Why was a planned Trump - Putin meeting over the war in Ukraine put on hold?

The White House says a highly anticipated meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will now not take place in the immediate future. President Trump had previously said they would meet in Budapest within two weeks. The two leaders met in Alaska in August, but the encounter did not advance Trump's attempts to end the war in Ukraine. Speaking on Monday, the U.S. president repeated his belief that Putin wants to end the war, but he said the conditions weren't yet in place for further talks. For more, let's talk to Dmitry Alperovitch. He's the chairman of the geopolitical think tank Silverado Policy Accelerator. Dmitry, there was so much talk about this possible meeting. Why do you think Trump now is suddenly saying it would be a waste of his time to meet with Putin? Well, I think what happened is that Donald Trump was exhilarated by the success he's had in Gaza and getting a ceasefire done there. So he thought that on the wings of that success, he could get another ceasefire or potentially an end of the conflict in Ukraine. He reached out to Putin, got at some initial what he thought were positive signs from Putin, and then realized after further conversations, I think, between Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, that no, the Russian position has not changed. Putin still is focused on maximalist objectives. He wants all of the, at a minimum, the Donbass territory to be transferred to him, even the territory he hasn't yet conquered. The Ukrainians, Donald Trump knows, are never going to concede to that. So there's no point in meeting. He had a meeting in Alaska. He realized then that Putin didn't want peace. I think he came back again this week thinking that maybe I can push him and realize that that wasn't doable. Right. Trump had been saying in the last days the war should be frozen where it is now, that Ukraine should be prepared to cede territory to Russia that is currently controlled by Russia. If that apparently isn't good enough for Putin, which seems to be the case, what would it take for Russia to want to end the war? Or is there anything that could get them to want to end the war? Well, look, I think right now Putin is pursuing victory. He wants, at a minimum, all of Donbass. I think the maximalist objectives are even broader than that. I think he'd want a change of government in Kyiv. He'd want a government that's much more pro-Russia friendly than Vladimir Zelensky's government. And he thinks that he can still accomplish at least some of those goals on the battlefield. And he has to be dissuaded of that notion. And the only way to do that is through time. There is no shortcut here. There is no quick way to end this war. And Putin, I think, over the next 12 to 18 months will realize that the cost of prolonged conflict is not good for Russia, is not good for the Russian economy. He's increasingly having significant economic challenges and significant challenges recruiting new forces to go fight in Ukraine. But it's going to take time for him to realize that he can no longer get what he wants at the point of a gun. So it looks like Putin is not giving Trump what Trump wants. A few days ago, there were also reports of Trump and Zelensky shouting at each other at the White House. Do you agree that it seems like Trump is not getting along with either side right now? I think he's frustrated. I think he wants a peace deal there. I think he thinks that it can help him potentially get a Nobel Peace Prize. But I think he honestly generally thinks this war is gone too long. Too many people have died. And he wants it to come to an end. And he was trying in whatever way possible to bring it to an end. He didn't necessarily care about which position would prevail, the Russian position, the Ukrainian position. He just wants the killing to stop. And he said that many times. So when he heard from Putin that he wants this Donbass territory, he put pressure on Zelensky reportedly to concede. When he realized that that was not possible, I think he started to appreciate that you can't get a quick — he's still down here. Let's say that Trump cannot get Ukraine and Russia on a quick path to peace. Is there a risk that he'll just lose interest? I think to some extent he already has, right? So the U.S. policy on Ukraine has changed dramatically since he came into office. We're no longer providing direct military aid to Ukraine, by and large, as we had been before. The congressionally authorized funding has largely run out, except for a few long-term contracts. And now we're doing that through the Europeans. The Europeans are buying those weapons, supplying to Ukraine. So Donald Trump no longer wants to be in the war business. And, you know, he's willing to make money through weapons sales, but not provide direct support. Dmitry Alperovitch, thanks a lot. Thank you. For more on this, let's pull in Joshua Shifrinson. He's an expert on international security and U.S. foreign policy at the University of Maryland. Joshua, we just heard Trump saying there that the meeting isn't happening now because it would be a waste of time. What's going on here? Well, it seems — and there were a series of U.S.-Russian phone calls at working level over the last several days — it seems that Trump got the message that Russia was not willing to bite on his call for a fairly quick end to the conflict. And as a result, Trump has walked away from the meeting with Putin, probably in order not to be seen as weak on Russia-Ukraine and or subservient to Moscow. So it's unclear at this time whether this is a permanent break in the efforts to end the war or a negotiating tactic by the president. Do you think a summit between Trump and Putin was a good idea to begin with? I think in cases where there are large-scale conflict, like between Russia and Ukraine, involvement by senior U.S. leaders, from the president on downward, can be a helpful conduit to build peace. You know, we remember shuttle diplomacy was used in many conflicts by American leaders to help settle the conflicts. In this particular case, I don't get the sense that Trump is paying attention to the details of the conflict, such that a conversation with Putin would do much to advance the end of the war. We've seen so much flip-flopping coming from Trump. A few weeks ago, he was saying Ukraine should win the war and take back all its territory. But just before this meeting with Putin was put on hold, he was saying Ukraine probably won't win. They should cede territory to Russia and just call it a day. What line do you think he'll be taking now? Well, I think the notion that he floated a few days ago, a few weeks ago, that Ukraine could take back all its territory should win. You know, that was very much out of left field. That's not what he's been saying over the last many years, several months, certainly. And so I suspect he's still angling for an end to the conflict that would more or less freeze the battle line where it currently is and from there begin negotiating around what Russia calls the deep-seated issues of the conflict, issues such as Ukraine's geopolitical alignment, the future government of Ukraine, and beyond. So I think we're going to see more of that coming out of the White House. What line do you think the Trump administration should be taking in the war now? Well, I think certainly the longer the war goes on, A, the worse it is for Russia and certainly Ukraine, but then B, the more risk there is in Europe in general. This is the largest conflict in Europe since the end of the Second World War. Russia, of course, is a major nuclear-armed power. We have many European countries, Germany, France, Britain, and others concerned over how the conflict may go. I do think we are at the point now where a beginning of the end, where an effort to settle the issues underlying the conflict would make a great deal of sense with the proviso that obviously Ukraine needs to have some vehicle for deterring future Russian aggression. Joshua Shiffernson, thanks so much for talking to us. My pleasure. Thank you.