at hedge fund position because they've been massively short. This market is retail came in and were huge buyers triggering machines to buy and corporate share buybacks coming out of their blackout window. We look at last week hedge funds were net even on it, but have a lot of catch up to play here. And again, if they turn into big buyers here, it could be a huge catapult that sends equity prices back to all time highs and maybe even higher. But of course, everything is going to be keyed on that 40 year JGB auction on Wednesday. If it goes bad, all bets are off. Let's talk about the U.S. equity market because when we take a look at breadth here of the S&P 500, as we look at the percentage of S&P that's trading above its 50 day moving average, we're at 62. We know no dislocations here at all. We see breadth and price are running right in line. But let's take a look at our screens here. Let's look at momentum. It's positive. Now, how do we know that through a strength index? It's above 40. The moving average convergent divergence. It is a positive cross. Our own momentum timer pro, which aggregates these technical signals together, plus adds the trend, says, look, we've got 16 consecutive daily buy signals. So perhaps this pullback in the S&P could be a buying opportunity. We'll look at that chart again here in a moment. Right now, we don't have a position on it. But if you want to trade against the machines and win, well, our program, CTA Time Pro, it mimics machine positioning, but runs a historical model right now saying the machines that need to be long. And right now they're set to buy could change on Wednesday. We'll see from a momentum perspective. We show momentum to the upside. Lots of opportunity there. Now, how do you jump in on those programs? Grab the links in the description below. Use the coupon code for your free 30 day trial. We've had some massive winners here. We think we've got some more on deck. Want you to join us and make big money trading this market. Let's take a look at the S&P 500 here. And what do we see? It ran right into a six month volume profile. There is the reason we found sellers push right back to its 200 day moving average. We really want to see it hold here because, again, if it moves below that key point for Goldman, that midterm level, watch out. There's going to be more selling here. But if hedge funds come back online, it could be a tailwind under the U.S. equity market. Let's talk about tech stocks again. We see a breath is right in line with price right now. Seventy two percent of the Nasdaq trading above is 50 day moving average. A good sign. Let's take a look. Momentum positive here. Our size above 60. Magdy's got a positive across 19 consecutive daily buy signals. You know, we don't have a position on this right now either. But let's take a look at the chart here. And the reason we don't, we think there's other opportunities. And what do we see? It ran right into a six month volume profile, found sellers. The question is where support here. Does that gap up move hold? If it does, what we see is a potential bullish breakout and get back over that six month volume profile. And then you've got to run at all time highs here. And you may think back. I told our subscribers and I told our viewers that you wanted to buy that gap up open. I joined in. I bought semiconductors, if you can believe that's right. I'm bullish on U.S. equities here. But if you think about it, CTAs are buying. Corporates are buying. Retailers buying. And what happens if hedge funds buy? Well, all you need is a little news behind it and you can see things take off. But one big red flag is small caps. What we note is the price and breadth are rolling over, but no major dislocations here that would cause us any red flags. But when we look at the chart, we find a little different perspective. Now, we got stopped out of this trade, even though momentum is positive on the Russell 2000. Back on the 15th, the trades we put out for our CTA and momentum time pro subscribers got stopped out. Look at those gains, 6.8 and 4.7, respectively. You too, my friends, can jump in on this. Grab the links in the description below. Use the coupon code for your free 30 day trial. Let's take a look at IWM here because we get a really interesting perspective, and that is it ran right into its 100 day moving average here in blue, right into supply zone. Now, keep in mind, this is where sellers were at before and now they're back. So what are we looking for? Well, we want to see that 50 day moving average in green hole, because when you get across of a moving average and it pulls back and find support there, it's a bullish setup. If you see small caps turn around and rally back in supply zone and flip these shorts into longs, you've got to run up here to 224.88. But we got a long ways to go on that. We're going to need some economic data to back that. But let's talk about the energy market, something else I'm also bullish on here is let's look at the news, because what we see here is oil prices rise after Trump delays tariffs. And how about this? Lower oil prices could soften up rig and crew counts in North Dakota. Keep in mind, when prices get below production cross, well, producers don't keep producing at a loss for long. They make some changes here and that's the bullish narrative we see in the energy markets. Let's take a look at XLA momentum is positive. Now, keep in mind, we got stopped out of these trades on our CTA time pro for no gain momentum time pro just a small gain here. But I'm still bullish on this sector. We're going to be looking for another entry point. But right now they are a size of forty five. MACD is negative. We still have two consecutive daily buy signals due to the trend being up here. Now, as you can see, I forgot to copy the machine position momentum data. But let's flip over the charts and see what's going on with XLA, because we had a rally up into his 50 day moving average. It was trending down, got rejected there after a little bit of a fight is pulled back here into this prior level of support. So you can see there's a lot of volume that came in here. This is a big indicator price rallied up a bit, found support right here around 80 rallied up as pulling back. Now, if it holds this level, which it did least on Thursday and Friday, if it rallies from here again, it's a bullish indicator. We'll see the momentum signal start to turn up. We'd be looking at a move up to eighty nine seventy two if it can break through that two hundred day moving average there, which doesn't appear to be a major issue for actually in the past. Let's talk about bank stocks, because right now everyone's saying buy the banks and we're saying not if we're heading to a recession, you want to stay a long ways away from them. But our screens are saying momentum is positive for the last 15 days. I'm going to show you why I think that's going to change. And even though machine position is very stretched here, the long side, as well as momentum, the risk is clearly in the charts. Let's take a look at XLF, because what do we see? It ran right into a six month volume profile is pulling back here to its hundred day moving average. I think it's more likely to pull back to its 50, maybe even 200 day moving average. I wouldn't be bullish until I saw it hold one of those two moving averages, maybe the hundred day. But you can see that has not been a great point of support. I'd be much more confident if it held the 50 or 200 day for right now. Hang on to that trade. Put that one in your pocket. Keep an eye on that chart because the pros say emerging markets are where it's at. Let's take a look at the chart here, because I'm not overly convinced that there's a lot of upside opportunity here. Now, the RSI is at 66. The MACD has got a positive cross. Technically speaking, on a momentum basis, well, you've got 16 consecutive daily buy signals. You've got machine position stretch. Everything here looks really good, except I'm just not convinced that the chart is what I'm excited about. And you can see it ran right into this level of resistance. We put this chart on here a couple of weeks ago. And why is that? Because it's been a point where we've seen sellers before. Now, if it can break out from here to the upside, then you've got to run right up here into around 49 to 50. The risk here is if it doesn't hold and it starts to reverse, well, then watch out. You're looking at a pullback to the 21-day moving average. More realistically, look at this cluster. You got the 100, the 250. There's your major level of support. Look for a pullback from there. If those hold, well, then we would turn and be bullish on EEM. But one thing Bank of America is bullish on is a long bond, but we're not there yet. Let's take a look at TLT. Momentum is negative. The RSI oversold conditions at 36. MACD's got a negative cross. Technically speaking, you want to avoid this one. Even one man, Tyron Pro, saying, look, 18 consecutive daily sell signals. We want to see that flip around. We want to see that one month window that sell back, start to turn and look at machine positioning. MACD's short here. So what it's telling us is if you're looking to buy the long bond, the answer is not yet. Let's take a look at TLT, because what we see on the end of the week is some buying here. But look, it's sitting under its 10-day volume profile. What does that tell us? You want to wait until this thing crosses 85.40. If you're looking to take a position here, you want to get a price up a little bit higher, and then your next target is going to be 88.11. If you break that and a lot of those shorts, you've got to run up here to 93. So we're going to be watching this one closely as well for our subscribers, which you can get into. Again, 30-day free trial. Grab those links in the description below. While you're there, check out the stock for a sponsor of today's show. That's Rain Therapeutics. You can find them on the NASA symbol RNTX. Well, let's talk about gold, because, well, I don't love the chart set up on gold here. I know a lot of you are bullish on gold still. Weigh in the comments, London, are you bullish on gold or you turn embarrassed because they don't like this chart set up at this point and want to see gold break 317.63. Same thing for GDX. We're seeing some signals here, but really, I'm not overly bullish until we get a breakout. I want to see it get up here to 53.25 and break out of that right now. Don't see any signs of either of that. But something we were bullish on, we got on the wrong side of this trade, but got out quickly. That's the dollar. But this could be a huge opportunity because, again, there's a lot of short positions. We see the machine selling off again, momentum flipping to the sell side. So what we saw is a little bit of a rally. Now we're seeing a pullback. Again, opportunity is where a lot of people aren't looking. And right now people are not paying attention to the dollar because everybody's betting that it's only going to go down. Now, let's take a look here because you see this volume here in green. If this holds right around 2720, if you're going to pull back into support here and it holds that volume, well, watch out. You're going to get another run at the 50 day moving average. The risk is for at least all the bears. It breaks through there and rallies up to 100 day moving average. We think there's opportunity knocking in the dollar, but we're not there yet. But some big opportunity has been in uranium and we are cashing in big and you could have joined us. All we told you. All you had to do is grab that 30 day free trial back in April, but you can join in our next big trade right now. We're sitting up 32.74 percent. Our CTA subscribers, twenty nine point five percent for momentum time pro subscribers raising our stop loss levels. And again, we think there is more upside as the news drives money into uranium. And what are we looking at? This big, beautiful gap up move on Friday. Let's zoom out to the five year chart. What are we looking at? Upside at thirty four. If it can break out of there, you're into a new massive bull market in uranium. But we're looking to move up there. We'll tighten up our stop loss levels just in case. But again, the opportunity in uranium has been huge. And there's going to be a lot of other opportunities we want you to get in on, particularly that for a stock for a sponsor. Today's show, Rain Therapeutics. Again, you can find them on the Nasdaq and Symbol RNTX. Let's take a look at what's going on with them because there's huge opportunity as Rain Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical company advancing a novel pipeline of first in class medicines to address significant unmet medical needs in orphan pulmonary and fibrosis indications. And Rain Therapeutics is developing new treatments for rare lung and fibrosis diseases with their leading drug LTI-03 showing promise in reducing lung scarring for promoting healing. LTI-03 is a better safety profile than the current top treatment is moving into phase two trials to test its effectiveness on lung function. And let's take a look at some of their recent press releases, because LTI-03 is a novel treatment with potential to reverse the course of IPF. And only two drugs are approved for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, or IPF, with a leading drug, Ofri, generating over $3.6 billion in sales in 2023. And the global IPF market is expected to reach $11.7 billion. LTI-03 could not only treat IPF, but has a potential to address other fibrosis conditions affecting organs like heart, kidneys, liver, skin, or eyes, offering significant market opportunities. And Rain Therapeutics announces initiation of a new phase two trial of LTI-03 in patients with IPF. Let's take a look at the details here. Because they started a phase two clinical trial for LTI-03, a promising new drug aimed at treating idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, a rare lung disease, and shows potential to reduce lung scarring and promote healing with better safety profile than current leading treatment, Ofri, which earned $3.6 billion in 2023. With only two drugs approved for IPF and projected global market at $11.3 billion, LTI-03 could address other fibrosis conditions, expanding its market potential. And Rain Therapeutics reported its first quarter 2025 financial results and provides a business update. Let's take a look at the details of this. The company reported $12.3 million net loss in Q1 2025, with $80 million in cash to fund operations through 2026. They expect initial trial results in the first half of 2026 and will present two abstracts in 2025 American Thoracic Society Conference. And they recently announced with Curate Limited planned integration of deep learning platform for phase two trial of LTI-03 in patients with IPF. They have partnered with Curate Limited to integrate advanced AI imaging technology into their phase two trial for LTI-03 and Curate's deep learning platform will analyze lung scans to better understand LTI-03's effects on lung function and disease progression. The collaboration aims to improve treatment outcomes for the 2 million IPF patients worldwide who have limited options. But one thing that we think has a big option leads to the upside. That is the stock for Rain Therapeutics. Again, you find it on the NASDAQ symbol RNTX and we can see on rising momentum, price took off and on Friday closed over at six month volume profile, setting up a potential 26% move up to $2.50. Let's zoom into the 30 day window. What do we see? Price rallied up to $2.40, pulled back, found support at this volume right here and now is looking to take off. And we think it's going to break over that recent high again, setting up a potential 26% move higher in their stock. Again, you can find them on the NASDAQ symbol RNTX. And as always, with any company we feature on our show, you are in no obligation to purchase their stock. Be sure to do our research before placing any trades. And with that, I'm Steve Van Meter. Thanks for watching. Thanks for being fans. Bye now.