Don't Say I Didn't Tell You | Palantir Earnings Predictions

Well it's almost time for Palantir's earnings and with the market running red hot and Palantir running red hot as well, Palantir's earnings will give us insight into if this explosive growth can continue once again. Palantir is at or near all-time highs right now coming into this earnings and we are clearly in the overvalued territory. But does Palantir have enough juice this earnings to make the valuation actually more reasonable? I mean that's exactly what we all want in the end. So that's exactly what we're going to talk about today. What I see happening, the three things I'm watching for specifically, my exact plan through it all, including what I would do as a new investor in Palantir stock. A lot of you guys ask me all the time, hey it's great Luke, I love your plan, but what if I'm new? What if I don't own a ton of Palantir? What do I do? Well we'll cover that today as well. Just make sure you like the video if you like getting the truth about the hype because that is exactly what you're going to get today guys. Despite the fact, hey hype is everywhere right now, we need to cut through it and get down to the nitty-gritty of everything. You guys know right now it is earnings season and earnings season is usually wild. It doesn't make much sense and that has held true once again in the stock market. It's why I just buy according to my plan and avoid all the craziness around earnings because a stock is never more manipulated than it is around earnings, right? But you can't simply ignore them either. You gotta pay attention to those earnings. You can't read the headlines either. That's not the appropriate way to handle it. You have to dive the numbers, listen to the calls themselves, and then make your assessments on the company from there. Because not putting in that level of work is why so many of us, the retail investors, end up avoiding a great company like Palantir at $6 because of the narrative, because of what everybody's saying about it, not what was actually happening on earnings. Earnings said one thing that basically told me Palantir is a great company and to keep gobbling up shares. The media, YouTube, and social media, even the ultra bulls at various points, were saying the exact opposite. So many folks either didn't buy at all at those lows or they didn't buy as much as they wanted to because of the narrative. And unfortunately, that has persisted on this entire journey up the chain as it's gone all the way from $6 all the way up, you know, approaching $200 now. Now we have been discussing earnings of specific companies daily in the group there, which is critical to your investing journey, getting into those earnings. If you are serious about learning how to invest and you want to work directly with me, make sure you take advantage of the fall frenzy sale that ends this weekend, guys, and grab your spot before they are all gone. We'll talk more about it at the end of the video, but it's the pin comment down there. All right. So back on track here, Palantir stock is just different from most stocks in the stock market. There's kind of this constant battle with this stock kind of very, very similar to Tesla back in the day. It's either a future $1 trillion company or it is just, you know, basically trash and another stock destined to be bankrupt in a few years. I'm serious, guys. Those conversations still go on today, despite what we see on earnings. Seriously, people see it as either another stock Wall Street was late to or it's complete overhyped garbage doomed to fail. And all that seems kind of wild, given that we know Palantir is one of the AI leaders and AI appears to be here to stay. Now, as AI has gotten too far ahead of itself is a different question altogether. And it's a fair question to ask. That's a whole separate question for a whole separate talk. If we're talking about Palantir's earnings today. So let's discuss the three things I'm watching for in this earnings call for Palantir. And the first is guidance on new contracts. Once again, they had several new contracts that were announced this quarter. And once again, the lag in government contract payouts, which is normal for the government, shocking, I know, is going to be even worse this time around with a shutdown and everything else. I have no clue how they're prioritizing that if Palantir is getting any sort of priority whatsoever. I have no idea. Neither does anybody else either. We're just going to wait and see what they say on earnings in regards to that payout. But just know that the government will pay those out at some point in time in the future. So even if the numbers aren't as great as we think they should be, they're going to get paid out there in the future, which means it'll set us up for a big quarter later on. We also had several large contracts renewed, which proves that the business model is sticky, which we all already knew that at this stage, it is very hard for customers, especially governments who are diving more and more into Palantir to switch vendors and jump over to somebody else. And please, guys, once again, it happened in the last quarter. Once again, exactly like we predicted right here. Don't even get me started on the commercial versus government side of the business. I have no idea what the mix will look like, and I don't care either if I'm being honest and neither should you. Literally every single earnings call for the history of Palantir stock, there are people who have complaints about it. Either the government grows and we'd like to see more commercial growth. Maybe their commercial growth isn't as robust. So that's a problem. And then commercial growth grows. Well, now we see the government isn't growing at the same pace. So now that's a problem, right? I mean, it just seriously, they can cure cancer. And I'm sure there will be somebody out there with a problem about that. As long as they guide to more growth in the number of contracts, I'm not going to put that much stock into whether it's commercial or government or whatever. I want growth overall. And that is what I'm looking at for Palantir. But you're going to see the CNBC folks and other experts out there discussing these points as if it really freaking matters. And guess what, guys? It doesn't matter. The second thing I'm looking for is the impact of the ongoing trade war. Now, obviously, the economy is still growing despite all the noise and all everything around that. But the trade war has put a lot of companies kind of in a holding pattern with a lot of different spending as they kind of try and navigate these waters because they're changing constantly. Right. But on the flip side, as this drags on and continues to drag out, the facts are getting more efficient is essential to navigating this time period, especially businesses that are disproportionately affected by all the tariff stuff and all the noise and everything else like that. So that could continue to be a nice little boom for Palantir and an acceleration in some areas that maybe wouldn't we, you know, we basically wouldn't have seen that acceleration otherwise because they would have had more time to, you know, wait around and, well, we don't really need Palantir right now. Well, this may very well force a lot of their hands. Now, remember, keep this in mind. This is straight out of earnings. According to Alex, they have way more demand than supply. So even if some folks drop off, that's OK. The best spot to be in is having more demand than you have supply because it doesn't matter. But it is possible that this is getting tested as well, to say the least. So it's something I am absolutely watching, because if it does affect the business negatively a little bit, it means that the way more demand and supply claims might have been a little bit over optimistic. Now, I don't think that's the case, but just kind of giving you guys a little bit of devil's advocate here. But it is something I'm watching closely to make sure the part of the bull thesis with this stock stays intact. And like I said, I actually think the trade war may actually help them more. Some companies will be forced to look at solutions like Palantir offers in order to maintain their financial performance moving forward. That's just going to be the fact for a lot of companies out there. And in this case, it may push people into Palantir's arms earlier than expected. But we have to see what Alex says on the earnings call. And the third thing I'm looking for is will growth continue to accelerate? This is the biggest reason for the run in this stock price to keep going and why it has run up so fast so far for so long. And that stock price is basically way ahead of great fundamentals. OK, let me be very, very clear that fundamentals have been great. Now, yes, we're in a hot market. Yes, the speculators are out pumping everything to the moon that has anything to do with AI whatsoever. Hey, you got a PowerPoint. Does AI on it? Yep, yep, yep. One hundred million dollar valuation right there for you. No problem to the moon, that's kind of what's going on right now. However, when valuations get this stretch like they are with Palantir, the only thing that keeps the speculative runs like this growing and continue running is increasing growth rates that are already incredible. Guys, Palantir has done this for several earnings in a row. And you add that into a hot speculative market and you are showing what kind of growth and the hot space of hot spaces does. And it's a recipe for a ridiculous run like we've gotten. But when that growth stalls and starts to stagnate, not that it's terrible, not that it's still not incredible. But guess what? If you don't kind of keep topping yourself, which becomes impossible at some point in time for you, just top yourself, top yourself, top yourself, which, by the way, though, saying that that'll never happen. You can just keep doing that. It's never happened in the history of the world. But yeah, go ahead and keep thinking that if you want to think that nobody's been able to increase growth rates quarter after quarter after quarter forever. It's just never happened. So when it slows down, the stock may finally come back down towards the fundamentals or at least move in the direction of the fundamentals, which, of course, we know are great. It will happen at some point, and a slowing of the growth rate can be the catalyst that sends it there. So what do I think happens on this earnings call? Well, quite simply, guys, I think Palantir beats on revenue, beats on EPS and increases free cash flow once again. And if we do get another big beat and a guidance once again, look out. And if that growth rate accelerates again, which it seems impossible, but I thought it was kind of impossible last time and they did it anyways. Guess what? This run may very well have more legs going into it coming into the end of the year here, because everybody's trying to get their bonus up as high as possible. And that sort of performance, it's just really, really hard to argue with. We'll come back down to earth at some point in time. Of course it will. But in that short term, whoo, man, could very well give us some more legs in So what am I doing personally? And what would I do as a newer investor? All right. I told you guys, I'm going to give you my plan and what to do as a newer investor. But let's discuss the price of Palantir and all the noise around it everywhere to kind of help you frame what I'm going to do. I can't seem to avoid it. And I hate these types of discussions, but let's address it anyways, because everybody has a price prediction for Palantir where it's going next. But to be clear upfront, you cannot time the market. Nobody can time the market and nobody knows where this price is going. And I'm still seeing many making, you know, 5,732 different price predictions a day on stocks, including Palantir and others telling me what predictions I've made in the past. And I haven't made any in regards to Palantir at all. I've always said, and I continue to say that on this channel, I'll give you guys exactly the price that I want to buy more shares at as I have a full position, plus bonus shares, plus bonus shares upon bonus shares. And you're right. Back in the day, that price was anything under 10 bucks that we got that pricing for a long time. Last year, it was anything under 30 or 40 dollars or so right up in that range. And guess what? We got that last year as well. So, of course, my price target is low, but I'm not building out a position. I already have a massive one. And if you don't have a position built out, we're going to discuss that here in just a second, guys, I promise. But when you already have a full position built out, I can afford to be very, very selective with the pricing that I want to add shares to. Now, having said that, I have no idea how anyone can keep up with all this guesswork that everybody's doing, all these pretty charts and graphs and everything else, much less effectively execute a plan or even come up with a plan to execute to all that guesswork, all those pretty charts and graphs never work out over the long run. So maybe traders. Sure. I'm not talking about trading, but if you're a long term buy and hold investor, what happens tomorrow is not really your concern. What happens on earnings in regards to stock price is not your concern, since nobody knows what will happen with any degree of accuracy. So what is the point in making any short term price predictions? Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch and all the greats say they can't do it. Why would I bother doing that as well? It makes no sense. So that means if you were worried about what Palantir will do tomorrow or, you know, figuring out what's going to happen on earnings and how the stock's going to move or guessing price movements based upon what the Fed says or buying and selling based upon these recession indicators or crash indicators or anything else like that, then you are basically short term speculating or trying to time the market in the end. Guys, you can phrase it however you want, but that is what you are doing and nobody can do it with any degree of accuracy over the long run. And I understand I've been there, done that before, thought I knew lots of it. I think every investor goes through that journey. I really, really got a good feel for where this price is going, where that price is going. It is all fool's gold in the end. That is why having your plan set before the earnings call is key. I know many of you guys hate that I say it, but planning and having price targets is key to investing. So for me, in my situation, I am simply setting back, watching the numbers and then watching what Wall Street does. But more importantly, I'm looking to see if they make any adjustments to guidance so I know exactly how overvalued Palantir is and I can do that to give me a valuation. By any metric, it is overvalued right now and that's okay. Again, my job is not to time the market, it's just simply to buy prudently and understand where that valuation is. Palantir seems to continue to have unlimited demand, growth rates continue to accelerate and other positive things that tell me the valuation will continue to come down based upon performance if the stock price stays the same. Then we might get closer to that fair value, but that also doesn't mean that Wall Street can't keep pumping it up either and keep it solidly in overvalued territory. But you guys know I hate to speculate, so I'm not going to sit around and create little charts and graphs and everything else and then use it to make it seem like I have some magical way of giving you guys a number that aren't anything beyond pure speculation. Because that is simply fool's gold and in fact, just pure speculation. I don't know how to put that, it is pure speculation. So for me, unless we get an increase in guidance, I don't see a point in increasing my buy point would be for Palantir. But what do you do if you guys are looking to build out a new position? You don't own any Palantir, you're looking to build out a position in Palantir. Maybe you own some, but you don't really have that big position you want. Yeah, I got 25% of the position you want, you know, whatever the number is. How do you build that out? Now obviously, if you're looking to build out a position, then your plan will need to be very different than mine is. That's why following others on X or on YouTube or myself or anybody else is so dangerous because my price target I want to buy at can only reflect my situation, my conviction, my risk tolerance, my plan, my portfolio makeup, my goals, and on and on and on. It can't reflect yours and it won't reflect your answers to all of those questions plus more. So if I'm starting out today, like I've been saying for years on this channel with Palantir and any other stock that I cover, if I was starting today, I didn't own any shares or a very small amount, I wanted to build out a position in Palantir, I would simply DCA over the next few years. Listen to what I said there, DCA over the next few years. It is statistically hard to beat and then it doesn't really matter what the price does, you are buying in the end. And think about this for a second, look at what your average would if you had just basically done that strategy like we talked about before the previous three years and more importantly, more importantly than that, how many shares you would have. Share count is what matters in the end. And yes, price targets are a way that you can statistically beat a DCA, but you have to have done full due diligence, done a complete valuation and everything else involved to do that. And it is a very advanced strategy. If you're simply looking for price targets from others, you are better off DCAing until you get good at it and can do it on your own. That's the truth about the hype and that's not appropriate for everybody anyway, so just basically doing a straight DCA is exactly how I would do it. And if you're serious about getting that alpha and you want to have a full position in a stock like Palantir with an average way down the single digits and you want to work directly with me, make sure you take advantage of the fall frenzy sale that ends this weekend where you get direct access to me anytime you want. You get access to free courses, free coaching, be a part of the best six, seven and eight figure discord of members all helping you understand these things better. We put out three, four, five videos a week and they're just simply for group members. Guys, there's so much discussion, so much learning that's happening on there. Make sure you take advantage all the fall frenzy sale before it ends this weekend and click this video here. If you want to see exactly what I'm buying in this market and click here to see my exact plan for this market. So thanks for watching and we'll see you in the next one.