Massive Shakeup Coming to Florida

The Florida housing market is in for a huge shake-up, and here's the weird thing. There is so many factors going one way and the other, and the way they're all starting to shape up right now makes it very, very hard to predict what that shake-up means exactly. Here's why. We just recently got a new report basically how jobs in the US went down dramatically in one month. Joblessness is up. So okay, you put that into consideration with inflation and how things have got more expensive, how especially in Florida, home prices have went up, insurance went up. It has come back down actually. A lot of people haven't talked about that, but it's came back down over the last year or so, and obviously property taxes, utilities have went up, and so affordability has become an issue and people losing jobs. Now here's the thing with Florida though that a lot of people don't talk about. There's a lot of people that move here that work here for sure, some doing remote work, but also there's a lot of people that buy in Florida, so our market's different because of this. They buy as second homes and or have lots of expendable money and are down here and retire or whatever the case may be. So being on a fixed income could be an issue if your prices go up too much for sure, but there's just also a lot of people that just buy their houses all cash. So our market's a little different in that regard. And a lot of the investors it feels like at this point that we're going to get out have already got out. There's probably a few that are still holding onto their properties. But the reason I wanted to talk about those factors is not just for that side of the equation, so that's one of the mixed signals, but the other mixed signal that's really interesting is obviously when those numbers such as joblessness going up and the amount of job creation going down and losing jobs, well, that means interest rates are probably coming down. And so what does that mean? And I think that's where the interesting part is and that's where it makes it really tricky to predict what is going to happen in Florida. And the reason for that is number one, obviously the more apparent thing is, well, yeah, it's going to get more affordable. Are people going to come flocking back in? And so this is an interesting thing. If you've been watching our channel for a little while now, you've seen me talk about how in the last few months we've seen like this steady increase of people looking to move to the area. And I think a lot of it was because one, people were like, okay, I kind of got a sense for where the market is. It's flattening out. Prices have come down enough to where I'm comfortable and, or I'm sick of waiting, you know, all kinds of different reasons, but we have been seeing increased activity. And so with interest coming down, you might say like, oh wow, if that's the case, are we going to see even more activity now? Also to put things in perspective, show how things are kind of like there's mixed signals depending on the area, the months of supply. So if you don't know what months of supply is, it's basically a metric that looks at supply and demand and gives you an idea where the market is at. So it's basically says if in this city, like Venice, for example, where I am right now, if no more homes came on the market, how many months would it take for the rest of the homes to sell if they continued selling at the rate that they're selling right now? So you know, how long, if no more homes coming on the market, would they all sell? And because of that, it's taking into account to supply, you know, how many homes are out there and how fast are they selling, which is the demand. And so a lot of people on these YouTube videos that try to talk about like crash and doom and the economy is terrible and that's all they ever talk about. They'll only talk about inventory because it's easier to paint a certain picture, but it doesn't take into account the amount of homes that are actually being sold. So that's the number I always like to look at. And so depending on the market, some are sitting closer to like six months or more, and then there's other, which would be a buyer's market, meaning you can get a better deal and get it well below asking price typically. But there's some and quite a few in the areas we serve, like Northport, parts of Inglewood, some parts of Venice where the months of supply is dipping closer to like three and a half, four months of supply at the time of filming this, you know, that could change, but that is generally considered closer to being more of a seller's market, meaning they're going to get closer to asking price, maybe above asking price. That's not what we've actually seen yet because it's like one of those indicators that usually takes a little time for people to catch up to and understand, oh wait, there's more stuff or less stuff on the market, you know, depending on the months of supply. And so it takes a little while for the, you know, average list price to what it's actually bought for to change. And to give a little bit more of a full picture on that, to give you an overall sense, usually the areas we're seeing where that months of supply is coming down and it's becoming a little bit more competitive and more of a seller's market is the areas where the median sale price sits closer to like below 400,000, I'd say about 350,000 and less. And that's where things are starting to get a little more competitive. So those areas, it seems like, okay, there's more, you know, competition, places are selling a little bit quicker. There's less on the market. And now if interest comes down, now it's going to make it even more affordable. Are we going to see people start, you know, having bidding wars and things like that again? And I think that's a possibility, but back to this whole mixed signal thing. One of the biggest things that we know and have been hearing about, if you've read any headlines in the last couple of years is a lot of people don't want to sell or can't sell their home because they got their home at such a low interest rate or refinanced to a low interest rate when they were down to like 3%. Like who wants to give that up? Well, if interest gets a little bit closer to, let's say 5%, maybe a little below 5%. Now that's maybe enough for some people to say, you know what? Okay. Yeah. I want to put my house on the market. And so if that's the case, we might see more places come onto the market and build inventory again. So that could be also a competing factor. It could drive more people into the market, but could also just put more stuff onto the market. And now maybe you see prices go down more along with interest going down. Again, I don't have a crystal ball because I don't know exactly how this is going to go. And I think this is going to be somewhat market dependent. And that brings me back to another point that I've made in a previous video that I think is also worth mentioning with this, because I think this is going to tie into how all this works out. And it's this. In the beginning of the video, you saw me mention, hey, insurance has actually started to come down in some places. The median sale price over the last couple of years, and a lot of Florida has went down over the last couple of years. Some were dramatically than others. Some a little more stable, some maybe flat, but as a whole, we've seen things come down. And so that, you know, for new people looking to buy, could bring down property taxes and just, you know, with insurance coming down, people that are living here already too, if it becomes a little bit more affordable, maybe some of that drive for them to sell, whether they're an investor or someone that's living here full time, it gets a little bit lower, you know? Like, okay, you know what? Things are a little bit more manageable now. But again, on the other side, inflation has made everything else so much more expensive. Energy costs have went up, you know, so that adds into the equation. So there's all these weird mixed signals. And so the reason I'm pointing all this out, you're going to say like, well, Jesse, you're not really making a case one way or the other. What's going on? Like, what am I supposed to be getting out of this video? And what you're supposed to be getting out of this video is that. There's so many people on YouTube right now that are making these, every video they do is negative. It's doom and gloom. Things aren't affordable. And I'm not disagreeing that the economy market is bad as far as inflation and things like that goes. I'm not arguing that home prices have got crazy and unaffordable here. Like some of these channels have been doing this since 2019 and saying places are going to crash in 2019. And then they went crazy up until about 2022, 2023. And then they'll tell you it's, oh, it's a great time to buy now. And like they've named some markets, oh, it's actually a decent time to buy now in like St. Pete. Yeah. They said like six months ago. And it's just like, dude, the prices are like twice of when you said in 2019 they were going to crash, you know, but you could see how some of these channels kind of have this narrative that they're only going to find those things because they realize negativity is what draws views. And so I, as you, if you've watched any videos, any amount of time now, I also realized there's a lot of realtors. They'll make it seem like everything's sunshine and rainbows and we don't have problems in Florida or they just won't talk about it. And I want to make sure like both sides of the equation are being presented. And especially right now in such a weird, tricky market where things have come down. We've always said on this channel, and if you don't, when I, when I say we, that means me and my wife, Hades, who's been in a lot of the videos as well. By the way, if you're looking to buy or sell a home anywhere from Sarasota down to port Charlotte, Inglewood areas, or the entire Orlando Metro, we know these areas very well. And we've helped a lot of people avoid mistakes, save a lot of money and get answers to questions that are impossible to find online. And we'd love to help you to get ahold of us at 941-221-1897. Our team would love to help you. But I want to make sure I'm presenting both sides. So you, when you decide, Oh, I want to move here and you get a hold of us, you have a good sense for what the reality is of what to expect with the market, with what places are going for, what the pros and cons of different neighborhoods are, what the things are to look out for in a home, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And so that's why I'm giving you like, there's some very mixed signals right now where this market could go in the next six months to year here. We could see prices shoot up. I would not count it up. I would also not count out places going really down. I also would not count out places staying flat. I do not have a crystal ball. And the reason I'm being so undecisive on what's going to happen is number one, again, I don't want to have an agenda like a lot of these YouTube channels where it's just like they're going to make the negative story no matter what, they're going to find the negative story. But I also don't want to make it seem like, Oh, for sure this is what's going to happen because realistically right now I understand the economy is not looking good just because of inflation for how long, uh, some of the recent jobs numbers, you know, we don't know how things are going to be affected with the tariffs. Like there's so many unresolved things that we, we don't know how those are going to go, you know, how the economy as a whole is going to go. And that is going to affect real estate. It's going to affect interest rates. And then when those interest rates get affected, we don't know how that's going to affect Florida because we, again, it seems like a lot of the investors have got a lot of the open door homes that used to be in the market in Florida. They're out. There's not a lot on open door anymore. Obviously they're not the only investor. There's a lot of other investors, but it feels like a lot of that has already got out of the market. So the question is how, you know, how much inventory is waiting to be sold out there yet anymore? How many people have been actually still holding onto properties because of that lock in effect on the interest rate. So when that interest rate goes down, like, are we going to see a flood of supply? I think we might see some more, but I also think we're going to see more demand. And the question is, which is going to be bigger and better? Which is going to be stronger? I don't know. And again, then you also put into the factor of what's the average American's spending power look like? You know, are they employed? What's the cost of living? Like there's so many pieces that go into all of that. And so overall, I would say, you know, all things considered, we've always said correction, not crash in this area. And what we meant by that is the market, let's see, I always got to do this backwards. Yeah. For you, it would be this way. This line just kept going here. We think, you know, that that's when it gets to here, it's just going to keep going. And basically what it did is this, it went up and we think it was going to come back down to that long-term norm of a line and continue. We didn't think this was going to be like, oh wait, what happened in 08 is instead of the line being this, it went like this and then it went like this. And then it came back up. We don't think it's going to do that big down. And with the way things are looking right now, I really don't know. And I think we're going to have a much better sense of that in the next six months or so when we see what happens with tariffs, how those things affect things, what inflation is looking like, what joblessness is looking like and what the interest rates are looking like. And you got to put all that into a big pot and then also look at is the entire economy going to crash? Is it going to stabilize? I don't know. But I think that's like this one big underlying factor that is going to dramatically decide what the housing market does in Florida and the United States for that matter. That being said, like I said, it seems like a lot of the people that wanted to get out already got out of Florida. It seems like we've seen demand pick up to begin with. So I would not count out interest rates coming down, driving more people to want to buy here. You might see some people say, okay, yeah, you know what? That's enough for me to make a move now out of the area too. And maybe some more supply comes on the market because of that. But as a whole, assuming there's not this huge economic crash and people are having a hard time getting by, you know, even harder than it already has been the last few years, then I don't see things making this major crash here. I know that's not what a lot of people want to hear. And I know they might think I might be biased and have an agenda. Honestly, if things crashed here and went really, really affordable, I would actually probably prefer it. You know, maybe I could pick up an investment property myself or make a move if I wanted to make a move. And on top of that, like a lot of people look at it as like, oh, the greedy realtors, they just want the home prices to go up. So they make more. And it's like, not really, at least not for us. We just want, first of all, first and foremost, we want people to be happy. We want to know that they made the right move. They got their questions answered and everything to work out as good as it possibly can be because there's so many dynamics and pieces that go into buying a home and it's a huge investment, of course. But one thing a lot of people don't consider when they talk about that, they don't understand like when things were crazy during COVID, there was a lot of realtors doing a lot of work and there was a lot of homes moving, but there was also a lot of people looking to buy. So there's a lot of realtors doing all this work, putting in offers. Yeah, the prices went up, but a lot of the offers weren't getting accepted. So they were doing a lot of work not to actually like sell a home. And so if prices come down and affordability comes down and there's maybe not a huge pandemonium of rush of buyers in, the realtors can sell more homes and now more realtors can have a business that they can keep going. Like a lot of realtors go out of business when things get rough, like in the market right now, there's just not as many people looking to move to the area as there was. Like I said, the last few months, it seems like things have picked up, but as a whole the last couple of years, I'm sure there's a lot of realtors that quit because they just weren't making sales. And so it's not necessarily about how much they're going to make for a home. It's more about can they get a home sold? So we would personally rather prices come down, more people can afford and more homes get sold. And in my opinion, that's a win for everyone. You get something a little more affordable and we can help more people move to the area and business can be a little more steady and consistent. You know what I mean? But again, like I said, we've been pretty crazy busy the last couple of months to begin with. But yeah, at the end of the day for us, seeing prices go crazy, we're just like, no. This is making it harder for people to move to the area. And the cost of living goes up for everyone too. The realtors that are selling these homes also live in these areas, so their expenses are also going up. You know what I mean? So I don't want you to think I'm having some biased opinion on this. I'm just trying to, again, give you ground level what I'm seeing, macro data what I'm seeing, looking at all the factors and putting everything into consideration. And instead of just giving a doom and gloom, everything's always going to be bad in my videos, or everything's going to be great, give a little bit of more of a nuanced perspective and look at both sides. So yeah, I think we are in for a interesting next six months to year. I think overall, if I have to make a prediction, I think we're going to see the market get a little more competitive maybe in Florida. Again, this is such a wild card with the economy, joblessness, inflation. And so I can't tell you how that is going to go for sure. But I mean, if anything is an indication with the way we've been seeing business pick up in some of these lower price areas to begin with. And then now interest rates coming down, probably coming down. At the time of filming this, it's not 100% confirmed, but everyone's like, okay, yeah, now with the new joblessness numbers and the job creation numbers going down, it's pretty sure thing that we're going to see interest rates going down. And by the time this comes out, this video comes out, maybe at that point, the interest already has come down. But I think we might see things get a little more competitive. Don't take this as me saying, oh yeah, this is going to be like the COVID boom all over again. I don't think we're going to see bidding wars and places going crazy above asking and inspections being waived and all that kind of stuff and waiting lists at the new construction homes and all that. There's definitely been enough downward pressure for a while now that has tempered things considerably. Resale homes still really have to compete with new construction, which they're trying to keep units selling to keep their stock prices up and things like that. And so there's some amazing deals to be had with new construction right now. In fact, in a lot of cases, it's a better deal than buying resale homes and that's bringing downward pressure on resale homes. So I mean, if you put all that together, I don't think we're going to see things go crazy. But if interest rates do take some pretty big drops over the next six months, that could bring some competition back to Florida as a whole. And I think we'll see more of a flattening of prices, maybe a slight uptick again. We will see, I don't know for sure, because again, if interest rates come way down, but inflation goes way up and a lot of people aren't employed and we have a big economic crash and that's a whole wrench in all of that. Then all my predictions are off. But again, if you are looking to buy or sell a home from Sarasota down to Port Charlotte, Inglewood areas, or the entire Atlanta Metro, get a hold of our team at 941-221-1897. We know the areas very well. We would love to help you avoid mistakes, get answers to questions that are impossible to find online and help you save as much money as possible. And if you want to know more about moving to Florida, check out this video right here. Thanks for watching. I live breezy.