Will China become the world's leading economic power?

The US has been the world's leading economy for over a century. And the new president is trying to defend this position with tariffs and protectionism. But China has been playing catch-up for 20 years. Will China soon become the world's leading economy? The Chinese dragon versus the American eagle. Who will win? So there are several projections and forecasts which say that China could become the world's leading power, potentially surpassing the US. And there are these areas like nominal GDP, exports, bank reserves, technological leadership in fields such as artificial intelligence, solar and wind power, and electric vehicles. First, gross national product. By that measure, the US is the most powerful economy in the world, with a GNP of 29 trillion US dollars, compared to just 18 trillion dollars in China. This means that a third fewer services and goods are bought or sold there than in the US. Second, China's diplomatic offensive versus Trump's protectionism. The US government is imposing tariffs on China, the main importer of goods to the US, between 10 and 50 percent, depending on the product. China wants to compensate for this and now exports more goods to other trading partners. In 2025, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited several countries including Africa and markets in the global south. So China has been quite proactive in using diplomacy to counter all these tariffs which now come from the US. A handshake between China's President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the SCO summit in Beijing in September 2025. China wants to win new trading partners through diplomacy. But also develop the Chinese role as the one leader that is speaking on behalf of the global south and representing global south because China is the strongest nation with the capacity to counter global north. Third, China is already a world leader in many areas of the global economy. It's the number one in the world when it comes to the quantity of goods produced. The People's Republic leads with over 27 percent, followed by the US with 17 percent, Japan and Germany, and India with almost 3 percent. And China is also in first place when it comes to export surpluses. It has trade surpluses with around 150 countries. It has a 989 billion US dollar trade surplus, followed by Germany, Russia, the Netherlands, and Ireland with 98 billion US dollars. And then there are also the largest cash reserves. China. I like China. I love China. The biggest bank in the world is from China. With over 3 trillion US dollars, China has the largest foreign currency reserves in the world. But public debt amounts to around 88 percent of the GDP. This puts the People's Republic in the top group of indebted countries worldwide. Because the system of state capitalism subsidizes expensive future technology with billions of dollars. Certainly that has allowed them to pick a number of national champions and invest in them consistently at large scale over a long period of time. Fourth. This is why China is also a world leader in subsidized green technologies of the future. China now single-handedly produces about 80 percent of the solar panels in the world, 70 percent of wind products, and 60 percent of electric vehicles. The situation is different in the US, where the president has canceled the most important climate agreements and also cut subsidies for wind farms, relying instead on coal and increasing oil exports. I withdrew from the unfair Paris climate accord. It's called drill, baby, drill. Blocking foreign goods and ramping up oil exports could hurt the US if it wants to stay a global economic leader, experts warn. I think some of the new wind technologies, you know, solar PV, wind, battery storage, electric vehicles, this indeed, you know, represent the direction of the worst economic, but also low carbon transition. Fifth. But how will the race end? Where are the weaknesses in the Chinese economy? So on the energy front, I would bet a lot more on China's future than I would on America's. And that's, you know, I'd bet a lot more on America's for the financial front than I would on China's. China has an immense national debt. The economy is struggling with an aging population. The days of double-digit economic growth rates have been over for 10 years. Growth is currently estimated at 4 to 5 percent. China's prime economic days are now, unfortunately for China, it's over now. Given all the past policy mistakes which have happened from China economically, the current economy is in the doldrums. Many international companies are reluctant to invest in China because of the state's digital surveillance system, where individual liberties and trade secrets are under surveillance. This opens up new opportunities for many emerging countries, especially for India, the most populous country in the world, which is also a democracy and has a young population. Whether China will become the world's leading economic power is uncertain. Many signs indicate that countries like India will rise. It is therefore very likely that China and the U.S. will be replaced by new nations in an increasingly multipolar economic order.