It Happened! SpaceX Gwynne Shotwell revealed Starship HLS Update Shocked China & NASA

I talked to their leadership team yesterday, talked to Glenn. They feel very comfortable on Starship. They feel like they're on page for the lander um on track. So, they they feel very good. >> NASA's acting admin Shawn Duffy just crushed all doubts about SpaceX's Starship HLS progress. Yes, this is unexpected. After recent setbacks with Starship, NASA's new acting admin didn't waste time. He went straight to SpaceX COO Gwyn Shotwell to get the real scoop on HLS, the key to sending humans back to the moon on Artemis 3. Surprisingly, what he heard instantly flipped his view on SpaceX's pace and made him confident HLS will hit the mark, dealing a serious blow to China's lunar dreams. So, what exactly did Gwyn say? Why could this spell serious trouble for China's lunar plans? Let's find out on today's episode of AlphaTech. The appointment of Transportation Secretary Shaun Duffy as NASA's acting administrator has sparked a lot of supporters and critics. It's understandable since with his political background and previous roles, many see him as lacking the deep technical and space science expertise NASA demands. But leadership isn't just about expertise. It's also about management skills and the ability to motivate teams so everyone feels valued and ready to work together. Even before officially taking the job, Duffy has been pushing hard on the Aremis program, NASA's plan to send astronauts back to the moon and eventually Mars. Recently, he fired up the space race again by saying, "America must dominate space and our critical moon mission. Aremis must be as known and supported by America just as Apollo was. It's a race to the moon. Duffy reinforced his support for Artemis on a TV show highlighting its three phases. Returning to the moon, establishing lunar bases or outposts, and man missions to Mars. With strong public approval for Artemis, Duffy seems to be following a solid political strategy. The key now is delivering on his plans on schedule. Luckily, Artemis 2, the crude mission orbiting the moon, is set for early 2026, a crucial chance to prove he's the right person for the job. On the flip side, science journalist Robert Zimmerman criticized Duffy for confidently stating on TV that Aremis 3, the next lunar landing, could still happen in 2027. Given the current problems with SpaceX's Starship, many doubt that timeline is realistic. To prove his critics wrong, Duffy quickly set up a private meeting with the SpaceX hls team, including CEO Gwyn Shotwell, to verify whether SpaceX's progress was truly on track. It was a tough moment for both SpaceX and NASA, with Elon Musk's company facing setbacks from Flight 7 through Flight 9, and NASA dealing with budget cuts and major staffing losses. Luckily, what Duffy saw firsthand convinced him that the $4.04 04 billion NASA invested in SpaceX's HLS project was totally worth it. Speaking happily to the press when asked about concerns over recent Starship issues, Shawn Duffy said, "I talked with the leadership team yesterday and they seem very confident about Starship. If you're on the same page about the lander being on track, they feel really good. They said that if there's any holdup for Artemis 3, it's not going to be because of them." Sure, if this came from Elon Musk, it might sound overly optimistic, but when it comes from Gwyn, it's usually spoton. With that level of confidence, we're now in a better position to see how they'll make landing humans on the moon again, more than 5 decades after Apollo 17, a reality by 2027. Honestly, just saying that gives me chills because it's the moment I've been waiting for. So, is SpaceX really on track like they say? First, let's look at what SpaceX is doing to gear up for rapid progress. They're currently working on flights 10 and 11, the last two for Starship Block 2. Every bit of data from these will be super valuable for improving the Starship HLS version. Alongside new pairs of boosters and block 3 ships, we can expect at least three more test flights before the year ends. If those succeed, SpaceX will have a solid foundation to ramp up launches in 2026, running three launch pads simultaneously, two at Starbase and one in Florida. Plus, ULA's SLC 37 is being cleared for SpaceX to build another Starship launchpad, likely finished by late 2026 or early 2027. It'll be built to hls standards, conveniently near Kennedy Space Center for easier launches and mission support. Right now, SpaceX just needs one successful orbital test flight with Starship Block 3, possibly by mid 2026. Then they could move on to an uncrrewed test landing in the second half of 2026 before starting real missions, a crucial step toward delivering cargo and eventually astronauts to the moon. Backing up the timeline, on April 30th last year, NASA tested the Axiom extra vehicular mobility unit space suit for the first time with a full-scale Starship HLS mockup. The results were very promising, providing valuable feedback on the cabin space deck and elevator, ensuring astronauts have enough room to move comfortably. By early 2025, this module appeared inside Starac at Starbase, showing assembly is well underway. If all goes as planned, we could see a complete Starship HLS version as soon as next year. This upcoming model stands tall at about 55 m while keeping the same 9 m diameter. That extra height not only boosts fuel capacity, but also creates more room for the crew module. Thanks to this design, Starship HLS can stay in lunar orbit for up to 100 days, giving it the flexibility to sync up with Orion or the Gateway station station, especially if there are mission delays. Next, compared to the regular Starship, the HLS packs in five large solar arrays, each about 18 m long. These provide stable power for navigation, communication, thermal control, and even the elevator system. Arranged around the hole, the panels can extend and tilt to soak up sunlight efficiently, whether orbiting the moon or on its surface. They deliver tens of kilowatts of power, tough enough to withstand harsh solar radiation and space dust, making the ship more independent and easing the load on backup batteries. Speaking of design changes, Starship HLS ditches the control flaps and heatresistant ceramic tiles, swapping them for a reflective white paint. Since it won't be re-entering Earth's atmosphere, those heavy flaps and tiles aren't needed, cutting weight. The white paint reflects sunlight, keeping fuel tanks colder and reducing boil off of liquid oxygen and methane during long missions. Its physics in action, lighter colors absorb less heat, which is crucial in space. For maneuvering, HLS relies on reaction control thrusters combined with dedicated landing engines to stabilize and guide itself in lunar orbit and during moon landings. Now onto the crew experience. The number of windows jumps from 4 to 10, giving astronauts a wider view during critical phases like landing, surface activities, and takeoff. These pressurerresistant windows also protect against radiation and micrometeoroids and are strategically placed around the crew cabin for maximum visibility. To improve landing precision and safety, the number of landing engines or hot gas thrusters increases from 12 to 18. These smaller thrusters provide better control, offer redundancy in case of failures, and reduce the dusty blast that could damage equipment. They have already been tested on the ground and are fine-tuned for delicate maneuvers. Finally, the biggest upgrade, Starship HLS includes an elevator running down its 55 m height from the crew module at the nose to the lunar surface. This elevator safely transports astronauts in bulky space suits and heavy equipment like rovers or samples. It's a mechanical marvel built to endure the moon's harsh environment powered by solar arrays or backup batteries. As you might remember, SpaceX successfully tested this elevator using Axiom Spac's space suits, proving it works smoothly. When a groundbreaking vehicle like SpaceX's Starship HLS is launched, it will mark the end of China's ambitions on the moon, let alone Mars. We all know how much the moon means to China. Not just economically, but because the space race represents a nation's overall progress in science, technology, and history. China aims to surpass the US and become the world's leading power. Their lunar exploration program began in 2004 with a three-phase plan, orbit, land, and return. They've reached significant milestones, including returning lunar samples to Earth with Chong A5 in 2020 and sharing those samples with several countries. However, the US is excluded due to the Wolf Amendment, which prohibits NASA from directly collaborating with China over security concerns. Despite knowing this restriction, China publicly claims to share samples with the US, a gesture that may conceal other motives. Ultimately, their goal is to land astronauts on the moon before 2030 using the Lanu lander launched by the Long Mar rocket. And from what I know, they're serious about this. Just yesterday, a Chinese rocket news site reported that Long March 10 is gearing up for its second static fire test. The first test happened back in June last year, and footage showed its engines roaring with power, rivaling SpaceX's Superheavy booster. But honestly, their technology still has a long way to go compared to SpaceX. SpaceX's Superheavy Block 3 clearly outshines China's Long March 10 in many ways, showing just how serious SpaceX is about leading the space race. Standing 71 meters tall, packing 33 powerful Raptor 3 engines, and boasting a massive thrust of 7,590 tons, Super Heavy Block 3 can lift way heavier loads, roughly 150 tons to low Earth orbit, and 100 tons to lunar orbit, dwarfing Long Mars, 70 and 27 tons, respectively. If you're a true Starship fan and want to see this 120 meter monster roar into the sky from Starbase, mark your calendar for August 24th in Bokhica, Texas. Make sure you get there before 6:00 p.m. SpaceX has set the launch window for 6:30 p.m. This flight promises to be full of surprises because SpaceX has completely changed the plan. As I mentioned, ship 37 and booster 16 are being pushed to their limits, and there's a high chance it could end with a bang. But before we dive into that, let's check out a major move between SpaceX and the FAA. Just yesterday afternoon, the FAA announced that their requested investigation into SpaceX's Starship flight, 9 anomaly, has wrapped up. There were no reports of public injuries or damage to public property. The FAA monitored and approved the investigation led by SpaceX. The final anomaly report pinpointed the root cause of the lost Starship as a fuel system failure. SpaceX also identified corrective actions to prevent this from happening again. They emphasized that SpaceX can now proceed with Starship Flight 10 launch operations under its current license. Right after the FAA announcement, SpaceX released a superdetailed report on the results of Starship Flight 9, including the cause of the explosion. But we'll get to that later. What we've all been waiting for is the exact launch schedule. And this time, it looks solid. No delays like before, so you can relax. But that's not all. They also dropped a pretty surprising plan for Starship Flight 10's mission. So now, let's dive in and break it down. All right, we've got the direct report straight from SpaceX's website and it's split into two parts covering ship 37 and booster 16. Let's start with ship 37. Unlike previous flights, ship 37 is planned to be pushed to its limits with some bold goals like slightly exceeding low orbit to deploy eight dummy Starlinks, which are the exact same size as real Starlinks. By the way, does anyone here use Starlink internet? Just a side question, this is considered a risky move because so far no Starship flight has reached the ideal altitude to deploy Starlinks around 210 km above Earth. Starship flight 9 got to 189 km, but that still wasn't enough due to pressure issues that caused it to shake, spin, and go out of control. Even though it didn't hit the target altitude, the PZ doors opened, but engine problems meant only about a third of them were actually deployed. For ship 37, SpaceX has made a series of upgrades to optimize the PEZ doors so they can handle the harsh conditions of space. They're aiming to surpass ship 35's altitude record. And if all goes smoothly, they could push up to 230 km, a perfect height for Starlink deployment. Do you think ship 37 can make it? If yes, cheer it on by commenting go ship 37 below. Here's a fun fact. Once the Starlinks are deployed, they use ion engines, usually running on krypton, to adjust their orbit, eventually reaching an operational altitude of about 550 km or roughly 340 mi. Some satellites operate slightly lower or higher, like 540 km or 570 km, depending on their cluster. But Flight 10's mission doesn't stop there. Reigniting a single Raptor vacuum engine while in space is on the agenda. This is a crucial test for performing retropulsion burns. Basically slowing down and saving fuel when approaching a planetary surface like Mars in the future. The engines don't run all the time. They only fire to adjust speed and orientation, helping the ship avoid hazards like asteroids. Plus, Mars has a thin atmosphere, so you can't rely solely on arrow braing like we do on Earth. As I mentioned in the previous episode, SpaceX has removed hundreds of ceramic heat shield tiles around the body and on all four flaps. In some areas, they even stripped a whole row, leaving the stainless steel exposed. This is to stress test the most vulnerable spots during re-entry. That means the stainless steel beneath will face extreme temperatures up to 1,600° C or higher while plunging back through Earth's atmosphere. The goal to see how the ship holds up if a few tiles go missing. And here's the really interesting part. SP X has confirmed that multiple metallic tile options, including one with active cooling, will be tested to explore alternative ways to protect Starship during re-entry. Functional catch fittings are installed on the sides to evaluate both thermal and structural performance. One section of the tile line has been smoothed and tapered to address hot spots observed during flight 6. Starship's re-entry profile is deliberately designed to push the structural limits of the upper stages rear flaps at the point of maximum dynamic pressure. So in this flight, we'll get to see whether the flaps can actually maneuver under these extreme conditions, especially in areas where tiles were removed. If things go wrong, the flaps could partially melt, throwing off balance and boom, ship 37 could explode in midair if fire reaches the fuel tanks. But the odds are low. SpaceX's real target is to bring ship 37 safely through re-entry and achieve a controlled splashdown, collecting valuable data on metallic heat shields and how the ship fares when pushed to the limits. That's the plan for ship 37. But what about booster 16? Well, its mission plan is even more thrilling. On flight 9, SpaceX tried and failed to land booster 14 using a steeper attack angle. A higher angle slows the descent, meaning the booster needs less fuel for the landing burn, a tweak that could significantly improve efficiency for future missions. By testing how the booster handles aerodynamic forces at these steeper angles, engineers hope to fine-tune flight control systems and optimize overall vehicle performance. But reality didn't cooperate. As booster 14 approached the designated landing zone in the Gulf, it reignited 12 out of 13 central and mid-ring Raptor engines for the landing burn. Communication was lost immediately after ignition, and the booster experienced an unplanned rapid disassembly just 6 minutes after liftoff, cutting short the first flight of a Superheavy. The data SpaceX needed never made it back. Enter booster 16. As a completely new booster, SpaceX is clearly taking the opportunity to retry and replicate that critical experiment under extreme aerodynamic conditions. This time with a slowed, high angle approach. They'll be closely monitoring how the fuel lines handle pressure, how the Raptor 3 engines perform, and how the Block 3 booster design can be improved. However, the website notes the superheavy booster will attempt these experiments while on a trajectory to an offshore landing point in the Gulf of America and will not return to the launch site for catch. And you know, landing in the ocean with a vehicle not designed for it is extremely risky. If the engines fail to reignite, the booster would fall freely from 70 km at around 1,171 m/s. Boom! A massive explosion, scattering metal debris everywhere. SpaceX could even face multi-million dollar lawsuits if it lands in Mexican waters. It's a real possibility because this is SpaceX we're talking about. After stage separation, the booster will flip along a controlled trajectory before starting the retro propulsion burn. This maneuver was first demonstrated on flight 9 and requires less fuel reserve, freeing up more propellant for the ascent to orbit, allowing more payload to be delivered. One of the three center engines will be deliberately disabled during the final landing burn to collect data on whether a spare engine from the mid-ring can complete the burn. The booster will then rely on just two central engines for the final landing burn hovering like a helicopter above the Gulf before shutting down and splashing down. If successful, SpaceX will have shown that with only two of 33 Raptor 2 engines, it can keep 300 tons of metal hovering in the air. A truly impressive feat. That's all the plans laid out for Starship Flight 10. But are you curious about SpaceX's report on flight 9? Let me break it down. Booster 14 came in at a much steeper angle than any previous flight, peaking at about 17°. This wasn't by accident. SpaceX wanted to see just how far the booster could be pushed. As it neared the landing zone, it reignited 12 out of 13 engines for the landing burn. Right after ignition, there was a big energy spike near the tail. And then telemetry was lost. The last data came in around 382 seconds into flight, about 1 kilometer above the target area. What likely caused the fire? The booster structure, especially the fuel lines, took more stress than expected from that steep angle. The loads were just too much, letting methane and liquid oxygen mix. And boom, a fire broke out. For the next tests, SpaceX plans to reduce the landing angle, lowering aerodynamic stress and giving the booster a safer shot at touchdown. Now, let's talk about ship 35. About 3 minutes after stage separation, sensors in the nose cone started picking up steadily rising methane levels. That trend kept going until roughly 5 minutes after ignition when the main fuel tank pressure suddenly dropped. While the nose cone pressure shot up, Starship systems kicked in compensating for the pressure drop and completing the boost to altitude. It reached the expected speed and performed a seco second engine cutoff without missing a beat. But after engine shutdown, the high nose cone pressure combined with venting caused a big altitude error. The error kept growing until the automated fault system shut down the vent. Because of this, Starship skipped its payload deployment target. High nose cone pressure had created too much load for the payload doors to open properly. The ship slowly corrected its altitude using reaction control thrusters until venting resumed as planned. About 40 seconds later, onboard cameras showed liquid methane seeping into the nose cone and temperatures on several sensors and controllers started to drop. This triggered Starship's automated safing commands, skipping the space burn and dumping all remaining fuel safely into space. The final telemetry came in about 46 minutes after launch when the ship was around 59 km up over its designated approach area in the Indian Ocean. The most likely root cause of losing the upper stage, a failure in the main fuel tank's pressurization diffuser. Onboard cameras caught a clear fault in the diffuser box inside the nose cone right at top the forward dome of the main tank. Pre-flight analysis hadn't predicted it, but SpaceX engineers were able to recreate the failure under test conditions back at their McGregor, Texas facility. So, are you excited to see these improvements in action? If you are, make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, and don't miss Starship Flight 10. See you there.