Is it Time to Sell_.mp4

Hey traders, welcome back to another Sunday video where we're talking about trading setups for the week ahead. Although this one I am doing on Friday as I am going to be unavailable to do a video on Sunday. So let's take a look at some setups for the week ahead and what we can kind of think about as we follow up the CPI print that we got Friday that was better than expected. In today's video, we're going to, as we usually do, we'll take a look at stocks, we'll look at gold, we'll look at silver, we'll look at the dollar and prime for the week ahead. Now we're also going to take a look at some key M's and what I mean by that is macro and momentum, which charts are moving, where are the opportunities on the price action trend following side of things as well as what is the macro telling us. So without further ado, if you could do me a favor, hit the thumbs up button, subscribe to my channel. If you're new, it'll tell YouTube that you want to see more of my content and let's jump right into it. So I'm going to start with the S and P 500 because obviously you can see here, we've still got about 30 minutes of the day left at the time of recording this in terms of stock market exchange. But for the most part, we are right there at all time highs, really strong close. For the most part here it's looking like, and that is a fresh, like I said, both all time high intraday and closing high for the S and P 500. And what I want you to be thinking about with the stock market hitting all time highs is that it is pretty well known through a lot of market research that all time highs usually kind of, uh, they predict more all time highs, believe it or not. It's a concept called momentum and it is very, very strong in financial markets. Something that tends to move up or something that is moving up tends to keep moving up. And so that is exactly why when it comes to this year, I've been really reluctant and have not at all tried to call the top of the stock market rally or the gold market rally. Think about something with me for a second, if you will. This year has been an absolute banger of a year for people who are trend followers and following momentum. And it has been an absolutely terrible year for people who are trying to fight trends, counter trend trade, et cetera. Now that's not always the case. By the way, there are times in markets where fighting the trend can do really well. You can actually be contrarian to the market and do really well. But this year it has paid to be with the market. And I've actually trailed my stop loss on my NASDAQ position. So I want to get into that. So if we just go back to the S and P 500 for a second monthly chart remains very intact and it's gotta be exhausting to be super bearish on this market. The reason I say that is because we are continuing to see higher lows and higher highs. And yet, while you got some momentum in October, I'm sorry, some volatility in October momentum, one out and we still see prices putting in new all time highs. Now, again, what is kind of mind numbing about this is that you're just not seeing any sizable pullbacks in the stock market, but it doesn't mean that just because we haven't had one for a while that we have to have one very soon. Timing a pullback is really tricky. And so for me instead, I am just planning to ride momentum. And when we take a look at debt monthly chart again, this is one, I would call this a bullish month, even though it's technically a bearish and then reversal month, let's call it a bullish month. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven candles in a row. Let's call it six and a half, six and a half to seven candles in a row of just straight bullish momentum. So where does this thing go next? It's got to pull back, right? Well, again, I think the smarter thing to do if 2025 has taught us a lesson is to follow the trend, not try to fight the trend. And so when I look at the S and P 500 and I noticed that price action has been respecting support areas around the 65 75 level. And then we came back into a week and we had that little kind of bout of fear again, come back into the market and push off again. Price action is telling me that this market wants to go higher for now. Now, in case something changes, let's take a look at my NASDAQ trade. So I am long NASDAQ. And yesterday at the time of you're watching this on Saturday, I put out a video talking about my trading performance. And this year has been a really simple concept of following the macro, following momentum. As I started out today's video, that's exactly what I'm going to be doing in the NASDAQ. So if I take a look here at the NASDAQ overall reading within the edge finder, what you'll see is that we're getting a very bullish rating. Overall technicals look solid with seasonality ahead of us looking good. We can talk about that in a second, but the big picture is seasonality or the projections for end of year still look really good. The momentum, the trend of this market, still to the upside, institutional activity through the commitment of traders data. We still have a bullish rating there, even though we are lacking new data due to the government shutdown inflation data. We had CPI print on Friday, which was very, very solid and economic growth still looks good. Again, is there a top eventually coming for the stock market? Is there going to be some blow off top? Absolutely. And maybe we're going to melt up before that happens, or maybe we're going to roll over. My plan is to follow momentum and to watch price action to guide me through it. So I like the macro. I like the story. I am bullish. We've broken through the highs. And my plan is to keep a trade on unless we fail out. If we start failing out on the price action side of things, I'm going to stop out of my long position on the NASDAQ 100 index. I am personally trading QQQ on my brokerage portfolio. So I'm looking for upside in the stock market. I still think prices are buys on the dip. And if we take a look at the S&P 500, again, you had that kind of intro week support level held very nicely. And I think on the daily chart, we can go ahead and mark that around that 6680. I still think that, and I mentioned this a second ago, let's take a look at that seasonality for the S&P 500 going into the year. And so far we seem to be following suit. So this dotted white line is seasonality patterns. Now the edge finder detects this stuff and automatically scores it, right? It adds it into its algorithm of whether an asset is bullish or bearish. It looks at seasonality, but I just wanted to get a visual on this because I do think it's really important to us. So when we look at the S&P 500 end of year, trajectory for the stock market is to see a strong fourth quarter. That is the 10 year average historical performance that does not guarantee that the stock market goes up in the fourth quarter, but it tends to according to our 10 year average history. So I'm still really liking that story and I'm not going to fight that. I'm going to ride that. And if it changes, if something drastically, you know, happens with the U S and China, I know we're supposed to hear from Trump and president. She they're supposed to meet this upcoming week. If that happens, I think that could be very bullish for equities as well. So again, not fighting the trend. Momentum is your friend in this market. This is not something you want to fight. In my personal opinion, quick look at Dow Jones industrial average, also putting in a fresh all time closing high and intraday high and the Russell 2000. I also have a long position on, I picked this one up on that Wednesday sell off. So price has got a little scared on Wednesday shot to the downside and we see prices rebounding here. Nicely, not quite an all time high for the Russell, but I think we are likely to see some new ones pretty soon. In fact, we've kind of coiled up here. When we look at the monthly chart on the Russell longer term, we've kind of coiled up here at this longterm double top. And I think that with this monthly candle closing out, we may be on the precipice of a bigger breakout and a bit of a catchup trade on the Russell as with cooling inflation, right? We go take a look at our CPI data, cooling inflation, uh, overall suggests that the fed can cut rates, but it's not just the inflation story. Cause if you say that, you might say, well, Nick, we're literally not cooling. We're literally going up in inflation. How can you say that? Well, yes, but let's also remember the bigger picture here. So if we go back a couple years, so I'm going to go back three years and you can see inflation has come down a long way. Now we're still above our target, right? The feds target is 2%, but there's also something I talked about on Friday's video. I'm filming that today, uh, earlier today, which is the jobs market. Jobs market's been pretty weak, right? So we've seen weakness in the jobs market. Here's the non-farm payroll monthly numbers. Uh, if we take a look at job openings, they've also been trending down here for the last few years. So the fed's looking at this and saying, okay, well, inflation is not perfect, uh, but it's a lot better than it has been, but the jobs market needs some help. So we're going to cut some rates. Lowering borrowing costs is straight up injecting liquidity into the stock market, uh, especially in an economy that seems to be holding up overall pretty decently well, uh, all things considered. And what I'm referencing there is I'm looking at simply the output of the economy. GDP growth has been consistently above expectations. Your yellow dot is expectations. Uh, the blue bar is what we've actually been getting on GDP prints, which have been really strong for the U S. So again, I remain bullish on the U S stock market as a whole. Specifically, I have NAS long and I have Russell, uh, long positions on at this time. Let's take a look at the precious metals here. It was an interesting week. If we take a look here. And just before I get onto that, let me also just make a quick plug. If you're someone who likes the edge finder, if you watch my videos and you're like, Hey, that's a pretty cool tool. Well, I want to tell you something free that's going on right now. You can currently try out the edge finder, no strings attached, no credit card required, no payment, no nothing using our, uh, discord. I'm sorry, our telegram channel. If you join our telegram channel using the link in the description down below, and then click the pinned message here. Uh, what you can do here is you can navigate and get the free week available here within our telegram. We're doing this until October 29th gives you a chance to explore the edge finder for free, simply fill out that form. And then that email will get sent directly to you, uh, where you can access the edge finder for free between now and next. What is that Wednesday or Tuesday of next week? Our team put this together so that people can try out the edge finder for free for a little bit. So there is your chance to do so. And here's a QR code. If it's easier for you, simply scan the QR code that you see on your screen right here. If that's easier for you. And what that will do is we'll redirect you to the telegram simply, like I said, click that pinned message, and then you can fill out the form to get access to the edge finder free events that we are doing between now and October 29th. So back to precious metals, let's talk a little bit about this rally. So, uh, well, I should say the rally than the, the sell-off that we had this week. It's been crazy. Gold volatility has been very high. Same with silver. So huge push, right? Massive, massive push to the upside and a sharp drop here. Uh, I was looking at this thinking, okay, we're probably going to tag that 38.2% retracement to 61.8%. And by the way, we still might, uh, but we've had some impressive resiliency from the bulls here. Take a look at our moving averages. And what you can see here is that, uh, the 20 day moving average has been tested. And so far for this week seems to be holding really well for the bulls. You know, I don't have a very strong conviction on gold or silver right now. I'll show you just, if I go back to my AI market scanner, by the way, what this is doing when you're using the edge finder, when you're exploring it for free right now, which you should, if you go to like gold or for example, and you see something like a neutral bias, all that's telling you is that when looking at our six kind of major core, uh, cornerstone pieces, it's just telling you gold is getting a neutral rating within the edge finder. So I wouldn't, you know, really have a strong bias out of the direction. Technicals may look bullish, but I don't only trade off technicals. I know a lot of traders do, but I like to trade off of what's happening in the economy. What's happening in the jobs market, what's happening in the inflation department market sentiment, what's the crowd thinking, right? Crowds actually kind of been getting bullish on gold here recently. We can see that in our put to call ratio. So if you want to look at gold on a put to call ratio basis, and again, by the way, while you're exploring, explore the put to call ratio. It's a really cool tool. So what the put to call ratio actually shows you is it shows you options flow, like how many calls are people buying? How many puts are people buying? And the reason that's useful is it gives you an inside look at what the crowd sentiment on something really is through the options exchange. And that's a big sample size. So if we take a look at gold, for example, this is using GLD, the ETF for gold, which, you know, high volume, good sample size here. What we can see is there's a lot of bullish sentiment coming into this dip. So it seems like the crowd sentiment is to buy the dip. That signals to me that, you know, on the lowest key, we might actually have more downside to come in gold in the short run. Though, like I said, I don't have enough conviction one way or another to say I'm long, I'm short. I just don't have that because again, I go back to my system. I like to see confluence across most of my metrics here to really take a trade. And I just don't have that. So gold is not a trade for me, but I will say sentiment is a little bit bullish. That tells me we might have a little bit more room to pull back. The economic data looks pretty strong for the dollar right now, in my personal view and overall inflation was good, like bullish for CPI. That was a good signal for, for gold, right? More interest rate cuts. That's going to be good for gold. But again, picture is a little bit too mixed. And I do think from a technical perspective, we have room to kind of further pull back, maybe wash out a little bit more of the leverage, a little bit more of the euphoria that has been in gold. And I think that that would be a healthy reset for bulls to take it and maybe keep going with it in the rest of 2025 into 2026. So long-term, I'm pretty much permanently bullish on gold and silver, but short term, I would love to see, I would actually welcome further downside flush some, some of the, uh, the leverage and the super excited bulls out of the picture and give the long-term bulls the chance to pick it up at a discount. We'll see if I'm right about that, but I don't have enough conviction to place a trade. So no trade for me on there. Same thing with silver. Although we did get a little bit of a deeper retracement in regards to the moving averages, we actually closed below the 20 day moving average. So perhaps silver has a little bit more room to squeeze lower. Test that 44 level around the two, uh, sorry, the 50 day moving average. And if we draw fibs from our swing low to swing high here on, uh, on silver, and I know these are big fibs, but again, you've had a big move. So big fibs, big moves make sense. Uh, 38.2% retracement still holding here pretty well for silver. So, you know, we'll see, uh, if you do get a break through those lows, I think you're probably headed to the six one eight, which lines up with that 50 day moving average and 44 on that price level for silver price. Uh, that is of course spot level. So we'll see what happens there. Part of the reason I think the dollar is a little bit poised for upside is again, that GDP growth metric that I showed you earlier still looks solid for the dollar, uh, holding this upward trend line, at least for now we'll see. I still think the dollar could make a push up to 100. Uh, and I do have a position currently on the dollar on the long side. Actually I have two, I have a dollar Swiss long position and I also have a UUP, which is an ETF that tracks the dollar basket. I have a long position on that one as well. So we'll see what happens on that front. If we take a look at oil, uh, if you've been listening to my videos here recently, you know, I am looking interested, uh, at a potential buy on oil prices. Uh, but again, we've kind of dropped back to neutral here. So I'm going to keep an eye on what we find on oil prices looking for a breakout. So if we get a breakout of this downward structure, I'm going to look for a possible by the dip opportunity, are they looking for that leg higher in oil prices? I think there may be something there, but I'm not ready to pull the trigger on it because we're still in what I think is a higher timeframe, uh, choppy to downside, uh, moving market. So far, uh, copper also making a little bit of a push higher here. It still looks solid precious metals as a whole. Uh, you know, copper seems to be doing well amongst the group. Uh, and then again, if we keep going, taking a look at cryptocurrency, Bitcoin still just hovering around this one Oh 8,000 level. And it's been sort of a, I've actually seen some frustration in the crypto space because you've seen the stock market rally to new highs. And yet Bitcoin is kind of stuck down at the bottom end of this range. I wouldn't give up completely on the idea that Bitcoin could have an end of year rally. Uh, if we go back to our seasonality stuff here for a second, let me show you this. So if I go seasonality, uh, interestingly, Bitcoin also has some really strong end of year seasonality, uh, that might be worth watching for. So here's a look at that chart. And what you can see here is again, that end of year rally for Bitcoin could be interesting though. Uh, so far we've just been kind of consolidating at these levels for Bitcoin. So I think there may be some upside to in the year on Bitcoin, especially if the stock market keeps tripping, I imagine Bitcoin might have a little bit of a catch up move to it. So we'll keep an eye on that. And also one thing to mention, I mean, uh, this is one point of a slight concern I would say is that you have Bitcoin to gold ratio still suggesting, you know, gold is dramatically outperforming gold. Even with the downside move in gold prices, you can see when this chart's moving down, what that means is gold is doing better than Bitcoin. And so we still see that trend taking place. Bitcoin underperforming gold here recently thought that was interesting. Another thing on the sentiment side, if we're taking a look at market sentiment, um, still a lot of bearishness out there. This to me still suggests you could have upside in the stock market, just going against, uh, the crowd sentiment that we see taking place in the AAII investor sentiment survey. However, um, let's take a look at that put to call ratio again. And this time, you know, we looked at gold, let's look at S and P 500 and you can see we're kind of back to neutral territory. Again, stock markets have been rallying. So I'm not surprised to see things kind of swinging back to neutrality. Although with the sell-off again, that was where I got long was I saw this put to call ratio kind of going crazy. A lot of people got really scared there. Uh, that AAII and sentiment survey also came in showing a lot of bearishness. And I take that as a contrarian bearish, I'm sorry, contrarian bullish signal when bearish sentiment spikes, I tend to like to look for bullish opportunities. If the rest of my, you know, system is kind of agreeing with a bullish setup, this by itself, I wouldn't use necessarily to time entries and exits, but this in combination with a view of the macro, right? Economic data, inflation data, jobs, data, et cetera, is a really cool tool that I like to incorporate in my own trading. So, like I said, that is part of the reason why I am pretty risk on oriented at this time and long stocks going into the weekend and going into the week ahead. Quick look at bonds. Bonds have been rebounding here. You're looking at TLT. This is the 20 plus year treasury bond ETF. Yields have been moving lower, a little bit of a bounce up here recently, but for the most part, trending lower that confirms that the fed is likely to cut interest rates in the eyes of the bond market. Internationally, you can see the UK expected to cut interest rates. I thought this was kind of interesting. We look at the British pound really under pressure here recently is the British pound due to some soft inflation data or softer than expected inflation data. It looks like the pound is potentially headed lower here for now. We had a really strong move in the pound for a lot of 2025 but they've struggled with some really tough circumstances, which is low growth, high inflation. And of course, if you want to look at the edge finder for this, you can always do that. That is if you're a currency trader, this is where the edge finder really shines is if you look at like our economic heat maps, you can look at, for example, some of the data around the UK economy, for example. And what you can see is that you've got a tricky circumstance for the UK, which is of course a CPI, for example, coming in softer than expected, but still at 3.8%. Yes, that is a, you know, better than expected, but still 3.8% on an absolute basis is still pretty high. So, you know, something to think about on that front, uh, unemployment still kind of on the rise there and, uh, you know, GDP growth pretty much non-existent. So to me, the UK, the British pound, uh, while in the short term has a little bit of a slightly positive score, I'm a little bit cautious on the British pound over the longer stretch, uh, at least for now, but it's not just the UK. I mean, you have other places like, here's Europe. We look at the Euro, the Euro, right? If you're looking at Euro, um, it's not perfect either. Very low amounts of growth. I mean, actual GDP data came in at 0.1% in line with forecasts. I mean, just nothing really, uh, of, of substance here, inflation, uh, much lower though, so they can cut interest rates. So this actually makes me even more bearish Euro than I am on the pound, uh, because the pound is dealing with high inflation, low growth, at least the Euro is dealing with low inflation, low growth, which means they can cut rates if needed to spur the economy further. So something to, uh, something to watch. And I, one of the simplest ways if you're a currency trader using the edge finder is just pull up your economic surprise meter. What this will do for you is look at which countries or which economies I should say are comparing well or weak versus the economic projections for those countries. So if we're looking at like the U S you got a 50%. So not too hot, not too cold. But then if you look at like Europe, Europe is getting a weak score relative to expectations. So that would tell me to be a little softer on Euro. CAD has actually surprised we had some hot inflation prints this week when it came to the Canadian dollar. That's a little stronger for the CAD, right? Um, so, and then Swiss franc getting a bearish reading. So something to think about is, you know, when it comes to economic data, I know it can kind of be daunting, but having the right tools can severely help to scan this. And if you take advantage of the free week with the edge finder, you can explore this exact tool. And if you're a currency trader, this might be really useful to you. Um, so all sorts of stuff to explore. Uh, again, I implore you. I highly recommend if you are somebody who's ever thought about getting a copy of the edge finder, if you're like, I watched the videos, I like the tools and I want to copy myself. Uh, here's your chance to try it for free and full transparency. If you made it to 22 minutes into my video here with me, full transparency, we're going to be dropping a really big discount coming soon. It's the best opportunity for the whole year to pick up a copy of the edge finder, uh, for our black Friday sale event. So I encourage you take it seriously, especially this week. And if you have a little time today, explore the edge finder, go through the product, see if it's something that would be beneficial to you and then be ready for the black Friday sale so that you can pick up a copy at the lowest discount all year long. We're trying to be really transparent about our marketing on this so that you can get the tool that I think you really should get. If you want to be a fundamental macro trader, uh, obviously, you know, I use it in all my videos and I'm selling it, right. But I genuinely use it every single day for my own trading. And I quite literally do not leave home without it. I hope my videos are helpful to you. If they are, make sure you hit that thumbs up button, subscribe, and don't forget, try out the edge finder. I'll leave a link in the description down below. Have a great week ahead.