Taliban Dumps China, EU Fights Back, and India Soars: A Geopolitical Shakeup || Digging into China

Hi, I'm Dong Seong. Welcome to Digging into China, where we explore China in depths to review unique perspectives. Iran was decisively defeated by a USIsrael alliance, diminishing China's global influence and costing it another ally. However, this is not the only challenge Xiinping has faced recently. With much of our focus on the Middle East, many may have overlooked other developments. In reality, the current international landscape is increasingly unfavorable for China. First, the Taliban in Afghanistan abruptly canled a 25-year oil extraction agreement signed with China last year, a deal Chinese state media hailed as a landmark in China Afghanistan energy cooperation. Yet, less than a year later, the Taliban ran it. It appears Xi Jinping is struggling to maintain even smaller allies like the Taliban. Second, trade tensions with the European Union have intensified. The EU imposed new trade sanctions on China and unusually publicly criticized Beijing for lacking sincerity in negotiations. The China EU conflict has expanded from electric vehicles to timber and medical equipment affecting multiple industries. Third, she is likely displeased by India's rapid rise. In June, India's PMI surged to 61 driven by strong domestic and foreign demand. Modi is capitalizing on China's setbacks. When China falters, India prospers. With so much adverse news, one wonders how much she is aware of. If he's seeing the full picture, he's likely furious. So in this video, let's explore these issues and perhaps ruffle she's feathers a bit. Let's begin with the first issue. How did the relationship between Beijing and the Taliban sour so quickly? When China initially aligned with the Taliban, it faced widespread criticism for associating with a group widely regarded as a terrorist. A clear case of diplomatic selfdebasement. Yet, the Beijing treated the Taliban as a valuable partner, engaging early despite the global disapproval and eagerly signed a 25-year oil development deal, further advancing she's belt and road initiative. The agreement stipulated that a Chinese oil company would invest $150 million in the first year, totaling $540 million over three years. However, the Taliban recently claimed the Beijing failed to deliver on its promises, prompting them to terminate the contract and expel the Chinese company from Afghanistan. This adds yet another blemish to the belt and the roads record. Amusingly, the Taliban's oil ministry spokesperson issued a formal statement meticulously listing China's five failures. First, the promised investments were delayed with Beijing failing to provide the full $150 million for the first year. Second, substandard technology. China's oil wells were shily constructed, seemingly exploiting the Taliban's lack of technical expertise. Third, insufficient guarantees, likely a complaint about unpaid protection fees. Fourth, the company hired a few Afghans instead bring in Chinese workers to profit without contributing to local employment. Fifth, a lack of social responsibility. Not a single school or hospital was built, leaving the Taliban deeply dissatisfied. In essence, the Taliban accused the Chinese oil company of being misery, more interested in exploitation than cooperation. To be fair, the Taliban now governs and must prioritize regime stability, fiscal revenue, and supporting their followers. When Chinese firms arrive, fail to pay protection fees, neglect local hiring, and monopolize profits, the Taliban naturally pushes back. If China proves unreliable, they will seek another partner like Russia to develop their oil fields. This situation underscores a broader truth. Only a rogue can counter a rogue. Beijing often outmaneuvers the rule following Western nations with its tactics. But against more brazen regimes like the Taliban or North Korea, it flounders and is typically outplayed. We've previously examined how many belt and road projects she has mishandled, often at a great human cost. These failures frequently occur in unstable lawless countries with a rampant armed factions. Recently, China faced a similar rejection in Nepal over a major project and now Afghanistan follows suit. She's international allies are abandoning him. These alliances secured through financial loges collapse when China can no longer afford to spend. One wonders how many nations will attend she's next grand diplomatic summit. Perhaps not even a handful of African leaders will show up. Next, let's address the escalating China EU trade tensions. It may seem surprising as many associated China's trade disputes with US. Yet, while US China relations appear calm, the EU conflict is intensifying. This reflects China's broader foreign policy. It targets perceived weaker opponents while treading carefully with the stronger ones. The US holds significant leverage restricting chips, technology or sanctioning firms, prompting China to act cautiously despite its rhetoric. The EU, however, is viewed differently. Chinese political commentators frequently disparage Europe as a declining civilization reliant on US support and lacking strength. With the key EU nations like Germany and France dependent on China's market, Beijing feels emboldened to confront Europe directly. Yet, even a weakened Europe won't tolerate the Chinese goods flooding its markets and devastating local industries. The EU has cracked down on Chinese dumping from electric vehicles to solar panels and now plywood imposing a 62% anti-dumping tariff on Chinese hardwood plywood. Chinese firms attempted to evade this by mislabeling hardwood as a softwood only to be caught by the EU. Additionally, the EU recently barred the Chinese medical equipment from public attenders exceeding€5 million, prompting strong objections from Beijing. The EU, frustrated by China's lack of sincerity in resolving trade disputes, has opted out of highlevel trade talks at the upcoming China EU summit on July 24th to 25th, seeing no point in continuing fruitless negotiations. As noted, Beijing underestimates the EU, refusing to yield even when Europe adopts a firm stance. Instead, China seeks to overpower it, wielding its rare earth reserves previously used against the US to retaliate against EU tariffs on Chinese EVs. This has forced the EU to urgently develop a strategic rare earth reserve plan. China also extended anti-dumping investigations on certain European goods as a counter measure. Clearly viewing the e viewing the EU as an easy target to squeeze. Finally, let's discuss India's manufacturing search a growing concern for Beijing. As the supply chain has a shift away from China, India has emerged as a key beneficiary. Its June composite PMI soared to 61, exceeding expectations and marking a 14-month high. A PMI above 60 is remarkable. For comparison, during China's post WTO economic boom, its PMI peaked at 57, never reaching 60. India, however, has consistently surpassed the 60 since last year, a feat even China's statistical prowess couldn't achieve post 2000. India's service PMI also hit 60.7 in June reflecting robust domestic and foreign demand. Apple exemplifies this trend shifting iPhone production to India with manufacturers like a Foxcon, Wistron and Pekatron expanding factories there. In May, India's electronics exports including phones surged 54% with total exports to the US rising over 20%. And the China stumbles, India thrives. China from its government to its citizens has long dismissed India, referring to it as disparagingly asan. A common Chinese saying as saying asserts as long as China avoids mistake, India will never catch up. Confident words, but China is now faltering and India is closing the gap. India faces challenges. curbersome bureaucracy, outdated infrastructure and uneven workforce. But it is progressing while China regresses. Catching up is only a matter of time. If China remains complacent, dreaming of its status as the world's second largest economy, the inevitable fall will be painful. In late June, Hang Ping, a member of the People's Bank of China's monetary policy committee, revealed at the summer Davos Forum that China's second quarter GDP would exceed 5%. The statist the statistic bureau seems to have its work done before the report is even released. With the narrative neatly script, China's economic planners continue to craft an optimistic vision for she. One wonders if she is insulated in a curated reality, unaware of the shifting global landscape. His allies are defecting. The Taliban scrapped the oil deal, accusing China of failing to invest or pay protection fees. Pakistan is auditing China Pakistan projects and the EU has turned adversary with the trade disputes escalating. Meanwhile, India long derided by China is capitalizing on global opportunities posting export figures and a PMI that even China's peak years couldn't match. Faced with such pressures, most would struggle to sleep. Iran, another ally, was recently defeated by the US. Yet, she appears unruffled, planning a grand military parade in September to project the strength. The PLA may not match the US in combat, but in parades, she is confident. Unlike the US military's casual approach, China's disciplined marches offer some solace at least. Thank you so much for watching. If you find this video helpful, please like it, drop a comment below, and hit the subscribe button right here. It really helps YouTube suggest my video to others. I'll be back with more content soon. Until then, be