2025 Mexico City Grand Prix: Preview and Predictions

Hey guys, Sean here. Welcome to the F1 Word and to the preview for the 2025 Mexico City Grand Prix. A weekend I'm really looking forward to because thanks to the events in Austin last time out, this could be a huge weekend in this year's championship fight. That said, every race between now and the end of the season could and likely will be huge. We are in for a fantastic final five races, I reckon. But anyway, as touched on there last weekend, F1 was in the United States where Max Verstappen, well, won it all really. But now it is on to the 4.304 km, that is 2.6 mile 17 corner, Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez for round 20 of the season. Apologies for my inevitably terrible pronunciation there. There will be three DRS zones in use this time around, with the first between turns three and four, the second between turns 11 and 12, and the final zone runs down much of that very long start-finish straight and run to the first corner. And as a result of those DRS sections, the best spots to get an overtake done are down at turn one. And we do see moves quite often at that corner, don't we? But turn four is also a great place to try something. And we do tend to see a fair bit of wheel-to-wheel action through that complex of four, five and six. But of course, watch out for those pesky track limits on the exit of turn four. Over the years, 24 races have been held at the circuit since its debut on the World Championship calendar in 1963, with Max Verstappen holding the record for the most wins around the track with five, including three in a row from 2021 to 2023. And did you know that Lotus holds the record for the most poles at the track with six? And of the drivers on the current grid, only three, Lewis Hamilton, Max Verstappen and Carlos Sainz, have won a race at this circuit. And my absolute favourite thing about both of those stats is that six is the number of dry tyre compounds in the whole Pirelli range, and three is the number of dry compounds available across a race weekend. Oh, yes, that's right. It is another double segue into tyre talk time. Just the four to go now. The compounds available for this one then are the hard C2, the medium C4 and the soft C5. Yes, for the second weekend in a row, they are skipping a compound. Now in its preview, Pirelli admits that the C2 is considered an extremely conservative choice for the hard tyre, and that as well as offering less grip, there will be a considerable delta in terms of lap time compared to the other two softer compounds. So while no two tracks are the same, we could be looking at a situation similar to Austin, where teams stretch the softer compounds as far as possible to avoid the drop off in lap time on the hards. Then again, you could argue if the delta is pretty big, maybe they'll just accept having to take a second pit stop if degradation on the softest tyres is high. It should be said as well, it is a low grip track and it's not massively demanding in terms of the stress put through the tyres. And you can expect to see a high level of track evolution across the whole of the weekend. Altitude is a word you'll hear a lot across the event as the circuit sits over 2,200 metres above sea level. And that can impact on the tyres as well, with graining in particular being an issue due to the thin air, which reduces the amount of aerodynamic downforce the cars can produce. Last year's winning strategy, by the way, was a one stopper with race winner Carlos Sainz running a medium to hard race, changing tyres on lap 32 and almost all of the field stuck to a variation of that strategy. And the weather will, of course, play its part in any strategy this weekend. But once again, rain isn't really expected across the event with all three days as of Wednesday afternoon, at least, all set to be warm and dry. And as always, the latest forecast as of Thursday morning is on screen for you to have a look at now. But just bear in mind that it could change between me saying this and the preview going out again. And your schedule for this one is similar to last weekend in terms of session times, give or take, although it's a very different format because, of course, there's no sprint this weekend in Mexico. All of that means that FP1 will get the weekend underway as usual from 7.30pm BST, and that is followed later that night by FP2 at 11pm. Saturday's F1 action kicks off with FP3 at 6.30pm, with qualifying underway at 10pm. And it will be lights out for the race on Sunday at 8pm. And once again, that is in UK time. Now, before I make my usual round of predictions, let's have a run through a few news stories and talking points. I've been doing the rounds since Austin. So first up, Carlos Sainz comes into this weekend with a five place grid penalty hanging over his head, following his tangle with Kimi Antonelli at Kota. As I'm sure you remember, the pair have been battling at Turn 15 in the early stages of the race when Sainz attempted to move underneath Antonelli, wounding his Williams as they made contact, resulting in him retiring from the race. Carlos told the stewards that he had expected Antonelli to leave him space at the apex, but the Mercedes turned in early and Sainz locked his brakes when it became clear that a collision was unavoidable. The stewards, though, explained that at no point prior to the apex was the front axle of the Williams alongside or ahead of the mirror of the Mercedes. And so according to the infamous driving standards guidelines, Sainz had not earned the right to be left space at the apex. And so it was determined he was predominantly to blame for the collision. And so he was handed that grid drop for Mexico. That was not the only piece of post-race news, though, as the Red Bull team was given what the stewards consider a significant penalty following a breach of the International Sporting Code. A post-race investigation found that one of the team's mechanics had entered the gates well after cars began to move off on their formation lap, constituting an unsafe act. The incident has resulted in Red Bull being handed a €50,000 fine, half of which is suspended to the end of the season on the condition there are no similar breaches. But there is seemingly a little bit more to this incident as the race has reported that the team member reached onto an area of the pit wall parallel to Norris' grid slot, with various sources indicating that the Red Bull figure was targeting the tape left by McLaren. The report goes on to add that was not the first time Red Bull had interfered with the tape applied by McLaren on the pit wall, with the Papaya team recently changing its methods to make the tape more difficult to remove. PlanetF1.com understands, by the way, there is confidence there will not be a repeat of the issue going forward. And if you're wondering about the significance of the tape, it is an aid used in this instance by McLaren to mark their grid positions as drivers cannot easily see the lines on the track marking their grid box due to the limited visibility in the cars. It must be said, it is not illegal for other teams to remove the tape, and so the Red Bull team member was penalised because they should not have been where they were at that point in time. It's a safety issue. And there are a tonne of FP1 driver changes in Mexico. In fact, nine teams have announced changes. I'm just going to go and list them all here. So deep breath and here we go. Max Verstappen will make way for Arvid Lindblad at Red Bull. Lando Norris will be replaced by Pato O'Ward at McLaren. Ferrari are giving Antonio Fuoco a session in place of Lewis Hamilton. Fred Vesti is taking George Russell's seat at Mercedes. Lance Stroll is being replaced by Jack Crawford at Aston Martin. Pierre Gassi will make way for Paul Aaron at Alpine. Luke Browning will be behind the wheel of Carlos Sainz's Williams. Ayumu Iwasa will replace Liam Lawson at Racing Bulls. And Olly Behman's Haas will be driven by Ryo Hirakawa. That is a lot of FP1 driver changes. Right then, time to make some predictions. And as always, please do not take these too seriously. They're just a little bit of fun. But if you do disagree with my picks, then you can let me know yours in the comment section down below. And last time, it actually didn't go as badly as it usually goes. It was still bad, don't get me wrong. But just a bit better. I was right on Verstappen for sprint pole and the sprint win. And I also get half points for Verstappen and Norris on the podium, but in the wrong order. And given how these tend to go, I'll take that. This week is a tough one again. But given his form over the years in Mexico, as well as his current form in this season, this one could be another Max Verstappen weekend. Now, of course, McLaren will be right up there with him and desperate to pick up the win, which if they did, would be their first since Zandvoort. And I wouldn't totally rule out Mercedes either. And Ferrari had a good weekend in Austin, so they have something to build on too. I usually overthink this. Yes, although these are always guesswork to a point. Don't let my season score fool you. I do actually think about these. I know, shocking. But this week, I'm letting my heart rule my head because I would love for this title to be a three-way fight in Abu Dhabi. So I am going to go with a Max Verstappen pole and a win for the Dutchman as well. I'll try and keep it somewhat realistic and say that Oscar Piachu finds some form again after a disappointing run and takes P2 with maybe a bit of a gamble. But do you know what? It's been a while since I've said this, so I'm going to go with George Russell on the podium with Orlando Norris P4 and less than a second behind him over the line. Behind the leaders, I'll pick Racing Bulls as my fifth best finishing team on Sunday. Maybe some points for their drivers too. As for some separate boulder picks, I'll say we get a little bit of a mixed up race which allows Fernando Alonso to take a top five finish. I would love that. As always, I'm going to go with Franco Colapinto to score a point or two as well as a double points finish for Racing Bulls. And how about one more? Let's say points for one of the Haas drivers. Let's go with Esteban Ocon. There we go. That is it for the Mexico City Grand Prix preview then. But don't forget, you can let me know your thoughts and your predictions ahead of the weekend in the comment section down below. Now, I will be live for the qualifying watch along on Saturday over on my new channel. Link in the description. And then back here on the F1 Word for the race watch along on Sunday. In the meantime though, if you did enjoy this one, then please do leave a like because it really does help the channel in its never ending battle with that pesky YouTube algorithm. And consider subscribing too so you don't miss any future videos or streams. But as ever, thank you for watching. I've been Sean, this has been the F1 Word and until next time, goodbye.