Indoor Box Office Fireworks

Welcome to Season 2 Episode Lucky 13 of Ticket to Ride in a special 4th of July holiday weekend box office overview. Wave the flag, wave the flag, wave the flag. I don't have one. I've got Armenian flags somewhere around here. So yeah, so I'm Paul DeGarabedian, Senior Media Analyst for Paper Airplane. They really need no introduction at this point, but let's get right into it guys. So we're right in the middle of the 4th of July sweepstakes right now at the box office. Jurassic has done incredible business, Jurassic World Rebirth, which is just, I think this is going to be a huge 4th of July weekend. However, as we spoke of the three of us before we started recording, the 4th of July is a floating holiday. It lands on different days of the week. So making apples to apples comps is often tough, but we're going to run through a lot of data. And so Mike, you were mentioning that. Yeah, I mean, I think it's really, here's the thing about the 4th of July. The 4th of July is a bit of a mixed bag. You know, it's always considered a huge movie going weekend, which it is. However, the 4th itself is usually not necessarily that big of a day. It's similar to something like Labor Day where... Isn't it because the obvious thing is that if people are out watching fireworks at the movie theater, you know, out partying. That's exactly right. And to your point, it's a floating holiday. So it's a real mixed bag on how it plays out in relationship to where it is in the week. So on this, in this case, what I would say is the last time that 4th of July was on a Friday was 2014. And Paul, what was the overall three day and weekend? So for the July 4, 2014, which is a Friday through the 6th, the three day, a mere $133.7 million. But with Transformers Age of Extinction leading the way, but that movie had opened on June 27. So it wasn't like 2011, where Dark of the Moon, Transformers, that movie just blew the doors off in a five, a six and almost a seven day frame. We'll get into that a little bit later. Tammy was the brand new film, the Warner Brothers film that opened at $21.577 million. So the collective total for those movies was not exactly anything to write home about. But Mike, you make a great point about the day of the week for 4th of July matters. It was always the conventional wisdom that you really never wanted 4th of July to land on a weekend on a Friday, Saturday, or even a Sunday, because theoretically it hurts box office. But we'd have to actually dig into do people, what percentage of people are out on the 4th of July are watching fireworks or not at the movie theater? I don't know how you do that unless you just, well, you think about what are the biggest movies of the year for the last five years and they all land at different times. It isn't like the biggest movie of the year is always the weekend before Christmas or the weekend before Thanksgiving. Although the holiday helps certainly because people are in more of a relaxed frame of mind where they're looking for entertainment and people are gathered because they're looking for things to do with their friends and family. But at the end of the day, it's a product driven business, as we say again and again and again. So it depends on the movies that are actually in theater. And that makes a really good point. So as we sit here on Thursday the 3rd at roughly 11 in the morning Pacific time, a universal has not come out with their official number yet, but it was right around $31 million that they did. There was not a ton of what I would call Tuesday money. They did some early access PLF. They did about 1.9 million somewhere around there, I think is what they were talking about. So ultimately, 31 million that they did yesterday, the way that looks like it's playing out. If you lay over how the 4th of July is played when it's on a Friday before and again, we don't have a ton of going back to 2014 was 11 years ago. But plugging in the numbers, Paul looks like we're looking at about probably 94, 95 million for three and right a little north of 150 for five, which would exceed pretty much all the pre-release expectations that were out there. If you add in all the holdovers, it looks to me like right now we're probably looking at 155 north of that for three for the weekend. So we'll be ahead of 2014. And the five day looks like it could come in as high as 245 to 250, which would be enormous way to start off the month of July. And again, when you're doing these box office projections and here we are, like I said, on a Thursday, we're trying to map out what a weekend's going to look like. Any little wobble with numbers this high is going to cause a bit of a fluctuation. And Mike, I love the numbers that you brought up because we're going to check you because if you're right, man, this is great because Transformers Dark of the Moon, just go through the comp score data really quickly. Now you were saying maybe 94 for the three day. And so just to go through some of the records, so Transformers Dark of the Moon opened on a Wednesday. I have the comps for Wednesday, 4th of July openers, irrespective of what day 4th of July fell on. But Transformers Dark of the Moon, it did have a preview day on a Tuesday of the 28th of June in 2011. But the official opening was on Wednesday. So that the opening weekend grows for that mean the Friday through Sunday again, opening on a Wednesday, just like Jurassic World Rebirth, 97.8 million. You were saying, then opening five days, Wednesday through Sunday. And remember they had a preview day on Tuesday that was 16.1 million, which Jurassic doesn't have that. So it's not apples to apples, but 157.1 million. That's the record for five days, Wednesday through Sunday for a 4th of July film opening on a Wednesday. So is that right? Wow. So they're not going to be that far off. And again, any little wobble one way or the other, as far as the ups and downs, really, when you're talking about a number this big, makes a big change. So if they get a better than expected today or tomorrow, they could be challenging for that record then. Well, I'm glad you made that distinction. You're saying it could wobble. It's definitely this trajectory, it's a five day, it's got a lot of variables in it. Now, Spider-Man 2, interestingly, that opened June 30, Wednesday in 2004, some 21 years ago, earned 88.1 million for the three days. And get this, Mike, 152.4 million for the opening five days, Wednesday through Sunday. And that powered an overall though, five day for all films in the marketplace at 273.4 million. And I don't think we're going to get to that. No, I don't think that. That does not seem... Right now, looking at it, you've got F1 that looks like it's probably going to be in that 30 to $35 million range for the five day, which by the way, will be huge because that'll put that movie over the $100 million mark since it's opening. And Jurassic, the franchise has been amazing. I pulled some of those numbers and they've never had one open. They've been June openers. And I love going back to the... I'm going into the Comscore engine room right now to dig up the bones of the Jurassic background of these films. So the very first film, obviously, I remember when that came out, Mike, I'm sure you do too, and Thaddeus as well. June 11, 93, opened to $50.1 million unadjusted for inflation. That film did a 7.17 times multiple to wind up at $359.6 million domestically. That's insane. An opening day gross of $18.2 million for the original Jurassic Park based on Michael Crichton's book, Steven Spielberg directing, and the rest, as they say, is history. That film had so much buzz around it. I remember when it was in the month leading up to it, because it was based on famous book, famous director, sci-fi genre, which was very popular then and now as well. And obviously, it started a franchise. But that was such an exciting moment when that film came out because it felt so new, the special effects and everything, it just felt so new. And Mike, you had been in the industry longer than I had. At that point, though, I'm not trying to age you, by the way. It's fine. It's fine. But I remember I had started in the business on March 3rd of 93. I remember it well. That's when I started my career in the industry. And to have, just a few months later in June, to have Jurassic Park open, what a great trial by fire for me to get more into the business and the numbers and all that, get the box office. You think about this Jurassic Park, Jurassic World franchise that goes back to when you started, Paul, $2.2 billion domestically that this franchise has basically grossed. This is the second reboot toward it. And again, they've threaded the needle. I wouldn't call them reboots because they definitely acknowledge the previous installments in the franchise. But they've done a really good job of keeping it fresh and they freshened up the cast this time. They've gotten a little darker. They needed to, Mike, right? Because the last one didn't fare as well. The last Jurassic World didn't do as well as the first Jurassic World movie, which was a huge hit. So I think it's good. Universal has a history of retooling or rebooting with the Fast and Furious franchise, how after Tokyo Drift, it was like, oh boy, we're in trouble. And then, wow, they've just reinvented itself. And I think they've done that here with the Jurassic. Well, and that leads into a bigger topic, and that is the summer itself of this year. And I know, Paul, you were bullish on the $4 billion summer. I think we're moving in that direction. I mean, it feels like we've still got some high-end titles yet to come, as we've kind of just kicking off July here. We do have a lot of big titles to come. We can go through those too. But real quick, Mike, just to follow up, you were absolutely correct on the domestic Hume for all the Jurassic movies at $2.264 billion. The global Hume for all the films, that includes any reissues, all that, but $6 billion worldwide. And you wonder why they put a new installment out. We also wonder why studios are trying to create new franchises. So every time there's a significant investment in a new, well-funded film, it's like, could it become something that's a series? It's not a one-off. Films are less long-term. Well, creating a franchise these days is not easy. And we look at F1, and I don't know if you guys would consider it based on original IP or because F1 is based on the Formula One series, does that existing IP, but it knocked off Sinners as being the highest opening for a original IP film since the pandemic. Well, Mike, that begs for a great definition. Let's go through this. So what is original and what is known IP? I always say like with F1, it's an original movie, right? There wasn't an F1 prequel or an F1 one, and there probably will be an F2. I think you can pretty much bank on that. And like Sinners, I look at as being differentiated from the March movies that didn't perform in as much as Michael B. Jordan and Ryan Coogler together are brand. So is that IP? I guess it is. Alfred Hitchcock was a brand, right? Yeah. Look, the original IP is still continuing to struggle. We don't have to look any further than Illio from our friends over at Pixar to see, here's a movie that is critically acclaimed, audiences like it, and it's struggling to find an audience. And a good part of that, I believe, is it's that original IP, again, trying to break through. Right. But it's not a guarantee if you have a known IP that you're going to have a success either. Like, look at Megan 2.0, Jason Blum, I'm not speaking out of school here, he went out and said, we miscalculated a bit by changing the genre a little bit and then making the former antagonist now the protag. He just went through all those things for why that movie didn't work. He also mentioned something that I think you mentioned last year, Paul, or when the movie was, you know, I guess that was 23, so I guess we're talking two years ago. One of the things that made that movie ultra successful was its play period as well. It was a January release. It had come in right after the holidays. It was fresh. There was not a lot of competition for it. It filled a void. It's a lot different when you're opening up. And he pretty much said this in an interview I read with him that, you know, basically the release date, you know, it's a different game when you're playing, you know, with the big boys in summer. And he spoke with Matt Bellini on the Town podcast about it, Jason Blum, and was very frank about it. Now, they've made so many billions of dollars with modestly budgeted films over the years that, you know, he even said when you're, I'm paraphrasing, but like when you're a superstar outfit, you're going to have some slumps. It doesn't matter. And I would say even in sports and other areas as well. But I think by going in the summer, which I said to Pam McClintock in the Hollywood Reporter this week, in regard to Megan 2.0, is that it's the Wild West out there. It's gladiator school. It's not, this is a very competitive marketplace. I said it was Dickensian and it's the best of times for some and the worst of times for others in the parlance of our times, using a literary reference. But I think it's really, it's great for theaters to have all these movies. But again, you're going to have casualties out there, right guys? I mean, not every movie is going to perform to expectations. And June was down and we could talk about that. But April, May were up huge. And Mike, what do you call it? The movie gods, you always say. Well, but let's do a little, let's go back and talk about June a little bit. So June was down, I mean, I don't know if you have, I'm putting you, I don't know if you have what it was ultimately down. It was down 12% through the 29th. I'll run it again for the full month, but it was, it was down about 12%. And the majority of that was all due to inside out to last year. So as much as we were hailing inside out to last year for kind of saving the day and coming in with 654 million, which I think it did about 450 of that, you know, during June or something like. I looked at this last week, it made up 47% of the entire gross in the month of June last year. This year, different story. This year, the wealth was spread out fairly evenly through the month of June. As far as the, the top releases that to me, you know, I think how to train your dragon was the top grossing. If I'm not, but it made up, it was 23% of the gross. So the, the, the difference being last year, everything was all about one movie this year, the wealth was spread around, which I think ultimately long-term is better. So while it's down 12%, the silver lining is more movies were performing in the marketplace, right? And it was how to train your dragon, which account for 24% of the month. Now Lilo and Stitch was the number two movie for June mission, impossible final reckoning, then F1, but you know, you had ballerina 28 years later, Elio, karate kid legends, all really good movies, but they didn't really, if they had, if all of those had would have had to have over-performed to beat out inside out too. And even bad boys ride or die, which kicked off the month of June, right ahead of inside out to last year. So that's, what's going to happen. You know, like next year we could be looking at, you know, that record Memorial weekend of this year and going, wow, we're down now. I mean, you got to take the good with the bad. When we live through the record breaking moments, we have to realize that sets a new bar. And then the following year, you'd be like, Oh, we're way down, like period of time when it makes sense to start to draw conclusions, obviously week to week, you can't draw conclusions, whether it's chronologically year previous, the same week is a yearly. I mean, I think, I think the benchmarks are. You know, going into the summer. So up until whatever that may 5th weekend would be, would be our, our first benchmark. I think the next benchmark would be Labor day, you know, right after Labor day weekend and get a, we're looking at Paul's $4 billion summer and everybody had a big, smaller smile on their face. And then, you know, the next benchmark would be going into the holiday season. Let me go through the quarters real quick, Mike, you bring up a, this is the perfect time to do that. So Q1, the number one movie was Captain America brave, new world. We were down Q1, 12.2%. The year before 24 had doom part two leading the way. And that's why we were down for Q1, Q2, get this up 39% versus Q2. Obviously April. Hmm. What opened in April? I don't know a Minecraft movie centers. You know, so what a difference a year makes a Minecraft movie. And right at the beginning of the quarter too. So it had the whole quarter to play as well. And both of those movies played for the whole quarter. Yeah. Good point. Great point. And then April and May combined, you want to take a stab at how much we were up Minecraft movie leading the way. And just to help everybody out here, this is for the audience too. What was the film last year that led April and May in 24. And there's a big difference between the gross and those two. Um, so April and May combined, uh, was up drum roll, please. Versus 24, 50% or something like that, right? 90%. Wow. Wow. Goodness. Wow. I wouldn't have known off the top. I, I always ask questions that I already know. That's how I make myself look smart. Um, yeah, 90% Mike. So Minecraft movie in April, May generated 422.7 million last year, kingdom of the plan, the apes, which really was the only bright spot in that may, um, with a record low Memorial weekend, 133 million. So almost a three, $290 million advantage for a Minecraft movie. And that's why Mike remember, and that is when we were at cinema con this year heading, this was at the end of March, March was down 40. Uh, the month of March was down 46% at that point versus March of 24. Everybody was in the dumps. Everyone was bummed out, you know, at the bar getting drunk, just drowning their sorrows at cinema con. And then April that literally that Friday is when a Minecraft movie opened and suddenly like pitch in a time and determine what the, what the health of the industry is by that. At the end of the day, that's really what it's all about is what is the health of the industry? There's so much focus and attention on how is this industry doing, whether it's from the studio side or it's on the exhibition side. And that's why these numbers are tracked so closely is because people are taking a measure of where, how we do it, how we do it, how we do it. And there's some anxiety over it for obvious reasons, because of the pandemic and the journey we've all been on here over the last five years. So that's why we do it. Right. Well, what do they say? Thaddeus and Mike, I watched pot never boils. Right. So like, we were constantly looking at like, how is the industry doing? Oh, we're down. Oh, it's the end of the world. You know, do you guys want to go through, uh, we're getting, we're getting up here on the half hour mark in a bit. I want to go through, if you'd like, we can do whatever you want. What do you want to do guys? We can look through the upcoming. I think it's time to go through the there. There's a couple of big titles that are working out there. What do you got there, Paul? Well, I got four years, got a little Superman for you. Uh, that opens a July 11th. Uh, that's, I think, um, that's a movie that's top of mind for everyone. Uh, I have not seen it. I am a crypto, the superdog fan. I want a movie of his own at some point. I'm just, you know, throw me a bone people. Give me a crypto movie. Uh, so that, I mean, I think, do you guys have any comments on that? What, what, how important is the PLFs or the premium formats for Superman? Well, I think the PLFs are with any movie of this scale, whether it's Jurassic, whether it's F1, um, you know, and now we're looking at Superman, they're hugely important. Sci-fi action superhero. I mean, it's absolutely essential. It's a very much of a global campaign. Um, obviously a global movie and a global campaign. I don't know. Do you guys know if Superman has a, has a play date in China? That's another sort of topic that we all think about, whether the international grosses will come through. I'd have to look at that. I'm not, you know, I, we should know that, but let's cut that out. So we don't look dumb. No, I'm just kidding. I'm sure. I'm sure it does, but it may not. Sometimes they wait and put a date on it. We'll find out. We'll ask the studio audience for an assist on that. Um, I was going to say, and maybe this is a sticky wicket, but it's, we're talking about that's what ticket to ride is all about is the industry. So we have a Jurassic, a lot of premium screens and for man's going to need them to discuss. How do we, how does the industry work with that? Well, I mean, the, the, you know, the, the, I guess the interesting thing, or if you want to call it the fact on the are, you know, it's, what have you done for me lately? Um, so it's a very kind of week to week to week, um, programming the way it goes. So, you know, how to train your dragon into F1, into Jurassic, into Superman. I mean, that's pretty much how it goes. I have to say, Mike, you just said it right there. I think the industry actually threads that needle pretty well, considering the level of competition for the, for that real estate, the bigger circuits split the screens across the different locations as well, if I'm not mistaken. Well, it all depends. It really depends on, on where they are with it. In this current stretch, um, pretty much the way I laid it out is kind of the way that they're programming. Um, if you notice last weekend, I believe that, um, um, on F1, the PLFs, you know, accounted for almost 50% of the total growth. So people were very much pushed to see that that is going to then, when you look at the drop this weekend, you know, you have to take that into effect a little bit, because that means they're losing whatever it is percentage wise off the ticket price. Um, it's a very, um, you know, it, it, it kind of bounces around a little bit on that, you know, on what those are. It'll be interesting to see what the percentage of, you know, PLFs are this weekend on Jurassic and that, and the, the PLF has changed as well too, because remember, you know, back when I was a youngster and had hair PLFs were, you know, you had IMAX, that initially was the PLF, and then you had Dolby, and then you had IMAX, Dolby, and then D-Box, and then you had the motion seats, and then you had ScreenX. So you start adding all these different types of, you know, premium formats into the equation. They all have their own individual upcharges, you know, that get counted toward box office. Um, you know, so, you know, that, that actually leads to probably another topic, and that is, while box office, you know, is, is up at a certain percentage, attendance is not quite. Right, and we, we need to do a, we should do a whole episode on that, because that's really interesting. I, I also did a real, before we wrap soon, um, I also did a study of the, the ratings and what's leading the charge. I figured that PG at this point would be in the lead, although F1 and Jurassic are going to bring up PG-13, but it's interesting this year, because of Sinners and Final Destination, Bloodlines, R-rated movies so far this year, before Jurassic, have outgrossed PG-13. Is that right? PG-13 is trailing, which is unusual. Normally, pre-pandemic, it's always PG-13. I have the chart, uh, with number one. Last year and this year, PG movies have ruled the box office, and the year before. Um, so that's a bit of a change, another future topic, and there have been a lot of articles written on that. Why is PG now the go-to? I think we know why, because it's become cool, and it, everybody can go see a PG movie, theoretically. So yeah, a lot of cool stuff. Oh, let me just run through the upcoming releases, then we'll wrap it up, but I just want to leave our audience with, just look at, let's recap July. Hey, Paul, I want to, I want to just dovetail on what you just said, because it's very interesting when you look at the top grossing movies for the year. If you take the top five, three of the top five are what I would call family films. You have Minecraft, Lilo and Stitch, How to Train Your Dragon, all accounting in that top five, and then, you know, you can, there's the holiday holdover at number nine of Mufasa, and then you have, you know, Dogman at number 10, and Disney's Snow White at number 11, and Sonic at number 12. So basically, you know, family film is alive and kicking, and thriving in our business right now. Yeah, and that's why I ran that, because you have so much box office being generated, and by the way, those numbers that I, that I calculate, I include the holdovers in any given year, because that's the only way you can, that's the only way you should do it. Yeah, well, because that's what's getting registered, yep. Right, exactly. So let's, let's go quickly over what we've got coming up. Let's go lightning round. First of all, I want to just pay homage to, to, I can't even talk, so excited. I want to give a lot of credit to July, just recapping again, Jurassic World, Rebirth, Superman, Smurf, I Know What You Did Last Summer, Eddington, Fantastic Four First Steps, and The Home, and House on Eden, and Together. I wanted to throw in, you know, Roadside Attractions, IFCA 24, some cool movies in there. I never want to forget those, and we should do a Ticket to Ride look at the indie films of the summer, and the top ones, just for, you know, that would be cool. And then August, The Bad Guys 2, Naked Gun, Weapons, Freakier Friday, there's a lot of cool, Nobody 2, there's some cool movies in there. I look at, the month of August is a really cool one, Cots Stealing, The Roses. Yep. And then September 5th, just to give a little tease, The Conjuring Last Rites. I'm all in, I love The Conjuring franchise. It, it, look, it's stacked pretty, pretty good, and you know, I've seen a lot on The Roses, various, you know, different conventions we've been at, and I'm convinced that movie is going to work, you know, to what level, I couldn't tell you, but I think that's a movie that, you know, is, looks like it's fun, looks like the cast is having a great time with the movie. Yep. It, it looks to me like that one's going to deliver. Well, I love August, I've always said that, I think it's a great month, you get the more edge, the edgier fare, I should say. Sure. And I always talk about District 9 and Glorious Bastards, I believe Apocalypse Now was a August release. It's just a really cool month where studios will take some chances. I want to go back to, to Superman for a second. Yeah. And the interesting thing about that is what, you know, that's going to be one where the box office predictions from the out, the outside are going to be all over the place. And, you know, what's realistic on that, and, you know, what's not. Paul heard my rant last week, I heard somebody on one of the radio stations, they were talking about F1, and they were saying that the movie was, you know, going to make over $100 million. Now, I don't know if they were talking about international or domestic, they did not differentiate on any of that. But it was a, it's irresponsible to go out there and do that, because you set a bar that is unachievable, and was never going to happen. You know, F1 coming in where it did, you know, at $57 million, huge. Warners and Apple should be, they, they brought that movie over the finish line, they found ways to expand an audience that had always been difficult for like an F1 type of movie. And, you know, that movie is going to go out and be a big success. You know, from a theatrical box office standpoint, again, I can't talk about the finances of how the movie, you know, whatever the budget costs and whatever, only Apple can tell you whether or not that movie works for them on that. But from a box office from a movie, you know, a grossing potential for, you know, theater owners, you know, that's a win. Well, I'm thrilled that Superman from what I'm reading, although I don't know if it's an official running time, a mere two hours and 10 minutes. I'm in baby. I'm getting sick of these movies that are bloated and they go on forever. And I have to pee like five times during the movie not to get. Oh, well, what are you gonna do? What are you gonna do? Well, you know what you're gonna do? You're gonna listen to Ticket to Ride. We're gonna turn this one around quickly because it is a 4th of July special where the fireworks fly between the three of us, Thaddeus Bouchard, Mike Polydoros and me, Paul DeGarabedian. We really appreciate everyone watching and listening, following along at home. And we'll have more episodes in the future for you. Happy Friday. We have a big we have a we have a special guest coming up. Oh, we do. Our next episode, I believe we do. And we're going to keep that. We're very famous. Famous guest. Yes, we have a very famous guest. I don't even think Thaddeus knows who it is. We'll have to give him the ceremonial ticket, right? Yes. There you go. I like it. I like it. So looking forward to that. All right, guys. Thanks again. Ticket to Ride, episode 13, season two. Have a great weekend, guys. Enjoy the 4th. See you at the movie. Bye-bye. Bye-bye.