SpaceX's Plan To Reach The Moon after Starship Flight 11! Petagon Huge Contract...Space Weekly #16

SpaceX's plan to reach Mars next year has been revealed alongside another major Pentagon contract win at Starbase. Repairs to Pad 1 are underway after Flight 11 and a shorter stubby Starship variant is being developed for lunar missions. Let's explore this week's biggest updates in this episode of Great SpaceX. first mission to Mars. That is exactly what Musk has hinted could happen as soon as next year. But the question remains, how can this be achieved when Starship still has so many goals left to accomplish? Let's not forget that SpaceX has already outlined a plan for 25 launches next year from Starbase. And it's very likely that they have mapped out a specific route to Mars as part of that plan. So, what will SpaceX's journey to Mars look like in the coming year? and what preparations still need to be made. Musk has once again shaken the spaceflight community with a bold revelation. The first mission to Mars may be closer than we think. According to Musk, the mission that carries an Optimus payload is guaranteed within 3 and 1/2 years. However, he has also admitted that there is a slim but real possibility that this groundbreaking mission could take place as early as the end of next year. The idea alone has electrified space enthusiasts worldwide. But it raises a critical question. How could SpaceX possibly achieve this when Starship still has so many hurdles to overcome? Musk himself has acknowledged that a lot needs to go right for this to happen. And he is absolutely correct. At present, Starship has not yet reached orbit, has not deployed a real payload, has not mastered full two-stage recovery, and has not built or tested the complex orbital refilling system. All of these milestones are not just optional, but absolutely necessary to carry out a Mars mission. Each one must be completed within the very short time frame of next year if Musk's ambitious vision is to be realized. Yet, as impossible as that may sound, there is a plan. SpaceX has already stated that beginning in 2026, they intend to launch up to 25 missions per year from Starbase. That rate of activity is unlike anything seen before in the space industry. If achieved, it would open the door for rapid iteration, frequent testing, and the ability to check off those key milestones in quick succession. In fact, leaked suggestions and internal timelines have hinted at how these 25 flights could unfold. And when pieced together, they outline a plausible road map to Mars. Let us walk through what this plan might look like. Flight 11 is expected to be very similar to flight 10. It'll serve as a final Gen 2 test before SpaceX transitions to the much anticipated version 3 hardware. That brings us to flight 12, which is likely to be the first V3 mission. SpaceX insiders suggest that this flight will not attempt orbit, but rather focus on testing the major upgrades incorporated into the new version. Originally, SpaceX had hoped to launch Flight 12 before the end of this year. But given the slow progress on both the vehicles and the ground systems, it's increasingly likely that flight 12 will slip into next year. This means that either flight 12 or 13 will effectively mark the beginning of the 25 flight push in 2026. Musk has revealed that catching both stages is one of the immediate priorities, which sets the stage for flight 13 through 15. Flight 13 could be the pivotal mission where SpaceX attempts to catch both the booster and the ship. For this to happen, Starship must first demonstrate that it can reach orbit, so the stakes could not be higher. If successful, flight 14 may focus exclusively on refining the catch process, while flight 15 could mark the first time a payload is deployed into orbit. At that point, three critical goals would be accomplished. Orbit, reusability through stage recovery, and orbital payload deployment. With those benchmarks behind them, SpaceX will be ready to turn its attention to the most challenging step of all, building and proving the orbital refilling system. The first refilling demonstrations could occur as early as flights 16 and 17. In these missions, SpaceX would launch two Starships, one serving as the target and the other as the chaser. They would attempt to dock in orbit and transfer fuel, marking the very first time such an operation has ever been attempted. This would be a historic milestone not only for SpaceX but for space exploration as a whole. If docking and small-cale transfer are successful, the next logical step would be the deployment of an orbital fuel depot on Flight 18. The depot would act as a storage hub in low Earth orbit ready to fuel Marsbound Starships. Given that a single Starship requires approximately 1,600 tons of propellant and can only carry about 100 tons per launch, it would take around 16 tanker flights to fully stock the depot. That means flights 19 through 34 could be dedicated almost entirely to tanker runs. With the depot fully fueled and Starship ready, flight 35 would finally attempt the historic journey to Mars. Starship would dock with the depot, take on its full propellant load, and begin the monthsl long journey to the red planet. By this outline, SpaceX would require 23 missions from flight 13 through flight 35 to complete the entire Mars preparation process. Even if flight 12 slips into next year, that still leaves them with 24 of the 25 planned missions, giving them one extra flight to spare. However, there is also the possibility of accelerating the timeline if SpaceX takes a bolder approach. For example, if SpaceX succeeds in catching both stages on Flight 13 while also reaching orbit, they could combine multiple milestones into a single mission. That would advance the schedule by one flight across the board. In that scenario, payload deployment could occur on flight 14. Refilling demonstrations could be carried out on 15 and 16. The depot could be launched on 17. Tankers would run from 18 through 33, and the Mars mission could happen on flight 34. That version of the plan would require just 22 flights from 13 onward or 23 flights in total if flight 12 is pushed to next year. In other words, it could leave two spare missions available within the 25 flight schedule. In both scenarios, the math shows that it is theoretically possible for SpaceX to prepare for a Mars mission within the framework of 25 launches. If they can sustain a rate of two to three launches per month, then reaching Mars by the end of next year is within the realm of possibility. It would require flawless execution, rapid learning, and near-perfect results. But it's not beyond imagination, especially given SpaceX's track record of doing what many once thought impossible. Of course, reality is rarely as clean as a theoretical road map. There will almost certainly be delays, failures, and unexpected challenges. But Musk's aggressive timelines are not just about setting goals. They are about pushing his teams and the entire space industry to move faster, take risks, and innovate at a pace that keeps humanity on the frontier. So, what do you think? Can SpaceX truly carry out this audacious plan and send Starship to Mars as early as next year? Let me know with a yes or a no in the comments, and be sure to share your thoughts. Also, don't forget to like the video and subscribe to our channel to stay up to date with the most ambitious journey of our time, humanity's first steps toward becoming a multilanetary species. Of course, achieving that ambitious timeline will still be an enormous challenge. Bold as it sounds, it rests on conditions that are far from guaranteed. Firstly, remember all these scenarios depend on every single flight going right. But in the world of rocketry, perfection is a rare luxury. Launching a brand new vehicle variant, getting the ship to orbit, bringing both stages back, and catching them with the giant Mechazilla arms, delivering payloads into orbit, and building and testing the orbital refilling system. Each of these systems is a monumental technical feat. Every mission carries risk and the reality is that even a small setback could push the schedule back significantly. If something fails, perhaps one or two backup missions won't be enough to compensate. Secondly, these plans also assume that SpaceX will pour all of its energy into the Mars campaign. But let's not forget the moon race is running in parallel. SpaceX must prepare for the uncrrewed lunar landing demo, a crucial step before NASA's Artemis program can send astronauts. That mission too will require orbital refilling if no alternate solution is found. The catch is clear. If SpaceX channels everything into Mars, progress toward the moon slows and vice versa. The company can't stretch infinitely, not when the number of flights and the production of hardware remain limited. The tugof warar between Mars and the moon will define SpaceX's priorities in the coming years. Thirdly, the cadence itself is a challenge of staggering proportions. So far, the best turnaround time between Starship flights has been 37 days, and that was between flights five and six. This year, flights are still separated by months, sometimes two or three. But to hit the Mars timeline, SpaceX must leap from its current pace to a rhythm of two to three launches every single month. That's not just difficult, it's revolutionary. To pull that off, every part of SpaceX's operation will need to accelerate. First comes production. The sheer number of vehicles required is immense. Most of the planned missions, especially the early refilling flights and Marsbound attempts, will not be reusable. Many ships and boosters will be expended. And that means SpaceX must roll out dozens of new vehicles in rapid succession. By rough estimates, about 20 prototype pairs may be needed, a number that dwarfs what we currently see in the Star Factory. Yes, nose cones and rings are being produced at speed, but not nearly enough for such a massive campaign. For SpaceX to sustain the pace, its Star Factory and stacking bays will need to run at full tilt without pause. Then there's testing. Every vehicle needs to undergo a sequence of rigorous trials before flight. At least three are standard. a cryogenic test of the super heavy booster, a cryogenic test of the Starship, and finally a static fire. These are conducted at Massie and at the launch site, and they cannot be skipped. But SpaceX's test infrastructure is still recovering from recent setbacks, such as the S36 incident, which damaged key facilities. To keep the campaign rolling, SpaceX must maintain an uninterrupted flow of tests and certifications. One delay here could cascade through the entire launch plan. Finally, the launch infrastructure itself must be fully ready. A Mars mission will require two stage recovery attempts, and that means both launch towers will need to be operational and reliable. At present, pad 2 is expected to shoulder most of the load, but it's not enough. Pad 1 requires significant upgrades, and the Kennedy Space Center's LC39A pad is still under development. Without at least two fully functioning launch sites, the cadence needed for Mars will be almost impossible, and transporting Starships to Florida remains a logistical challenge with progress still unclear. When you put it all together, the conclusion is inescapable. Launching Starship to Mars by next year is extraordinarily difficult. The plan is bold, visionary, and if successful, it would represent a breakthrough unlike anything humanity has seen before. a true leap toward making Mars attainable. It would also secure a decisive edge for the US in the great space race against China, which is itself preparing ambitious missions for the next decade. SpaceX faces real hurdles. Slow launch cadence, unfinished prototypes, and limited infrastructure. While Mars looms large, the moon program, vital for Artemis and geopolitics, cannot afford delays. Some argue a balanced approach is wiser. Prioritize the moon while pacing Mars. Musk has hinted at a broader window. Targeting 2028 to 2029, even aiming for 2027 keeps SpaceX ahead of China's Mars sample return plans. This measured timeline would allow production to scale, infrastructure to mature, and systems like orbital refilling to be refined, raising the odds of success. Whether the push comes next year or later, the next two years are decisive. Starship must prove reliable, fly often, and lay the foundation for interplanetary flight. The choices SpaceX makes now will define its legacy, whether through bold haste or careful preparation. Wow. SpaceX is set to continue outpacing its competitors for years to come, especially with its newly assigned mission under a Pentagon contract. The question now is whether Starship will soon play a role in that effort. We are now just about a week away from Starship Flight 11, and preparations are in full swing at both the launchpad and on the vehicle itself. The pad continues to undergo upgrades as SpaceX installs new systems following the removal of the old test hardware. B16 remains at rocket garden, waiting for its move to the launch site, while ship 38 appears to have completed its checkouts and is awaiting the installation of the dummy payloads and the flight termination system. Everything is gradually coming together for what could be another emotional and historic moment for SpaceX. Above all, what truly matters is that this upcoming flight succeeds. A successful mission will be crucial for SpaceX's momentum, especially now that the company has officially secured a major new contract from the Pentagon. Once again, SpaceX has proven its dominance, leaving its competitors ULA and Blue Origin trailing behind. As announced, SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin were all selected by the Pentagon and the US Space Force for the National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 2 contract. This agreement covers highly complex largecale missions that require absolute precision and reliability. Out of the total number of missions, SpaceX received 28 assignments, accounting for more than half of the total share. ULA has awarded 19 missions representing 35% while Blue Origin secured only seven missions or roughly 10%. The contracts will be distributed annually with specific missions assigned for each fiscal year. For the 2026 fiscal year, the distribution has already been made clear. SpaceX will take on five missions. ULA will handle two and Blue Origin will not receive any for that year. It's worth noting that these assignments do not mean the launches will occur immediately. Typically, missions are awarded several years in advance so that funding and preparations are to begin early. The current batch of contracts covers missions planned between 2025 and 2029 with actual launches scheduled to take place from 2027 through 2031. Before this announcement, the Space Force had already assigned one mission for fiscal year 2025. This distribution reflects the current progress and readiness of each company's rocket fleet. SpaceX continues to dominate with its highly reliable Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, both of which have been operational for years and have proven their capability through consistent performance. ULA's Vulcan rocket, despite facing several delays, has recently achieved launch certification, marking a significant milestone. On the other hand, Blue Origin's new Glenn has only launched once, and so far it has yet to be certified for regular service. The space systems command stated clearly that no missions were assigned to the third provider, Blue Origin, which has its next opportunity for a mission in fiscal year 2027. These numbers speak volumes about SpaceX's continued leadership in the launch market. In the fiscal year of 2025 allocation alone, SpaceX secured seven missions valued at $845.8 million, while ULA obtained just two missions worth 427.6 6 million. This significant difference highlights the growing confidence that both the Pentagon and the Space Force place in SpaceX's proven capabilities. Looking ahead, SpaceX's consistent performance will allow it to maintain a faster operational rhythm than its competitors. A large number of assigned missions means that SpaceX can distribute its workload efficiently, keeping its rockets, teams, and infrastructure in constant motion. Meanwhile, ULA and Blue Origin face the risk of building up backlogs if they do not reach stable flight operations soon. In terms of the actual missions, SpaceX's five assigned tasks for this delivery are quite significant. They include the USSF206 mission to deploy Boeing's 12th wideband global satcom communications satellite. three classified Space Force payloads designated USSF 105, 149, and 63, as well as the NR86 reconnaissance mission for the National Reconnaissance Office. For these five missions alone, SpaceX will receive $714 million. In comparison, ULA was awarded just two missions. USSF88 tasked with deploying four GPS3 follow-on satellites and NROL88, another reconnaissance mission. Combined, these bring in 428 million, considerably less than SpaceX's share. But the biggest difference goes beyond the number of launches, its cost efficiency. A major upgrade is on the horizon. That is what will take place after Flight 11, the mission we've all been waiting for. However, this improvement is not limited to the vehicle itself. SpaceX is also preparing significant upgrades to its ground systems with LP1 standing out as a prime example. Soon, we'll have to bid farewell to the pad design and mechanisms that have supported Starship's development for so many years. So, what exactly is SpaceX changing at the launchpad, and how will these upgrades shape the future of Starbase? This transition will not only bring changes to the rocket itself, but will also require significant updates to the infrastructure that supports it. The launchpad in particular will need to evolve to accommodate the next generation of Starship. That's why we've seen major redesigns taking place recently. Pad 2 at Starbase has been constructed in a completely new way compared to last year. and even the pad at Cape Canaveral's LC39A has undergone sudden and noticeable changes during its ongoing development. These updates signal a clear shift toward supporting the future V3 system and naturally pad 1 will also have to follow suit very soon. The first signs of this transformation became evident during the refurbishment that took place after the S38 test. One of the most noticeable changes was the removal of the damper installed inside the chopstick's mechanism. This damper, which functions through a spring-like system, helps to reduce the force and stress placed on the booster when it comes into contact with the landing rail. Its main role is to balance the impact, preventing excessive force from transferring throughout the entire chopsticks assembly and minimizing the risk of structural damage. Its main role is to balance the impact, preventing excessive force from transferring throughout the entire chopsticks assembly and minimizing the risk of structural damage. With this part now removed, it's clear that a new phase of evolution has begun. The removal took place before flight 11 because it does not affect this particular mission. For this flight, SpaceX will not attempt to catch the booster or ship. Instead, both stages will perform ocean splashdowns. As a result, the chopsticks will only be responsible for simpler operations such as lifting and holding the vehicles. This allows SpaceX to begin modifying the system without interfering with immediate launch plans. Looking ahead, this move will pave the way for faster upgrades in the near future. According to Musk, the Chopstick's current design is rather large and cumbersome, so shortening the two arms has already been considered a priority. This change can already be observed at pad 2, where the revised chopsticks are noticeably more compact and agile. During recent tests, the smaller design has proven to be far more flexible and responsive. However, the most significant upgrades will occur within the internal support systems, including the landing rails, stabilizers, and related mechanical structures. These components will need to be redesigned to align with the new Starship V3 configuration, particularly for the Super Heavy booster. Based on early reports, pad 1 is expected to specialize in catching the super heavy, while pad 2 will be primarily dedicated to handling the Starship upper stage. The new catching mechanism for Super Heavy will also be different. Instead of the independent catching points used in the current version, the future design will have the catching points integrated directly beneath the grid fins. This structural change will allow for a stronger and more controlled capture, further improving efficiency and safety. Below the launch tower, even more dramatic changes are expected. The current six-legged orbital launch mount, also known as the OM, will be completely dismantled. The steel water cooled plate, sometimes called the inverted shower, which has played a vital role in protecting the pad during test flights, will also be removed. Though these systems have served SpaceX well, their removal will make room for a brand new launch infrastructure built for greater power and durability. SpaceX will replace pad 1's old systems with a full flame trench to manage the intense exhaust from future Starship launches. The trench will be excavated near the tower lined with concrete fitted with flame buckets and integrated into the cooling and plumbing network. Once complete, engineers will build upper structures, including a new platform for the OOLM and a booster QD gantry for fueling and control. A new OM currently being assembled at the Sanchez site will follow the Pad 2 box-like design and be installed on the new foundation once ready. Unlike Pad 2, Pad 1 already has a tower, allowing SpaceX to begin construction directly from the lower sections and accelerate progress. Thanks to improved methods and experience, the full transformation could finish within a year, possibly by mid next year, with testing beginning in the third quarter. Upgrades for the chopsticks being simpler may be ready earlier for mid-air catch trials between flights 13 and 15. When complete, little of the original pad 1 may remain, but its legacy will endure. Since the SN8 campaign in 2020, it has supported every milestone of Starship's evolution. Now, as SpaceX advances to the V3 system and full reusability, Pad 1 must evolve, too, marking both an upgrade and a farewell to a historic era. In honor of Pad 1's journey, comment keep upgrading down below and be sure to follow us as we continue covering SpaceX's bold path toward the future of spaceflight. Now, I must say if Pad 1 represents the transition between two eras of Starship development, then Pad 2 stands as the pioneer of the new age. This site embodies SpaceX's forward momentum. Built from the lessons of the past, yet fully focused on supporting the next generation of Starship vehicles. In mid and late September, SpaceX conducted several important tests of the water deluge system installed within pad 2's flame trench. These tests demonstrated the systems ability to manage the intense exhaust energy from Starship's 33 Raptor engines. However, this is only the beginning. To prepare for the more powerful static fire tests involving real boosters, additional installations and system checks still need to be completed. Since the start of September, SpaceX teams have been working continuously to install and test the stabilizer arms on both sides of the chopsticks system. These arms play a crucial role in steadying the massive vehicle during lifting and capture operations. Once these components were installed, engineers began testing their performance under various load conditions to ensure they could safely handle the full weight and size of the Starship B3 prototypes. Following this, work shifted to the lower pad area where installation of cladding panels began around the booster QD gantry. These panels help enclose the QD framework, improving its structural integrity and providing better protection against debris and heat from launches. It appears that SpaceX waited until the QD systems were finally fitted before installing the panels, ensuring both mechanical and visual consistency across the structure. Despite this progress, there is still a significant amount of installation and testing to be done. SpaceX seems to be proceeding methodically, balancing construction tasks with system verification. Many observers predict that flight 12, the first mission using a Starship V3 prototype, could launch by the end of this year. However, there's also growing speculation that it might slip into early next year, depending on the pace of testing and certification. Either way, the timelines between late 2025 and early 2026 are expected to remain close. This means SpaceX will likely aim to complete all major testing on pad 2 by October and November. Two key components will be the primary focus during this phase. The chopsticks mechanism and the OM flame trench complex for chopsticks. Upcoming tests will focus on stability, accuracy, and lifting strength, particularly after the new stabilizer arms were added. These tests will determine whether the system is ready to attempt midair captures of the Starship upper stage, a feat expected to be trial between flight 13 and 15. Meanwhile, the OOLM and flame trench will undergo a series of static fire trials. These will be among the most critical steps before pad 2 becomes fully operational. It's likely that SpaceX will use a brand new V3 booster for these initial firings. Instead, a dedicated test tank or an older booster like B7 could be used. B7, which currently has no assigned mission due to the shift to V3 hardware, would be ideal for ground tests that push the new systems to their limits without risking flight ready hardware. Pad 2's progress clearly marks it as the leader of the new Starbase era. Yet, the changes extend far beyond the single launch complex. Across the facility, upgrades and construction efforts are reshaping every corner of SpaceX's South Texas operations. At the production site, the expansion of the new gigabay continues at a steady pace. The foundation appears to be completed and work on the main structural framework has begun with steel beams now being erected. This massive structure will serve as the primary assembly area for the upcoming larger Starship variants. It represents SpaceX's commitment to scaling up production for a future where multiple Starships are built and launched at a much faster rate. Meanwhile, activity at the Massie test site suggests that SpaceX is preparing to bring it back online after months of relative quiet. Earlier this month, two new cryogenic test stands were delivered to Massie. These stands are designed to support both ship and booster cryogenic tests and appear optimized for the new V3 models. The ship cryo stand in particular features a noticeably different design, one that hints at the evolving structure of the upgraded Starship. The arrival of these stands signals that SpaceX is ready to resume fullcale ground testing operations at Massie. The first of these tests will likely involve B18 expected to be the first true V3 prototype. reports suggest it has already completed stacking and a new booster QD designed specifically for V3 has been installed at the Massie cryo station. As for the upper stage, S39 has yet to be fully assembled, but preparations indicate that its stacking will occur soon. To fully restore Massiey's capabilities, SpaceX will also need to rebuild its static fire systems, including the ship static fire stand, the ship QD setup, and the vital plumbing and piping networks that supply fuel and coolant. Once these systems are operational again, Massie will reclaim its role as a key site for testing and validation, proving that SpaceX can adapt and rebuild even after setbacks. Altogether, these developments paint a picture of a company charging forward with determination. Pad 2 stands at the forefront, symbolizing the dawn of a new era for Starship. Around it, every corner of Starbase is evolving in harmony, preparing for the challenges and triumphs that await in the next phase of humanity's journey to the stars. It can be said that Starbase is undergoing one of the most extensive upgrade phases in its history. Every transition requires letting go of the past, and this one is no different. Pad 1, after years of loyal service and countless contributions to the Starship program, will soon retire the designs and mechanisms that once defined an era. Those iconic structures will forever remain a symbol of the early Starship journey, representing the bold experimentation that shaped SpaceX's path forward. At the same time, new designs are emerging across the entire site, from the upgraded launchpads to the evolving production systems and modernized test facilities. These changes are more than just technical improvements. They are the foundation of the longanticipated V3 era. SpaceX is building systems that are not only stronger and more efficient, but also designed to support increasingly larger prototypes and a much higher launch cadence in the years to come. The transformation of Starbase is not a single event, but a continuous process that will unfold over time. Unlike test flights that capture immediate excitement, these upgrades symbolize progress on a deeper long-term scale. So, while there may not always be spectacular launches every week, every beam installed and every system tested marks a meaningful step toward the future. Stay tuned because each day brings a small but significant challenge that pushes Starbase closer to its next great milestone. Returning to the moon with Starship sparks debate given its immense height, need for orbital refueling, and other challenges. Yet, history shows challenges invite solutions. One bold idea gaining traction is the stubby Starship. A shorter, more compact design aimed at easing many of the original vehicles hurdles. By downsizing, obstacles once daunting may become manageable. But how practical is this unconventional approach and could it shape more than 50 years after Apollo 17, humanity is once again racing for a return to the moon? This time the leading role has been given to SpaceX with its giant Starship rocket chosen by NASA as the vehicle for the first two crude lunar landings under the Aremis program. The stakes are immense. The expectations are skyhigh and the questions are many. Yet skepticism remains strong. The first source of doubt comes from Starship's own progress. Despite years of development, Starship has not yet successfully reached orbit, has not demonstrated the full reusability that was promised, and has not rolled out a dedicated human landing system or HLS prototype. In addition, the support infrastructure required for such an ambitious spacecraft, is far from complete. That includes the complex refilling system in orbit, which is absolutely critical to Starship's long-term plan for reaching the moon and Mars. The second challenge is Starship's size. Its immense height, towering over 50 meters tall, even in its stripped down HLS variant, creates serious concerns about landing safely on the moon's uneven terrain. Without robust landing pads or support structures in place, the vehicle risks toppling during those first critical missions. Furthermore, its vast size requires huge amounts of fuel, which means it must be refilled in Earth orbit after already burning through much of its propellant simply to reach space. Developing a refueling system capable of transferring and storing cryogenic fuel in orbit is among the most difficult engineering problems in modern space flight. So is there a realistic solution to these problems? Recently a fascinating proposal has been gaining traction and that is called the stubby starship. This concept envisions a shorter and lighter version of Starship designed specifically for the Aremis landings. While it would still be based on the current Starship architecture and possibly share features with the planned HLS design, its most radical change would be its size. Instead of more than 50 m tall, Stubby Starship would stand only 10 to 20 m, cutting its height dramatically. Along with this reduction in size comes a major weight advantage. By eliminating much of the central barrel section along with redesigning its propellant tanks, legs, and crew elevator, Stubby Starship could weigh around 30 tons less than the already heavy 110 ton Starship HLS. What benefits would this bring? Firstly, smaller size means faster production. A compact vehicle can be built more quickly with fewer materials and tested sooner. That directly addresses concerns about the pace of Starship's development. If SpaceX pursued this path, it's possible that a prototype could be ready as early as the middle of next year, putting it on a timeline that would align better with NASA's schedule for Artemis missions. Secondly, reducing height effectively tackles the issue of landing stability. A shorter vehicle has a lower center of gravity and is therefore much less likely to tip over when touching down on the moon's rugged surface. It would give SpaceX greater flexibility in choosing landing sites and greater confidence in using traditional vertical legs rather than more exotic solutions like horizontal landings. Additionally, the shorter height would make it far easier for astronauts to travel from the crew cabin to the lunar surface and to move cargo, rovers, and scientific equipment in and out of the vehicle. Another crucial advantage comes from fuel requirements. The stubby Starship design appears to hold around 400 tons of propellant, which is significantly less than the massive demand of the full Starship HLS. This means it would require only four to five refueling flights in orbit instead of the more than 10 that might otherwise be necessary. That reduction could be the difference between meeting deadlines and falling hopelessly behind. Of course, critics will point out that reducing size also reduces performance. A smaller Starship cannot carry as much cargo, nor can it conduct all the maneuvers of its larger counterpart. But here is where the mission design becomes important. Analysts note that much of the fuel burden in Starship HLS comes from attempting to perform the trans lunar injection or TLI burn itself. This maneuver requires burning 1,200 to,600 tons of propellant to push the spacecraft from Earth orbit toward the moon. However, carrying all of that fuel along with tanks and plumbing means dragging dead weight once on the lunar surface. The proposal suggests offloading this responsibility to a support vehicle or orbital depot. Stubby Starship would launch into low Earth orbit, dock with the system, and be pushed into near rectalinear halo orbit or NRH near the moon. From there, it would operate exactly as NASA intends, fing astronauts to the lunar surface and returning them safely to Orion. As for cargo capacity, the earliest Aremis missions do not require enormous payloads. The first landings will last only a few days and will focus primarily on delivering four astronauts. Their life support supplies and a few key instruments such as rovers and science packages. A smaller Starship is more than capable of handling those modest loads. The potential benefits are obvious. By simplifying operations, reducing fuel demands, and accelerating timelines, Stubby could allow NASA and SpaceX to meet their commitments and beat international competitors to the moon. China, in particular, has been making steady progress with a clear roadmap for crude, lunar landings, and even permanent bases. Many analysts warned that the US could fall behind if Artemis slips further. A bold rethinking like Stubby could be the key to keeping America in the lead. Yet, every idea has two sides, and Stubby faces enormous challenges. First, reaching orbit with a smaller upper stage means the booster must do more work. This could make Super Heavy non-reusable for these missions, which would significantly increase costs. Second, developing the orbital depot or TUG required for the TLI maneuver is not trivial. It would have to be launched ahead of time, fully fueled, and capable of transferring propellant in space. Even if Stubby reduces the number of refueling flights, it still requires at least some orbital refueling, which is a technology that has never been demonstrated at scale. Third, SpaceX itself may resist the idea. The company has been pushing Starship toward greater size and capability, not less. Starship's ultimate purpose is not only the moon, but Mars, where enormous payload capacity will be essential. Stubby seems like a temporary solution, useful only for early Aremis missions before infrastructure such as landing pads, depots, and capture towers exist. Would SpaceX devote resources to building a vehicle that might become obsolete in just a few years? These are serious questions. So, is Stubby the right path forward? On one hand, it promises faster progress, safer landings, and fewer refueling headaches. On the other hand, it introduces new complexities and may not align with SpaceX's long-term strategy. The truth of the matter is the moon race is not just about technology. It's also about politics, timelines, and competition. If NASA and SpaceX need a shortcut to get boots back on the moon before others, Stubby might be the bold, unconventional answer. What do you think? Should SpaceX pursue this smaller version, or should they stay the course with the full-sized Starship HLS? Let me know with a yes or a no in the comments. And be sure to like the video and subscribe to our channel to keep following SpaceX's incredible journey toward the moon and beyond. Now, whether SpaceX ultimately chooses Stubby or continues with the full-size version, there's no escaping the fact that a tremendous amount of preparation still lies ahead. Before any variant can be applied to lunar missions, SpaceX must first complete the fundamental capabilities of Starship itself. Every step of the flight sequence has to be mastered and validated on Earth before anyone can seriously think about applying them to the moon. There are several crucial steps that explicitly relate to lunar operations. The very first is for Starship to successfully reach orbit. This is the absolute baseline standard for any space vehicle. And although SpaceX has come close in previous test flights, the full demonstration has not yet been achieved. Many analysts predict that this milestone may not arrive with flight 11 or even flight 12, but more likely around flight 13. Only when orbital flight is confirmed can Starship prove itself competitive against other vehicles and begin to be considered as a reliable lunar transport system. Once Starship is able to reach orbit consistently, the next tasks come into play. These include payload deployment and engine relight. Payload deployment will be essential because Starship will be tasked with delivering large amounts of cargo and equipment to the moon's surface. To build confidence in this capability, SpaceX must soon demonstrate real payload delivery. Their stated target is to place a 100 tons into orbit, a goal planned for next year. But this will not be enough to do only once. Starship needs to show it can repeat this performance multiple times with reliability. The ability to relight engines in orbit is another fundamental step as it will be critical for navigation, course correction, and ultimately for performing trans lunar maneuvers. Following the orbital phase, SpaceX will have to demonstrate advanced landing capabilities. This is perhaps the most challenging and most anticipated step. For now, only the booster has shown successful landings. While the upper stage or ship has yet to achieve this goal, many expect that ship landings will not occur until sometime next year. Nonetheless, mastering ship landings on Earth will be the primary prerequisite for landing on the moon, where the stakes are much higher. Moreover, achieving safe and consistent ship landings will unlock the full potential of reusability, which is at the very heart of Starship's design philosophy. Beyond these flight related challenges, SpaceX must also navigate the process of transitioning between vehicle versions. After flight 11, the company plans to move to version three. Yet, even beyond that, leaks have suggested that version 4 may be targeted for 2027. SpaceX must determine which design variant will be stable enough for long-term lunar missions as constant redesigns can create confusion and delays. Meanwhile, the first Starship HLS prototypes need to be launched for early testing and mission preparation since NASA's schedule demands results soon. Speaking of NASA, their partnership is another critical factor. Regardless of which Starship version is ultimately used, it'll need to integrate smoothly with NASA vehicles during the crew transfer process. That means NASA must also maintain steady progress with its part of the Artemis program. Any delays or setbacks on their side could cascade into SpaceX's timelines. On the ground, infrastructure is just as important as the rockets themselves. The production system anchored by the Starac and stacking base must run at full capacity to keep up with mission demand. Since the return to the moon will not be about oneoff flights, but rather the beginning of base building efforts, the number of missions required will be significantly higher. To match that demand, both the testing and launch systems must expand and improve. The testing program has been paused since the S36 incident, and it is urgent that it return with upgrades tailored for newer vehicle versions. Similarly, the launchpads at both Starbase and Florida must be completed and brought fully online. Progress has been made, but much work remains before they can support a consistent flight rate. In summary, SpaceX faces a mountain of tasks that need to be urgently completed in the coming period. The race to the moon is intensifying and while the US still leads in most respects, the Aremis program is not without significant risks. High costs, technical complexity, and delays can to fuel concern that the US could stumble in this new space race. Yet, history has shown that breakthroughs often emerge under pressure. Stubby, while unconventional, is an example of the kind of bold idea that could change the game. It offers potential to simplify operations, accelerate readiness, and ease some of the logistical hurdles. Whether or not it becomes the chosen path, it demonstrates that innovation remains alive and well in the effort to return humans to the moon. But of course, not everyone will support such an idea. Critics argue that Stubby may not align with the long-term plans and could represent a diversion of resources. Still, in a race where the ultimate goal is victory, the question becomes, if an unconventional solution works, why not pursue it? The answers will begin to emerge in the months ahead. By early or mid next year, we may see the first mandatory Starship HLS prototype take flight, setting the stage for official missions. Until then, the world will be watching closely as SpaceX, NASA, and their partners make the critical decisions that will determine whether America can once again lead humanity back to the moon. In any case, folks, this has been Kevin with Great SpaceX. Don't forget to like the video and subscribe if you haven't already to stay up to date with yours truly on the latest milestones in SpaceX's journey. Thank you so much for watching and always remember, curiosity, imagination, and inspiration will follow you so long as you keep looking up.