On Thursday May 29th, Elon Musk gave a speech presenting progress updates and highlights of new technologies being developed at SpaceX in support of the Starship Program, as well as supporting a Lunar Base, and eventually setting up the first pieces of a Martian City within the next decade.
On Thursday, May 29th, SpaceX released a
Mars update and Starship update with a
speech from Elon Musk detailing plans
for the next evolutions of the Starship
program. We were able to receive a lot
of new information about the hardware on
Starship, the different evolutions and
versions that they have planned, and
realistic details about the actual Mars
colonization plans.
Elon started the presentation detailing
progress that they've made since 2019
when they first broke ground at Bokh
Chica. He went on to congratulate the
team for the progress that they've made
over the past 6 years at the newly
incorporated Starbase Texas.
As previously announced, he reiterated
plans to build a large factory or a
gigabay factory at both Starbase, Texas
and at Cape Canaveral, Florida in order
to facilitate their ambitious launch
cadence that they want to achieve.
Ultimately, we're aiming for the ability
to produce a thousand ships a year. So,
three ships a day. So in order to
achieve this goal, we have to be we have
to make rapidly reusable rockets so that
the uh the cost per flight the cost per
ton to Mars is as low as possible. We
could it's actually four RSRs. It's like
a pirate. R it's like rapidly reusable
reliable rockets is the key.
RR. After congratulating the team once
again for all the progress that they've
made so far over the past nine flights,
especially being able to catch the
Superheavy booster, he went on to
elaborate on the plans to catch the
actual Starship. As many have previously
theorized, they will indeed catch the
Starship in a similar method to the
booster with small pins on either side
so that the catch arms on the second
tower would be able to catch Starship
after a couple of orbits with the ship.
Uh takes a bit longer because it's got
to orbit Earth a few times until the
ground track comes back over the launch
pad. Uh but it the ship is also intended
to be refflowing multiple times per day.
So that's what we hope to demonstrate
later this year, maybe as soon as 2 or 3
months from now.
Obviously, this is a very ambitious goal
and they have other problems that they
need to figure out with Starship first.
But if they are able to achieve what
they plan, that would be very impressive
to see later this year or early next
year. Moving right along though, Elon
started sharing hardware updates,
including updates about the Raptor 3
engine. And I believe this is the first
time that the public has been able to
see the Raptor vacuum version which you
see the larger on the left. I mean even
industry experts when we showed a
picture of the Raptor 3 said that engine
is not complete. So then we said well
here's the engine not complete firing uh
at a level of efficiency that has never
been achieved before.
So in order to make the engine like that
we had to simplify so many parts of the
design incorporate uh secondary fluid
circuits and electronics in the
structure of the engine itself u so
everything is contained and protected uh
it is uh a marvel of engineering frankly
uh so the booster will look a little
naked on the bottom because the the
Raptor 3 engines don't require a heat
shield so it look like it looks like
there's kind of parts missing but that's
just because the the Raptor heat shield
uh does not the the Raptor 3 does not
need a heat shield. So, it's just it's
just standing there there in
a bathed in flaming plasma.
Interestingly, Elon announced that they
will no longer throw away the hot stage
ring in between the booster and the
Starship. Instead, they will have an
integrated interstage and keep it for
every flight to maximize their reuse and
reusability. We even got to see a
version of it on the real hardware
sitting next to him during this entire
speech. Then one of the other
technologies that's key for Mars is is
doing orbital propellant transfer. So
you can think of this like similar to
aerial refueling for airplanes. Uh but
in this case it's orbital refilling of
rockets which has never been done
before. uh but it is you know
technically feasible but the two
starships would get together and one
starship would transfer fuel and oxygen
and actually most of the mass is oxygen
it's almost 80% oxygen that gets
transferred um a little over 20% fuel
and so on you you so you send a starship
to orbit with that's full of payload and
then you send up a bunch of other
starships up and you would refill the
propellant on that starship and once the
the propellant tanks are mostly full
then you can depart for the Mars for
Mars or the moon or Yeah. So, this is an
important technology which we should
hopefully uh demonstrate next
year. This is great news to hear. Again,
super ambitious, but I would rather them
push hard and try to achieve that
sometime next year. Elon then went on to
talk about heat shield tiles and
developing new technologies that would
not only be able to allow them to have
reusable heat shield tiles, but
something that could withstand the extra
heat that they would experience
re-entering the Martian atmosphere
because it's an extremely hard problem
uh to to be able to withstand the
extreme heat and pressure of re-entry.
The only things that that can really
withstand this level of heat are uh
advanced sort of ceramics uh kind
of you know basically glass, aluminum
uh some types of of
uh carbon carbon but very very little
actually can survive the uh and with
with reusability without getting without
eroding um or falling off or cracking uh
can survive the stresses of re-entry.
Um, so this will be the first time
uh that it's done that that that a
reusable orbital heat shield is
developed. Um, and it needs to be
obviously extremely reliable. Um, this
this will be something that we'll be
working on for a few years, I think, to
to keep honing the the heat shield. Um,
it's it's a very it's it's it is an
achievable thing. So, we're not trying
to do something that isn't achievable.
It is within the realm of physics to get
this done. Just an extraordinarily
difficult thing to get done. We we want
to we want to use the same heat shield
for Earth that we use for Mars because
there are many other factors with the
heat shield uh such as making sure the
tiles don't crack or fall off or
anything like that. Um so we want to
have the same heat shield structure,
same material on Earth as on Mars so we
can test it uh hundreds of times on
Earth before going to Mars and be
confident that when it goes to Mars it
will work.
Elon then went on to discuss a couple of
upgrades to both the superheavy booster
and the Starship itself, talking about
height increases, a little bit more fuel
that both will be able to carry with
them, and performance increases due to
the Raptor 3 engines. These are planned
upgrades that are subject to change as
needs are identified, but at least has a
current path for the next version,
possibly the next two versions of these
vehicles. For example, the next version
of the Starship upper stage will have
six engines as the previous two versions
did, but eventually will be upgraded to
nine engines with three additional
vacuum Raptor
engines. And so, inevitably, the
Starship stack will have 42 engines. Um,
and then along the way, we could do very
cool things like have a moon base. Um,
like moon base alpha. Uh, anyway, we
should have a moon base alpha, which is
the next step after the Apollo program
would be to have a base on the moon. Um,
so you could like you could have a like
a gigantic um, science station doing
research about the nature of the
universe on the moon. Would be very
cool. I don't know about you guys, but
this is super encouraging to me. I
thought that Elon had all but given up
on the moon would advocate for going
completely to Mars, but since they have
their contract with NASA, I love to see
that they're talking about and working
on ideas for lunar transport and
building a moon base. Also, I believe
that this kind of confirms what many of
us were wondering regarding whether how
they were going to deploy payloads. And
it looks like they're going to use a
more simplified payload bay door instead
of some sort of interesting hungry hippo
clamp system. However, this is a
presentation about going to Mars and
making life multilanetary. So Elon
talked about Mars transfer windows and
when the soonest opportunity SpaceX
might have in order to launch their
first demo flight to the red planet. So
in terms of like when can you go to
Mars? So you can go to Mars every 2
years or every 26 months. So the next
Mars opportunity is at the end of next
year in about 18 months. So November,
December is the next Mars opportunity.
So we'll try to make that opportunity if
we get lucky. I think we'll probably
have a 50/50 chance right now because
we've got to uh we've got to figure out
orbital refilling uh in order to um have
enough capability to go to Mars. But if
we achieve orbital refilling in time,
then we will launch the first uh
uncrrewed uh Starship to Mars at the end
of next year. So this is a tentative
game plan here where we're hoping to
that we're hoping to achieve um where we
increase the the cadence of flights to
Mars dramatically with every launch
window. So every every roughly two years
um we are dramatically increasing the
number of of of ships that go to Mars um
and ultimately try to get to a thousand
or 2,000 ships u you know per Mars uh
rendevous.
Um
so the the I mean as a rough order of
magnitude this just guesses obviously
but we we need to get about a thou about
about a million tons is my guess um to
the surface of Mars to make um uh a
civilization on Mars self-
sustaining and get to that critical
point where um if the if the resupply
ships from Earth stop coming for any
reason Mars still succeeds Mars can
still grow and so you can't be missing
anything. You can't be missing even like
the equivalent of vitamin C or anything.
You've got to have everything you need
for Mars to grow.
Um that's that's essential. So my guess
is that's about a million tons, but it
might be 10 million tons. Uh I hope it's
not 100 million tons. That'd be a lot.
Um but uh we want to try to get to that
point and secure the future of
civilization as quickly as possible. For
the first time, Elon started talking
about actual candidates for where the
first Martian cities would be built and
announced that they're looking at the
Arcadia region. Of course, that's
subject to change, but right now, it's
looking like that's their most likely
candidate region because they need
somewhere that would be close to ice and
would be a convenient landing spot that
is away from mountainous regions as
well. He then announced plans that the
first several flights of Starship to
Mars would have Optimus robots on board
that would pave the way for humans and
begin construction of at least the early
base, if not the full-blown city before
humans arrive. Assuming the first
missions are successful and they land
successfully, we send humans on on the
next mission uh and we really start
building the infrastructure for Mars.
So anyway, might maybe just to be safe
and we might just do two two landing
episodes with the Optimus and do the
third one with humans. We'll
see. So that that classic picture of the
workers on the Empire
State. Elon then began to wrap up the
whole speech by talking about
communications at Mars and how with
Starlink, they'll be able to have laser
communications that will be able to
travel at the speed of light. So the
delay in communications would be as
little as 3 minutes or as up to 22
minutes depending on the position of
Mars if it's on the other side of the
Earth from the sun. He also reiterated
that Starlink is the primary financial
factor that is paying for all of this
development for Starship, Starbase, and
all of these Martian plans. He then laid
out the tentative plans for what the
first humans would be doing once they
arrive there. setting up the first
habitats, installing solar panels and
power generation, making sure that they
can develop their own water sources, and
be able to start putting in the
groundwork so that the huge fleet of 1
to 2,000 starships would be able to
arrive and land at space ports.
hopefully far enough away from the
Martian city to not cause any problems
if there's any accidents, but close
enough that they would be able to
deliver all of the resources that they
need in order to get the first outpost
going. Finally, Elon ended this
presentation with some words of
inspiration for all of us, not just
SpaceX.
So, anyone out there, like how cool
would that would that be? And even if
you don't want to do it, maybe that you
have a son or daughter who wants to do
that or a friend who wants to do it. And
I think it would be the adventure, the
best adventure that it one could
possibly do is to go and help build a
new civilization on a new planet. Yeah.
Anyway, this is this is like an
incredible thing to have like this
amazing city on Mars, the first city on
another
planet. and
um a new
world. Um and it's also an opportunity
to I think for the Martians to to
rethink how they want civilization to
be. So you can maybe rethink like what
kind of form of government do you want?
What new rules do you want to have?
Um, there's a lot of freedom and
opportunity in Mars to do a recompile on
civilization, which will be off to the
Martians.
So, all right, let's get it done.
Despite recent setbacks with the
Starship program, it is speeches like
this that remind us why we are
supporting this program in the first
place. Keep moving onwards and upwards
everybody and don't forget add Astra to
the stars.