"The Economic Boom Is Just Getting Started"

With some tariff deals finally coming through, Apollo Global Management says that the economic boom is just about to start. For those of you that don't know, Apollo is one of the larger private equity funds in the world, and fun fact, they're the company that owns Yahoo Finance. And their chief economist just said that President Trump has turned the United States economy into a Nike swoosh that's about to take off, meaning he believes that we are right over here. And that's why in this video, I want to go over why Apollo Global Management believes that our economy is about to take off and what this can mean for you and your investments. This is an image we published in Market Briefs, which is my free financial newsletter, but according to Apollo, they said that the economy took the small dip because of government policies, because of immigration, because of the trade wars. But now that the trade deals are established, the economy is set to boom again, which is the other part of this Nike swoosh. Now, just between you and me, the reason why I'm publishing this video specifically is because last week, I published a video where I talked about Ray Dalio's opinion on our economy, where he says that the United States is facing a major debt crisis, and that's going to put the United States into a downturn in the economy. And the reason why I want you to understand these two different types of opinions is because everybody, a random person on YouTube and financial experts, has opinions on what's going to happen next, but financial opinions are like armpits. Everybody's got a couple, and some stink more than others. You can't predict what's going to happen tomorrow, but you can learn to position yourself to take advantage of whatever is going to happen by understanding different people's opinions. And the best way to do that is to study different points of views. And according to the chief economist at Apollo, our economy is set to grow. Take a read. Not a recession, but a Nike swoosh, where we have a slowdown over the next several quarters, and then we start to recover again. And more specifically, he highlights three major reasons why he believes that our economy is set to grow on the second part of this Nike swoosh. Number one is that our growth slowdown has been contained, which is why we have not seen a recession and why he does not believe that we're going to see a recession. Number two, he says that Americans are still spending money. And number three is because he says that our job market is still strong. So let me go through these three things. That way you could understand a different perspective on why he believes that our economy is set to boom. And a quick reminder for those of you that are investors and you want to see how you can find hidden investment opportunities before everybody else, I'm hosting a free investor workshop on August 12th. This is my biggest investor workshop of the year where I'll be going over hike and spot investment opportunities before the crowd by studying where the markets are moving. I'll be going over all of this on August 12th. I'm doing it twice, once in the morning at 1030 a.m. Eastern time, and again in the evening at 8 p.m. Eastern time. It's completely free. Yes, it is live. So if you'd like to join me on this virtual workshop, all you have to do is register, but please do so soon because we have hit capacity every time I've done this. So if you'd like to join me on this workshop, I have the link for you to join down in the description below. Starting with growth, he says that yes, our economy is cooling, but we're not tipping into recession territory. Take a read. The economy is not tipping into recession territory. It's just softening after years of outside's games. Our economy in the United States is measured through a number called GDP, which takes a look at all spending that happens in our economy. And what we saw is in 2021, our economy grew like crazy when our economy grew by 5.7%. Part of that has to do with all the stimulus checks. Part of that has to do with all the free money that the government was handing out to everybody, businesses and people. And part of that has to do with people just now finally leaving their houses after the pandemic and spending all of their money. Then in 2022, we saw our growth cool down at around 2.2%. In 2023, we saw the economy grow by around 2.5%. And in 2024, we saw our GDP, the economy grow by 2.8%. And now the question on everybody's mind is what's going to happen in 2025 and what's going to happen in 2026 and beyond. And we're starting to see a lot of wide potentials. And the reason why there's so much uncertainty is because we've seen so many government policy changes in 2025 through the Trump presidency. In the first quarter, we saw the economy grow by less than expected because of the initial rounds of tariffs. And then in the second quarter of 2025, we saw the economy grow faster than expected. This particularly is where we have so many differing opinions because some people believe that the tariffs are going to push the United States into a recession because it's going to force business owners to change operations. It's going to force business owners to raise their prices. It's going to reduce spending and it's going to hurt the economy. Other people believe that these tariffs are going to increase the revenue for the government. It's going to allow people to pay less money in taxes, and it's going to allow more jobs to come into the United States, which is going to help the economy thrive. We don't know what's going to happen. You can have a prediction. We're not going to ultimately know until that time comes. So we are starting to see a lot of predictions about either the United States going to shrink in 2025 or it's going to start growing 2025 and further in the coming years. We ultimately won't know. But this is where, according to Apollo's chief economist, we will start to see more growth in 2025 because we finally have some trade deals established and we have a more better outlined plan on what's going to be coming with government policy. So there's less uncertainty. The second thing that he points out has to do with consumer spending. He highlighted a new report by Bank of America, which says that despite higher interest rates, Americans keep spending money. And the reason why this is so important to pay attention to is because our entire economic system runs on spending. The more money you spend, the more money somebody else makes. If I have $100 in my pocket and I walk into Chipotle and I say, you know what, this is too expensive, and I walk out, that's not good for Chipotle. It's not good for the employees. That's not good for the owners or investors of Chipotle because that means they're not getting my money and the economy is slowing because I'm not spending. But now let's say I walk into Chipotle with my $100 and I say, you know what, give me five Chipotle bowls or whatever I can buy with the $100. Well, now that's good for Chipotle. It's good for the employees and it's also good for the investors because that means now Chipotle is getting my money and that is stimulating the economy. But then it gets even more exciting when I walk into Chipotle with my $100 and I say, you know what, take my $100, give me some extra guac and put it on my Amex. So now I spent $200 at Chipotle. I had $100 in my pocket, but now I spent $200 because I spent money I didn't have. That's even better for Chipotle. It's even better for the investors because now they're getting more money. They don't care that I'm financing it. They just care that they're getting more money and that's even better on the economy's eyes because now from the economic perspective, consumers are spending more money, which grows the economy. And so this is where when you understand what's happening with consumer spending, it can give you some insight on the economy. And let's take a look at what Bank of America actually said. According to the Bank of America report, Americans are spending slightly more money in 2025 than they did in 2024. Credit and debit card spending per household increased 0.2% year-over-year in June compared to 0.8% year-over-year in May. See, this is why it's so important to understand which perspective you're looking at when you're reading this report, because on one hand, if you read a report saying that, hey, credit card spending is increasing, you might say that's bad news if people are relying on their credit cards more. But from Apollo's perspective and from an economy perspective, they're saying, hey, people are spending money on their credit card more, which means people are spending more, which is good for the economy. But then we have to read a little bit further to understand if everybody is actually spending more money. Lower income household spending growth is particularly soft, with their total card spending growth negative year-over-year. So Bank of America is saying, yeah, Americans are spending more money except for lower income folks who are not. Lower income folks are actually holding back on spending more money on their credit card, which again, from one side might say, hey, that's good. People are spending less on the credit card. But again, from what Bank of America is saying, from what Apollo was saying, from the economic perspective, that's bad because if they're spending less money on the credit card, they're stimulating the economy less. But this really shouldn't be that surprising. We've seen inflation coming hotter than expected, while at the same time, wages really haven't been rising that much, not to mention people have been living off their credit cards for the last number of years. But despite all that, this is why Apollo is saying, hey, you know what, spending is still holding strong. And when you couple this, the spending that's still happening along with this growth, which has cooled, but it is not a recession, these two things signal a growth in the economy. But we also have to take a look at number three, which is the job market. According to Apollo, the job market, while slowing, continues to post solid numbers. Now, this one is especially tough because on one hand, we have data saying that unemployment in the United States is still near record low numbers, which makes it seem like the job market is exceptionally strong and everybody in the job market must be extremely happy because, well, the unemployment is so low. But then when you start to dig into it a little bit deeper, you start to see that, yeah, maybe a lot of people are not unemployed. Technically, more people are actually underemployed. Being underemployed means, yes, I went to college, I got a good degree, and I think I'm qualified to work at Amazon or Google or one of the big tech companies, but I'm working at Chipotle because I can't find a job that fits my qualifications and I still got to feed my family. This category of people in the job market are not considered unemployed, they're considered underemployed, and we're seeing a growing number of underemployed people in the United States. Now, for the sake of time in this video, I'm not going to go too deep into all the changes that are happening in the job market, from technology to layoffs to the shifts in the job market that we're seeing right now. I'll save that for a different topic. But just understand that this is what Apollo is saying that, hey, yes, based off the job market data, we are seeing a cooling in the job market, but despite that, the job market is still strong. So we have some interesting news here where it says, yeah, growth is slowing, but it's not going into recession. And then we have spending, which is cooling, but it's still strong. And then we have the job market, which is also cooling, but it's still staying strong, which seems like a lot of buts. But this is what Apollo is saying, is we are seeing a slowdown. But the reason why we're seeing the slowdown is because we saw such huge growth post-pandemic. So we saw that natural slowdown that we have been facing. And now, because of the trade deals, because of the new government policies, because things have finally started to turn that corner here, this Nike swoosh, Apollo says that this is the time where we're now going to see this growth happening. And this is where we don't know. Maybe it will grow, maybe it will go sideways, maybe it will go down. But what the good investors do is not to try to predict what's happening, is they want to position themselves ahead of whatever might happen. You want to be able to win whether the market goes up, sideways, or down, and that's by having the right investing strategy for you. Yes, you want to pay attention to different people's opinions. You want to pay attention to different people's thoughts. But you want to know how can you win no matter what's happening, because when you just try to predict what's happening, well, now you kind of become a gambler. Now it becomes much more difficult for you to actually make profits as an investor. And then we have to start by understanding your investing strategy. Are you going to be a passive investor and just put your money into the S&P 500? Are you going to be more of an active investor where you want to study where markets are moving and understanding shifts that are happening in our economy to position yourself ahead of those more risky for more potential returns? That's what I'm going to be focusing on on my investor workshop on August 12th. Again, if you haven't registered for that, I have the link for you down in the description. Are you going to be a hybrid of these approaches where you're some passive investments, some active investments, or are you just going to rely on a financial advisor? You have to know the right strategy and you have to know how you're going to play whatever is going to be coming next, because if you just chase headlines, well, chances are you're going to be the one that's making everybody else rich and not yourself, because now you start to buy when everybody's excited and then you sell when everybody's panicking, when in reality you want to be buying when people are running away. And if you're going to be selling, the best time to sell, of course, is when people are getting greedy. And now I want to hear from you. Where do you think the economy is going over the next 12 months? Is the economy going to grow or is the economy going to enter a downturn? I would love to hear your thoughts. Let me know in the comments and I can't wait to see what you have to say. America's entering a debt death spiral. However, when debts rise relative to incomes on a chronic basis for a long time, so as it rises right now for the US government, it's almost a trillion dollars a year that goes to interest payments. So it's sort of like plaque that narrows that and it's a problem.