It’s largely believed that if the Federal Reserve gives the appearance of losing their independence, it would undermine America’s financial markets, it would cause treasury rates to spike back up, and the stock market would begin to sell off from a unprecedented uncertainty.
In this case, if the Federal Reserve is seen as “politicized,” investors will demand a higher risk premium on US Treasuries (after all, the United States Federal Reserve will no longer be seen as an independent entity, and lowering interest rates would undermine the long term safety of the market). Not to mention, if there’s too much “easy money,” the dollar would further be devalued, leading to a sell off of US Currency.
Personally, I think it’s obvious that Trump is the type of person to openly test the waters by throwing out statements - seeing how the market reacts - and then making a decision from there.
00:00- Intro 01:18 - Raising vs Lowering Rates 06:12 - Protect Your Information 08:00 - Firing Jerome Powell 09:14 - Powell Resigning 10:53 - Market Selloff 12:12 - What Will Likely Happen
What's up you guys, it's Graham here.
So I'll be honest, never in a million years did I expect to be sitting here making this
video, but we have to talk about firing Jerome Powell.
That's right.
For the last few months, we have heard nonstop rumors, threats, and inside knowledge about
the potential firing of the head of the Federal Reserve for failing to cut interest rates.
In fact, at the time I'm filming this video, CNBC was quoted as saying the president asked
lawmakers how they felt about firing the Fed chair.
They expressed approval for firing him.
The president indicated he likely will soon.
So given how quickly all of this is beginning to unravel, we got to talk about the potential
of this actually happening, the implications this could have throughout our entire economy,
and what experts say is most likely going to happen next.
Because without exaggeration, this single event could have consequences and a fallout
unlike anything we've ever seen before.
And if you don't understand what's going on, you're in for a world of trouble.
Although before we go into this and why Congress calls it imminent, if you appreciate unbiased
breaking news videos like this where we just cover the facts for what they are, it would
mean the world to me if you hit the like button or subscribe if you haven't done that already.
It's totally free.
It takes you a split second to do and as a thank you for doing that, I will do my best
to read and reply to as many of your comments as I can.
So thanks so much.
And also a big thank you to incognito for sponsoring this video.
But more on that later.
All right.
So in terms of firing Jerome Powell and whether or not this is even a threat worth considering,
we first have to talk about the Federal Reserve on the most basic level.
For example, they're what's known as the central bank whose entire job is to oversee
your economy, regulate financial institutions, and control the supply of money that goes
into and out of the system.
Their priority over anything else is to make sure that the United States has a strong labor
market, maintains maximum levels of stability, and operates in such a way that prevents prices
from skyrocketing out of control.
Or I guess more simply put, their entire job is to balance economic growth with making
sure that the price of eggs doesn't hit $10 a dozen.
So how do they do this?
Well, first they monitor and manage the inflation rate.
In this case, when inflation is low, meaning prices really aren't changing year to year,
they could reduce interest rates, which makes it cheaper to borrow.
And this helps boost spending and investment within the economy.
But when inflation starts rising too quickly or when borrowing starts seeming excessive,
they could raise interest rates, which slows everything back down.
Second, the Federal Reserve also regulates banking activity and ensures that they operate
within a strict set of guidelines.
And third, they'll also provide banking services and other policies to ensure that
the market operates smoothly.
This means if certain banks are having liquidity issues, the Fed could step in and bail them
out.
Essentially, the Federal Reserve is the backbone of our entire economy, and Jerome Powell is
in the driver's seat behind the steering wheel directing our economy towards hopefully
long-term growth.
However, what makes this so unique is that the Federal Reserve is considered an independent
agency, meaning they're not at the whims of political pressure when making policy decisions.
And most importantly, their decisions do not need any approval from anybody in Congress.
So why all of a sudden is there all this talk about firing Jerome Powell?
Well, on the simplest level, it all comes down to interest rates.
As of today, we've seen the fastest tightening cycle in history.
But as I'm sure you would expect, this creates a problem, the national debt.
The fact is, over the last five years, the United States has spent and borrowed an unsustainable
amount of money.
Trillions and trillions of dollars have been allocated to just about anything you could
think of.
And when interest rates are down at 0%, making those payments becomes very easy.
But when the rates rise to our recent record highs, as you can see, all of a sudden it
becomes quite expensive to maintain.
And this is where the real problem begins.
We're at a point where the national debt is becoming so expensive that we either have
to print more money to pay for it, which devalues our currency, or lower interest rates to reduce
the burden of our national debt, but floods the economy with more cheap money, which threatens
to reignite inflation.
Really either way, the scenario is not looking good.
And it's clear from the data that something has to be done.
So let's talk about the benefits of lowering interest rates.
One, wholesale inflation is going down.
This is what's known as the producer price index, or basically what businesses end up
paying that eventually gets passed on to the consumer.
And last month, it was found that there was no increase whatsoever, suggesting that inflation
is not getting worse in spite of tariffs.
Two, Trump says that a rate cut would save the government almost a trillion dollars a
year.
In this case, interest rates have a direct impact on what we pay for the national debt.
So by lowering interest rates, that would save us a lot of money.
And three, some people argue that for the last year, inflation is pretty much bottomed
out.
As you can see, inflation has remained below 3% for the last 12 months.
And even though we've seen a bit of an increase, in the big picture, it's really not that
bad.
So Trump has argued that we should preemptively cut interest rates today before it's too
late.
However, many people disagree with the sentiment and believe that interest rates should remain
high.
Like in this case, even though inflation is somewhat low, it's beginning to pick back
up again.
For example, inflation rose more than 0.3% month over month, which if that continues
would put us at an inflation rate back above 3%, a level we haven't seen since 2023.
Two, the labor market is still really strong.
Typically, the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in response to higher unemployment,
but that is currently near a record low.
Three, we have tariff concerns.
Jerome Powell said it himself.
They would have lowered interest rates this year, but tariff uncertainty is putting them
on edge.
And number four, political pressure doesn't seem to work on Jerome Powell.
Like here's the thing that most people don't realize.
Jerome Powell is not the only one unilaterally deciding whether or not to raise or lower
interest rates.
Instead, it's a committee of 12 people who come to a decision together.
Now sure, I don't doubt that he has some influence on the group of people, but it's
not like he could just go and say, Hey guys, I know I said this morning that we weren't
going to lower interest rates, but something just changed and now we're going to lower
them all of a sudden.
Anyway, in terms of what's likely to happen next and the impact this could have on our
entire economy, even if Jerome Powell voluntarily resigns, here's the part that you came for.
Because honestly, it's unlike anything I've ever expected before and you need to know
how to prepare.
Although before we go into that, just like it's important to hear about what's going
on in the market, it's equally as important to understand how to protect your data from
falling into the wrong hands.
For example, I don't know about you, but for me, I've been getting a ton of scam
emails and text messages about owing money or being charged with fake receipts to get
me to reach out for a refund.
And the crazy thing is the only way scammers know who to target is because your personal
information's floating around on the internet, thanks to data brokers who collect and sell
your information without you even knowing.
Thankfully though, it doesn't have to be this way because you have a right to protect
your privacy and request the data brokers remove the information they have about you.
Now when it comes to doing this as efficiently as possible, our sponsor Incogni is there
to help.
They could do all the dirty work for you by reaching out to data brokers on your behalf,
requesting that your personal data be removed, and then dealing with any objections that
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it, Incogni makes sure your information stays off the market by conducting repeated removal
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So if you want to get your private data taken down, visit incogni.com slash gram and use
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link down below in the description to get started today.
Thank you so much, and now let's get back to the video.
Alright, so in terms of firing Jerome Powell, and whether or not Trump has the authority
to actually go through with it, here's where things get very interesting.
Because believe it or not, there are circumstances where the president can fire the Federal Reserve.
See, by law, the president has the right to remove Federal Reserve board members for cause,
which is generally interpreted as inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance.
However, when you really get down to it, it is unclear whether or not this is the case
for the chair of the Federal Reserve instead of just the board members, and in this case,
that is Jerome Powell.
For example, a Harvard law professor agreed that it really just comes down to how the
text is interpreted.
In this law, the for cause provision was specifically written for board members, and it could be
argued that it may or may not apply to Jerome Powell, the chair.
Now, from Powell's perspective, he's openly said that Trump is not permitted to fire him
under law.
And more recently, the Supreme Court said that the relationship between the president
and the Federal Reserve is different from that of other independent agencies, signaling
that Jerome Powell is legally protected from being removed by President Donald Trump.
All of this means that legally, Donald Trump cannot fire Jerome Powell purely out of a
policy dispute.
It would lead to a historic legal battle.
However, that doesn't mean that he can't pressure him into voluntarily resigning.
So here's where things get really interesting.
In theory, Trump could make Jerome Powell's life so difficult that he voluntarily resigns
and gives up his position in favor of someone else who Trump appoints.
And believe it or not, this has happened before.
In 1951, President Truman disagreed with the Fed chair at the time, Thomas McCabe, for
keeping interest rates low to finance the Korean War.
And as the saying goes, McCabe was informed that his services were no longer satisfactory
and he quit.
In this case, President Truman didn't even need to fire him.
A resignation is all it takes.
And there you go.
The job is done.
And this sets the tone for even more political pressure in the future.
For example, in 1972, President Nixon pressured the Fed chair to keep interest rates low prior
to the election, which was later cited as having contributed to higher inflation.
And don't forget, in 2018, Trump pressured Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, calling
him clueless.
But those lower rates never came to fruition.
Today, however, it's becoming clear that a different strategy is at play.
Instead of firing Jerome Powell over policy disagreements, Trump's beginning to accuse
him of mismanaging the U.S. Central Bank's $2.5 billion renovation project.
Or as Trump says, when you spent $2.5 billion on really a renovation, I think it's really
disgraceful.
Later going on to say that he's never saw a Fed chair as someone who needed a palace.
That's why, unless there's serious legal precedent, Trump cannot fire the head of the Federal
Reserve over policy disagreements.
But he can make his life so difficult that he eventually resigns.
At which point, if that happens, you better brace yourself for a market selloff.
Look, I'm going to be honest.
It's largely believed that if the Federal Reserve gives the appearance of losing their
independence, it would undermine America's financial markets.
It would cause Treasury rates to spike back up, and the stock market would see an unprecedented
selloff due to all the uncertainty.
Why?
Well, if the Federal Reserve is seen as becoming politicized, investors would demand a higher
risk premium on U.S. Treasuries.
After all, the United States Federal Reserve would no longer be seen as an independent
agency, and lowering interest rates would undermine the financial stability of the markets
long term.
Not to mention, if there's too much easy money within the markets, some people believe that
would lead to a devaluation of our currency, causing other countries to begin selling it
off.
On top of that, if inflation expectations rise from printing more money, chances are
spending will rise right alongside with it, causing prices to potentially increase.
And monetary policy will begin to decrease substantially if we see a pattern of lowering
interest rates just for the sake of paying less on the national debt.
Now, in the very, very short term, there is a chance that the stock market could begin
to rally on the promise of lower interest rates, but long term, any price increase we
see will likely be drowned out by the negative consequences that we've already discussed.
So in terms of what I think is going to happen, and the probability of Jerome Powell actually
resigning or being fired, here is my honest take on things.
Personally, I think it's obvious that Trump is the type of person to test the waters by
making a wild statement, seeing how the market reacts, and then making a decision from there.
To me, it's just so apparent that he's putting a lot of pressure on Jerome Powell to lower
interest rates, he's seeing how the markets rise or fall with his statements, and he's
going to do what's in the short term best interest of our economy, because he probably
sees that as a reflection of his time in office.
For example, the markets suddenly began to fall on rumors that Trump was close to firing
Jerome Powell, but as soon as he said he wasn't going to fire him, the markets went back up.
This is super clear that he's seeing what the public reaction would be, and the markets
have spoken.
They think that firing Jerome Powell would be a bad idea.
However, I don't doubt that there is the opportunity for Trump to put significant pressure
on Jerome Powell, to the point where he either complies and lowers interest rates, or he
voluntarily resigns, especially if Jerome Powell isn't ready for a legal battle over
the $2.5 billion remodel.
To me, I'd put the chance of him actually firing Jerome Powell at less than 1%, since
I mean, let's be real, anything can happen.
Then from there, I'd give it maybe a 19% chance of him pressuring Jerome Powell enough
so that he eventually complies and lowers interest rates, even though he doesn't want
to.
And then I'd give it about an 80% chance that nothing really happens out of the ordinary.
Like keep in mind, Jerome Powell's current term is only scheduled to run through May
of 2026, so making such a big wave with less than a year to go doesn't make that much
sense from an optics standpoint.
I just think we'll continue to see more pressure, and it's whether or not Jerome
Powell caves in.
In 2018, he didn't.
But yeah, if Trump is able to make his life a living hell, then we'll have to wait and
see what happens.
But then again, I'm just a random dude making videos in a half-converted garage, and I have
no idea what on earth I'm talking about.
So if you agree or disagree with me, let me know down below in the comments section, and
I will do my best to read and reply to as many of you as I can, and as a huge thank
you for everyone who's made it to this point in the video, here's a picture of my kitten
Gigi.
So thank you so much again for watching, and until next time.